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Agile Metrics : Velocity is NOT the Goal - NDC Oslo 2014
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Agile Metrics : Velocity is NOT the Goal - NDC Oslo 2014

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Velocity is one of the most common metrics used-and one of the most commonly misused-on agile projects. Velocity is simply a measurement of speed in a given direction-the rate at which a team is …

Velocity is one of the most common metrics used-and one of the most commonly misused-on agile projects. Velocity is simply a measurement of speed in a given direction-the rate at which a team is delivering toward a product release. As with a vehicle en route to a particular destination, increasing the speed may appear to ensure a timely arrival. However, that assumption is dangerous because it ignores the risks with higher speeds. And while it’s easy to increase a vehicle’s speed, where exactly is the accelerator on a software team?

Michael “Doc" Norton walks us through the Hawthorne Effect and Goodhart’s Law to explain why setting goals for velocity can actually hurt a project's chances. Take a look at what can negatively impact velocity, ways to stabilize fluctuating velocity, and methods to improve velocity without the risks. Leave with a toolkit of additional metrics that, coupled with velocity, give a better view of the project's overall health.

Published in: Software, Technology, Business
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  • 1. Velocity Is NOT the Goal Michael “Doc” Norton :: Groupon :: @DocOnDev Agile Metrics
  • 2. Velocity Is NOT the Goal Agile Metrics Doc Norton! Global Director of Engineering Culture! doc@groupon.com | @DocOnDev
  • 3. Velocity Is NOT the Goal Michael “Doc” Norton :: Groupon :: @DocOnDev Agile Metrics
  • 4. Velocity Is NOT the Goal
  • 5. Velocity
  • 6. Velocity
  • 7. What’s Velocity?
  • 8. Work Units / Time
  • 9. Lagging Indicator
  • 10. Measure of a Complex System
  • 11. Lagging Indicator for a Complex System
  • 12. A Tale of Two Velocities
  • 13. A 10, 11, 9, 10 B 7, 14, 6, 10 Disclaimer
  • 14. A 10, 11, 9, 10 Yesterday’s Weather: 10 B 7, 14, 6, 10 Yesterday’s Weather: 10
  • 15. A 10, 11, 9, 10 Yesterday’s Weather: 10 Rolling Average: 10 B 7, 14, 6, 10 Yesterday’s Weather: 10 Rolling Average: 10
  • 16. A 10, 11, 9, 10 Yesterday’s Weather: 10 Rolling Average: 10 Std. Deviation: 0.7 B 7, 14, 6, 10 Yesterday’s Weather: 10 Rolling Average: 10 Std. Deviation: 3.1
  • 17. A 10, 11, 9, 10 Yesterday’s Weather: 10 Rolling Average: 10 Std. Deviation: 0.7 Next: 9.3-10.7 B 7, 14, 6, 10 Yesterday’s Weather: 10 Rolling Average: 10 Std. Deviation: 3.1 Next: 6.9-13.1
  • 18. The Need for Speed
  • 19. The Hawthorn Effect
  • 20. That which is measured, will improve
  • 21. That which is measured, will improve ... at a cost
  • 22. Goodhart’s Law
  • 23. When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure
  • 24. Perverse Incentives
  • 25. ... an unintended result, contrary to interests of the incentive makers
  • 26. Dr. Deming “What matters is not setting quantitative goals but fixing the method by which those goals are attained”
  • 27. What causes variable Velocity?
  • 28. Time Poorly Spent
  • 29. Dependency on Other Teams
  • 30. Poor Story Composition
  • 31. Too Much Work In Progress
  • 32. Scatter Diagrams
  • 33. 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 2 4 6 8 Scatter Diagrams Auto Prices by Year
  • 34. 0 12.5 25 37.5 50 0 25 50 75 100 Scatter Diagrams Velocity by Complexity
  • 35. 0 12.5 25 37.5 50 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 Scatter Diagrams Velocity by Value
  • 36. 0 12.5 25 37.5 50 0 22.5 45 67.5 90 Scatter Diagrams Velocity by Coverage
  • 37. “Friedman’s Thermostat”
  • 38. Correlation is not causation
  • 39. Correlation is not causation but it sure is a hint
  • 40. Cumulative Flow Diagrams
  • 41. Backlog
  • 42. Cumulative Flow Diagram
  • 43. 0 5 10 15 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Velocity Chart
  • 44. Same Different Perspective Team & Data
  • 45. CFD 0 25 50 75 100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Deployed Ready for Approval In Testing In Progress Ready To Start
  • 46. Measure Many Things
  • 47. Measure Many Things 0 4 8 12 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Velocity
  • 48. Measure Many Things 0 12.5 25 37.5 50 0 4 8 12 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Velocity Quality
  • 49. Measure Many Things 0 12.5 25 37.5 50 0 4 8 12 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Velocity Quality Avg. Hours
  • 50. Measure Many Things 0 12.5 25 37.5 50 0 4 8 12 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Velocity Quality Avg. Hours Team Joy
  • 51. Real World Examples
  • 52. Application Performance
  • 53. Velocity w/Std. Deviation
  • 54. Burn w/Std. Deviation
  • 55. Cumulative Flow
  • 56. Team Joy
  • 57. Department Joy
  • 58. One Last Thing
  • 59. Metrics are not for Managers
  • 60. Metrics are for Teams
  • 61. Velocity Is NOT the Goal Agile Metrics Doc Norton! Global Director of Engineering Culture! doc@groupon.com | @DocOnDev

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