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The ryan budget

The ryan budget






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    The ryan budget The ryan budget Document Transcript

    • TABLE  OF  CONTENTSStatement  of  Constitutional  and  Legal  Authority  .....................................................4A  Contrast  in  Visions  ..............................................................................................5Introduction  By  House  Budget  Committee  Chairman  Paul  Ryan   ................................7I. A  Blueprint  for  American  Renewal  ................................................................11II. Providing  for  the  Common  Defense  ..............................................................17III. Restoring  Economic  Freedom  ......................................................................23IV. Repairing  the  Social  Safety  Net  ....................................................................35V. Strengthening  Health  and  Retirement  Security   ............................................45VI. Pro-­‐Growth  Tax  Reform  ...............................................................................57VII. Changing  Washington’s  Culture  of  Spending  .................................................69VIII. Lifting  the  Crushing  Burden  of  Debt  .............................................................75Appendix  I:  Summary  Tables  .................................................................................87Appendix  II:  Reprioritizing  Sequester  Savings  ........................................................93
    • STATEMENT  OF  CONSTITUTIONAL  AND  LEGAL  AUTHORITYArticle  I  of  the  U.S.  Constitution  grants  Congress  the  power  to  appropriate  funds  from  the  Treasury,  pay  the  obligations  of  and  raise  revenue  for  the  federal  government,  and  publish  statements  and  accounts  of  all  financial  transactions.  In  addition,  the  Congressional  Budget  and  Impoundment  Act  of  1974  requires  Congress  to  write  a  budget  each  year  representing  its  plan  to  carry  out  these  transactions  in  the  forthcoming  fiscal  years.  While  the  President  is  required  to  propose  his  administration’s  budget  requests  for  Congress’s  consideration,  Congress  alone  is  responsible  for  writing  the  laws  that  raise  revenues,  appropriate  funds,  and  prioritize  taxpayer  dollars  within  an  overall  federal  budget.The  budget  resolution  is  the  only  legislative  vehicle  that  views  government  comprehensively.  It  provides  the  framework  for  the  consideration  of  other  legislation.  Ultimately,  a  budget  is  much  more  than  series  of  numbers.  It  also  serves  as  an  expression  of  Congress’s  principles,  vision,  and  philosophy  of  governing.This  budget,  submitted  to  the  U.S.  House  of  Representatives  for  fiscal  year  2013  and  beyond,  builds  upon  the  budget  that  was  written  and  passed  by  the  House  last  year.  Like  last  year’s  budget,  it  is  offered  on  time,  in  accordance  with  the  1974  Budget  Act,  out  of  respect  for  the  law  and  in  order  that  the  public  be  given  a  timely  and  transparent  accounting  of  government’s  work.Like  last  year’s  budget,  it  is  committed  to  the  timeless  principles  enshrined  in  the  U.S.  Constitution  –  liberty,  limited  government,  and  equality  under  the  rule  of  law.And  like  last  year’s  budget,  it  seeks  to  guide  the  nation’s  policies  by  those  principles,  freeing  it  from  the  crushing  burden  of  debt  now  threatening  its  future.  This  budget  is  submitted,  as  prescribed  by  law,  to  clarify  the  challenges  and  the  choices  facing  the  American  people,  provide  a  blueprint  for  the  orderly  execution  of  Congress’s  constitutional  duties,  and  describe  a  path  forward  that  renews  the  promise  of  this  exceptional  nation.  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       4
    • A  CONTRAST  IN  VISIONS The  President’s  Budget The  Path  to  Prosperity Spending Net  $1.5  trillion  increase  relative  to   Cuts  spending  by  $5  trillion  relative  to  President’s   current  policy budget Taxes Imposes  a  $1.9  trillion  tax  increase;   Prevents  President’s  tax  increases;   Adds  new  complexity  and  new  hurdles   Reforms  broken  tax  code  to  make  it  simple,  fair,   for  hardworking  taxpayers,  making  it   and  competitive;  clears  out  special  interest   more  difficult  to  expand  opportunity loopholes  and  lowers  everybody’s  tax  rates  to   promote  growth Deficits Four  straight  trillion-­‐dollar  deficits;   Brings  deficits  below  3  percent  of  GDP  by  2015;   Breaks  promise  to  cut  deficit  in  half  by   Reduces  deficits  by  over  $3  trillion  relative  to   end  of  first  term;  Budget  never  balances President’s  budget;  Puts  budget  on  path  to   balance Debt Adds  $11  trillion  to  the  debt  –  increasing   Reduces  debt  as  a  share  of  the  economy  over  the   debt  as  a  share  of  the  economy  –  over   next  decade;  Charts  a  sustainable  trajectory  by   the  next  decade;  Imposes  $200,000  debt   reforming  the  drivers  of  the  debt;  Pays  off  the   burden  per  household;  Debt  skyrockets   debt  over  time in  the  years  ahead Size  of  Government Size  of  government  never  falls  below  23   Brings  size  of  government  to  20  percent  of   percent  of  the  economy,  making  it  more   economy  by  2015,  allowing  the  private  sector  to   difficult  to  expand  opportunity grow  and  create  jobs National  Security Slashes  defense  spending  by  nearly  $500   Prioritizes  national  security  by  preventing  deep,   billion;  Threatens  additional  cuts  by   indiscriminate  cuts  to  defense;  Identifies  strategy-­‐ refusing  to  specify  plan  of  action  to   driven  savings,  while  funding  defense  at  levels   address  the  sequester;  Forces  troops   that  keep  America  safe  by  providing  $554  billion   and  military  families  to  pay  the  price  for   for  the  next  fiscal  year  for  national  defense   Washington’s  refusal  to  address  drivers   spending of  debt Health  Security Doubles  down  on  health  care  law,   Repeals  President’s  health  care  law;  Advances   allowing  government  bureaucrats  to   bipartisan  solutions  that  take  power  away  from   interfere  with  patient  care;  Empowers   government  bureaucrats  and  put  patients  in   an  unaccountable  board  of  15  unelected   control;  No  disruption  for  those  in  or  near   bureaucrats  to  cut  Medicare  in  ways  that   retirement;  Ensures  a  strengthened  Medicare   result  in  restricted  access  and  denied   program  for  future  generations,  with  less  support   care  for  current  seniors,  and  a  bankrupt   given  to  the  wealthy  and  more  assistance  for  the   future  for  the  next  generation poor  and  the  sickHouse  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       5
    • House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       6
    • INTRODUCTION By  House  Budget  Committee  Chairman  Paul  RyanThis  budget  offers  a  blueprint  for  safeguarding  America  from  the  perils  of  debt,  doubt  and  decline.  Americans,  not  Washington,  deserve  to  choose  the  path  their  nation  takes,  and  this  budget  presents  a  clear  choice  between  the  bleak  future  toward  which  the  nation  is  currently  headed  and  the  prosperous  future  that  Americans  can  build  together  with  a  government  that  is  limited  and  effective.  Effective  government  is  impossible  without  limits.  It  is  no  surprise  that  trust  in  government  has  reached  all-­‐time  lows  as  the  size  of  government  has  reached  all-­‐time  highs.  The  Founders  put  limits  on  government  because  they  understood  the  limits  of  government.  In  James  Madison’s  formulation,  “If  men  were  angels,  no  government  would  be  necessary.  And  if  angels  were  to  govern  men,  neither  external  nor  internal  controls  on  government  would  be  necessary.”  As  Madison  reminded  us,  men  are  no  angels,  and  government  is  “administered  by  men  over  men.”  The  Founders  met  this  challenge  by  designing  a  Constitution  of  enumerated  powers,  giving  the  federal  government  broad  authority  over  only  those  matters  that  must  have  a  single  national  response,  while  sharply  restricting  its  authority  to  intrude  on  those  spheres  of  activity  better  left  to  the  states  and  the  people.  The  first  responsibility  of  the  federal  government  is  the  safety  and  security  of  all  Americans.  Today,  the  men  and  women  of  the  U.S.  military  valiantly  devote  themselves  to  protecting  American  lives  and  liberty.  Peace  at  home  is  only  possible  when  America  is  strong.  When  America  shrinks  from  her  commitments  to  her  allies  and  her  duties  to  her  citizens,  her  enemies  are  emboldened  and  her  ideals  are  diminished.  This  overarching  governmental  responsibility  –  securing  the  inherent  rights  of  all  Americans  to  life,  liberty,  and  the  pursuit  of  happiness  –  is  the  principle  and  the  purpose  that  informs  this  entire  federal  budget.The  federal  government  also  has  a  critical  role  to  play  in  safeguarding  the  free-­‐enterprise  system,  so  that  fraud  is  punished,  success  is  rewarded,  and  the  rules  are  not  rigged  against  the  small  businessman,  the  innovator,  or  the  worker.  In  Abraham  Lincoln’s  words,  the  true  object  of  government  should  be  “to  clear  the  paths  of  laudable  pursuit  for  all,”  so  that  all  may  have  the  same  opportunity  to  rise.  The  federal  government  can  help  provide  a  strong  safety  net  for  Americans  who,  through  no  fault  of  their  own,  have  fallen  on  hard  times.  But  government  can  never  replace  the  core  institutions  of  a  vibrant  civil  society  –  families,  neighbors,  churches  and  charities.  Aimed  first  and  foremost  at  buttressing  these  institutions,  government  reforms  should  promote  upward  mobility  and  secure  opportunity,  especially  for  society’s  most  vulnerable.  Over  the  past  century,  the  American  people  have  sought  to  furnish  a  strong  and  stable  base  of  health  and  retirement  security  for  working  families.  In  a  free  society  built  on  entrepreneurial  risk-­‐taking  and  hard  work,  such  protection  provides  insurance  against  the  vagaries  of  life.  But  when  government  mismanagement  and  political  cowardice  turn  this  element  of  the  social  contract  into  an  empty  promise,  seniors  are  threatened  with  denied  access  to  care  and  the  next  generation  is  threatened  with  a  debt  that  destroys  its  hard-­‐earned  prosperity.  Both  consequences  would  violate  President  Lyndon  B.  Johnson’s  pledge  upon  signing  the  Medicare  law:  “No  longer  will  older  Americans  be  denied  the  healing  miracle  of  modern  medicine…  No  longer  will  young  families  see  their  own  incomes,  and  their  own  hopes,  eaten  away  simply  because  they  are  carrying  out  their  deep  moral  obligations  to  their  parents,  and  to  their  uncles,  and  their  aunts.”  To  fulfill  Johnson’s  pledge  in  the  21st  century,  America’s  generations-­‐old  health  and  retirement  security  programs  must  be  saved  and  strengthened.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       7
    • The  federal  government  has  the  power  to  raise  revenue  so  that  it  can  effectively  carry  out  those  missions  entrusted  to  it  by  its  citizens.  But  when  taxation  is  carried  to  injurious  excess  to  fund  activities  outside  the  proper  sphere  of  government,  it  not  only  harms  the  general  welfare,  but  also  suppresses  revenue  itself.  As  Alexander  Hamilton  –  whose  fiscal  plan  brought  national  prosperity  while  eliminating  America’s  first  federal  debt  –  once  observed,  “the  most  productive  system  of  finance  will  always  be  the  least  burdensome.”Finally,  the  federal  government  has  an  obligation  to  all  Americans  to  account  for  the  spending,  taxing,  and  borrowing  that  it  undertakes  in  their  names.  But  when  the  federal  budgeting  process  is  ignored,  government  spends  haphazardly,  without  priorities  or  the  transparency  on  which  democracy  depends.In  each  of  these  core  areas,  the  unchecked  growth  of  government  has  degraded  its  effectiveness  and  rendered  its  institutions  incapable  of  meeting  the  challenges  of  the  21st  Century. • The  U.S.  military  faces  a  three-­‐fold  threat:  an  abatement  of  America’s  commitment  to  defend  its  interests   abroad,  a  slow  economy,  and  an  uncontrolled  debt  burden  that  weakens  America  from  within  by  eroding   resources  for  national  defense; • The  free  enterprise  system  is  being  stifled  by  a  federal  bureaucracy  fixated  on  depriving  citizens  and  businesses   of  their  ability  to  make  social  and  economic  decisions  according  to  what  is  best  for  their  own  needs  and   interests.   • The  social  safety  net  is  failing  society’s  most  vulnerable  citizens  and  poised  to  unravel  in  the  event  of  a   spending-­‐driven  debt  crisis,  which  is  precisely  when  Americans  would  need  it  most;   • The  future  of  the  nation’s  health  and  retirement  security  programs  is  increasingly  based  on  empty  promises   from  a  government  unwilling  to  advance  solutions  that  save  and  strengthen  them; • The  tax  code  has  become  a  broken  maze  of  complexity  and  political  favoritism;  it  is  overgrown  with  special-­‐ interest  loopholes  and  characterized  by  high  rates,  both  of  which  stifle  economic  growth  and  job  creation;  and • The  federal  budget  process  has  collapsed,  allowing  government  to  spend  recklessly  and  throw  tax  dollars  at   problems  on  an  ad  hoc  basis  as  the  nation’s  fiscal  hole  grows  deeper.The  good  news  is  that  solutions  to  these  problems  are  more  attainable  today  than  they  have  been  in  years:  There  is  an  emerging  consensus  –  led  by  citizens  across  the  nation  and  reformers  across  the  political  spectrum  –  that  is  well  aware  of  the  danger.  This  consensus  rejects  politicians  who  focus  on  dividing  Americans  for  political  gain.  Instead,  it  supports  bold  reforms  that  bring  Americans  together  to  build  upon  the  solid  foundations  of  security  and  liberty  that  have  made  this  nation  exceptional: • A  military  that  keeps  America  safe  by  letting  national  strategic  priorities  determine  spending  levels,  not  the   other  way  around; • A  free  enterprise  system  that  is  reinvigorated,  with  bureaucracy  restrained,  the  rule  of  law  restored,  and   cronyism  and  corporate  welfare  eliminated; • A  safety  net  that  directs  assistance  to  those  who  need  it  most,  provides  greater  incentives  to  work  and  save,   and  strengthens  programs  aimed  at  job  training  and  helping  Americans  get  back  on  their  feet; • Health  and  retirement  programs  that  avert  the  sharp  disruptions  to  come  as  a  result  of  the  President’s  policies,   protect  key  commitments  to  seniors,  and  provide  greater  choices,  better  health,  and  real  security  for  future   generations; • A  tax  code  that  fosters  growth  and  job  creation  by  lowering  rates  and  getting  rid  of  special-­‐interest  loopholes   that  mainly  benefit  the  politically  well-­‐connected,  distort  economic  growth,  and  encode  unfairness  in  tax  law;   and • A  budget  process  that  restrains  government  spending  and  restores  certainty  by  forcing  policymakers  to  provide   solutions  for  the  nation’s  fiscal  future.This  nation  has  faced  many  tests  in  its  history  –  moments  in  time  when  the  very  idea  of  America  was  threatened  by  crises  at  home  and  abroad.  Each  time,  Americans  rejected  radical  proposals  to  remake  this  exceptional  nation  in  the  image  of  less-­‐free  nations  abroad.  Instead,  principled  leaders  and  brave  citizens  rose  to  meet  the  difficulties  they  faced  by  applying  the  nation’s  enduring  founding  principles  to  the  challenges  of  their  times.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       8
    • Today,  America  is  struggling  to  recover  from  a  great  recession.  Her  people’s  liberties  are  endangered  by  unwarranted  expansions  of  government.  And  she  is  threatened  by  a  rising  tide  of  debt  at  home  and  fierce  enemies  abroad.  But  as  the  challenge  grows,  so  does  the  opportunity  to  restore  America’s  promise  and  prosperity.  In  the  words  of  Winston  Churchill,  this  generation  has  the  opportunity  "to  rejoice  in  the  responsibilities  with  which  destiny  has  honored  us…  and  be  proud  that  we  are  guardians  of  our  country  in  an  age  when  her  life  is  at  stake."  We  must  not  let  this  opportunity  slip  away.  This  budget  serves  as  a  blueprint  for  American  renewal.  Its  principled  reforms  empower  individuals  with  greater  control  over  their  futures.  It  places  great  faith  in  the  wisdom  of  the  Founders  and  promises  to  renew  confidence  in  the  superiority  of  human  freedom.  The  choice  of  two  futures  presented  in  this  budget  is  premised  on  the  wisdom  of  the  American  people  to  build  a  prosperous  future  for  themselves  and  for  generations  of  Americans  to  come. Paul  Ryan Chairman  of  the  House  Budget  Committee Member  of  Congress,  First  District  of  Wisconsin March  20,  2012House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       9
    • House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       10
    • A  BLUEPRINT  FOR  AMERICAN  RENEWAL A  Nation  ChallengedThe  challenges  this  nation  faces  are  among  the  largest  in  its  history.  For  years,  bad  policies  advanced  by  both  political  parties  have  contributed  to  an  irresponsible  build-­‐up  of  debt  in  the  economy,  and  this  debt  now  poses  a  fundamental  challenge  to  the  American  way  of  life.  This  build-­‐up  of  debt  has  manifested  its  effects  in  both  the  private  and  public  sectors.  In  2008,  excessive  leverage  in  the  financial  sector  overwhelmed  many  banks,  businesses  and  families.  Irresponsible  decisions  in  Washington  and  on  Wall  Street  fueled  a  housing-­‐price  bubble  that  collapsed  and  turned  mortgage-­‐backed  securities  into  “toxic  assets.”  It  soon  became  clear  that  these  assets,  which  were  spread  throughout  the  financial  sector,  posed  a  systemic  risk  to  the  economy.  The  resulting  wave  of  panics,  bankruptcies  and  foreclosures  brought  the  global  financial  system  to  the  brink  of  collapse.America  is  still  living  with  the  painful  consequences  of  that  crisis  today.  While  some  of  the  federal  government’s  emergency  actions  in  late  2008  helped  to  stem  the  immediate  financial  crisis,  much  of  its  intervention  in  the  wake  of  the  crisis  simply  aggravated  the  underlying  problems.  In  most  cases,  policymakers  sought  to  address  the  symptoms  of  the  crisis  by  transferring  private-­‐sector  debt  to  the  public  balance  sheet.  Since  Election  Day  2008,  debt  held  by  the  public  has  increased  by  roughly  $4.5  trillion  –  an  increase  in  excess  of  70  percent  in  a  mere  four  years.  This  remedy  didn’t  just  ignore  the  underlying  cause  of  the  problem  –  it  made  the  problem  far  worse.  In  Europe,  the  accumulation  of  public-­‐sector  debt  now  threatens  to  cause  an  even  bigger  calamity  than  the  one  caused  by  private-­‐sector  debt  in  2008.  The  world’s  new  “toxic  asset”  is  the  sovereign  debt  of  irresponsible  European  governments,  infecting  the  balance  sheets  of  major  banks  and  threatening  the  stability  of  the  global  economy.  And  in  the  United  States,  government  debt  continues  to  rise  at  a  frightening  pace,  raising  fears  that  a  similar  crisis  may  happen  here.  The  growing  possibility  of  such  a  crisis  is  creating  debilitating  uncertainty  about  the  future,  hurting  job  creation  and  economic  growth  today.  The  economy  has  picked  up  in  recent  quarters,  but  overall  growth  and  job  creation  remain  sub-­‐par,  and  unprecedented  numbers  of  Americans  have  simply  given  up  trying  to  find  work. Real  GDP  grew  by  just  1.7  percent  in  2011,  and  private-­‐sector  forecasters  are  calling  for  growth  of  2.3  percent  in  2012  –  well  below  the  3.0  percent  historical  trend  rate  of  U.S.  growth  and  just  a  fraction  of  the  growth  pace  observed  in  a  typical  recovery  from  recession.  Noted  economists,  including  Federal  Reserve  Chairman  Ben  Bernanke,  have  argued  that  enacting  a  credible  plan  to  deal  with  America’s  long-­‐term  debt  build-­‐up  would  have  a  positive  effect  on  growth  and  jobs  immediately.1  1  For  more  detail,  see  “Debt  as  an  Impediment  to  Growth”  on  page  74  of  this  report.  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       11
    • Unfortunately,  in  the  years  following  the  meltdown,  the  President  and  his  party’s  leaders  failed  to  use  their  full  control  of  Washington  to  offer  any  plan  to  lift  the  debt  and  foster  sustainable  economic  growth.  Instead,  the  crisis  was  used  as  an  excuse  to  enact  unprecedented  and  counterproductive  expansions  of  government  power.  A  massive  stimulus  package  failed  to  deliver  promised  reductions  in  unemployment.  An  unpopular  health  care  takeover  was  jammed  through  Congress  on  a  party-­‐line  vote.  A  short-­‐sighted  financial-­‐regulatory  overhaul  failed  to  fix  what  was  broken  on  Wall  Street  and  made  future  bailouts  more  likely.  And  federal  policymakers  in  thrall  to  a  misguided  form  of  environmental  activism  pushed  through  regulations  and  other  policies  that  are  making  energy  more  expensive  in  the  midst  of  a  weak  economy.  Through  it  all,  the  government’s  fiscal  position  sharply  deteriorated.  Total  federal  debt  has  now  surpassed  the  size  of  the  entire  U.S.  economy.  And  the  government’s  non-­‐partisan  auditors  have  issued  report  after  report  warning  of  even  larger  debts  to  come,  driven  by  health  and  retirement  security  programs  that  are  being  weakened  by  severe  demographic  and  economic  challenges.  Instead  of  taking  action,  the  administration  punted  the  nation’s  fiscal  problems  to  a  bipartisan  commission,  whose  recommendations  it  proceeded  to  ignore  in  favor  of  proposals  filled  with  gimmicks  instead  of  real  solutions.  And  the  Democratic  leaders  of  the  Senate  have  abandoned  altogether  their  legal  obligation  to  provide  a  budget  plan  –  it  has  been  three  years  since  the  Senate  passed  a  budget.   A  Choice  of  Two  FuturesBoth  parties  share  the  blame  for  failing  to  take  action  over  the  years.  But  while  Republicans  offered  a  budget  last  year  that  would  lift  the  crushing  burden  of  debt  and  restore  economic  growth,  the  President  and  his  party’s  leaders  are  still  refusing  to  take  seriously  the  urgent  need  to  advance  credible  solutions  to  the  looming  fiscal  crisis.  Instead,  they  are  still  offering  little  more  than  false  attacks  and  failed  leadership.  Questioned  about  this  disappointing  reality  at  a  recent  House  Budget  Committee  hearing,  Treasury  Secretary  Timothy  Geithner  admitted,  “We’re  not  coming  before  you  to  say  we  have  a  definitive  solution  to  our  long-­‐term  problem.  What  we  do  know  is  we  don’t  like  yours.”2  The  President’s  strategy  seems  to  amount  to  this:  Let  somebody  else  propose  a  path  forward,  and  then  attack  them  for  political  gain.This  budget  offers  a  better  path.  The  following  report  lays  out  the  challenge  –  and  the  choice  –  that  America  faces  in  each  key  area  of  the  budget.  The  common  thread  connecting  them  all  is  that  a  sharp  and  sudden  debt  crisis  would  threaten  the  entire  American  project:  It  would  weaken  national  security,  shred  the  safety  net  that  vulnerable  Americans  rely  on,  break  promises  to  seniors,  impose  massive  tax  increases  on  families,  and  leave  all  Americans  with  a  diminished  future.This  looming  crisis  represents  an  enormous  challenge,  but  it  also  represents  a  defining  choice:  whether  to  continue  down  the  path  of  debt,  doubt  and  decline,  or  put  the  nation  back  on  the  path  to  prosperity.  It  also  represents  a  tremendous  opportunity  for  this  generation  of  Americans  to  rise  to  the  challenge,  as  previous  generations  have,  and  fulfill  this  nation’s  unique  legacy  of  leaving  future  generations  with  a  freer,  more  prosperous  America. A  Blueprint  for  American  RenewalThis  budget  sets  forth  a  model  of  government  guided  by  the  timeless  principles  of  the  American  Idea:  free  enterprise  and  economic  liberty;  limited  government  and  spending  restraint;  traditional  family  and  community  values;  and  a  strong  national  defense.The  federal  government  has  strayed  from  these  American  principles.  This  budget  offers  a  set  of  fundamental  reforms  to  put  the  nation  back  on  the  right  track.  2  Timothy  Geithner,  Testimony  before  the  U.S.  House,  Committee  on  the  Budget,  The  President’s  Fiscal  Year  2013  Budget:  Revenue  and  Economic  Policy  Proposals,  February  16,  2012.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       12
    • The  role  of  the  federal  government  is  both  vital  and  limited.  When  government  takes  on  too  many  tasks,  it  usually  does  not  do  any  of  them  very  well.  Limited  government  also  means  effective  government.  This  budget  recommits  the  federal  government  to  the  security  of  every  American  citizen’s  natural  right  to  life,  liberty  and  the  pursuit  of  happiness,  while  fostering  an  environment  for  economic  growth  and  private-­‐sector  job  creation.1. Prioritize  Defense  Spending  to  Keep  America  SafeWith  American  men  and  women  in  uniform  currently  engaged  with  a  fierce  enemy  and  dealing  with  emerging  threats  around  the  world,  this  budget  takes  several  steps  to  ensure  that  national  security  remains  government’s  top  priority.  Providing  for  the  common  defense:  This  budget  rejects  proposals  to  make  thoughtless,  across-­‐the-­‐board  cuts  in  funding  for  national  defense.  Instead,  it  provides  $554  billion  for  national  defense  spending,  an  amount  that  is  consistent  with  America’s  military  goals  and  strategies.  This  budget  preserves  necessary  defense  spending  to  protect  vital  national  interests  today  and  ensures  future  real  growth  in  defense  spending  to  modernize  the  armed  forces  for  the  challenges  of  tomorrow.  Reprioritizing  sequester  savings  to  protect  the  nation’s  security:    The  defense  budget  is  slated  to  be  cut  by  $55  billion,  or  10  percent,  in  January  of  2013  through  the  sequester  mechanism  enacted  as  part  of  the  Budget  Control  Act  of  2011.3  This  reduction  would  be  on  top  of  the  $487  billion  in  cuts  over  ten  years  proposed  in  President  Obama’s  budget.  This  budget  eliminates  these  additional  cuts  in  the  defense  budget  by  replacing  them  with  other  spending  reductions.    Spending  restraint  is  critical,  and  defense  spending  needs  to  be  executed  with  effectiveness  and  accountability.  But  government  should  take  care  to  ensure  that  spending  is  prioritized  according  to  the  nation’s  needs,  not  treated  indiscriminately  when  it  comes  to  making  cuts.  The  nation  has  no  higher  priority  than  safeguarding  the  safety  and  liberty  of  its  citizens  from  threats  at  home  and  abroad.  2. End  Cronyism  and  Restore  Free  EnterpriseA  growing  economy,  increased  employment  and  higher  wages  will  come  from  traditional  American  ingenuity  and  enterprise,  not  from  government.  To  achieve  this  end,  small  businesses  need  to  be  empowered,  and  the  size  and  scope  of  Washington  need  to  be  reduced  so  that  the  hard  work  and  enterprise  of  Americans  can  lead  a  strong,  sustained  recovery.Ending  corporate  welfare:  There  is  a  growing  and  pernicious  trend  of  government  overreach  into  the  private  economy  –  a  trend  that  stacks  the  deck  in  favor  of  entrenched  interests  and  stifles  growth.  This  budget  stops  Washington  from  picking  winners  and  losers  across  the  economy.  It  rolls  back  corporate  subsidies  in  the  energy  sector.  It  ends  the  taxpayer  bailouts  of  failed  financial  institutions,  including  Fannie  Mae  and  Freddie  Mac.  It  repeals  the  government  takeover  of  health  care  and  begins  to  move  toward  patient-­‐centered  reform.  And  it  reduces  the  bureaucracy’s  reach  by  applying  private-­‐sector  realities  to  the  federal  government’s  civilian  workforce.Boosting  American  energy  resources:  Too  great  a  percentage  of  America’s  vast  natural  resources  remain  locked  behind  bureaucratic  barriers  and  red  tape.  This  budget  lifts  moratoriums  on  safe,  responsible  energy  exploration  in  the  United  States,  ends  Washington  policies  that  drive  up  gas  prices,  and  unlocks  American  energy  production  to  help  lower  costs,  create  jobs  and  reduce  dependence  on  foreign  oil.Streamlining  other  government  agencies:  Domestic  government  agencies  have  grown  too  much  and  too  fast  over  the  past  decade,  and  much  of  their  funding  has  gone  to  harmful  programs  and  dead-­‐end  projects.  This  budget  starts  to  restore  spending  discipline.  It  builds  on  efforts  undertaken  last  year  to  contain  the  government’s  growth,  and  it  targets  hundreds  of  government  programs  that  have  outlived  their  usefulness.  3  For  more  details,  see  Appendix  II  of  this  report.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       13
    • 3. Strengthen  the  Social  Safety  Net  This  budget  builds  upon  the  historic  progress  of  bipartisan  welfare  reform  in  the  late  1990s.  It  strengthens  Medicaid,  food  stamps  and  job-­‐training  programs  by  providing  states  with  greater  flexibility  to  help  recipients  build  self-­‐sufficient  futures  for  themselves  and  their  families.Repairing  a  broken  Medicaid  system:  Medicaid’s  flawed  financing  structure  has  created  rapidly  rising  costs  that  are  nearly  impossible  to  check.  Mandate  upon  mandate  has  been  foisted  upon  states  under  the  flawed  premise  that  the  best  ideas  for  repairing  this  important  health  care  safety  net  can  come  only  from  Washington.  This  budget  ends  that  misguided  approach  and  instead  converts  the  federal  share  of  Medicaid  spending  into  a  block  grant,  thus  freeing  states  to  tailor  their  Medicaid  programs  to  the  unique  needs  of  their  own  populations.Prioritizing  assistance  for  those  in  need:  The  welfare  reforms  of  the  1990s,  despite  their  success,  were  never  extended  beyond  cash  welfare  to  other  means-­‐tested  programs.  This  budget  completes  the  successful  work  of  transforming  welfare  by  reforming  other  areas  of  America’s  safety  net  to  ensure  that  welfare  does  not  entrap  able-­‐bodied  citizens  into  lives  of  complacency  and  dependency.  Ensuring  educational  and  job-­‐training  opportunities  for  a  21st  century  economy:  The  government’s  well-­‐intentioned  approach  to  higher  education  and  job  training  in  America  has  failed  those  who  most  need  these  forms  of  assistance.  Federal  tuition  subsidies  are  often  captured  by  (and  to  a  certain  extent  drive)  rapidly  rising  tuition  costs  for  those  higher-­‐education  programs  that  should  be  the  first  rung  on  the  ladder  of  opportunity.  Meanwhile,  dozens  of  job-­‐training  programs  suffer  from  overlapping  responsibilities  and  too  often  lack  accountability.  This  budget  begins  to  address  the  problem  of  tuition  inflation  and  consolidates  a  complex  maze  of  dozens  of  job-­‐training  programs  into  more  accessible,  accountable  career  scholarships  aimed  at  empowering  American  workers  with  the  resources  they  need  to  pursue  their  dreams.4. Fulfill  the  Mission  of  Health  and  Retirement  SecurityThis  budget  puts  an  end  to  empty  promises  from  Washington,  offering  instead  real  security  through  real  reforms.  The  framework  established  in  this  budget  ensures  no  disruptions  to  existing  health  and  retirement  benefit  programs  for  those  beneficiaries  who  have  organized  their  retirements  around  them,  while  at  the  same  time  building  stronger  programs  that  future  beneficiaries  can  count  on  when  they  retire.Saving  Medicare:  Medicare  is  facing  an  unprecedented  fiscal  challenge.  Its  failed  reliance  on  bureaucratic  price  controls,  combined  with  rising  health  care  costs,  is  jeopardizing  seniors’  access  to  critical  care  and  threatening  to  bankrupt  the  system  –  and  ultimately  the  nation.  This  budget  saves  Medicare  by  fixing  flaws  in  its  structure  so  it  will  be  there  for  future  generations.  By  putting  these  solutions  in  place  now,  this  budget  ensures  that  changes  will  not  affect  those  in  and  near  retirement  in  any  way.  When  younger  workers  become  eligible  for  Medicare  a  decade  or  more  from  today,  they  will  be  able  to  choose  from  a  list  of  guaranteed  coverage  options,  including  a  traditional  Medicare  fee-­‐for-­‐service  plan.  This  flexibility  will  allow  seniors  to  enjoy  the  same  kind  of  choices  in  their  plans  that  members  of  Congress  enjoy.  Medicare  will  provide  a  payment  to  subsidize  the  cost  of  the  plan,  and  forcing  plans  to  compete  against  each  other  to  serve  the  patient  will  help  ensure  guaranteed  affordability.  In  addition,  Medicare  will  provide  increased  assistance  for  lower-­‐income  beneficiaries  and  those  with  greater  health  risks.  Reform  that  empowers  individuals  —  with  a  strengthened  safety  net  for  the  poor  and  the  sick  —  will  guarantee  that  Medicare  can  fulfill  the  promise  of  health  security  for  America’s  seniors.Advancing  Social  Security  solutions:  The  risk  to  Social  Security,  driven  by  demographic  changes,  is  nearer  at  hand  than  most  acknowledge.  This  budget  heads  off  a  crisis  by  calling  on  the  President  and  both  chambers  of  Congress  to  ensure  the  solvency  of  this  critical  program.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       14
    • 5. Enact  Pro-­‐Growth  Tax  ReformThis  budget  recognizes  that  the  nation’s  fiscal  health  requires  a  vibrant,  growing  private  sector.  It  charts  a  prosperous  path  forward  by  reforming  a  tax  code  that  is  overly  complex  and  unfair.  Individual  tax  reform:  The  current  code  for  individuals  is  too  complicated,  with  high  marginal  rates  that  discourage  hard  work  and  entrepreneurship.  This  budget  embraces  the  widely  acknowledged  principles  of  pro-­‐growth  tax  reform  by  proposing  to  consolidate  tax  brackets  and  lower  tax  rates,  with  just  two  rates  of  10  and  25  percent,  while  clearing  out  the  burdensome  tangle  of  loopholes  that  distort  economic  activity.Corporate  tax  reform:  American  businesses  are  overburdened  by  one  of  the  highest  corporate  income  tax  rates  in  the  developed  world.  The  perverse  incentives  created  by  the  corporate  income  tax  do  a  lot  of  damage  to  both  workers  and  investors,  yet  the  tax  itself  raises  relatively  little  revenue.  This  budget  improves  incentives  for  job  creators  to  work,  invest,  and  innovate  in  the  United  States  by  lowering  the  corporate  rate  from  35  percent  to  a  much  more  competitive  25  percent  and  by  shifting  to  a  territorial  system  that  will  ensure  a  level  playing  field  for  American  businesses.6. Change  Washington’s  Culture  of  SpendingAcross  the  political  spectrum,  experts  agree  that  the  budget  process  is  badly  broken  and  in  need  of  reform.  The  process  fails  to  control  spending,  fails  to  provide  adequate  oversight,  and  fails  to  allow  the  transparency  needed  for  accountability  to  the  nation’s  citizens.  Controlling  spending:  The  budget  process  in  Washington  contains  numerous  structural  flaws  that  bias  the  federal  government  toward  ever-­‐higher  levels  of  spending.  This  budget  would  lock  in  savings  with  enforceable  spending  caps  and  budget  process  reforms,  limiting  what  Washington  spends  and  how  tax  dollars  are  spent.Enhancing  oversight:  This  budget  gives  Congress  greater  tools  to  perform  oversight  over  wasteful  Washington  spending.  Increasing  Transparency:  This  budget  promotes  reforms  that  would  give  taxpayers  more  information  over  how  Washington  is  spending  their  hard-­‐earned  dollars.  7. Lift  the  Crushing  Burden  of  DebtThis  budget  charts  a  sustainable  path  forward,  ultimately  erases  the  budget  deficit  completely,  and  begins  paying  down  the  national  debt.  Americans  truly  face  a  monumental  choice  –  a  choice  that  can  no  longer  be  avoided.  The  Path  to  Prosperity  advances  the  serious  conversation  begun  last  year  about  the  future  of  this  exceptional  nation  and  the  fundamental  choices  Americans  must  soon  make  about  the  kind  of  nation  they  want  America  to  be.  This  budget  would  put  in  place  a  comprehensive  framework  to  address  the  nation’s  greatest  challenges.  It  provides  a  blueprint  for  the  actual  work  of  statecraft.  The  elected  representatives  of  the  American  people  –  in  the  House  of  Representatives,  in  the  Senate  and  in  the  White  House  –  now  must  take  up  this  budget  and  start  building  the  future  Americans  deserve.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       15
    • House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       16
    • PROVIDING  FOR  THE  COMMON  DEFENSE PROVIDING FOR THE COMMON DEFENSE KEY  POINTS The  safety  and  security  of  the  American  people  is  the  first  responsibility  of  the   federal  government. The  U.S.  military  is  threatened  by  an  uncontrolled  debt  burden  that  weakens   America  –  but  defense  spending  is  not  the  driver  of  that  debt  burden.   Despite  this  fact,  the  President’s  budget  refuses  to  address  runaway  entitlement   spending,  and  instead  imposes  nearly  $500  billion  in  defense  cuts  over  the  next   decade. This  budget  funds  defense  at  levels  that  keep  America  safe  by  providing  $554   billion  for  the  next  fiscal  year  -­‐  $6.2  trillion  over  the  next  decade  -­‐  for  national   defense  spending,  an  amount  that  is  consistent  with  America’s  military  goals  and   strategies. This  budget  replaces  the  indiscriminate  reduction  in  defense  spending  scheduled   to  take  place  under  the  sequester  with  targeted  reductions  in  non-­‐defense   mandatory  spending.  This  protects  defense  from  cuts  that  would  jeopardize   critical  missions  and  the  well-­‐being  of  soldiers  and  their  families.     America’s  troops  should  not  pay  the  price  for  Washington’s  failure  to  take  action.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       17
    •  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       18
    • PROVIDING  FOR  THE  COMMON  DEFENSE   The  Challenge:  A  Military  ThreatenedThe  first  job  of  government  is  to  secure  the  safety  and  liberty  of  its  citizens  from  threats  at  home  and  abroad.  Like  all  categories  of  government  spending,  defense  spending  should  be  executed  with  efficiency  and  accountability.  However,  because  it  is  the  first  responsibility  of  government,  the  national  defense  should  be  funded  based  on  strategic,  not  merely  budgetary,  calculations.  The  United  States  spends  a  great  deal  on  defense  in  nominal  terms,  but  defense  spending  is  shrinking  as  a  share  of  government  spending  and  as  a  share  of  the  national  economy.  The  share  of  the  nation’s  resources  devoted  to  defense  has  declined  from  its  Cold  War  average  of  7.5  percent  to  just  4.6  percent  today.  And  defense  spending  constituted  around  20  percent  of  federal  spending  in  fiscal  year  2011  –  below  the  25  percent  it  constituted  just  30  years  ago.  Defense’s  share  of  the  budget  is  projected  to  shrink  even  further  in  the  years  ahead  as  other  areas  of  the  budget  grow  to  unsupportable  levels.  This  category  of  spending  is  clearly  not  driving  the  unsustainable  fiscal  trajectory  that  is  threatening  the  nation’s  future. Simply  put,  America’s  dangerous  debt   trajectory  has  put  fiscal  policy  on  a   collision  course  with  her  national   security,  for  two  reasons.   First,  Figure  2  makes  it  very  clear  that,   absent  action,  Social  Security,   Medicare  and  Medicaid  will  soon  grow   to  consume  every  dollar  of  revenue   that  the  government  raises  in  taxes.  At   that  point,  policymakers  would  be  left   with  no  good  options.  Making  do   without  any  federal  government   departments,  including  the  military,  is   not  really  an  option  at  all,  and  neither  is   raising  taxes  to  a  level  that  no  free  and   prosperous  economy  could  sustain.   Of  course,  if  Congress  continues  to   ignore  the  drivers  of  the  debt,  it  will   lose  even  the  ability  to  make  such   choices  on  its  own  terms.  The  foreign  governments  and  institutional  lenders  that  finance  America’s  debt  would  cut  up  the  nation’s  credit  cards  before  things  got  that  far,  representing  a  sudden  and  severe  threat  to  the  nation’s  ability  to  defend  itself.  Second,  the  Budget  Control  Act  (BCA)  signed  into  law  last  year  created  an  automatic  sequester  process  to  force  $1.2  trillion  in  spending  reductions  over  ten  years  in  the  event  that  Congress  failed  to  produce  equivalent  reductions  through  a  specially  formed  Joint  Select  Committee  on  Deficit  Reduction  (JSCDR).  The  BCA  further  specifies  that,  after  accounting  for  reductions  in  debt-­‐service  costs,  a  total  of  $984  billion  in  net  spending  reductions  is  to  be  distributed  equally  among  defense  and  non-­‐defense  accounts  –  resulting  in  a  $492  billion  reduction  in  each.  To  put  this  in  perspective,  defense  constitutes  approximately  20  percent  of  total  federal  spending,  but  will  bear  50  percent  of  the  spending  reductions  through  sequestration.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       19
    • Because  the  JSCDR  failed  to  produce  a  bill,  the  sequester  is  scheduled  to  take  effect  beginning  in  January  of  2013.  While  the  sequester  serves  an  important  role  in  forcing  Congress  to  reduce  spending,  it  is  vital  that  those  spending  reductions  be  done  in  a  responsible  way.  Therefore,  policymakers  in  both  parties  agree  that  the  sequester  should  be  replaced  with  equivalent  deficit  reduction  to  ensure  that  the  national  defense  is  not  compromised.A  responsible  budget  must  recognize  that  the  United  States  is  a  nation  with  global  interests,  and  that  protecting  those  interests  requires  a  strong,  modern  and  capable  military.  The  Constitution  charges  Congress  with  the  responsibility  for  structuring,  building,  maintaining,  and  funding  that  military  capability.  It  is  a  responsibility  policymakers  must  make  a  top  priority. The  Choice:  Decline  as  a  World  Power  vs.  Renewed  American  LeadershipAmerica’s  fiscal  problems  pose  a  real  threat  to  its  military,  and  left  unaddressed,  these  problems  will  spell  decline  for  America  as  a  world  power.  The  need  to  address  this  threat  is  urgent.  But  decline  is  not  a  certainty  for  America.  Rather,  as  Washington  Post  syndicated  columnist  Charles  Krauthammer  put  it,  “decline  is  a  choice.”4Letting  budgetary  concerns  drive  national-­‐security  strategy  means  choosing  decline.  By  contrast,  putting  defense  first  among  government’s  priorities  while  simultaneously  lifting  the  debt  burden  and  ensuring  a  more  prosperous  America  would  enable  the  nation  to  afford  a  modernized  military  that  is  properly  sized  for  the  breadth  of  the  challenges  America  faces.Decline  as  a  World  PowerOn  January  5,  2012,  President  Obama  announced  new  defense  strategic  guidance  premised  on  the  hope  that  “the  tide  of  war  is  receding.”5  But  in  testimony  before  the  House  Budget  Committee,  Secretary  of  Defense  Leon  Panetta  acknowledged  that  the  administration’s  defense  drawdown  is  being  carried  out  in  the  face  of  ongoing  elevated  threats  to  the  United  States: SECRETARY  PANETTA:  But  despite  what  we  have  been  able  to  achieve,  unlike  past  drawdowns  when  threats   have  receded,  the  United  States  still  faces  a  complex  array  of  security  challenges  across  the  globe:  We  are  still  a   nation  at  war  in  Afghanistan;  we  still  face  threats  from  terrorism;  there  is  dangerous  proliferation  of  lethal   weapons  and  materials;  the  behavior  of  Iran  and  North  Korea  threatens  global  stability;  there  is  continuing   turmoil  and  unrest  in  the  Middle  East;  rising  powers  in  Asia  are  testing  international  relationships;  and  there  are   growing  concerns  about  cyber  intrusions  and  attacks.6Yet,  the  defining  characteristic  of  the  President’s  new  defense  posture  is  a  reduction  in  the  administration’s  own  defense  plan  from  last  year,  bringing  the  total  reduction  to  $487  billion  over  the  next  ten  years.  This  number  stands  out  as  significant  for  several  reasons.  In  the  President’s  latest  budget  proposal,  total  spending  increases  by  $1.5  trillion  and  taxes  increase  by  $1.9  trillion,  for  a  total  of  around  $400  billion  of  deficit  reduction  over  ten  years.  A  clear-­‐eyed  look  at  the  numbers  reveals  that  American  taxpayers  and  the  Department  of  Defense  are  being  asked  to  bear  the  entire  burden  of  deficit  reduction  under  the  President’s  budget.4  Charles  Krauthammer,  “Decline  is  a  Choice,”  The  Weekly  Standard,  October  19,  2009.  http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/017/056lfnpr.asp  5  President  Barack  Obama,  “Defense  Strategic  Guidance  Briefing,”  January  5,  2012.  http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4953  6  Leon  E.  Panetta,  Testimony  before  the  U.S.  House,  Committee  on  the  Budget.  The  Department  of  Defense  and  the  Fiscal  Year  2013  Budget,  February  29,  2013.  http://budget.house.gov/UploadedFiles/Panetta_Testimony_2292012.pdf    House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       20
    • Without  the  defense  cuts,  there  would  be  no  deficit  reduction,  and  without  the  tax  increases,  the  President’s  budget  would  represent  $1.5  trillion  in  additional  borrowing  to  finance  new  “stimulus”  spending. 7  Under  the  President’s  budget,  while  all  other  government  agencies  enjoy  a  generous  net  increase  in  their  allowance,  only  the  federal  government’s  highest  priority  –  defense  –  is  forced  to  make  do  with  less.The  President  has  asserted  that  his  new  defense  posture  is  driven  by  strategy  and  not  budgets,  but  his  timing  indicates  otherwise  –  he  announced  the  budget  figure  at  the  same  time  he  was  announcing  the  beginning  of  his  strategy  review.  Rather  than  choosing  to  lead  by  addressing  the  fundamental  drivers  of  near-­‐  and  long-­‐term  deficits  and  debt,  the  President  has  defaulted  to  slashing  the  defense  budget.  The  unmistakable  fact  is  that  the  President  has  chosen  to  subordinate  national-­‐security  strategy  to  his  other  spending  priorities.Renewed  American  LeadershipA  robust  national  defense  for  generations  to  come  can  only  be  sustained  on  a  sound  economic  foundation.  A  safer  world  and  a  more  prosperous  America  go  hand-­‐in-­‐hand.  Economic  growth  is  the  key  to  avoiding  the  kind  of  painful  austerity  that  would  limit  America’s  ability  to  exercise  both  hard  and  soft  power.  Today,  some  in  this  country  relish  the  idea  of  America’s  retreat  from  her  role  in  the  world.  They  say  that  it’s  about  time  for  other  nations  to  take  over;  that  America  should  turn  inward;  that  she  should  recede  from  her  unquestioned  ability  to  defeat  any  foe.      Instead  of  heeding  these  calls  for  retreat,  policymakers  must  renew  their  commitment  to  the  idea  that  America  is  the  greatest  force  for  human  freedom  the  world  has  ever  seen;  a  country  whose  devotion  to  free  enterprise  has  lifted  more  people  out  of  poverty  than  any  economic  system  ever  designed;  and  a  nation  whose  best  days  still  lie  ahead  of  it,  if  policymakers  make  the  necessary  choices  today.   The  Solution:  Providing  for  the  Common  Defense• Provide  $554  billion  for  national  defense  spending  in  FY2013,  an  amount  that  is  consistent  with  America’s   military  goals  and  strategies.• Reprioritize  sequester  savings  to  protect  the  nation’s  security. The  budget  resolution  offered  by  House  Republicans  ensures  that  the  men  and  women  who  each  day  risk  their  lives   in  defense  of  the  nation  will  continue  to  have  the  best  training,  equipment  and  support.  This  budget  is  not,   however,  a  blank  check  for  the  military.  To  the  contrary,  this  budget  builds  on  the  FY2012  budget’s  call  for  greater   efficiency  in  the  spending  of  defense  dollars.  Last  year,  the  budget  reduced  the  defense  program  by  $78  billion  over   ten  years  to  capture  savings  from  the  efficiencies  identified  under  the  leadership  of  Secretary  Gates.  This  year,   another  $60  billion  of  identified  efficiencies  are  devoted  to  mission-­‐critical  defense  priorities,  including  savings   recommended  by  Secretary  Panetta. This  budget  resolution  ensures  that  the  base  defense  budget  will  not  be  cut  during  wartime.  The  President’s   defense  budget  request  is  2.5  percent  lower  in  real  inflation-­‐adjusted  dollars  than  what  Congress  provided  for  this   year.  The  House  Republican  budget  provides  level  funding  for  defense  so  that  the  military  has  adequate  funds  to   accommodate  higher-­‐than-­‐anticipated  fuel  prices,  to  maintain  training  and  readiness,  and  to  keep  faith  with   America’s  soldiers,  sailors,  airmen,  and  marines. Over  the  ten-­‐year  period  covered  by  the  budget  resolution,  this  budget  restores  about  half  of  the  funding  cut  by  the   President  and  ensures  that  the  defense  budget  grows  in  real  terms  in  each  year  –  providing  adequate  funding  to   maintain  a  robust  end-­‐strength  and  to  address  the  years  of  forgone  equipment  modernization.  7  “Analysis  of  the  President’s  Budget  for  FY  2013,”  U.S.  House  Budget  Committee,  February  24,  2012.  http://budget.house.gov/UploadedFiles/POTUS_FY13budget.pdf  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       21
    • Congress  has  no  higher  responsibility  than  to  ensure  that  the  President  has  available  all  the  tools  necessary  to   protect  the  national  security.  This  budget  meets  that  responsibility.  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       22
    • RESTORING  ECONOMIC  FREEDOM RESTORING ECONOMIC FREEDOM KEY  POINTS The  free  enterprise  system  is  being  stifled  by  an  epidemic  of  crony  politics  and   government  overreach  that  has  weakened  confidence  in  the  nation’s  institutions   and  its  economy. This  budget  gets  Washington  out  of  the  business  of  picking  winners  and  losers,   and  restores  fiscal  discipline  with  over  $5  trillion  in  cuts  to  government  spending   so  the  private  sector  can  grow.     This  budget  repeals  the  President’s  health  care  law  –  curbing  the  federal   government’s  overreach  into  personal  health  care  decisions  –  and  instead  moves   toward  patient-­‐centered  reforms.   This  budget  reverses  the  President’s  policies  that  drive  up  gas  prices,  and  instead   promotes  an  all-­‐of-­‐the-­‐above  strategy  for  unlocking  American  energy  production   to  help  lower  costs,  create  jobs  and  reduce  dependence  on  foreign  oil.   This  budget  unwinds  government  control  over  the  housing  giants,  Fannie  Mae   and  Freddie  Mac,  so  they  no  longer  expose  taxpayers  to  trillions  of  dollars’  worth   of  risk. This  budget  revisits  flawed  financial-­‐reform  regulations  and  eliminates  provisions   that  make  future  bailouts  of  Wall  Street  insiders  more  likely.  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       23
    • House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       24
    • RESTORING  ECONOMIC  FREEDOM The  Challenge:  A  More  Bureaucratic  and  Less  Free  AmericaFor  decades,  the  U.S.  economy  has  been  a  magnet  for  investors,  entrepreneurs  and  workers  because  America  enjoys  some  of  the  strongest  and  most  transparent  legal  protections  in  the  world.  These  protections  provide  a  stable  environment  for  business  investment  –  stability  that  is  undermined  when  the  discretionary  power  of  bureaucrats  is  enhanced.  The  United  States  still  enjoys  an  enormous  edge  over  most  of  the  world  when  it  comes  to  the  strength  of  its  institutions  and  its  respect  for  the  rule  of  law.  But  America  is  moving  in  the  wrong  direction,  and  job  creators  have  taken  notice.  In  too  many  areas  of  the  economy  –  especially  energy,  housing,  finance,  and  health  care  –  free  enterprise  has  given  way  to  government  control  in  “partnership”  with  a  few  large  or  politically  well-­‐connected  companies,  and  the  rule  of  law  is  being  replaced  by  the  whims  of  politicians.  The  economy  will  not  grow  to  its  potential  until  government  restores  certainty  and  confidence  by  eliminating  the  cronyism  that  inevitably  results  when  government  assumes  the  power  to  pick  winners  and  losers  through  its  taxing,  spending,  and  regulatory  might.    Energy  The  President’s  energy  policies  have  been  characterized  by  punitive  regulations  on  economically  competitive  sources  of  energy,  coupled  with  reckless  spending  on  uncompetitive  alternatives.  Even  in  the  midst  of  failed  stimulus  outcomes,  the  administration  presented  another  budget  this  year  with  yet  another  energy  stimulus  program.  The  President’s  FY2013  budget  would  increase  energy  spending  government-­‐wide,  including  both  discretionary  and  mandatory  spending,  by  almost  90  percent  over  last  year’s  enacted  levels,  and  138  percent  over  FY2011.  Since  the  introduction  of  this  failed  energy  policy  in  the  2009  stimulus  bill,  the  Department  of  Energy  (DOE)  has  issued  $20  billion  in  new  loan  guarantees  for  renewable  energy  projects.  The  most  notorious  of  these  –  solar  start-­‐up  Solyndra  –  received  a  loan  guarantee  for  $535  million  in  the  fall  of  2009,  even  after  repeated  warnings  from  federal  financial  analysts  about  the  firm’s  financial  shakiness.  Meanwhile,  advocates  of  green  energy  have  argued  that  it’s  not  enough  for  the  government  to  subsidize  alternatives  –  it  should  also  promote  policies  that  make  commercially  competitive  sources  of  energy  more  expensive.  Then-­‐candidate  Obama  agreed,  arguing  in  January  of  2008:  “Under  my  plan  of  a  cap  and  trade  system,  electricity  rates  would  necessarily  skyrocket.”8This  was  the  idea  behind  the  controversial  “cap  and  trade”  bill  that  President  Obama  tried  and  failed  to  pass  through  Congress  in  2009,  which  would  have  established  an  elaborate  bureaucratic  structure  for  taxing  and  rationing  conventional  energy  sources.  But  instead  of  accepting  this  verdict  on  its  preferred  policy,  the  administration  continued  to  pursue  de  facto  cap  and  trade  approaches  by  supporting  the  Environmental  Protection  Agency’s  (EPA)  unilateral  plan  to  impose  emissions  restrictions  on  American  businesses.  The  push  by  the  Obama  administration  to  pursue  energy  and  environmental  policy  through  heavy-­‐handed  regulations  circumvents  accountability  to  voters  and  leaves  decisions  in  the  hands  of  a  bureaucratic  infrastructure.  Unnecessary  regulations  tie  the  hands  of  small  businesses  and  create  a  hostile  and  uncertain  business  environment,  discouraging  job  growth.  8  Senator  Barack  Obama,  San  Francisco  Chronicle  editorial  board  meeting,  January  17,  2008.http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-­‐bin/object/article?f=/c/a/2008/01/20/EDIAUHASH.DTL&o=0  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       25
    • In  some  areas,  such  as  fuel-­‐economy  standards,  the  administration  has  abused  a  rulemaking  process  in  order  to  ensure  compliance  from  private-­‐sector  parties  –  for  instance,  bailing  out  General  Motors  and  Chrysler  as  it  was  telling  them  to  accept  government’s  more  costly  fuel-­‐economy  standards.9  In  other  areas,  such  as  the  debate  over  the  new  Keystone  pipeline,  the  administration  has  simply  blocked  action  that  would  result  in  more  jobs  and  lower  energy  prices  for  Americans.  President  Obama  has  chosen  to  delay  a  decision  on  this  common-­‐sense  job  creator  until  after  the  next  election,  despite  years  of  vetting  and  an  exhaustion  of  inadequate  excuses.10The  result:  Since  the  start  of  the  administration,  gas  prices  have  doubled;  regulations  have  extracted  almost  $2  trillion  per  year  from  the  economy,  according  the  Small  Business  Administration,  including  $281  billion  for  environmental  regulations  imposed  on  small  businesses;  and  government  “investments”  have  failed.11  Fannie  Mae  and  Freddie  MacThe  federal  takeover  of  Fannie  Mae  and  Freddie  Mac  continues  to  be  the  most  costly  taxpayer  bailout  to  result  from  the  2008  financial  crisis.  So  far,  Fannie  and  Freddie  have  received  over  $185  billion  in  taxpayer-­‐funded  bailouts.12For  years,  policymakers  insisted  that  Fannie  and  Freddie,  despite  being  government-­‐sponsored  enterprises  (GSEs),  posed  no  liability  to  the  federal  government.  Through  their  unique  status,  which  they  cultivated  through  political  influence,  they  recklessly  expanded  their  balance  sheets,  privatized  their  profits,  outsourced  their  risks  to  the  American  public,  and  created  a  disaster  for  taxpayers.  Taxpayers’  exposure  to  Fannie  and  Freddie,  once  an  implicit  guarantee,  has  now  become  an  explicit  obligation  to  cover  its  debts.  While  under  conservatorship,  CBO  estimates  that  Fannie  and  Freddie  could  cost  taxpayers  an  all-­‐in  $335  billion.  In  contrast,  the  administration’s  proposed  budget  does  not  fully  account  for  the  taxpayer  exposure  of  Fannie  and  Freddie,  choosing  instead  to  leave  them  off-­‐budget.Despite  the  government’s  abysmal  track  record  of  interference  in  the  housing  market,  Fannie,  Freddie,  and  another  government  housing  agency,  the  Federal  Housing  Administration,  now  dominate  97  percent  of  the  market  for  the  issuance  of  new  mortgage-­‐backed  securities.  Corporate-­‐welfare  arrangements  like  the  GSEs  socialize  risk  by  shifting  losses  to  the  taxpayers,  but  allow  profits  to  accrue  to  management,  bondholders  and  Wall  Street  institutions  that  trade  mortgage-­‐backed  securities.  On  their  current  course,  the  GSEs  represent  a  failed  experiment  in  corporate  welfare  and  the  largest  bailout  of  financial  institutions  in  recent  history.  Financial  ServicesThe  actions  taken  at  the  height  of  the  financial  panic  of  2008,  with  credit  markets  frozen,  succeeded  in  halting  a  systemic  panic,  but  the  Troubled  Asset  Relief  Program  (TARP)  has  since  morphed  into  crony  capitalism  at  its  worst.  Abandoning  TARP’s  original  and  limited  purpose  of  providing  targeted  assistance  to  unlock  credit  markets,  the  Treasury  Department’s  senior  officials  transformed  TARP  into  an  ad  hoc,  opaque  bailout  and  a  slush  fund  for  large  private  institutions.      9  For  more  details,  see  the  discussion  of  the  automaker  bailouts  later  in  this  chapter.10  “Waiting  for  the  Keystone  XL  Pipeline,”  House  Energy  and  Commerce  Committee,  accessed  March  3,  2012.  http://energycommerce.house.gov/keystonexl.shtml  11  “The  Empty  Promise  of  Green  Jobs,”  House  Budget  Committee,  September  22,  2011.  http://budget.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=261226  12  Committee  on  Financial  Services,  Views  and  Estimates  of  the  Committee  on  Financial  Services  on  Matters  to  be  Set  Forth  in  the  Concurrent  Resolution  on  the  Budget  for  Fiscal  Year  2013.  March  6,  2012.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       26
    • TARP  was  supposed  to  be  confined  to  a  narrow  emergency.  Unfortunately,  the  use  of  TARP  funds  was  approved  for  the  bailouts  of  all  sorts,  including  cash  infusions  for  the  automakers  General  Motors  and  Chrysler.  This  entrenched  the  idea  that  TARP  could  be  used  for  just  about  any  kind  of  economic  intervention,  regardless  of  the  fact  that  the  original  bill  charged  the  program  only  to,  quote,  “purchase…  troubled  assets  from  any  financial  institution.”Even  greater  damage  came  later,  when  the  Obama  administration  used  the  auto  bailout  to  trample  the  rights  of  Chrysler’s  secured  bondholders  –  including  state  pension  funds  –  in  order  to  give  politically  favored  groups  a  better  deal  than  they  were  entitled  to  under  the  bankruptcy  law.  The  damage  done  by  the  automaker  bailouts  went  well  beyond  reducing  confidence  in  the  U.S.  bankruptcy  system  –  it  was  on  display  when  the  administration  used  unbalanced  closed-­‐door  meetings  to  strong-­‐arm  automakers  into  supporting  new  fuel-­‐economy  regulations.13  The  financial-­‐regulation  law  authored  in  2010  by  Senator  Chris  Dodd  and  Representative  Barney  Frank  (the  Dodd-­‐Frank  Act)  offers  another  example  of  the  trend  of  government  overreach  in  the  private  sector.    The  Dodd-­‐Frank  Act  has  expanded  the  power  of  unelected  bureaucrats,  created  a  mandate  for  hundreds  of  new  regulations,  and  entrenched  the  role  of  influence-­‐peddlers  in  Washington.  It  has  solidified  government’s  guarantee  of  Wall  Street  at  the  expense  of  the  taxpayer  and  imposed  burdensome  compliance  costs  on  a  wide  array  of  private-­‐sector  companies.  Although  the  bill  is  dubbed  “Wall  Street  Reform,”  it  actually  intensifies  the  problem  of  too-­‐big-­‐to-­‐fail  by  giving  large,  interconnected  financial  institutions  advantages  that  small  firms  will  not  enjoy.  While  the  authors  of  the  Dodd-­‐Frank  Act  went  to  great  lengths  to  denounce  bailouts,  this  law  only  sustains  them.  The  Federal  Deposit  Insurance  Corporation  (FDIC)  now  has  the  authority  to  draw  on  taxpayer  dollars  to  bail  out  the  creditors  of  large,  “systemically  significant”  financial  institutions.  CBO’s  expected  cost  for  this  new  authority  is  $33  billion,  although  the  office  recognizes  that  “the  cost  of  the  program  will  depend  on  future  economic  and  financial  events  that  are  inherently  unpredictable.”14  In  other  words,  another  large-­‐scale  financial  crisis  in  which  creditors  are  guaranteed  to  get  government  bailouts  would  cost  taxpayers  much,  much  more.Developments  in  the  area  of  financial-­‐services  regulation,  including  the  Dodd-­‐Frank  Act,  amount  to  an  enormous  transfer  of  power  to  the  same  bureaucrats  who  were  blindsided  by  the  financial  meltdown  of  2008.  This  will  further  deter  economic  expansion,  invite  political  corruption  and  degrade  self-­‐government.Health  CareThe  President’s  health  care  law  is  the  crown  jewel  of  the  new  crony  politics.  The  law  increases  the  discretionary  power  of  bureaucrats,  which  in  turn  increases  the  power  of  those  special  interests  in  the  health  care  industry  that  are  big  enough  to  secure  themselves  a  seat  at  the  table  when  the  rules  are  written.  The  law  as  written  guarantees  over  $800  billion  in  subsidies  for  health  insurance  companies  by subsidizing  the  purchase  of  government-­‐approved  health  insurance  and  forcing  people  to  buy  it.15  The  cronyism  in  the  new  law  does  not  stop  at  the  transfer  of  billions  of  taxpayer  dollars  to  the  insurance  industry.  It  also  allows  the  Health  and  Human  Services  Secretary  and  federal  bureaucrats  to  grant  waivers  exempting  favored  groups  from  its  onerous  mandates.  For  a  lucky  few,  such  as  the  many  unions  that  have  been  granted  waivers,  this  amounts  to  a  “stay”  from  the  full  consequences  of  the  new  law.  For  the  unlucky  many  without  political  connections,  this  means  subservience  to  the  whims  of  the  party  in  power  –  even  if  First  Amendment  rights  to  religious  liberty  are  involved,  as  America’s  religious  employers  have  recently  learned  the  hard  way.  13  Darrell  Issa,  Chairman  of  the  House  Committee  on  Oversight  and  Government  Reform,  to  Kathryn  Ruemmler,  Counsel  to  the  President,  February  29,2012.http://oversight.house.gov/images/stories/Letters/2012-­‐02-­‐29_DEI_to_Ruemmler-­‐WH_-­‐_CAFE_standards_due_3-­‐14.pdf  14  Douglas  M.  Elmendorf,  Statement  Before  the  Subcommittee  on  Oversight  and  Investigations,  Review  of  CBO’s  Cost  Estimate  for  the  Dodd-­‐Frank  Wall  Street  Reform  and  Consumer  Protection  Act,    March  30,  2011.15  “Updated  Estimates  for  the  Insurance  Coverage  Provisions  of  the  Affordable  Care  Act,”    Congressional  Budget  Office,  March  2012.  http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/03-­‐13-­‐Coverage%20Estimates.pdf    House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       27
    • Though  the  right  to  freedom  of  conscience  has  not  been  respected  in  the  waiver  process,  the  administration  has  for  other  reasons  granted  over  1,400  businesses  and  organizations  temporary  waivers  from  the  law’s  requirements.16  These  waivers  do  not  guarantee  permanent  relief,  nor  do  they  help  those  firms  that  lack  the  connections  to  lobby  for  waivers.  The  powerful  discretion  assumed  by  the  administration  to  play  judge  in  determining  who  receives  these  waivers  and  whether  or  not  to  extend  them  does  tremendous  damage  to  the  rule  of  law.The  health  care  law  vastly  expands  an  already  unwieldy  administrative  state,  creating  159  new  boards,  bureaucracies,  commissions  and  government  programs. 17  The  law  is  built  around  the  assumption  that  bureaucrats,  if  given  enough  power  over  the  health  care  marketplace,  can  curb  rising  health  care  costs  by  expertly  determining  prices  and  dictating  treatment  options  to  doctors  and  patients.  This  “fatal  conceit”  stands  in  stark  contrast  to  America’s  historic  commitment  to  individual  liberty  and  personal  responsibility.  In  the  health  care  sector  as  elsewhere,  the  best  way  to  control  costs  is  to  give  Americans  control  over  the  money  they  spend  on  health  services,  thus  letting  bottom-­‐up  competition  driven  by  300  million  consumers  control  costs,  improve  quality  and  expand  access.  The  approach  represented  by  the  new  law  transforms  the  relationship  between  citizen  and  state,  leaving  individuals  increasingly  passive  and  dependent  on  their  government.  It  will  substantially  diminish  quality  of  and  access  to  care  as  future  policymakers  cut  costs  to  meet  budgetary  bottom  lines  rather  than  patients’  medical  needs.  There  is  no  way  for  “experts”  in  Washington  to  know  more  about  the  health  care  needs  of  individual  Americans  than  those  individuals  and  their  doctors  know,  nor  should  they  second-­‐guess  how  each  individual  would  prioritize  services  against  costs.  The  new  health  care  law  has  taken  the  nation  a  giant  step  closer  to  a  fully  socialized  system.  The  problems  with  this  approach  are  already  popping  up  all  over  the  country.  Health  care  costs  are  escalating  relentlessly.  The  new  law  has  aggravated  the  worst  aspects  of  the  U.S.  health  care  system,  without  fixing  what  was  (and  remains)  broken.   The  Choice:  Cronyism  and  Corporate  Welfare  vs.  A  Level  Playing  FieldIn  each  major  sector  of  the  economy,  the  President  and  his  party’s  leaders  have  offered  a  vision  at  odds  with  the  core  principles  of  economic  freedom.  It  is  an  obsolete  vision  that  favors  big,  well-­‐established  or  politically  well-­‐connected  corporations  and  unions  at  the  expense  of  workers  and  small  competitors.  It  is  a  vision  that  creates  political  inequality  by  favoring  companies  with  the  best  connections  over  those  with  the  best  ideas.  And  it  is  a  vision  that  inhibits  growth  by  increasing  the  cost  of  complying  with  government  regulations  instead  of  leaving  enterprises  with  more  money  and  more  freedom  to  hire  workers  and  create  jobs.  America’s  leaders  must  offer  a  new  vision  for  a  new  century  –  not  by  applying  old  tax-­‐and-­‐spend  policies  to  whatever  industrial  fad  is  popular  in  Washington,  but  by  freeing  the  small  businessperson,  the  worker  and  the  entrepreneur  to  keep  writing  the  American  success  story.  Cronyism  and  Corporate  WelfareIn  energy,  the  President  and  his  party’s  leaders  remain  committed  to  a  policy  that  blocks  proven  domestic  energy  sources  while  spending  recklessly  on  uncompetitive  alternatives.  In  housing,  the  administration  has  failed  to  take  action  to  account  honestly  for  the  liabilities  of  Fannie  Mae  and  Freddie  Mac,  and  it  continues  the  bailout  of  these  entities  that  has  already  cost  taxpayers  hundreds  of  billions.  In  financial  services,  the  President  and  his  party’s  leaders  remain  wedded  to  an  approach  that  views  the  consolidation  of  big  banks  –  and  the  empowerment  of  the  same  regulators  who  failed  to  see  the  last  crisis  coming  –  as  “reform,”  when  it  is  actually  an  invitation  to  corruption  and  potentially  greater  financial  collapse  down  the  road.  16  “Annual  Limits  Policy:  Protecting  Consumers,  Maintaining  Options,  and  Building  a  Bridge  to  2014,”  Centers    for  Medicare  and  Medicaid  Studies.  http://cciio.cms.gov/resources/files/approved_applications_for_waiver.html  17  “159  Ways  the  Senate  Bill  is  a  Government  Takeover  of  Health  Care.”  Senate  Republican  Policy  Committee,  February  25,  2010.  http://www.gop.gov/blog/10/02/25/159-­‐ways-­‐the-­‐senate-­‐bill.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       28
    • And  in  health  care,  the  administration  continues  to  transform  one-­‐sixth  of  the  U.S.  economy  into  a  government-­‐directed  industry,  rife  with  bureaucratic  favoritism  and  capricious  rules  that  trample  the  liberties  of  individuals,  families,  churches,  non-­‐profits,  and  employers.  In  addition  to  these  interventions,  the  President  and  his  party’s  leaders  continue  to  overstep  government’s  bounds  by  punishing  businesses  in  order  to  reward  the  organized-­‐labor  groups  that  finance  their  campaigns.  The  actions  of  the  National  Labor  Relations  Board  (NLRB)  under  this  administration  offer  another  good  example  of  bureaucratic  overreach  and  the  decline  of  the  rule  of  law.  The  most  notorious  case  involves  Boeing,  which  the  NLRB  sued  over  its  decision  to  locate  a  new  factory  in  South  Carolina  instead  of  union-­‐friendly  Washington  State.  The  Board’s  actions  threatened  hundreds  of  jobs.  Eventually  the  NLRB  dropped  its  lawsuit  at  the  request  of  the  politically  connected  union  that  had  prompted  the  suit.18By  picking  winners  and  losers  in  the  market,  the  government-­‐as-­‐investor  model  distorts  markets,  subverts  the  rule  of  law,  and  fails  to  spur  sustainable  job  creation.  Instead  of  helping  the  economy,  billions  of  taxpayers’  dollars  are  thrown  away,  successful  companies  are  deprived  of  their  competitive  advantages,  and  workers  lose  their  jobs.This  is  the  ugly  end  of  government’s  failed  experiment  with  crony  capitalism.  Fortunately,  there  is  a  better  way  forward.A  Level  Playing  Field  Restoring  the  rule  of  law  –  reducing  the  influence  of  bureaucrats  in  the  lives  of  Americans  and  empowering  individuals  instead  –  is  central  to  the  reforms  proposed  in  this  budget.  In  fact,  such  reforms  go  hand  in  hand  with  efforts  to  lift  the  crushing  burden  of  debt,  secure  the  social  safety  net,  spur  job  creation,  and  restore  economic  growth  for  all.In  energy,  Congress  must  limit  the  EPA’s  discretionary  power  to  impose  a  bureaucratic  version  of  the  job-­‐destroying  cap-­‐and-­‐trade  program,  and  it  must  allow  the  private  sector  to  develop  proven  sources  of  American-­‐made  energy,  creating  jobs  and  lowering  the  price  of  energy  here  at  home.  In  housing,  Congress  must  put  an  end  to  the  practice  of  corporate  welfare  and  taxpayer  bailouts,  especially  by  winding  down  government  guarantees  and  ending  taxpayer  subsidies  for  Fannie  and  Freddie.In  financial  services,  Congress  needs  to  reassert  democratic  control  over  unaccountable  bureaucrats  and  establish  a  regulatory  environment  that  is  fair,  neutral,  predictable,  and  reasonable,  with  reforms  that  foster  growth  and  responsibility;  ensure  that  credit  can  be  efficiently  accessed  by  families  and  entrepreneurs;  and  hold  to  account  those  who  violate  the  rules.And  in  health  care,  Congress  must  repeal  the  President’s  disastrous  new  law,  diminish  the  power  of  unelected  bureaucrats  over  personal  health  care  decisions,  and  restore  that  power  to  individuals  and  families  by  advancing  reforms  that  allow  robust  choice  and  competition  in  health  care.  Regarding  organized  labor,  Congress  needs  to  protect  the  economic  freedom  and  security  of  working  Americans  by  reining  in  the  NLRB,  a  federal  agency  that  is  threatening  job  creation  by  overreaching  its  mandate.  Because  a  majority  of  union  members  in  the  United  States  now  works  for  the  public  sector,  organized  labor  has  become  an  increasingly  powerful  force  on  behalf  of  bigger  government  and  higher  taxes.19  Policymakers  must  make  sure  America  has  a  public  sector  that  works  for  the  people  it  serves  –  not  the  other  way  around.  18  Steven  Greenhouse,  “Labor  Board  Drops  Case  Against  Boeing  After  Union  Reaches  Accord,”  New  York  Times,  December  9,  2011.  http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/10/business/labor-­‐board-­‐drops-­‐case-­‐against-­‐boeing.html19  Catherine  Rampell,  “In  Unions,  Government  Workers  Surpass  Private-­‐Sector  Workers,”  Economix  (blog),  New  York  Times,  January  22,  2010.  http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/22/in-­‐unions-­‐government-­‐workers-­‐surpass-­‐private-­‐sector-­‐workers/  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       29
    • The  Solution:  Restoring  Free  EnterpriseEnding  Cronyism  and  Corporate  Welfare• Restore  competition  and  exploration  as  the  keys  to  a  vibrant  energy  sector,  and  get  the  government  out  of  the   business  of  picking  winners  and  losers.   In  stark  contrast  to  the  President’s  energy  policy,  this  budget  promotes  new  energy  exploration  to  discover   unknown  energy  resources,  generate  millions  of  new  high-­‐paying  jobs  and  help  fund  needed  infrastructure   initiatives. This  budget  would  continue  funding  essential  government  missions,  including  energy  security  and  basic  research   and  development,  while  paring  back  duplicative  spending  and  non-­‐core  functions,  such  as  applied  and  commercial   research  or  development  projects  best  left  to  the  private  sector.  And  it  would  immediately  terminate  all  programs   that  allow  government  to  play  venture  capitalist  with  taxpayers’  money.   It  scales  back  spending  on  government  bureaucracies  that  are  seeking  to  impose  a  job-­‐destroying  national  energy   tax.  It  assumes  increased  revenues  from  bonus  bids,  rents,  royalties,  and  fees  as  a  result  of  lifting  moratoriums  and   bans  on  safe,  environmentally  responsible  exploration  for  domestic  energy  supplies.  And  it  allows  private   development  of  all  American-­‐made  energy,  including  nuclear,  wind  and  solar.   Ultimately,  the  best  energy  policy  is  one  that  encourages  robust  competition  and  innovation  to  ensure  the   American  people  an  affordable  and  stable  supply  of  energy.  This  budget  would  roll  back  federal  intervention  and   expensive  corporate  welfare  funding  directed  to  favored  industries.  Instead,  it  would  promote  policies  aimed  at   reliable  energy,  lower  energy  prices,  greater  revenue  generation  through  prosperity,  and  market-­‐based  solutions   for  sustainable  energy.• Privatize  the  business  of  government-­‐owned  housing  giants,  Fannie  Mae  and  Freddie  Mac,  so  they  no  longer   expose  taxpayers  to  trillions  of  dollars’  worth  of  risk. This  budget  will  put  an  end  to  the  practice  of  corporate  welfare  and  taxpayer  bailouts  in  housing  finance.  It   proposes  eventual  elimination  of  Fannie  Mae  and  Freddie  Mac,  winding  down  their  government  guarantees  and   ending  taxpayer  subsidies.  It  supports  various  mechanisms  intended  to  bring  back  private  capital,  shrink  the  GSEs’   retained  portfolios,  and  increase  transparency  and  accountability.    One  option  for  scaling  back  the  GSE’s  overreach   would  be  to  cap  the  value  of  a  home  for  which  Fannie  or  Freddie  could  guarantee  a  loan.  Such  a  policy  would  reduce   the  number  of  loans  the  entities  could  back,  naturally  shrinking  their  market  share.   The  housing-­‐finance  system  of  the  future  will  allow  private-­‐market  secondary  lenders  to  fairly,  freely  and   transparently  compete,  with  the  knowledge  that  they  will  ultimately  bear  appropriate  risk  for  the  loans  they   guarantee.  Their  viability  and  profitability  will  be  determined,  not  by  political  favoritism,  but  by  the  soundness  of   their  practices  and  the  value  of  their  services.• Reform  the  Credit  Reform  Act  to  stop  the  transfer  of  taxpayer  risk  to  FHA.   As  the  bailouts  of  Fannie  and  Freddie  continue,  another  bailout  to  a  housing  giant  looms.  The  FHA’s  Mutual   Mortgage  Insurance  Fund’s  capital  reserve  ratio  has  fallen  to  0.24  percent  –  far  below  its  congressionally-­‐mandated   level  of  2  percent.  Should  the  capital  ratio  fall  below  zero,  yet  another  taxpayer  bailout  of  a  housing  finance  giant   will  be  automatically  triggered.2020  Committee  on  Financial  Services,  Views  and  Estimates  of  the  Committee  on  Financial  Services  on  Matters  to  be  Set  Forth  in  the  Concurrent  Resolution  on  the  Budget  for  Fiscal  Year  2013.  March  6,  2012.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       30
    • Given  the  precarious  financial  position  of  the  FHA,  the  government  should  adopt  measures  to  discourage  shifting  of   taxpayer  risk  to  the  FHA  and  other  government-­‐backed  entities  as  Fannie  and  Freddie  are  wound  down.    The   current  budgetary  treatment  of  FHA  loans  understates  the  full  costs  associated  with  them,  thus  it  encourages   policymakers  to  shift  risk  from  Fannie  and  Freddie  to  FHA.  This  budget  calls  for  the  use  of  fair-­‐value  scoring  for   federal  credit  programs.    Without  it,  the  full  risk  of  FHA  loans  –  effectively  borne  by  taxpayers  –  cannot  be  properly   accounted  for  in  the  budget.• Revisit  flawed  financial-­‐reform  regulations  and  eliminate  provisions  that  make  future  bailouts  more  likely.   This  budget  would  end  the  bailout  regime  enshrined  into  law  by  the  Dodd-­‐Frank  Act.  The  federal  government  has  a   critical  role  in  helping  to  ensure  financial  markets  are  fair  and  transparent,  and  in  holding  accountable  those  who   violate  the  rules.  But  even  though  that  role  is  critical,  it  is  a  limited  one:  Federal  bureaucrats  should  not  be   empowered  to  micromanage  the  financial  system,  and  this  budget  will  review  financial  regulations  to  ensure  that   the  costs  to  the  private  sector  and  to  the  taxpayer  do  not  outweigh  their  benefits,  and  that  regulations  are  both   essential  and  not  unduly  burdensome. Future  reforms  should  aim  to  restore  the  principles  that  have  made  American  capital  markets  the  envy  of  the  world:   freedom  to  participate,  an  unbreakable  link  between  performance  and  reward,  full  accountability  for  risk,   avoidance  of  moral  hazard,  and  a  sense  of  responsibility  that  ensures  that  those  who  seek  to  reap  the  gains  also   bear  the  full  risk  of  losses.• Repeal  the  President’s  health  care  law.   This  budget  would  put  an  end  to  the  cronyism  and  corporate  welfare  created  by  government  overreach  into  the   health  care  sector.  What  America  already  knows  about  the  law  is  this:  Costs  are  going  up,  premiums  are  rising,  and   millions  of  people  will  lose  the  coverage  they  currently  have.  Job  creation  is  being  stifled  by  its  taxes,  penalties,   mandates  and  fees. The  President’s  new  health  care  law  will  exacerbate  the  spiraling  cost  of  health  care,  explode  deficits  and  debt,  and   forever  alter  the  relationship  between  the  government  and  the  American  people.  Repealing  the  exchange  subsidies   stops  this  downward  slide  and  saves  roughly  $808  billion  over  the  next  ten  years  by  abolishing  the  government   spending  and  making  sure  that  not  a  penny  goes  toward  implementing  the  new  law.   This  repeal  turns  off  the  new  gusher  of  taxpayer  money  for  those  special  interests  that  were  powerful  enough  to   ensure  themselves  a  seat  at  the  table  when  the  2,700  page  law  was  being  written.  It  also  stops  the  invasive   mandates  from  bureaucrats  who  grant  waivers  to  the  privileged  and  impose  one-­‐size-­‐fits-­‐all  regulation  on  the  rest.  • Move  toward  patient-­‐centered  reform. There  is  a  consensus  of  willing  leaders  from  both  parties  coalescing  around  the  right  way  forward  in  health  care.   Reform  should  address  government-­‐imposed  inequities  and  barriers  to  true  choice  and  competition.  Common-­‐ sense  solutions  include  enacting  medical  liability  reform,  ensuring  Americans  can  purchase  quality  coverage  across   state  lines,  and  expanding  access  to  consumer-­‐directed  health  care  options.  Addressing  distortions  in  the  tax  code   could  begin  by  giving  employers  the  opportunity  to  offer  their  employees  a  free  choice  option,  so  that  workers   could  be  free  to  devote  their  employer’s  health  coverage  contribution  to  the  purchase  a  health  insurance  plan  that   works  best  for  them.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       31
    • • Boost  private-­‐sector  employment  by  slowing  the  growth  of  the  public  sector,  achieving  a  10  percent  reduction   over  the  next  three  years  in  the  federal  workforce  through  attrition,  coupled  with  a  pay  freeze  until  2015  and   reforms  to  government  workers’  fringe  benefits. The  federal  government  has  added  147,000  new  workers  since  the  President  took  office.  It  is  no  coincidence  that   private-­‐sector  employment  continues  to  grow  only  sluggishly  while  the  government  expands:  To  pay  for  the  public-­‐ sector’s  growth,  Washington  must  immediately  tax  the  private  sector  or  else  borrow  and  impose  taxes  later  to  pay   down  the  debt.   The  federal  government’s  responsibilities  require  a  strong  federal  workforce.  Federal  workers  deserve  to  be   compensated  equitably  for  their  important  work,  but  their  pay  levels,  pay  increases  and  fringe  benefits  should  be   reformed  to  better  align  with  those  of  their  private-­‐sector  counterparts.   Compensation  for  federal  workers  continues  to  outpace  pay  for  their  private-­‐sector  counterparts.  The  non-­‐partisan   CBO  recently  released  a  study  saying  that  federal  workers  are,  on  average,  compensated  16  percent  higher  than   comparable  private-­‐sector  employees. 21  Immune  from  the  effects  of  the  recession,  federal  workers  have  received   regular  salary  bumps  regardless  of  productivity  or  economic  realities. The  reforms  called  for  in  this  budget  aim  to  slow  the  federal  government’s  unsustainable  growth  and  reflect  the   growing  frustration  of  workers  across  the  country  at  the  privileged  rules  enjoyed  by  government  employees.  They   reduce  the  public-­‐sector  bureaucracy,  not  through  layoffs,  but  via  a  gradual,  sensible  attrition  policy.  By  2015,  this   reform  would  result  in  a  10  percent  reduction  in  the  federal  workforce.   Additionally,  this  budget  freezes  federal  pay  through  2015  and  asks  federal  employees  to  make  a  more  equitable   contribution  to  their  retirement  plans.  When  combined,  these  proposals  will  save  taxpayers  approximately  $368   billion  over  ten  years.  Cutting  Spending  So  the  Economy  Can  Grow• Build  on  continued  efforts  to  pare  back  spending  on  government  bureaucracies  by  capping  spending. Whether  branded  as  stimulus  or  rebranded  as  investment,  government  spending  is  no  substitute  for  a  true  recovery   led  by  the  private  sector.  All  of  this  borrowed  money  and  debt  is  fueling  uncertainty  for  businesses  and  job  creators,   who  know  that  today’s  deficits  are  tomorrow’s  interest  rate  and  tax  increases. Getting  spending  under  control  is  critical.  This  budget  builds  on  the  efforts  achieved  under  the  Budget  Control  Act   to  cap  spending.  It  would  achieve  spending  reduction,  not  just  through  across-­‐the-­‐board  cuts,  but  by  scaling  back   funding  for  agencies  whose  recent  budgetary  increases  have  fueled  the  epidemic  of  crony  politics  and  government   overreach  that  has  weakened  confidence  in  the  nation’s  institutions  and  its  economy.  • Take  action  to  eliminate  wasteful  Washington  spending,  building  upon  the  suggestions  of  the  President’s   Fiscal  Commission,  the  work  of  the  House  majority,  and  the  proposals  put  forward  by  an  array  of  non-­‐partisan,   independent  watchdogs  that  have  worked  to  expose  the  abuse  of  taxpayer  dollars. Washington’s  spending  problem  did  not  just  develop  in  the  last  few  years.  It  will  require  even  more  work  to  undo   the  damage  of  decades  of  reckless  spending  increases.  This  budget  restores  fiscal  discipline  to  government.  It  does   this,  not  through  indiscriminate  cuts,  but  by  compelling  the  elimination  of  dozens  of  wasteful  and  duplicative   programs  identified  by  non-­‐partisan  watchdogs  and  government  auditors.  21  “Comparing  Benefits  and  Total  Compensation  in  the  Federal  Government  and  the  Private  Sector,”  Congressional  Budget  Office,  January  30,  2012.  http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/126xx/doc12696/01-­‐30-­‐FedPay.pdf  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       32
    • Anti-­‐Fraud  Accounts:  The  federal  government  wastes  billions  of  American  taxpayers’  dollars  each  year  by  making   improper  payments  to  individuals,  organizations  and  contractors.  In  2011  alone,  the  federal  government  made  an   estimated  $115  billion  in  improper  payments.  This  budget  funds  targeted  increases  in  anti-­‐fraud  accounts,  saving   billions  of  dollars  in  waste,  fraud,  and  abuse  in  the  Medicare,  Medicaid,  Supplemental  Security  Income,  and   Disability  Insurance  programs. Sales  of  Unneeded  Federal  Assets:  In  the  last  year  alone,  Republicans  put  forth  proposals  to  sell  unneeded  federal   property.  Representative  Jason  Chaffetz  has  proposed  to  sell  millions  of  acres  of  unneeded  federal  land.  Likewise,   Representative  Jeff  Denham’s  bill  to  authorize  the  sale  of  billions  of  dollars  worth  of  federal  assets  would  save  the   government  money,  collect  corresponding  revenue,  and  remove  economic  distortions  by  reducing  public   ownership.  Such  sales  could  also  potentially  be  encouraged  by  reducing  appropriations  to  various  agencies.  If  done   correctly,  taxpayers  could  recoup  billions  of  dollars  from  selling  unused  government  property. This  budget  proposes  to  reduce  the  federal  auto  fleet  (excluding  the  Department  of  Defense  and  the  U.S.  Postal   Service)  by  20  percent;  streamline  the  process  and  rationalize  the  regulations  for  the  disposal  and  sale  of  federal   property  to  eliminate  red  tape  and  waste;  set  enforceable  targets  for  asset  sales;  and  hold  government  agencies   accountable  for  the  buildings  they  oversee. Government  Accountability  Office  (GAO)  recommendations:  Each  year  GAO  issues  a  report  on  eliminating   duplicative  government  programs  and  saving  taxpayers  money.  In  its  2012  report,  GAO  identified  dozens  of   examples  of  waste,  duplication  and  overlap.22  Comptroller  General  of  the  United  States,  Gene  Dodaro,  recently   testified  that  implementing  the  suggested  reforms  government-­‐wide  “could  potentially  save  tens  of  billions  of   dollars.”23   This  budget  proposes  that  all  authorizing  committees  (which  oversee  government  departments  and  agencies)   should  annually  provide  to  the  House  Budget  Committee  (which  writes  the  budget)  spending  reduction   recommendations  for  programs  in  their  jurisdictions  that  are  duplicative,  wasteful,  outmoded,  or  excessively   expensive  for  the  benefits  received.  Furthermore,  these  recommendations  should  be  made  publicly  available,  so   that  taxpayers  are  provided  with  the  transparency  required  for  full  accountability  in  government. Other  examples  of  wasteful  spending:  This  budget  doesn’t  just  take  the  recommendations  of  others  –  it  draws  upon   House  Budget  Committee  examinations  that  combed  the  federal  budget  for  other  examples  of  wasteful  spending.   While  no  federal  department  is  free  of  inefficiency,  the  Department  of  Transportation  in  particular  offered  a  number   of  areas  where  spending  could  be  cut  back  responsibly.   In  the  first  two  years  of  the  Obama  administration,  funding  for  the  Department  of  Transportation  grew  by  24   percent  –  and  that  doesn’t  count  the  stimulus  spike,  which  nearly  doubled  transportation  spending  in  one  year.  The   mechanisms  of  federal  highway  and  transit  spending  have  become  distorted,  leading  to  imprudent,  irresponsible,   and  often  downright  wasteful  spending.  Further,  however  worthy  some  highway  projects  might  be,  their  capacity   as  job  creators  has  been  vastly  oversold,  as  demonstrated  by  the  extravagant  but  unfulfilled  promises  that   accompanied  the  2009  stimulus  bill,  particularly  with  regard  to  high-­‐speed  rail. In  the  wake  of  these  failures,  and  with  the  federal  government’s  fiscal  challenges  making  long-­‐term  subsidization   infeasible,  high-­‐speed  rail  and  other  new  intercity  rail  projects  should  be  pursued  only  if  they  can  be  established  as   self-­‐supporting  commercial  services.  The  threat  of  large,  endless  subsidies  is  precisely  the  reason  governors  across   the  country  are  rejecting  federally-­‐funded  high-­‐speed  rail  projects.  This  budget  eliminates  these  projects,  which   have  failed  numerous  and  clear  cost-­‐benefit  analyses.  22  2012  Annual  Report:  Overlap  and  Fragmentation,  Achieve  Savings,  and  Enhance  Revenue,  U.S.  Government  Accountability  Office,  March  2012.  http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-­‐12-­‐342SP23  Gene  L.  Dodaro,  Testimony  before  the  U.S.  House  Oversight  Committee,  Government  2.0:  GAO  Unveils  New  Duplicative  Program  Report,  February  28,  2012.  http://oversight.house.gov/hearing/government-­‐2-­‐0-­‐gao-­‐unveils-­‐new-­‐duplicative-­‐program-­‐report/  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       33
    • • Reflect  the  economic  reality  of  record-­‐high  farm  income  by  restructuring  farm  programs,  saving  taxpayers   money  and  increasing  farmer  independence. Compared  to  an  overall  economy  that  is  recovering  slowly,  the  American  agricultural  sector  is  improving   dramatically.  The  record-­‐breaking  prosperity  of  American  farmers  and  farm  communities  is  to  be  celebrated.  But  it   also  calls  for  a  re-­‐examination  of  federal  agricultural  programs  that  spend  billions  each  year.  Taxpayers  should  not   finance  payments  for  a  business  sector  that  is  more  than  capable  of  thriving  on  its  own.   Net  farm  income  this  year  is  forecast  to  be  modestly  lower  than  last  year’s  very  high  level,  but  it  would  still  be  the   third  highest  inflation-­‐adjusted  income  level  recorded  since  1980.24  Production  costs  have  risen,  but  farmer   incomes  continue  to  be  supported  by  strong  prices  for  most  crop  and  livestock  commodities.  The  top  five  earnings   years  for  farmers  in  the  last  35  years  have  occurred  in  the  last  decade.  Yet,  at  the  same  time,  numerous  overlapping   government  programs  exist  to  provide  income  support  to  farmers. With  farm  profitability  –  and  deficits  –  continuing  at  high  levels,  it  is  time  to  adjust  support  to  this  industry  to  reflect   economic  realities.  This  budget  proposes  two  major  reforms  to  achieve  this:  First,  reduce  the  fixed  payments  that   go  to  farmers  irrespective  of  price  levels,  to  reflect  that  soaring  commodity  prices  are  reducing  the  need  for  high   levels  of  farm-­‐income  support.  Second,  reform  the  open-­‐ended  nature  of  the  government’s  support  for  crop   insurance,  so  that  agricultural  producers  assume  the  same  kind  of  responsibility  for  managing  risk  that  other   businesses  do.   Recognizing  that  the  Agriculture  Committee  is  responsible  for  implementing  these  reductions,  and  to  maintain   flexibility  for  the  Agriculture  Committee,  this  proposal  assumes  that  these  savings  do  not  take  effect  until  the   beginning  of  the  next  farm  bill.  These  reforms  will  save  taxpayers  roughly  $30  billion  over  the  next  decade.  24  “Farm  Income  and  Costs:  2012  Farm  Sector  Income  Forecast,”  U.S.  Department  of  Agriculture,  Economic  Research  Service,  accessed  March  19,  2012.    http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/FarmIncome/nationalestimates.htmHouse  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       34
    • REPAIRING  THE  SOCIAL  SAFETY  NET REPAIRING THE SOCIAL SAFETY NET KEY  POINTS The  unsustainable  government  programs  aimed  to  bolster  the  social  safety  net   are  failing  to  deliver  on  their  promise  to  society’s  most  vulnerable  citizens.   The  skewed  incentives  of  federal  safety-­‐net  programs  foster  dependence  and   leave  lower-­‐income  Americans  most  at  risk  to  consequences  of  the  looming   spending-­‐driven  debt  crisis.   This  budget  repairs  the  safety  net  by  returning  power  over  public-­‐assistance   programs  to  the  states,  directing  assistance  to  those  who  need  it  most,  and   strengthening  federal  education  and  job-­‐training  programs  to  help  Americans   get  back  on  their  feet. This  budget  gives  states  the  freedom  and  flexibility  to  tailor  a  Medicaid  program   that  fits  the  needs  of  their  unique  populations. This  budget  better  focuses  other  low-­‐income  assistance  programs,  including   food  stamps,  to  those  that  need  them  most,  realigning  incentives  to  ensure  these   programs  can  best  meet  their  critical  missions. This  budget  ensures  higher-­‐education  assistance  programs  are  put  on  a   sustainable  funding  path,  better  focusing  aid  on  those  in  need  and  better   addressing  the  root  drivers  of  tuition  inflation  for  all  students. This  budget  consolidates  dozens  of  overlapping  job-­‐training  programs  into   accountable  career  scholarships  so  that  workers  have  the  tools  to  thrive  in  the   21st  century  global  economy.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       35
    • House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       36
    • REPAIRING  THE  SOCIAL  SAFETY  NET The  Challenge:  A  Safety  Net  in  Danger  of  UnravelingThe  recent  downturn  has  imposed  great  economic  hardship  upon  millions  of  Americans.  Beyond  the  tumult  of  the  recent  recession  and  weak  recovery,  there  has  been  increasing  anxiety  for  working  families  amidst  rapid  changes  in  the  global  economy.  Technological  advancement  and  the  information  revolution  have  fostered  tremendous  productivity  gains,  yet  these  have  often  come  at  the  expense  of  dislocation  for  those  working  in  the  most-­‐affected  industries.  Government  policies  have  imposed  additional  barriers  to  success  on  lower-­‐income  Americans.  Failing  schools  have  widened  achievement  gaps,  and  rising  health  care  costs  have  eroded  the  value  of  paychecks.  And  some  aspects  of  the  safety  net  impose  barriers  of  their  own.  For  instance,  the  elimination  of  certain  benefits  as  income  rises  has  the  effect  of  imposing  a  tax  that  discourages  some  low-­‐income  Americans  from  seeking  lives  of  independence  and  self-­‐sufficiency.Republicans,  Democrats  and  independents  all  believe  in  a  sturdy  safety  net  for  those  who,  through  no  fault  of  their  own,  have  fallen  on  hard  times.  The  debate  is  over  how  best  to  strengthen  and  improve  it.  In  particular,  it  is  essential  to  prevent  benefit  structures  from  becoming  barriers  to  upward  mobility.  The  safety-­‐net  system  created  in  the  last  century  is  in  dire  need  of  a  new  round  of  reform.  Government  programs  that  aim  to  support  the  safety  net  are  failing  the  citizens  who  rely  on  them  and  the  taxpayers  who  fund  them.  A  system  designed  for  mid-­‐20th  century  demographics  and  economics  is  ill  equipped  to  deal  with  the  unique  pressures  of  the  21st  century.  From  a  budgetary  perspective,  these  programs  are  growing  at  an  unsustainable  rate.  The  recent  economic  downturn  greatly  increased  the  eligibility  and  the  demand  for  government  assistance  programs.  Yet  even  prior  to  the  2008  financial  crisis,  and  controlling  for  economic  performance,  there  has  been  a  dramatic  increase  in  government  spending  on  public  assistance  programs.  Medicaid  spending  grows,  on  average,  9  percent  a  year  –  far  faster  than  the  growth  of  the  overall  economy.  And  federal  spending  on  food  stamps  has  quadrupled  over  the  past  ten  years.  Unless  reforms  are  enacted  to  put  these  programs  on  sustainable  footing,  these  skyrocketing  rates  of  spending  will  threaten  the  safety  net  with  a  debt  crisis  that  leads  to  forced  austerity.  From  a  moral  perspective,  while  well-­‐intentioned,  the  paternalistic  structures  of  these  programs  fail  the  very  people  they  are  intended  to  help.  Many  of  these  government  programs  –  designed  by  distant  government  agencies,  financed  through  outdated  government  formulas,  and  administered  by  unresponsive  government  bureaucrats  –  are  slow  to  adjust  to  the  changing  needs  of  unique  communities.  Worse,  government’s  expansive  reach  too  often  undermines  non-­‐governmental  institutions  better  suited  to  assist  individuals  in  need,  because  it  substitutes  federal  power  in  their  place.  Government  programs  should  bolster  –  not  displace  –  the  family,  civic  and  religious  institutions  that  serve  communities  across  the  nation.The  strains  that  many  of  these  well-­‐intentioned  programs  have  placed  on  the  nation  have  reached  a  breaking  point.  MedicaidMedicaid,  the  program  created  50  years  ago  to  provide  health  care  coverage  for  the  poor,  is  coming  apart  at  the  seams.  The  open-­‐ended  nature  of  the  program’s  current  financing  structure  has  created  rapidly  rising  costs  that  are  nearly  impossible  to  check.  In  1966,  the  first  year  of  the  program’s  operation,  total  costs  were  $400  million.  By  2009,  the  total  cost  of  administering  Medicaid  had  soared  to  $378.6  billion.  Absent  fundamental  reform,  total  annual  costs  are  expected  to  continue  climbing  and  reach  a  total  of  $804  billion  by  2019 25.  25  Centers  for  Medicare  and  Medicaid  Services,  “2012  Actuarial  Report  on  the  Financial  Outlook  for  Medicaid”  Office  of  the  Actuary,  December  21,  2010.  p.19.  http://www.cms.gov/ActuarialStudies/downloads/MedicaidReport2010.pdfHouse  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       37
    • Moreover,  much  of  this  spending  is  wasted,  because  the  bureaucracy  cannot  provide  adequate  oversight  of  this  open-­‐ended  program.  Medicaid’s  improper  payment  rate  is  over  10  percent,  more  than  three  times  the  amount  of  waste  that  other  federal  agencies  generate.  This  translates  into  a  combined  $33  billion  worth  of  waste  each  year.26  Medicaid’s  current  structure  gives  states  a  perverse  incentive  to  grow  the  program  and  little  incentive  to  save.  The  federal  government  pays  an  average  of  57  cents  of  every  dollar  spent  on  Medicaid. 27  Expanding  Medicaid  coverage  during  boom  years  can  be  tempting  for  state  governments  since  they  pay  less  than  half  the  cost.  Conversely,  to  restrain  Medicaid’s  growth,  states  trying  to  rescind  a  dollar’s  worth  of  coverage  only  save  themselves  43  cents. 28  Moreover,  states  are  not  given  adequate  flexibility  to  achieve  savings,  even  though  many  governors  have  asked  for  a  new  approach.29  Instead,  one-­‐size-­‐fits-­‐all  federal  mandates  don’t  permit  innovative  coverage  options,  and  many  times  the  only  way  states  are  allowed  to  achieve  savings  is  through  formulaic  cuts  to  medical  providers.  Many  doctors  are  refusing  to  treat  Medicaid  patients,  because  states  have  reduced  their  reimbursements  below  what  it  costs  to  treat  them.30  Doctors  who  still  see  Medicaid  patients  at  below-­‐market  reimbursement  rates  are  forced  to  shift  their  loss  to  non-­‐Medicaid  patients,  contributing  in  effect  to  the  health  cost  inflation  that  is  currently  putting  quality,  affordable  health  coverage  out-­‐of-­‐reach  for  an  increasing  number  of  Americans.31  As  a  shared  program  between  the  states  and  the  federal  government,  the  program’s  unsustainable  growth  is  putting  enormous  stress  on  both  federal  and  state  balance  sheets.  CBO  estimates  that  federal  spending  on  Medicaid  will  grow  from  nearly  $276  billion  in  2013  and  to  nearly  $622  billion  over  the  next  ten  years.  This  translates  into  an  annual  growth  rate  of  9  percent  over  that  period.32  Should  policymakers  continue  to  ignore  this  problem,  two  outcomes  are  inevitable:  significant  cuts  in  benefits  that  will  restrict  access  and  massive  tax  increases  that  will  stifle  growth.  All  Americans  will  pay  more  because  this  Medicaid  system  has  broken  down  –  and  not  just  in  higher  taxes.  Because  Medicaid’s  reimbursement  rates  have  been  ratcheted  down  to  below-­‐market  levels,  the  quality  of  care  that  Medicaid  patients  receive  is  declining  below  standard.  Recent  studies  have  indicated  that  Medicaid  patients  are  more  likely  to  die  after  coronary  artery  bypass  surgery,  less  likely  to  get  standard  care  for  blocked  heart  arteries,  and  more  likely  to  die  from  treatable  cancer,  than  those  with  other  coverage  options. 33  By  some  measures,  such  as  in-­‐hospital  death  rates  following  major  surgeries,  Medicaid  patients  fared  even  worse  than  the  uninsured.3426  Government  Accountability  Office,  “Improper  Payments:  Progress  Made  but  Challenges  Remain  in  Estimating  and  Reducing  Improper  Payments,”  GAO-­‐09-­‐628T,  April  22,  2009,  p.  12.  http://www.gao.gov/assets/130/122319.pdf27  Department  of  Health  and  Human  Services,  “Financing  and  Reimbursement”,  Medicaid.gov.http://www.medicaid.gov/Medicaid-­‐CHIP-­‐Program-­‐Information/By-­‐Topics/Financing-­‐and-­‐Reimbursement/Financing-­‐and-­‐Reimbursement.html28  Ibid.29  A  New  Medicaid:  A  Flexible,  Innovative  and  Accountable  Future,  Republican  Governors  Public  Policy  Committee,  Health  Care  Task  Force,  August  30,  2011.  http://rgppc.com/rgppc-­‐medicaid-­‐report/  30  Kevin  Sack,  “As  Medicaid  Payments  Shrink,  Patients  Are  Abandoned,”  New  York  Times,  March  15,  2010.  http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/16/health/policy/16medicaid.html31  Doug  Rapp,  “Low  Medicare,  Medicaid  Pay  Rates  Impact  Private  Costs.”  American  Medical  News,  January  5,  2009.  http://www.ama-­‐assn.org/amednews/2009/01/05/gvsb0105.htm  32  Congressional  Budget  Office,  “Medicaid  Spending  and  Enrollment  Detail  for  CBO’s  March  2012  Baseline.”  March  13,  2012.  http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43059_Medicaid.pdf33  Scott  Gottlieb,  M.D.,  “Medicaid  Is  Worse  Than  No  Coverage  at  All.”  Wall  Street  Journal,  March  10,  2011.    34  Ibid.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       38
    • Medicaid  has  fostered  an  unfair  two-­‐class  system  within  the  health  care  marketplace  that  stigmatizes  Medicaid  enrollees,  and  its  perverse  funding  structure  is  exacerbating  budget  pressures  at  the  state  and  federal  level,  while  creating  a  mountain  of  waste.  With  administrators  looking  to  control  costs  and  providers  refusing  to  participate  in  a  system  that  severely  under-­‐reimburses  their  services,  Medicaid  beneficiaries  are  left  on  their  own  to  navigate  an  increasingly  complex  system  for  even  the  most  basic  procedures.  Absent  reform,  Medicaid  will  not  be  able  to  deliver  on  its  promise  to  provide  a  sturdy  health  care  safety  net  for  society’s  most  vulnerable.  Supplemental  Nutrition  Assistance  Program  (Food  Stamps)The  Supplemental  Nutritional  Assistance  Program  (SNAP,  formerly  known  as  food  stamps)  serves  an  important  role  in  the  safety  net  by  providing  food  aid  to  low-­‐income  Americans.  But  this  program  cannot  continue  to  grow  at  its  current  rates.  The  cost  has  exploded  in  the  last  decade,  from  less  than  $18  billion  in  2001  to  over  $80  billion  today.  As  recently  as  2007,  SNAP  was  projected  to  cost  slightly  less  than  $400  billion  over  ten  years.  Currently,  the  ten-­‐year  projection  has  risen  to  almost  $772  billion.  Much  of  this  is  due  to  the  recession,  but  not  all  of  it:  Enrollment  grew  from  17.3  million  recipients  in  2001,  to  23.8  million  in  2004,  to  28.2  million  in  2008,  to  46.6  million  today.  According  the  U.S.  Department  of  Agriculture,  “The  historical  relationship  between  unemployment  and  SNAP  caseloads  diverged  in  the  middle  of  the  decade  …  As  the  unemployment  rate  fell  1.4  percentage  points  between  2003  and  2007,  SNAP  caseloads  increased  by  22  percent.”35  The  trend  is  one  of  relentless  and  unsustainable  growth  in  good  years  and  bad.  The  large  recession-­‐driven  spike  came  on  top  of  very  large  increases  that  occurred  during  years  of  economic  growth,  when  the  number  of  recipients  should  have  fallen.  This  unsustainable  cost  growth  is  the  result  of  the  same  flawed  structure  that  has  fueled  unsustainable  growth  in  Medicaid.  State  governments  receive  federal  dollars  in  proportion  to  how  many  people  they  enroll  in  the  program,  which  gives  them  an  incentive  to  add  more  individuals  to  the  rolls.  State  governments  have  little  incentive  to  make  sure  that  able-­‐bodied  adults  on  SNAP  are  working,  looking  for  work,  or  enrolled  in  job  training  programs.  This  leads  to  a  program  rife  with  waste,  fraud  and  abuse.  In  the  past  year,  Michigan  has  had  two  lottery  winners  continue  to  receive  SNAP  benefits.36  In  New  York,  former  and  current  New  York  City  employees  created  false  names,  addresses  and  Social  Security  numbers  to  create  approximately  1,500  false  SNAP  cards.37  These  individuals  netted  $8  million.  And,  under  the  leadership  of  Chairman  Darrell  Issa,  the  House  Oversight  Committee  has  uncovered  dozens  of  additional  examples  of  abuse,  such  as  recipients  collaborating  with  vendors  to  trade  food  stamps  for  cash,  cigarettes  and  alcohol.38  This  kind  of  abuse  must  stop.  By  providing  states  with  incentives  to  reduce  fraud  and  abuse,  the  federal  government  can  ensure  its  SNAP  dollars  address  hunger  and  malnutrition  in  the  United  States  without  lining  the  pockets  of  criminals.Education  and  Job  TrainingGlobalization  and  technological  advances  have  made  the  modern  economy  more  complex  and  dynamic.  The  new  reality  is  workers  at  all  levels  must  be  ready  to  update  or  learn  new,  more  specialized  skills  to  match  the  changing  needs  of  employers  competing  in  the  global  economy.  Federal  higher  education  and  job-­‐training  programs  must  be  reformed  to  help  workers  adapt  to  this  new  challenge.  35  Margaret  Andrews  and  David  Smallwood,  “What’s  Behind  the  Rise  in  SNAP  Participation,”  Amber  Waves,  March,  2012.    http://www.ers.usda.gov/AmberWaves/March12/Features/SNAPRise.htm  36  Ed  White,  “Lottery  winner.  Food  stamps.  In  Michigan.  Again,”  Associated  Press,  March  9,  2012.  http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-­‐News-­‐Wires/2012/0309/Lottery-­‐winner.-­‐Food-­‐stamps.-­‐In-­‐Michigan.-­‐Again  37  Colin  Moynihan,  “Four  Charged  With  Stealing  $8  Million  in  Food  Stamp  Scam,”  New  York  Times,  December  8,  2010.    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/09/nyregion/09hra.html  38  Darrell  Issa,  Chairman  of  the  House  Committee  on  Oversight  and  Government  Reform,  to  Tom  Vilsack,  Secretary  of  Agriculture,  February  6,  2012.  http://oversight.house.gov/wp-­‐content/uploads/2012/03/2012-­‐02-­‐06_DEI_to_Vilsack-­‐USDA_-­‐_SNAP_program_due_2-­‐21.pdf    House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       39
    • Current  federal  aid  structures  are  exacerbating  a  crisis  in  tuition  inflation,  plunging  students  and  their  families  into  unaffordable  levels  of  debt  or  foreclosing  the  possibility  of  any  higher  education  at  all.  This  problem  has  been  building  for  years  and  has  officially  reached  crisis  levels.  In  June  2010,  student  loan  debt  surpassed  the  national  level  of  credit  card  debt  for  the  first  time  in  history.  The  graduating  class  of  2011  is  the  most  indebted  to  date,  with  an  average  per  student  debt  of  $22,900.39  These  young  adults  are  graduating  with  enormous  loan  repayments  and  having  difficulty  finding  jobs  in  our  low-­‐growth  economic  environment.  Instead  of  solving  the  problem,  schools  are  deflecting  the  mounting  criticism  by  blaming  the  rising  cost  of  health  care  and  employee  benefits,  the  need  to  compete  for  students  by  offering  nicer  facilities,  and  reductions  in  state  subsidies  and  endowments  as  a  result  of  the  recession. 40  While  these  do  represent  contributing  factors,  they  are  merely  accelerating  a  long-­‐standing  problem.  College  costs  have  risen  at  twice  the  rate  of  inflation  for  about  thirty  years,  but  this  year  fees  soared  8.3  percent  –  more  than  double  the  inflation  rate  –  as  federal  subsidies  have  increased  at  a  historic  pace.  41  But,  instead  of  helping  more  students  achieve  their  dreams,  studies  have  shown  that  increased  federal  financial  aid  is  simply  being  absorbed  by  tuition  increases.  While  financial  aid  is  intended  to  make  college  more  affordable,  there  is  growing  evidence  that  it  has  had  the  opposite  effect.  Economists  such  as  Richard  Vedder  point  out  that  the  decisions  of  colleges  and  universities  to  raise  their  prices  would  have  been  constrained  if  the  federal  government  had  not  stepped  in  so  often  to  subsidize  rising  tuitions. 42  When  it  comes  to  job  training  and  continuing  education,  the  current  policy  landscape  is  dotted  with  failed,  unaccountable  and  duplicative  programs.  There  are  at  least  49  such  programs  spread  across  nine  agencies,  costing  up  to  $18  billion  annually.  A  2011  Government  Accountability  Office  (GAO)  report  found  that  almost  all  federal  employment  and  training  programs  overlap  one  or  more  similar  programs,  providing  similar  services  to  similar  populations,  and  only  five  of  these  programs  have  ever  been  evaluated  for  effectiveness.  Beyond  the  ineffectiveness  and  duplication,  Senators  Coburn  and  McCain  issued  a  report  in  February  2011  that  highlights  the  numerous  examples  of  waste,  fraud  and  abuse  that  this  system  has  become  known  for.43The  Successful  Example  of  Welfare  ReformEmpowerment  is  a  powerful  alternative  to  dependency,  and  recent  history  offers  a  guide  to  policymakers  seeking  to  repair  the  safety  net.  Bipartisan  efforts  in  the  late  1990s  transformed  cash  welfare  by  encouraging  work,  limiting  the  duration  of  benefits,  and  giving  states  more  control  over  the  money  being  spent.  Opponents  of  these  policy  changes  argued  that  welfare  reform  would  lead  to  large  increases  in  poverty  and  despair.  Instead,  the  opposite  occurred.  The  Temporary  Assistance  for  Needy  Families  (TANF)  reforms  cut  welfare  caseloads  in  half  as  poverty  rates  declined.  In  stark  contrast  to  critics’  fears,  child-­‐poverty  rates  fell  1  percent  per  year  in  the  five  years  following  the  passage  of  TANF  in  1996.39Mark  Whitehouse,  “Number  of  the  Week:  Class  of  2011,  Most  Indebted  Ever,”  Real  Time  Economics  (blog),  Wall  Street  Journal,  May  7,  2011.http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/05/07/number-­‐of-­‐the-­‐week-­‐class-­‐of-­‐2011-­‐most-­‐indebted-­‐ever/  40  Jane  V.  Wellman,  Statement  before  the  House  Subcommittee  on  Higher  Education  and  Training,  Keeping  College  Within  Reach,  November  30,  2011.    http://edworkforce.house.gov/UploadedFiles/11.30.11_wellman.pdf41  Patrick  M.  Callan,  “College  Affordability:  Colleges,  States  Increase  Financial  Burdens  on  Students  and  Families,”  Measuring  Up.    http://measuringup.highereducation.org/commentary/collegeaffordability.cfm42Dr.  Richard  K.  Vedder,  remarks  before  the  House  Committee  on  Education  and  the  Workforce,  College  Access:  Is  Government  Part  of  the  Solution,  Or  Part  of  the  Problem?  April  19,  2005.  http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-­‐109hhrg20645/html/CHRG-­‐109hhrg20645.htm  43  Senator  Tom  A.  Coburn,  “Help  Wanted:  How  Federal  Job  Training  Programs  Are  Failing  Workers,”  February,  2011.  http://www.coburn.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?a=Files.Serve&File_id=9f1e1249-­‐a5cd-­‐42aa-­‐9f84-­‐269463c51a7dHouse  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       40
    • These  reforms  worked  because  the  best  welfare  program  is  temporary  and  ends  with  a  job  and  a  stable,  independent  life  for  the  beneficiary.  At  the  federal  level,  the  successful  welfare-­‐reform  movement  of  the  1990s  was  narrowly  focused  on  cash  welfare  payments.  Based  on  the  lessons  learned  from  welfare  reform,  now  is  the  time  to  implement  similar  reforms  across  other  areas  of  the  social  safety  net,  especially  Medicaid,  SNAP  and  other  programs  that  have  not  been  significantly  reformed  since  they  were  created.    If  government  is  to  require  able-­‐bodied  recipients  of  aid  to  find  work,  as  it  should,  then  it  must  also  help  them  return  to  productive  working  lives.  To  that  end,  federal  education  and  job-­‐training  programs  need  to  be  modernized  to  keep  the  workforce  competitive  in  a  21st-­‐century,  global  economy.  Government  must  do  a  better  job  of  targeting  resources  to  make  sure  that  America’s  workforce  can  successfully  pursue  new  opportunities  and  adopt  new  skills,  if  necessary.   The  Choice:  Greater  Dependency  vs.  Upward  MobilityThe  President  and  his  party’s  leaders  have  taken  an  approach  to  public  assistance  that  encourages  greater  dependency  and  weakens  community  sources  of  support.  The  better  approach  is  to  remove  barriers  to  upward  mobility,  so  that  all  Americans  have  the  opportunity  to  rise.Greater  DependencyThe  President’s  top-­‐down  approach  reveals  a  misguided  view  of  the  proper  role  for  the  federal  government  in  building  community  bonds,  extending  the  ladder  of  opportunity  to  all,  and  strengthening  the  nation’s  safety  net.  His  policies  place  trust  in  an  empowered  federal  government  in  place  of  families,  local  communities,  and  faith-­‐based  groups,  sapping  the  latter  of  vitality  and  weakening  communities  in  the  process.  This  has  disastrous  consequences  for  the  most  vulnerable  Americans.  Centralized  bureaucracy  is  no  substitute  for  a  vibrant  civil  society  in  which  citizens  help  each  other  on  a  personal  basis.  The  President’s  policies  also  reveal  why  the  current  structure  of  public  assistance  programs  is  unsustainable.  The  health  care  law,  for  example,  is  propelling  the  Medicaid  crisis  to  a  reckoning  by  forcing  an  additional  20  million  Americans  by  2019  into  a  system  that  can  hardly  handle  its  current  enrollment.  The  same  flawed  incentives  distorting  Medicaid  have  also  exploded  the  cost  of  the  SNAP  program.  Like  Medicaid,  the  states  administer  the  SNAP  program,  but  unlike  Medicaid,  the  entire  cost  of  benefits  under  the  SNAP  program  is  born  by  the  federal  taxpayer.  And  this  administration  has  managed  to  make  a  bad  incentive  structure  worse.  The  2009  stimulus  bill  included  additional  funding  to  states  if  they  achieved  higher  enrollment  levels.  Unsurprisingly,  food-­‐stamp  use  is  up  by  46  percent  since  January  2009.  Total  spending  has  more  than  doubled  in  four  years.44  The  first  two  years  of  this  administration  were  marked  by  a  reckless  expansion  of  the  federal  government’s  obsolete  approach  to  education  and  job  training,  endangering  the  viability  of  advanced  education  services  for  those  most  in  need.  The  administration’s  budget  pushes  Pell  Grant  spending  toward  unsustainable  rates,  contributing  to  tuition  inflation  and  inhibiting  upward  mobility  and  access  to  better  opportunities.  Instead  of  proposing  a  sensible  consolidation  of  the  complex  web  of  job-­‐training  programs,  the  administration  has  sought  to  layer  on  new  government  programs,  regardless  of  whether  those  programs  are  training  workers  for  in-­‐demand  occupations.  For  example,  the  Labor  Department  Inspector  General’s  latest  audit  reveals  that  new  job-­‐training  programs  specializing  in  “green”  skills,  funded  by  $500  million  in  stimulus  funds,  resulted  in  a  mere  2  percent  of  trainees  placed  in  jobs  by  these  programs  being  retained  more  than  six  months.45  44  Alan  Bjerga  and  Jennifer  Oldham,  “Gingrich  Calling  Obama  ‘Food  Stamp  President’  Draws  Critics,”  Bloomberg  Businessweek  ,January  25,  2012.    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-­‐01-­‐25/gingrich-­‐calling-­‐obama-­‐food-­‐stamp-­‐president-­‐draws-­‐critics.html  45  Darrell  Issa,  Chairman  of  the  House  Committee  on  Oversight  and  Government  Reform,  to  Hilda  Solis,  Secretary  of  Labor,  January  20,2012.  http://oversight.house.gov/images/stories/Letters/2012-­‐01-­‐20_DEI_to_Solis-­‐DOL_-­‐_Green_Jobs_Program_due_2-­‐1.pdf  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       41
    • Upward  MobilityPoverty  can  never  be  reduced  in  the  absence  of  a  growing  economy  that  produces  jobs  and  facilitates  shared  prosperity.  No  economic  system  in  the  history  of  mankind  has  done  more  to  lift  up  the  poor  than  America’s  commitment  to  free  enterprise.  If  the  American  Idea  of  earning  success  through  work  and  enterprise  is  to  endure  through  the  21st  century,  policymakers  must  urgently  enact  reforms  to  get  Washington’s  fiscal  house  in  order,  spur  job  creation  and  promote  sustained  economic  growth.  Beyond  the  urgent  need  to  lift  the  crushing  burden  of  debt  and  advance  pro-­‐growth  reforms  that  spur  sustained  job  creation,  policymakers  must  reform  public  assistance  programs  to  be  more  responsive,  sustainable,  and  empowering  to  their  beneficiaries.  Government  can  play  a  positive  role  with  policies  that  help  the  less  fortunate  get  back  on  their  feet  and  offer  low-­‐income  Americans  the  opportunity  to  gain  control  over  their  lives.   • The  key  to  the  welfare  reform  of  the  late  1990s  was  Congress’s  decision  to  grant  states  the  ability  to  design   their  own  systems.  Congress  should  grant  them  the  same  flexibility  with  regard  to  Medicaid.   • Congress  should  extend  the  successes  of  welfare  reform  to  all  assistance  programs  aimed  at  empowering   lower-­‐income  Americans  by  implementing  reforms  that  give  states  more  flexibility  to  meet  the  needs  of  low-­‐ income  populations  and  to  make  sure  that  the  truly  needy  receive  the  assistance  they  need  to  live  meaningful,   independent  lives. • Imposing  time  limits  and  work  requirements  on  federal  need-­‐based  aid  is  a  positive  reform.  But  education   programs  must  be  accountable  and  job-­‐training  programs  must  be  effective  so  that  vulnerable  citizens  can  take   advantage  of  them.  Above  all,  the  role  of  policymakers  must  be  to  lift  government-­‐imposed  barriers  to  stronger  communities  and  flourishing  lives.  Fiscal  responsibility  and  economic  opportunity  are  but  means  to  a  more  critical  end:  the  rebuilding  of  broken  communities  and  the  empowerment  of  families  and  citizens.  The  ever-­‐expansive  activism  of  the  federal  government  drains  the  vitality  and  displaces  the  primacy  of  the  bedrock  institutions  that  define  America. The  Solution:  Repairing  the  Social  Safety  NetRepairing  a  Broken  Medicaid  System• Secure  Medicaid  benefits  by  converting  the  federal  share  of  Medicaid  spending  into  a  block  grant  indexed  for   inflation  and  population  growth.  This  reform  ends  the  misguided  one-­‐size-­‐fits-­‐all  approach  that  has  tied  the   hands  of  so  many  state  governments.  States  will  no  longer  be  shackled  by  federally  determined  program   requirements  and  enrollment  criteria.  Instead,  they  will  have  the  freedom  and  flexibility  to  tailor  Medicaid   programs  that  fit  the  needs  of  their  unique  populations.  • Improve  the  health  care  safety  net  for  low-­‐income  Americans  by  giving  states  the  ability  to  offer  their   Medicaid  beneficiaries  more  options  and  better  access  to  care.  Medicaid  recipients,  like  all  Americans,  deserve   to  choose  their  own  doctors  and  make  their  own  health  care  decisions,  instead  of  having  Washington  dictate   those  decisions  to  them.  • Constraining  Medicaid’s  growing  cost  trajectory  by  $810  billion  over  ten  years,  contributing  to  the  long-­‐term   stability  of  the  federal  government’s  fiscal  condition  and  easing  the  largest  and  fastest  growing  burden  on   state  budgets.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       42
    • Medicaid  provides  a  revealing  case  study  in  how  structural  flaws  in  government  health  care  programs  are  harming   the  very  people  these  programs  are  meant  to  assist.  In  response  both  to  budget  constraints  imposed  by  Medicaid’s   growth  and  policy  constraints  imposed  by  numerous  federal  mandates,  state  governments  systematically  underpay   doctors  and  hospitals  –  making  across-­‐the-­‐board  cuts  to  a  one-­‐size-­‐fits-­‐all  program  instead  of  implementing  smart   reforms  that  allow  states  to  carefully  tailor  benefits.  As  a  result,  doctors  and  nurses  are  fleeing  the  system  to  escape   endless  red  tape  and  underpayments.  Meanwhile,  beneficiaries  are  left  with  fewer  provider  choices  and  reduced   access  to  care.   Worse,  the  one-­‐size-­‐fits-­‐all  mandates  Washington  forces  on  states  have  almost  eliminated  local  government’s   flexibility  to  manage  care  in  their  communities.  This  has  led  to  lower  quality  care,  restricted  access,  and  financial   trade-­‐offs  that  leave  beneficiaries  and  taxpayers  worse  off.     Offering  states  more  flexibility  for  their  Medicaid  beneficiaries  will  remove  the  stigma  recipients  face  and  allow   them  to  take  advantage  of  a  range  of  options.  Several  of  the  nation’s  governors  have  made  innovative  proposals  to   fix  Medicaid.  This  budget  pursues  reforms  in  this  direction.  Protecting  Assistance  for  Those  in  Need• Convert  the  Supplemental  Nutrition  Assistance  Program  (SNAP)  into  a  block  grant  tailored  for  each  state’s   low-­‐income  population,  indexed  for  inflation  and  eligibility  beginning  in  2016  –  after  employment  has   recovered.  Make  aid  contingent  on  work  or  job  training.  • Begin  devolving  other  low-­‐income  assistance  programs  to  the  states.  State  governments  can  better  tailor   assistance  programs  to  their  specific  populations,  providing  a  more  robust  safety  net  and  reducing  waste  in   these  programs.   With  regard  to  federal  low-­‐income  assistance  programs,  starting  with  SNAP,  this  budget  proposes  two  of  the   reforms  that  led  to  the  success  of  welfare  reform  in  the  late  1990s.   First,  the  budget  ends  the  flawed  incentive  structure  that  rewards  states  for  signing  up  ever-­‐higher  numbers  of   recipients.  By  capping  the  open-­‐ended  federal  subsidy  and  freeing  states  to  come  up  with  innovative  approaches  to   delivering  aid  to  those  who  truly  need  it,  this  reform  encourages  states  to  reduce  rolls  and  help  recipients  find  work.   Second,  it  calls  for  time  limits  and  work  requirements  like  those  that  proved  successful  at  cutting  welfare  rolls  in   half  and  reducing  poverty  nationwide.  These  changes  would  be  phased  in  gradually,  however,  to  give  states  and   recipients  opportunity  to  adjust  and  the  employment  time  to  recover.  Preparing  the  Workforce  for  a  21st  Century  Economy• Reform  the  Credit  Reform  Act  to  reflect  the  true  cost  of  federal  student-­‐loan  programs  that  are  driving  up  the   cost  of  tuition. In  2010,  the  government  went  from  primarily  guaranteeing  private  student  loans  to  lending  100  percent  of  its   student-­‐loan  money  directly  through  the  Department  of  Education,  turning  the  agency  into  one  of  the  largest   lending  banks  in  the  country.  These  student  loan  funds  have  to  be  borrowed  from  global  credit  markets  at  an   average  of  at  least  $100  billion  per  year,  adding  to  already  dangerous  federal  debt  levels.  Even  more  problematic,   according  to  outdated  current  scoring  rules,  these  extremely  risky  loans  appear  as  profit-­‐making  investments  in  the   federal  government’s  books,  thus  encouraging  more  loan  expansion,  even  though  there  is  evidence  that  subsidized   lending  contributes  to  tuition  inflation.  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       43
    • Accounting  for  market  risk  in  the  scoring  of  these  programs  would  simultaneously  reflect  their  true  cost  to   taxpayers  and  make  risky  expansions  of  these  programs  less  likely  to  occur.  To  that  end,  this  budget  authorizes  the   use  of  fair-­‐value  accounting  principles  for  any  legislation  dealing  with  federal  loan  and  loan-­‐guarantee  programs.46  • Return  Pell  Grants  to  a  sustainable  funding  path  to  ensure  aid  is  available  for  the  truly  needy  and  to  curb   tuition  inflation  for  all  students.   Even  the  President’s  budget  acknowledges  that  college  costs  are  on  an  unsustainable  path.  Furthermore,  recent   studies  have  demonstrated  that  increases  in  Pell  Grants  appear  to  be  matched  nearly  one  for  one  by  increases  in   tuition  at  private  universities.47  This  budget  puts  Pell  on  a  sustainable  path  by  limiting  the  growth  of  financial  aid   and  focusing  it  on  low-­‐income  students  who  need  it  the  most.  This  will  force  schools  to  reform  and  adapt.  It  will  also   ensure  that  Pell  spending  goes  to  students  who  truly  need  it.   Moreover,  federal  intervention  in  higher  education  should  increasingly  be  focused  not  solely  on  financial  aid,  but  on   policies  that  maximize  innovation  and  ensure  a  robust  menu  of  institutional  options  from  which  students  and  their   families  are  able  to  choose.    Such  policies  should  include  reexamining  the  data  made  available  to  students  to  make   certain  they  are  armed  with  information  that  will  assist  them  in  making  their  postsecondary  decisions.    Additionally,   the  federal  government  should  act  to  remove  regulatory  barriers  in  higher  education  that  act  to  restrict  flexibility   and  innovative  teaching,  particularly  as  it  relates  to  non-­‐traditional  models  such  as  online  coursework.    • Consolidate  dozens  of  overlapping  job-­‐training  programs  into  accountable  career  scholarships  to  improve   access  to  career  development  assistance  and  strengthen  the  first  rung  on  the  ladder  out  of  poverty. This  budget  advances  reforms  to  increase  job-­‐training  outcomes  across  the  board.  It  builds  on  past  improvements,   as  well  as  legislation  recently  introduced  by  Republican  members  of  the  Education  and  the  Workforce  Committee   under  the  leadership  of  Chairman  John  Kline. 48  It  improves  accountability  by  calling  for  the  consolidation  of   duplicative  federal  job-­‐training  programs  into  a  streamlined  workforce  development  system  with  fewer  funding   streams  that  provide  accountable,  targeted  career  scholarship  programs.  Instead  of  wasting  job-­‐training  money  on   duplicative  administrative  bureaucracy,  this  budget  calls  for  job-­‐training  programs  to  be  better  coordinated  with   each  other  –  and  with  the  Pell  program  –  to  maximize  every  dollar  for  those  who  need  it. This  budget  advances  improved  oversight  and  accountability  for  job-­‐training  programs  and  the  Pell  program  by   tracking  the  type  of  training  provided,  the  cost  per  student,  employment  after  training,  and  whether  or  not  trainees   are  working  in  the  field  for  which  they  were  trained.  These  programs  should  also  track  beneficiaries’  participation   levels  in  federal  support  programs  (e.g.,  welfare  and  SNAP)  before  and  up  to  five  years  after  training  to  determine  if   the  training  led  to  self-­‐sufficiency.  These  common-­‐sense  measures  will  enable  policymakers  to  determine  whether   private  and  non-­‐profit  institutions  are  training  beneficiaries  effectively.  46  For  more  detail,  see  “Reform  the  Credit  Reform  Act  to  incorporate  Fair  Value  accounting  principles”  in  the  Changing  Washington’s  Culture  of  Spending  chapter  of  this  report.47  Larry  D.  Singell,  Jr.,  and  Joe  A.  Stone.  “For  Whom  the  Pell  Tolls:  The  Response  of  University  Tuition  to  Federal  Grants-­‐in-­‐Aid.”  Oregon  University,  September,  2005.  http://pages.uoregon.edu/lsingell/Pell_Bennett.pdf  48  “H.R.  3610,  the  Streamlining  Workforce  Development  Programs  Act”  House  Education  and  Workforce  Committee,  December  8,  2011.  http://edworkforce.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=271811  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       44
    • STRENGTHENING  HEALTH  AND  RETIREMENT  SECURITY STRENGTHENING HEALTH AND RETIREMENT SECURITY KEY  POINTS The  future  of  the  nation’s  health  and  retirement  security  programs  is  increasingly   based  on  empty  promises  from  a  government  unwilling  to  advance  solutions  that   save  and  strengthen  them. This  budget  strengthens  health  and  retirement  security  by  taking  power  away   from  government  bureaucrats  and  empowering  patients  with  control  over  their   care. This  budget  repeals  the  new  health  care  law’s  unaccountable  board  of   bureaucrats  empowered  to  cut  Medicare  in  ways  that  would  jeopardize  seniors’   access  to  care. This  budget  saves  Medicare  for  current  and  future  generations,  with  no   disruptions  for  those  in  and  near  retirement.   For  younger  workers,  when  they  become  eligible,  Medicare  will  provide  a   premium-­‐support  payment  and  a  list  of  guaranteed  coverage  options  –  including   a  traditional  fee-­‐for-­‐service  option  –  from  which  recipients  can  choose  a  plan  that   best  suits  their  needs. Program  growth  would  be  determined  by  a  competitive  bidding  process  –  with   choice  and  competition  forcing  providers  to  reduce  costs  and  improve  quality  for   seniors. Premium  support,  competitive  bidding,  and  more  assistance  for  those  with  lower   incomes  or  greater  health  care  needs  will  ensure  guaranteed  affordability  for  all   seniors.     This  budget  also  establishes  a  mechanism  that  requires  action  by  the  President   and  leaders  in  Congress  to  shore  up  Social  Security’s  fiscal  imbalance.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       45
    • House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       46
    • STRENGTHENING  HEALTH  AND  RETIREMENT  SECURITY The  Challenge:  Empty  Promises  Turning  Into  Broken  PromisesOver  the  past  century,  the  federal  government  has  forged  a  social  contract  with  working  families  to  furnish  a  strong  and  stable  base  of  health  and  retirement  security  for  America’s  seniors.  Medicare  is  a  critical  program  that  helps  seniors  to  achieve  health  security.  Social  Security  delivers  a  minimum  level  of  income  security  for  retirees,  those  with  disabilities,  and  survivors.But  the  failure  of  politicians  in  Washington  to  be  honest  about  Medicare  and  Social  Security  is  putting  the  health  and  retirement  security  of  all  Americans  at  risk.  The  fact  is  that  Medicare  and  Social  Security  are  in  dire  need  of  reform  if  these  20th  century  programs  will  be  able  to  deliver  on  their  promise  in  the  21st  century.  With  both  programs  weighed  down  by  tens  of  trillions  of  dollars  of  unfunded  liabilities,  the  federal  government  is  making  promises  to  current  workers  about  their  health  and  retirement  security  for  which  it  has  no  means  to  pay.  Without  reform,  these  empty  promises  will  soon  become  broken  promises.Washington’s  policy  response  to  the  demographic  and  economic  pressures  threatening  Medicare  and  Social  Security  has  been  a  disappointing  failure.  For  too  long,  politicians  of  both  parties  have  lacked  the  political  will  to  deal  with  the  underlying  structural  issues  that  are  weakening  these  programs.  Instead,  they  have  denied  the  problem  or  made  the  problem  worse.   • In  Medicare,  government  has  tried  and  failed  to  address  cost  pressures  by  cutting  provider  payments  in  ways   that  hurt  quality  and  restrict  access  for  seniors.  Absent  reform,  current  seniors  will  experience  diminished  care,   while  the  next  generation  will  inherit  a  bankrupt  Medicare  program.   • In  Social  Security,  government’s  refusal  to  deal  with  demographic  realities  has  endangered  the  solvency  of  this   critical  program.  Absent  reform,  seniors,  those  with  disabilities,  and  their  families  will  experience  sharp  benefit   cuts  when  the  trust  fund  is  exhausted  in  2036,  while  the  next  generation  will  inherit  a  Social  Security  program   too  unstable  to  permit  them  to  plan  for  their  own  retirement  with  confidence.Unfortunately,  years  of  neglect  by  policymakers  who  were  unwilling  to  confront  the  structural  challenges  posed  by  these  programs  are  pushing  Medicare  and  Social  Security  into  a  state  of  peril.  Left  unaddressed,  the  spending  pressures  in  these  programs  don’t  just  put  the  solvency  of  the  federal  government  at  risk  and  future  economic  growth  in  doubt  –  they  also  threaten  the  government’s  ability  to  protect  the  promise  of  health  and  retirement  security  for  millions  of  seniors  today,  as  well  as  for  generations  to  come.MedicareWith  the  creation  of  Medicare  in  1965,  the  United  States  made  a  commitment  to  help  fund  the  medical  care  of  elderly  Americans  without  exhausting  their  life  savings  or  the  assets  and  incomes  of  their  working  children  and  younger  relatives.  In  urging  the  creation  of  Medicare,  President  Kennedy  said  that  such  a  program  was  chiefly  needed  to  protect  people  who  had  worked  for  years  and  suddenly  found  all  their  savings  gone  because  of  a  costly  health  problem.49  Medicare’s  disastrous  structural  imbalance  puts  this  mission  at  risk,  as  beneficiaries’  access  to  quality,  affordable  care  will  be  severely  restricted  if  Medicare  is  left  on  its  present  course.  Unless  Congress  fixes  what’s  broken  in  Medicare,  without  breaking  what’s  working,  the  program  will  end  up  causing  what  it  was  created  to  avoid  –  millions  of  American  seniors  without  adequate  health  security  and  a  younger  working  generation  saddled  with  enormous  debts  to  pay  for  spending  commitments  that  cannot  be  sustained.49  President  John  F.  Kennedy,  Address  at  a  New  York  Rally  in  Support  of  the  President’s  Program  of  Medical  Care  for  the  Aged,  May  20,  1962.  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       47
    • The  current  Medicare  program  attempts  to  do  two  things  to  make  sure  that  all  seniors  have  secure,  affordable  health  insurance  that  works.  First,  recognizing  that  seniors  need  extra  protection  when  it  comes  to  health  coverage,  it  pools  risk  among  all  seniors  to  ensure  that  they  enjoy  secure  access  to  care.  Second,  Medicare  subsidizes  coverage  for  seniors  to  ensure  that  coverage  is  affordable.  Affordability  is  a  critical  goal,  but  the  subsidy  structure  of  Medicare  is  fundamentally  broken  and  drives  costs  in  the  wrong  direction.  The  open-­‐ended,  blank-­‐check  nature  of  the  Medicare  subsidy  drives  health  care  inflation  at  an  astonishing  pace,  threatens  the  solvency  of  this  critical  program,  and  creates  inexcusable  levels  of  waste  in  the  system.  Politicians’  repeated  failures  to  solve  this  problem  underscore  the  critical  need  for  structural  reform  to  ensure  lasting  solvency.  Time  and  again,  Congress  has  applied  band-­‐aids  to  control  costs  by  reducing  the  rate  at  which  doctors,  hospitals  and  other  providers  are  reimbursed  for  treating  Medicare  patients.  These  repeated  fee  reductions  create  backwards  incentives  for  those  providing  care,  resulting  in  the  volume  of  services  provided  for  each  condition  being  increased,  costs  being  shifted  onto  private  health  insurance  plans,  or  Medicare  patients  simply  losing  access  to  care.  The  incentive  to  increase  volume  results  in  waste,  fraud  and  abuse.  The  incentive  to  shift  costs  results  in  higher  costs  for  all  patients.  And  the  incentive  to  turn  Medicare  patients  away  results  in  restricted  access  to  critical  care  for  seniors.  Medicare  alone  is  currently  projected  to  rise  from  3.7  percent  of  GDP  to  14  percent  of  GDP  by  2085.  But  according  to  CBO,  the  trust  fund  that  sustains  Medicare  will  run  out  of  money  long  before  that  –  a  mere  ten  years  from  now.  The  unchecked  growth  of  the  Medicare  program  cannot  be  sustained,  and  the  government’s  continued  reliance  on  price  controls  will  only  make  matters  worse.  Washington’s  failure  to  advance  structural  reforms  threatens  not  just  the  affordability  of  coverage  for  seniors,  but  also  the  security  that  comes  with  knowing  that  coverage  can  be  obtained  at  any  price.  Social  SecurityIn  the  words  of  President  Franklin  D.  Roosevelt,  Social  Security  was  created  to  provide  an  antidote  to  the  “dreadful  consequence  of  economic  insecurity”  for  the  elderly  and  for  vulnerable  citizens  in  times  of  need.50  The  program  is  financed  through  a  pay-­‐as-­‐you-­‐go  system,  which  means  that  current  workers’  Social  Security  taxes  are  used  to  pay  benefits  for  current  retirees.  In  1935  when  Social  Security  was  enacted,  there  were  about  42  working-­‐age  Americans  for  each  retiree.  The  average  life  expectancy  at  birth  for  men  in  America  was  60  years;  for  women  it  was  64.  The  demographic  situation  has  changed  dramatically,  however,  since  the  creation  of  the  program.  This  evolution  in  the  demographic  composition  of  the  U.S.  population  was  accompanied  by  the  enactment  of  large  expansions  in  eligibility  for  benefits  and  of  taxes  to  finance  those  benefits.    In  1950,  there  were  2.9  million  beneficiaries.  Currently,  there  are  over  55  million  beneficiaries  –  an  eighteen-­‐fold  increase.51    When  the  program  was  created,  workers  and  their  employers  each  paid  a  1  percent  payroll  tax.  Today,  they  each  pay  a  6.2  percent  payroll  tax.The  explosion  of  payments  in  the  75  years  since  the  Social  Security  system  was  enacted  will  be  dwarfed  by  the  demographic  demands  of  the  very  near  future.  The  first  members  of  the  baby-­‐boom  generation  –  those  born  between  1946  and  1964  –  are  already  eligible  for  early  retirement.  At  the  same  time,  thanks  to  innovations  in  medical  technology  and  health  care,  life  expectancies  have  lengthened  to  an  average  75.9  years  for  men  and  80.6  years  for  women,  and  are  expected  to  grow  further.  This  unquestionably  positive  development  requires  policymakers  to  respond  with  reforms  that  ensure  that  this  20th-­‐Century  program  can  make  good  on  its  promise  in  the  21st  Century.Not  only  is  the  nation  aging,  but  there  has  also  been  a  demographic  shift  to  a  lower  retirement  age.  In  1945,  the  average  age  of  retirement  was  69.6  years.  In  2009,  it  was  63.8  years.50  President  Franklin  D.  Roosevelt,  Message  to  Congress  on  Social  Security,  January  17,  1935.  http://www.ssa.gov/history/fdrstmts.html51  “2011  OSADI  Trustees  Report,”  U.S.  Social  Security  Administration,  May  13,  2011.  http://www.ssa.gov/oact/TR/2011/index.html  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       48
    • To  put  this  in  perspective:  when  Social  Security  was  first  enacted  in  1935,  each  worker,  on  average,  was  contributing  less  than  2.5  percent  of  one  retiree’s  benefits.  By  2030,  each  wage  earner  will  be  paying  for  nearly  half  of  each  retired  person’s  full  benefits.  This  represents  a  massive  shift  of  earnings  away  from  younger  families  trying  to  build  for  their  futures,  toward  Social  Security  recipients.  No  economy  can  grow  and  thrive  under  that  heavy  a  tax  burden.  Those  who  wish  to  solve  this  problem  by  raising  taxes  often  ignore  the  economic  damage  that  such  large  tax  increases  would  entail.  Just  lifting  the  cap  on  income  subject  to  Social  Security  taxes,  as  some  have  proposed,  would,  when  combined  with  the  Obama  administration’s  other  preferred  tax  policies,  lift  the  top  marginal  tax  rate  to  over  50  percent.  Despite  having  a  limited  direct  impact  on  the  solvency  of  the  program,  these  tax  increases  would  impose  adverse  consequences  to  retirement  security  programs  by  weakening  their  most  critical  source  of  funding:  a  growing,  prosperous  economy.  Most  economists  agree  that  raising  marginal  tax  rates  that  high  would  create  a  significant  drag  on  economic  growth,  job  creation,  productivity  and  wages.  This  nation  cannot  fix  its  retirement-­‐security  system  by  leaving  young  families  with  nothing  to  save.  If  the  nation  acts  now,  those  in  and  near  retirement  can  enjoy  the  continuity  of  health  and  retirement  arrangements  around  which  they  have  organized  their  lives.  If  Washington  continues  to  play  politics  with  the  future  of  these  programs,  however,  then  it  won’t  just  be  future  generations  at  risk:  Current  retirees  will  also  find  their  benefits  subject  to  a  significant  reduction  of  23  percent  when  the  Social  Security  trust  funds  are  no  longer  able  to  pay  full  benefits.  Empty  promisesPolicymakers  have  known  about  these  problems  in  Medicare  and  Social  Security  for  decades,  but  few  have  been  willing  to  propose  real  solutions.  Yet  each  year  that  Congress  fails  to  act,  the  U.S.  government  gets  closer  to  breaking  promises  to  current  retirees  while  adding  to  a  growing  pile  of  empty  promises  made  to  future  generations.  America  has  seen  unfunded  obligations  much,  much  less  severe  than  these  take  down  some  of  its  proudest  companies.  In  industries  such  as  steel,  aviation  and  autos,  workers  lost  promised  benefits  when  their  employers  failed  to  take  timely,  responsible  steps  to  update  their  unworkable,  20th-­‐century  benefit  structures.  Many  workers  lost  their  jobs,  while  retirees  lost  the  critical  health  and  retirement  benefits  that  they  were  counting  on.  Unless  Congress  acts,  Americans  can  expect  the  same  thing  to  happen  to  Social  Security  and  Medicare.  Trustee  Reports  over  the  past  decades,  signed  by  presidential  appointees  of  both  parties,  have  urged  policymakers  to  act.  The  added  strain  from  the  severe  recession  has  had  the  same  effect  on  Medicare  and  Social  Security  as  experienced  by  the  private  sector.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       49
    • Medicare  is  on  a  similarly  unsustainable  path  –  the  Medicare  trend  line  illustrated  in  Figure  4  is  an  economic  impossibility.  Future  benefit  cuts  –  against  a  backdrop  of  skyrocketing  costs  –  are  a  certainty  if  the  program  goes  unreformed.   Americans  have  enough  instability  in   their  lives,  and  they  deserve  a  federal   health  and  retirement  safety  net  that   they  can  count  on.  If  Congress  wants  to   avoid  defaulting  on  federal  health  and   retirement  programs,  it  must  adopt  a   program  of  gradual  adjustment  now  –   one  that  frees  the  nation  from  the   shadow  of  debt,  strengthens  its  health   and  retirement  safety  net,  protects   those  in  or  near  retirement  from  any   disruptions  in  their  benefits,  and   supports  robust  economic  growth  and   job  creation.   Otherwise,  the  nation  will  face  more   significant,  unpopular,  and  immediate   overhauls  later.  As  Stephen  Goss,  Chief   Actuary  of  the  Social  Security   Administration,  put  it  in  a  House   Budget  Committee  hearing  this  year,   “Our  trustees  and  everybody  who   speaks  on  this  has  opined  extensively  about  the  value  of  acting  sooner  rather  than  later,  so  that  we  can  have  gradual  changes  phased  in  and  we  have  more  options  if  we  act  relatively  soon.”52 The  Choice:  Bankruptcy  and  Denied  Care  vs.  Strength  and  SolvencyThe  demographic  and  economic  drivers  of  the  nation’s  debt  are  well  known,  and  there  is  little  disagreement  about  the  nature  of  the  problem.  But  there  is  a  profound  disagreement  about  the  right  approach  to  dealing  with  these  problems.  One  approach  is  to  deny  that  these  problems  are  embedded  in  the  current  system,  rely  on  unelected  and  unaccountable  bureaucrats  to  save  money  by  restricting  access  to  health  care  services,  and  chase  ever-­‐higher  spending  commitments  with  ever-­‐higher  tax  increases.  The  other  approach  is  characterized  by  a  recognition  that  the  problems  are  structural  in  nature,  coupled  with  real  reforms  that  adjust  programs  to  demographic  reality  and  use  choice  and  competition  to  control  costs  and  improve  care  for  seniors.  Bankruptcy  and  Denied  CareThe  President’s  new  health  care  law  is  emblematic  of  the  wrong  way  to  address  the  problems  with  Medicare.  First,  the  overhaul  raided  Medicare  by  nearly  $700  billion  to  fund  a  new,  unsustainable,  open-­‐ended  health  care  entitlement.  Second,  it  created  a  government  panel  of  bureaucrats  with  the  power  to  impose  price  controls  on  providers  in  ways  that  would  result  in  rationed  care  and  restricted  access  to  treatments.  Meanwhile,  with  regard  to  Social  Security,  the  President  and  his  party’s  leaders  continue  to  ignore  the  problem.Raiding  Medicare:  The  trillion-­‐dollar  overhaul  of  the  U.S.  health  care  sector  enacted  by  the  last  Congress  was  filled  with  gimmicks  and  double-­‐counting  to  hide  its  true  cost.  The  most  egregious  example  of  this  was  the  way  the  overhaul’s  52  Stephen  Goss,  Testimony  before  U.S.  House  Budget  Committee,  Strengthening  Health  and  Retirement  Security,  February  28,  2012.  http://budget.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=282298  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       50
    • supporters  claimed  that  it  would  both  shore  up  the  Medicare  trust  fund  and  offset  the  cost  of  the  expensive  new  health  care  entitlement  that  the  new  law  created.  The  President  himself  announced  that  the  new  law  “actually  added  at  least  a  dozen  years  to  the  solvency  of  Medicare,”  while  also  claiming  that  it  wouldn’t  add  to  the  deficit 53.  But  at  a  House  Budget  Committee  hearing  last  year,  Medicare’s  chief  actuary,  Richard  Foster,  testified  that  it  would  be  impossible  for  the  new  law  to  do  both  unless  the  savings  were  double-­‐counted.  “Both  will  happen  as  a  result  of  the  same  one  set  of  savings,  under  Medicare,”  Foster  explained.  “But  it  takes  two  sets  of  money  to  make  it  happen…  when  we  need  the  money  to  extend  the  Hospital  Insurance  Trust  Fund,  we  have  a  promissory  note…  and  Treasury  has  to  pay  that  money  back.  But  they  have  to  get  it  from  somewhere.  That’s  the  missing  link.”54The  hard  truth  of  the  President’s  law  is  that  it  provided  no  mechanism  for  paying  the  money  back  –  it  simply  raided  Medicare  to  partially  pay  for  its  new  entitlement.Rationing  Medicare:  There  are  two  ways  to  control  health  care  spending:  Give  bureaucrats  the  power  to  decide  which  health  care  services  seniors  can  use,  as  the  Democrats’  health  care  law  will  do  starting  in  2014,  or  give  patients  more  power  to  reward  providers  who  deliver  high-­‐quality,  low-­‐cost  care  (and  deny  business  to  those  who  fail  to  provide  quality,  affordable  care),  as  Republicans  seek  to  do.  The  new  health  care  law  empowers  bureaucrats  at  the  expense  of  patients  and  providers,  setting  up  an  unelected  board  –  the  Independent  Payment  Advisory  Board,  or  IPAB  –  tasked  with  cutting  Medicare  through  formulaic  rationing.  One-­‐size-­‐fits-­‐all  Washington-­‐based  decisions  to  restrict  certain  treatments  punish  beneficiaries  by  hitting  all  providers  of  the  same  treatment  with  across-­‐the-­‐board  cuts,  with  no  regard  to  measures  of  quality  or  patient  satisfaction.  Letting  Social  Security  go  Bankrupt:  The  deny-­‐and-­‐delay  approach  to  Social  Security’s  looming  bankruptcy  was  illustrated  perfectly  last  year  by  Senate  Majority  Leader  Harry  Reid  of  Nevada.  First,  Reid  claimed  that  warnings  of  Social  Security’s  bankruptcy  represented  “an  outright  lie.”55  Then,  when  confronted  with  the  trustees’  report  showing  that  Social  Security’s  trust  funds  will  be  exhausted  by  2036,  Leader  Reid  replied,  “Two  decades  from  now,  I’m  willing  to  take  a  look  at  it.  But  I’m  not  willing  to  take  a  look  at  it  right  now.”56  Similarly,  the  top  Democrat  in  the  United  States  House  of  Representatives,  House  Minority  Leader  Nancy  Pelosi  of  California,  refuses  to  acknowledge  Social  Security’s  most  basic  math.  When  asked  in  2006  when  she  would  put  forward  a  plan  to  fix  Social  Security,  Pelosi  responded:  “Never.  Is  never  good  enough  for  you?”57  This  combination  of  policies  –  raid,  ration,  raise  taxes,  and  deny  the  problem  –  will  mean  painful  benefit  cuts  for  current  seniors  and  huge  tax  increases  on  younger  working  families,  robbing  them  of  the  opportunity  to  save  for  their  own  retirements.  And  it  will  mean  that  those  pledges  of  future  health  and  retirement  security  that  the  government  is  currently  making  to  younger  families  are  nothing  but  empty  promises.  Unless  government  acts,  Medicare  and  Social  Security  will  remain  threatened  for  current  seniors  and  will  not  be  there  for  younger  families.  53  President  Barack  Obama.  Weekly  Address,  Office  of  the  Press  Secretary,  The  White  House.  August  7,  2010.  http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-­‐press-­‐office/2010/08/07/weekly-­‐address-­‐president-­‐obama-­‐highlights-­‐benefits-­‐seniors-­‐under-­‐patient  54  Richard  Foster,  Testimony  before  U.S.  House  Budget  Committee,  The  Fiscal  Consequences  of  the  New  Healthcare  Law,  January  26,  2011.  http://budget.house.gov/healthcare/hearing1262011.htm55  Laura  Litvan,  “Deficit  Deal  May  Fail  if  U.S.  Social  Security  Cuts  Included,  Durbin  Says,”  Bloomberg,  March  28,  2011.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-­‐03-­‐28/deficit-­‐deal-­‐would-­‐fail-­‐if-­‐u-­‐s-­‐social-­‐security-­‐cuts-­‐included-­‐durbin-­‐says.html  56  Jennifer  Rubin,  “Harry  Reid  Says  No  to  Social  Security  Reform,”  Right  Turn  (blog),  Washington  Post,  March  17,  2011.  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-­‐turn/post/harry-­‐reid-­‐says-­‐no-­‐to-­‐social-­‐security-­‐reform/2011/03/04/ABtw9dk_blog.html  57  Perry  Bacon  Jr.,  “Don’t  Mess  With  Nancy  Pelosi,”  Time,  August  27,  2006.  http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1376213,00.htmlHouse  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       51
    • Strength  and  SolvencyThere  is  a  better  way  forward  –  a  way  that  accounts  for  both  the  benefits  and  the  failures  of  these  programs,  and  builds  upon  the  good  while  reforming  the  bad.  There  is  a  way  to  strengthen  Medicare  and  save  it  from  insolvency.  Instead  of  using  Washington-­‐based  price  controls  that  simply  pay  providers  less  while  jeopardizing  seniors’  care,  there  is  a  growing  bipartisan  consensus  for  real  reforms  designed  to  slow  the  growth  of  health  care  costs  economy-­‐wide  by  promoting  true  choice  and  competition.  Empowering  seniors,  not  bureaucrats,  is  the  best  way  to  save  and  strengthen  Medicare.Reform  aimed  to  empower  individuals  –  with  a  strengthened  safety  net  for  the  poor  and  the  sick  –  will  not  only  ensure  the  fiscal  sustainability  of  this  program,  the  federal  budget,  and  the  U.S.  economy.  It  will  also  guarantee  that  Medicare  can  fulfill  the  promise  of  health  security  for  America’s  seniors.There  is  also  a  way  forward  on  Social  Security  that  requires  all  parties  to  acknowledge  the  fiscal  realities  of  this  critical  program.  It  is  morally  unconscionable  for  elected  leaders  to  cling  to  an  unsustainable  status  quo  with  respect  to  America’s  health  and  retirement  security  programs.  Current  seniors  and  future  generations  deserve  better  than  empty  promises  and  a  diminished  country.  Current  retirees  deserve  the  benefits  around  which  they  organized  their  lives.  Future  generations  deserve  health  and  retirement  security  they  can  count  on. The  Solution:  Strengthening  Health  and  Retirement  SecuritySaving  and  Strengthening  Medicare• Save  Medicare  for  current  and  future  generations,  with  no  disruptions  for  those  in  and  near  retirement.  • For  younger  workers,  when  they  reach  eligibility,  Medicare  will  provide  a  Medicare  payment  and  a  list  of   guaranteed  coverage  options  –  including  a  traditional  fee-­‐for-­‐service  option  –  from  which  recipients  can   choose  a  plan  that  best  suits  their  needs.  These  future  Medicare  beneficiaries  will  be  able  to  choose  a  plan  the   same  way  members  of  Congress  do.  Medicare  will  provide  additional  assistance  for  lower-­‐income  beneficiaries   and  those  with  greater  health  care  needs.   To  strengthen  the  Medicare  program  to  serve  the  needs  of  both  current  and  future  retirees,  the  budget  would   reform  the  Medicare  program  and  put  it  on  sound  financial  footing  for  generations  to  come.  For  those  workers   currently  under  the  age  of  55,  beginning  in  2023,  those  seniors  would  be  given  a  choice  of  private  plans  competing   alongside  the  traditional  fee-­‐for-­‐service  option  on  a  newly  created  Medicare  Exchange.  Medicare  would  provide  a   premium-­‐support  payment  either  to  pay  for  or  offset  the  premium  of  the  plan  chosen  by  the  senior. The  Medicare  Exchange  would  provide  seniors  with  a  competitive  marketplace  where  they  could  choose  a  plan  the   same  way  members  of  Congress  do.  All  plans,  including  the  traditional  fee-­‐for-­‐service  option,  would  participate  in   an  annual  competitive  bidding  process  to  determine  the  dollar  amount  of  the  federal  contribution  seniors  would   use  to  purchase  the  coverage  that  best  serves  their  medical  needs.  Health  care  plans  would  compete  for  the  right  to   serve  Medicare  beneficiaries.   The  second-­‐least  expensive  approved  plan  or  fee-­‐for-­‐service  Medicare,  whichever  is  least  expensive,  would   establish  the  benchmark  that  determines  the  premium-­‐support  amount  for  the  plan  chosen  by  the  senior.  If  a   senior  chose  a  costlier  plan  than  the  benchmark  plan,  he  or  she  would  be  responsible  for  paying  the  difference   between  the  premium  subsidy  and  the  monthly  premium.  Conversely,  if  that  senior  chose  a  plan  that  cost  less  than   the  benchmark,  he  or  she  would  be  given  a  rebate  for  the  difference.  Payments  to  plans  would  be  risk-­‐adjusted  and   geographically  rated.  Private  health  plans  would  be  required  to  cover  at  least  the  actuarial  equivalent  of  the  benefit   package  provided  by  fee-­‐for-­‐service  Medicare.  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       52
    • Program  growth  would  be  determined  by  the  competitive  bidding  process  –  with  choice  and  competition  forcing   providers  to  reduce  costs  and  improve  quality  for  seniors.  The  competitive  market  for  Medicare  choices  would   foster  innovation  and  quality,  while  ensuring  that  the  program  is  financially  stable.  In  an  exchange  with  Chairman   Paul  Ryan  before  the  House  Budget  Committee,  Medicare  Chief  Actuary  Foster  cited  analysis  and  experience  on  the   merits  of  competitive  bidding  as  a  promising  means  to  improve  quality  and  control  costs  in  the  Medicare   program.58 As  opposed  to  pegging  the  growth  rate  to  a  predetermined  formula,  competitive  bidding  offers  the  ideal  means  of   harnessing  the  power  of  choice  and  competition  to  control  costs,  while  also  securing  guaranteed  affordability  for   patients.  As  a  backup,  the  per  capita  cost  of  this  reformed  program  for  seniors  reaching  eligibility  after  2023  could   not  exceed  nominal  GDP  growth  plus  0.5  percent.   The  President  has  repeatedly  proposed  empowering  IPAB  to  hold  Medicare  growth  to  the  same  growth  rate.  The   difference  is  that  this  budget  proposes  to  use  competition  to  control  costs,  while  IPAB  under  the  President’s   proposals  would  use  bureaucratic  benefit  restrictions  (i.e.,  “value-­‐based  benefit  design”)  to  contain  Medicare’s   growth  to  below  GDP  plus  o.5  percent.59 The  cap  on  the  growth  rate  is  intended  to:  (1)  act  as  a  fallback  to  assure  the  federal  government  budgetary  savings   and  protect  the  future  of  Medicare;  and  (2)  foster  the  proper  incentives  for  providers  and  plans  to  develop  more   efficient  methods  of  quality  care  delivery  and  attract  seniors  to  those  plans  that  succeed. This  budget  also  seeks  to  strengthen  protections  for  lower-­‐income  Americans.  If  costs  rose  faster  than  this   established  limit,  those  low-­‐income  individuals  who  qualify  for  both  Medicare  and  Medicaid  (also  known  as  “dual-­‐ eligibles”)  would  continue  to  have  Medicaid  pay  for  their  out-­‐of-­‐pocket  expenses.  Other  lower-­‐income  seniors   (those  who  do  not  qualify  for  Medicaid  but  are  still  under  a  certain  income  threshold)  would  receive  fully-­‐funded   accounts  to  help  offset  any  out-­‐of-­‐pocket  costs. Guarantee  Affordable  Choices  for  All  Seniors Seniors  would  be  guaranteed  a  plan  that  is  at  least  the  value  of  the  traditional  fee-­‐for-­‐service  Medicare  option.   Health  plans  that  participate  alongside  a  traditional  Medicare  option  in  the  Medicare  Exchange  would  be  required   to  offer  insurance  to  all  seniors  –  regardless  of  age  and  health  status  –  thereby  preventing  insurers  from  cherry-­‐ picking  only  the  healthiest  seniors  for  coverage  under  their  plans.  These  protections  ensure  that  Medicare’s  sickest   and  highest-­‐cost  beneficiaries  have  access  to  affordable  and  quality  coverage  choices.  The  proposal  requires  all   plans  on  the  Exchange  to  include  guaranteed  issue  (i.e.,  they  cannot  deny  coverage  based  on  pre-­‐existing   conditions)  and  community  rating  (i.e.,  they  cannot  impose  prohibitively  disparate  costs  on  seniors)  to  ensure  that   seniors  are  able  to  choose  an  affordable  health  plan  that  works  best  for  them  –  without  fear  of  denial  or   discrimination.   Stronger  Protections  for  Those  with  Greater  Needs The  federal  contribution  to  seniors’  health  plans  would  be  risk-­‐adjusted  so  that  the  sickest  seniors  are  protected   from  high  premiums  as  well  as  adverse  selection  from  insurers.  Building  on  the  risk-­‐adjustment  tools  currently  used   by  the  Centers  for  Medicare  and  Medicaid  Services  (CMS),  proper  risk  adjustment  would  ensure  that  seniors  with   the  highest  health  costs  would  still  be  able  to  find  an  affordable  plan.  Federal  contributions  would  be  increased  to   account  for  a  senior’s  health  status  and  age.  58  Richard  Foster,  remarks  before  the  House  Budget  Committee,  Strengthening  Health  and  Retirement  Security,  February  28,  2012.http://budget.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=282298  59  “Analysis  for  the  President’s  Budget  For  FY2013,”  House  Budget  Committee,  February  24,  2012.  http://budget.house.gov/UploadedFiles/POTUS_FY13budget.pdf  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       53
    • CMS  would  also  conduct  an  annual  risk  review  audit  of  all  insurance  plans  participating  in  the  Medicare  Exchange.   Insurance  plans  covering  a  higher-­‐than-­‐average  number  of  low-­‐risk  seniors  would  pay  a  fee.  Conversely,  insurance   plans  covering  a  higher-­‐than-­‐average  number  of  high-­‐risk  seniors  would  receive  an  incentive  payment.  The  fees  and   incentive  payments  would  flow  internally  through  the  same  fund,  so  that  payments  to  plans  that  cover  high-­‐cost   patients  would  be  funded  wholly  by  the  fees  from  plans  that  cover  low-­‐cost  patients.   More  Support  for  Low-­‐Income  Seniors  and  a  Reduced  Subsidy  for  High-­‐Income  Seniors Low-­‐income  seniors  shopping  for  coverage  would  be  offered  the  same  range  of  high-­‐quality  options  offered  to  all   other  seniors.  They  would  be  guaranteed  the  ability  to  choose  a  traditional  fee-­‐for-­‐service  Medicare  plan,  or  they   could  choose  a  private  plan  on  the  Medicare  Exchange  with  a  fully-­‐funded  account  from  which  to  pay  premiums,   co-­‐pays  and  other  out-­‐of-­‐pocket  costs.   The  high-­‐income  means-­‐testing  thresholds  for  the  Parts  B  and  D  programs  would  apply  to  the  new  Medicare   program,  such  that  certain  high-­‐income  seniors  would  pay  an  increased  share  of  their  premiums.     Using  Choice  and  Competition  to  Save  and  Strengthen  Medicare For  too  long  in  the  Medicare  system,  the  federal  government,  not  the  patient,  has  been  the  customer  –  and  the   government  has  been  a  clumsy,  ineffective  steward  of  value.  Controlling  costs  in  an  open-­‐ended  system  has  proved   impossible  to  do  without  limiting  access  or  sacrificing  quality.  In  a  vain  attempt  to  get  control  of  the  waste  in  the   system,  Washington  has  made  across-­‐the-­‐board  payment  reductions  to  providers  without  regard  to  quality  or   patient  satisfaction.  It  hasn’t  worked.  Costs  have  continued  to  grow,  seniors  continue  to  lose  access  to  quality  care,   and  the  program  remains  on  a  path  to  bankruptcy.  Absent  reform,  Medicare  will  be  unable  to  meet  the  needs  of   current  seniors  or  future  generations. In  health  care,  as  in  any  other  economic  arrangement,  control  of  money  is  power.  When  it  comes  to  controlling   health  care  costs  and  saving  the  nation  from  bankruptcy,  the  question  is:  Who  gets  the  power?  One  centralized   federal  government,  or  50  million  empowered  seniors  holding  providers  accountable  in  a  true  marketplace?  Patient   power  will  always  serve  the  needs  of  the  people  far  better  than  bureaucrats  managing  the  decline  of  a  government-­‐ run  system  on  the  verge  of  bankruptcy. These  reforms  will  guarantee  that  Medicare  can  fulfill  the  promise  of  seniors’  health  security  for  generations  to   come.  Premium  support,  competitive  bidding,  and  more  help  for  those  with  lower  incomes  and  greater  health   needs  will  ensure  guaranteed  affordability  for  future  seniors.  • Stop  the  raid  on  the  Medicare  trust  fund  that  was  going  to  be  used  to  pay  for  the  new  health  care  law.  Any   current-­‐law  Medicare  savings  must  go  to  saving  Medicare,  not  the  creation  of  new  open-­‐ended  health  care   entitlements. This  budget  ends  the  raid  on  the  Medicare  trust  fund  that  began  with  passage  of  the  new  health  care  law  last  year.   It  ensures  that  any  potential  savings  in  current  law  would  go  to  shore  up  Medicare,  not  to  pay  for  new  entitlements.   In  addition  to  repealing  the  health  care  law’s  new  rationing  board  and  its  unfunded  long-­‐term  care  entitlement,  this   budget  stabilizes  plan  choices  for  current  seniors.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       54
    • Table  1   The  Simple  Truth  about  Medicare’s  Future Bureaucrat  Control Patient  ControlProposal The  President’s  partisan  health  care  law  creates  an   Bipartisan  solutions  to  preserve  the  Medicare   unaccountable  board  of  15  unelected  bureaucrats  –   guarantee,  offering  guaranteed  coverage  options  to   the  so-­‐called  “Independent  Payment  Advisory   future  seniors,  regardless  of  pre-­‐existing  conditions   Board”  (IPAB)  –  empowered  to  cut  Medicare  in   or  health  history,  financed  by  a  premium-­‐support   ways  that  will  result  in  denied  care  and  restricted   payment  adjusted  to  provide  additional  financial   access  for  seniors.    The  bureaucrat-­‐imposed  cuts   assistance  to  low-­‐income  and  less-­‐healthy  seniors   threaten  critical  care  for  current  seniors  and  fail  to   and  less  to  the  wealthy.  The  Medicare  health  plans,   strengthen  Medicare  for  future  generations. including  a  traditional  Medicare  option,  would   compete  against  each  other  to  offer  higher  quality   care  at  lower  costs.Ration  care? Yes.  IPAB’s  unelected  and  unaccountable   No.  Strips  unaccountable  Washington  bureaucrats  of   bureaucrats  have  the  power  to  determine  what   their  rationing  power;  puts  patients  in  control  of   “rationing  health  care”  means,  allowing  them  to   their  health  care  decisions  instead  of  government,   cut  Medicare  in  ways  that  harm  seniors’  access  to   and  forces  providers  to  compete  for  the  right  to   providers  and  lead  to  the  denial  of  critical  care. serve  seniors.  All  Medicare  health  plans  are  required   to  meet  high  standards  of  care.Control  costs? No.  Cutting  reimbursements  only  reduces  access,   Yes.  Harnessing  the  power  of  choice  and   while  the  true  costs  of  care  continue  to  grow. competition  helps  tackle  the  root  drivers  of  health   inflation  that  are  bankrupting  the  current  system.Who  is  in  control? An  unaccountable  board  of  15  unelected   Patients  and  their  doctors. bureaucrats.Protect  benefits? No.  The  President’s  latest  budget  proposes  to  give   Yes.  Making  no  changes  for  current  seniors,  ensuring   IPAB  “additional  tools”  that  would  give  it  the   that  traditional  Medicare  remains  an  option,  and   power  to  change  benefits  in  ways  that  restrict   strengthening  the  program  for  future  seniors   access  for  seniors.  Seniors  are  prohibited  from   protects  the  Medicare  guarantee.   legal  appeals  to  IPAB’s  decisions.Current  seniors Exposed  to  the  harmful  consequences  of  IPAB. No  changes.Solvent  future? No.  Medicare’s  trust  funds  are  exhausted,  and  the   Yes.  Medicare  will  be  able  to  deliver  on  its  critical   program  collapses  into  bankruptcy. mission  to  seniors  today  and  future  generations.• Repeal  the  rationing  board  that  would  limit  seniors’  care. This  budget  repeals  IPAB,  the  unaccountable  panel  of  15  unelected  bureaucrats  empowered  by  the  President’s   health  care  law  to  cut  Medicare  in  ways  that  would  lead  to  denied  care  for  seniors.  Choice  and  competition  –  not   bureaucratic  rationing  –  is  the  best  way  to  contain  costs  in  government  health  care  programs  while  at  the  same   time  improving  the  quality  of  care.  • Ensure  that  the  cost  of  frivolous  litigation  is  not  passed  on  to  consumers  in  the  form  of  higher  health  care   premiums  by  capping  non-­‐economic  damages  in  medical  liability  lawsuits.   This  budget  also  achieves  savings  by  advancing  common-­‐sense  curbs  on  abusive  and  frivolous  lawsuits.  Medical   lawsuits  and  excessive  verdicts  increase  health  care  costs  and  result  in  reduced  access  to  care.  When  mistakes   happen,  patients  have  a  right  to  fair  representation  and  fair  compensation.  But  the  current  tort  litigation  system   too  often  serves  the  interests  of  lawyers  while  driving  up  costs.  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       55
    • Advancing  Social  Security  Reforms• Establish  a  requirement  that  in  the  event  that  the  Social  Security  program  is  not  sustainable,  the  President,  in   conjunction  with  the  Board  of  Trustees,  must  submit  a  plan  for  restoring  balance  to  the  fund.  The  budget  then   requires  congressional  leaders  in  both  the  U.S.  House  of  Representatives  and  U.S.  Senate  to  put  forward  their   best  ideas  as  well.  • Move  the  conversation  to  solutions  that  save  Social  Security,  thus  providing  the  space  to  forge  a  bipartisan   path  forward  and  ensure  that  Social  Security  remains  a  key  part  of  retirement  security  for  the  future.   In  a  shared  call  for  leadership,  this  budget  calls  for  action  on  Social  Security  by  requiring  both  the  President  and  the   Congress  to  put  forward  specific  ideas  and  legislation  to  ensure  the  sustainable  solvency  of  this  critical  program.   Both  parties  must  work  together  to  chart  a  path  forward  on  common-­‐sense  reforms,  and  this  budget  provides  the   nation’s  leaders  with  the  tools  to  get  there.   Previous  proposals  put  forward  by  leading  reformers  offer  guidance  on  where  bipartisan  consensus  can  be  reached   on  strengthening  Social  Security.  For  example,  the  President’s  Fiscal  Commission  advanced  solutions  to  ensure  the   solvency  of  Social  Security.   The  Commission  suggested  a  more  progressive  benefit  structure,  with  benefits  for  higher-­‐income  workers  growing   more  slowly  than  those  of  workers  with  lower  incomes  who  are  more  vulnerable  to  economic  shocks  in  retirement.   It  also  recommended  reforms  that  take  account  of  increases  in  longevity,  to  arrest  the  demographic  problems  that   are  undermining  Social  Security’s  finances.60   In  addition,  there  is  bipartisan  consensus  that  Social  Security  reform  should  provide  more  help  to  those  who  fall   below  the  poverty  line  after  retirement  as  part  of  a  reform  that  makes  the  program  solvent.  As  part  of  a  plan  to   strengthen  the  safety  of  the  nation’s  most  vulnerable  citizens,  lower-­‐income  seniors  should  receive  more  targeted   assistance  than  those  who  have  had  ample  opportunity  to  save  for  retirement.   While  certain  details  of  the  Commission’s  Social  Security  proposals  are  of  debatable  merit,  the  Commission   undoubtedly  made  positive  steps  forward  on  bipartisan  solutions  to  strengthen  Social  Security.  This  budget  builds   upon  the  Commission’s  work,  forcing  action  to  solve  this  pressing  problem  by  requiring  the  President  and  Congress   to  work  together  to  advance  solutions.   People  are  living  longer.  The  baby  boomers  have  begun  to  retire.  Health  care  costs  are  skyrocketing.  These  are   facts,  and  they  require  a  better  approach  to  renew  the  social  contract.   This  budget  fulfills  the  mission  of  health  and  retirement  security  for  all  Americans  by  saving  and  strengthening   existing  programs  through  common-­‐sense  reforms.  The  solutions  are  clear;  what  remains  in  question  is  whether   elected  leaders  have  the  resolve  to  save  these  programs.60  “The  Moment  of  Truth,”  The  National  Commission  on  Fiscal  Responsibility  and  Reform,”  December,  2010.  http://www.fiscalcommission.gov/sites/fiscalcommission.gov/files/documents/TheMomentofTruth12_1_2010.pdf  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       56
    • PRO-­‐GROWTH  TAX  REFORM PRO-GROWTH TAX REFORM KEY  POINTS The  tax  code  has  become  a  broken  maze  of  complexity  and  political  favoritism,   overgrown  with  special-­‐interest  loopholes  and  high  marginal  rates  that  stifle   economic  growth  and  job  creation. This  budget  reforms  the  broken  tax  code  to  spur  job  creation  and  economic   opportunity  by  lowering  rates,  closing  loopholes,  and  putting  hardworking   taxpayers  ahead  of  special  interests.  The  pro-­‐growth  reforms  ensure  the  tax  code   is  fair,  simple,  and  competitive. This  budget  consolidates  the  current  six  individual  income  tax  brackets  into  just   two  low  brackets  of  10  and  25  percent  and  repeals  the  Alternative  Minimum  Tax. This  budget  reduces  the  corporate  rate  to  25  percent  and  shifts  from  a   “worldwide”  system  of  taxation  to  a  “territorial”  tax  system  that  puts  American   companies  and  their  workers  on  a  level  playing  field  with  foreign  competitors. This  budget  rejects  the  President’s  call  to  raise  taxes.  Instead,  it  broadens  the  tax   base  to  maintain  revenue  growth  at  a  level  consistent  with  current  tax  policy  and   at  a  share  of  the  economy  consistent  with  historical  norms  of  18  to  19  percent  in   the  following  decades.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       57
    • House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       58
    • PRO-­‐GROWTH  TAX  REFORM The  Challenge:  A  Burdensome  and  Uncompetitive  Tax  CodeA  world-­‐class  tax  system  should  be  simple,  fair  and  pro-­‐growth.  The  U.S.  tax  code  fails  on  all  three  counts.  The  tax  code  is  notoriously  complex:  Individuals,  families  and  employers  spend  over  six  billion  hours  and  over  $160  billion  a  year  trying  to  negotiate  a  labyrinth  of  deductions.61The  tax  code  is  patently  unfair:  Many  of  the  deductions  and  preferences  in  the  system  –  which  serve  to  narrow  the  tax  base  –  were  lobbied  for  and  are  mainly  used  by  a  relatively  small  group  of  mostly  higher-­‐income  individuals.  And  the  tax  code  creates  a  drag  on  growth,  because  it  is  highly  inefficient,  uncompetitive  and  unpredictable.  The  Complex  Tax  CodeWhen  the  modern  tax  code  was  established  in  1913,  it  contained  roughly  400  pages  of  laws  and  regulations.  Since  then,  the  federal  tax  code  has  grown  dramatically  and  now  stands  at  more  than  70,000  pages.  In  the  past  ten  years,  there  have  been  more  than  4,400  changes  to  the  code,  or  more  than  one  per  day.62  Many  of  the  major  changes  made  to  the  tax  code  over  the  years  involved  carving  out  special  preferences,  exclusions,  or  deductions  for  various  activities  or  groups.  These  special  tax  breaks  and  preferences  now  add  up  to  more  than  $1  trillion  per  year.  Both  parties,  and  both  the  Congress  and  past  presidents,  are  culpable  in  expanding  the  complexity  of  the  code.  These  layers  of  carve-­‐outs  and  changes  have  made  it  enormously  difficult  to  make  sense  of  the  tax  code.  The  Treasury  Department’s  guide  book  on  tax  regulations,  issued  to  help  users  interpret  the  meaning  of  the  code,  comprises  six  full  volumes  and  sums  to  nearly  12,000  pages.  The  code  is  so  complex  that  60  percent  of  Americans  use  paid  tax  preparers  to  complete  their  forms  correctly.  Another  20  percent  rely  on  tax  preparation  software,  such  as  Turbo  Tax,  to  complete  their  forms.  Even  the  IRS  Commissioner  admitted  in  a  recent  interview  that  he  relies  on  a  tax  professional  to  complete  his  returns,  in  part  because  of  the  code’s  complexity.63The  average  tax  preparation  fee  for  a  standard  itemized  1040  Form  and  an  accompanying  state  tax  return  is  just  over  $230,  while  small  businesses  pay  between  $500  and  $700  for  help  with  their  forms,  according  to  the  National  Society  of  Accountants.64  The  total  cost  of  complying  with  the  individual  and  corporate  income  tax  (gathering  the  requisite  information,  preparing  the  forms,  etc.)  amounts  to  over  $160  billion  per  year,  or  14  percent  of  all  income  tax  receipts  collected.  To  provide  context,  the  money  value  of  this  drain  on  the  nation’s  productivity  is  roughly  three  times  larger  than  the  amount  the  country  spends  researching  and  developing  life-­‐saving  new  medicine  –  pharmaceutical  R&D  amounts  to  around  $50  to  60  billion  per  year.6561  “Roundtable  Discussion  On  Ideas  For  Reforming  The  U.S.  Internal  Revenue  Code,”  Joint  Committee  on  Taxation,  May  11,  2011.  http://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=startdown&id=378862  2011  Annual  Report  to  Congress,  U.S.  Internal  Revenue  Service,  Office  of  the  National  Taxpayer  Advocate,  December  31,  2011.  http://www.irs.gov/advocate/article/0,,id=252216,00.html  63  “Newsmakers  with  Douglas  Shulman”,  C-­‐SPAN,  January  8,  2010.  http://www.c-­‐spanvideo.org/program/291155-­‐1      64  NSA  2011-­‐2012  Income  and  Fees  Survey  of  Accountants  in  Public  Practice,  National  Society  of  Accountants,  August  3,  2011.  65  Pharmaceutical  Industry  Profile  2011,  Pharmaceutical  Manufacturers  Association,  April  2011.  http://www.phrma.org/sites/default/files/159/phrma_profile_2011_final.pdf    House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       59
    • In  the  realm  of  tax  policy,  Congress  sometimes  focuses  its  efforts  on  improving  tax  compliance  and  trying  to  narrow  the  “tax  gap”  (i.e.,  the  difference  between  what  Americans  owe  in  taxes  and  what  the  government  actually  collects).  But  the  tax  gap  is  merely  a  symptom  of  a  complex  and  broken  tax  code.  The  best  way  to  improve  tax  compliance  and  ease  administrative  burdens  on  the  system  isn’t  to  enhance  the  enforcement  power  of  the  IRS  –  it  is  to  dramatically  simplify  the  tax  code.The  Unfair  Tax  CodeAll  of  the  deductions,  loopholes  and  carve-­‐outs  in  the  tax  code  don’t  just  add  to  the  code’s  complexity  –  they  add  to  its  unfairness  as  well.  The  sum  of  all  the  special  credits,  deductions  and  loopholes  in  the  tax  code  (so-­‐called  “tax  preferences”)  amounts  to  over  $1  trillion  per  year.  To  put  that  figure  in  perspective,  that  is  roughly  the  same  amount  that  the  U.S.  government  collects  in  individual  income  taxes  each  year.  In  other  words,  these  tax  preferences  end  up  narrowing  the  tax  base  by  roughly  50  percent.   This  is  important  for  two  reasons.  First,   because  America  has  a  highly   progressive  income  tax,  these  tax   preferences  are  disproportionately   used  by  upper-­‐income  individuals  (see   Figure  5).  For  instance,  the  top  1   percent  of  taxpayers  reap  about  3   times  as  much  benefit  from  special  tax   credits  and  deductions  (excluding   refundable  credits)  than  middle-­‐ income  earners  and  13  times  as  much   benefit  than  the  lowest  income   quintile.  And  second,  a  narrow  tax  base   requires  much  higher  tax  rates  to  raise   a  given  amount  of  revenue.   A  code  with  high  rates  and  lots  of   loopholes  benefits  those  who  can   afford  the  best  lawyers  and  lobbyists  in   Washington.  Instead  of  advocating  for   lower  rates  for  all,  those  with  political   muscle  usually  take  the  path  of  least   resistance  by  pushing  for  special  deductions  and  carve-­‐outs.  This  not  only  lowers  their  effective  tax  rates,  but  also  enables  them  to  use  the  complexities  of  the  tax  code  to  stack  the  deck  against  their  competitors.  There’s  nothing  fair  about  that.  The  Anti-­‐Growth  Tax  CodeIn  addition  to  being  complex  and  unfair,  the  code  creates  a  drag  on  economic  growth  by  being  inefficient,  uncompetitive  and  unpredictable.Inefficient:  The  tendency  of  both  parties  to  fill  the  tax  code  with  loopholes  also  requires  higher  rates  to  compensate  for  lost  revenue,  resulting  in  a  less  efficient  and  less  growth  oriented  tax  system.  Economic  theory  suggests,  and  most  empirical  studies  prove,  that  marginal  tax-­‐rate  hikes  –  tax  increases  that  reduce  incentives  to  work,  save  and  invest  for  additional  income  above  a  certain  cutoff  –  reduce  economic  output,  while  marginal  rate  reductions  increase  output,  mainly  by  letting  people  keep  more  of  each  dollar  they  earn  and  thereby  strengthening  incentives  to  work,  produce,  and  invest  in  the  future.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       60
    • Lower  economic  output  mutes  the  revenue  effect  of  top-­‐rate  tax  increases.  Top  rates  have  risen  and  fallen  dramatically  in  the  past,  with  little  overall  effect  on  tax  revenue  as  a  share  of  the  economy.  The  top  individual  rate  has  ranged  from  90  percent  to  28  percent  over  the  years,  but  income  tax  revenue  has  remained  fairly  steady  despite  these  sharp  rate  swings.  The  biggest  driver  of  revenue  to  the  federal  government  isn’t  higher  rates  –  it’s  economic  growth.  Growth  is  the  key  to  fiscal  sustainability  –  and  low  rates  are  the  key  to  growth.Uncompetitive:  The  U.S.  corporate  income  tax  (incorporating  federal,  state  and  local  taxes)  sums  to  just  over  39  percent,  the  second-­‐highest  rate  in  the  industrialized  world.  Once  Japan  lowers  its  corporate  rate,  which  it  is  expected  to  do  on  April  1,  2012,  the  United  States  will  have  the  highest  rate.66  This  tax  discourages  investment  and  job  creation,  distorts  business  activity,  and  puts  American  businesses  at  a  competitive  disadvantage  against  foreign  competitors.  Cognizant  of  the  stiff  competition  in  the  21st  century  global  economy,  many  industrialized  nations  continue  to  reduce  their  corporate  income  tax  rate.  On  January  1,  2012,  Canada,  America’s  largest  trading  partner,  reduced  its  corporate  income  tax  rate  to  15  percent.   Yet  the  tax  itself  raises  relatively  little   revenue  –  only  10  percent  of  total   federal  tax  revenue  comes  from  taxing   corporate  income.  A  2005  CBO  report   reinforced  this  conclusion,  stating  that   “distortions  that  the  corporate  income   tax  induces  are  large  compared  with   the  revenues  that  the  tax  generates.”67   Any  tax  that  creates  such  a  significant   amount  of  economic  distortion  relative   to  the  revenue  it  raises  is  especially   ripe  for  reform.   Like  the  individual  income  tax,  the   corporate  tax  contains  a  host  of  special   carve-­‐outs  and  deductions  which  serve   to  narrow  the  tax  base  by  about  25   percent.  This  in  turn  necessitates  the   high  rate  that  is  undermining  U.S.   competitiveness.  66  “Corporate  Tax  Reform  Countdown,”  House  Ways  and  Means  Committee,  http://waysandmeans.house.gov/corporatetaxreform/67  “Corporate  Income  Tax  Rates:  International  Comparisons,”  Congressional  Budget  Office,  November  2005.  http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/69xx/doc6902/11-­‐28-­‐CorporateTax.pdf  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       61
    • Elevated  corporate  tax  rates  hinder  American  competitiveness  by  making  the  United  States  a  less  desirable  destination  for  investment  and  jobs.  Business  location  and  investment  decisions  are  becoming  ever  more  sensitive  to  country  tax  rates  as  global  integration  increases.  Foreign  investment  is  important  to  an  economy  because  it  is  a  key  source  of  innovation  and  jobs.  In  response,  many  countries  have  been  lowering  business  taxes.  The  United  States  risks  falling  behind  as  it  maintains  its  high  tax  rate  while  other  countries  lower  theirs.  By  deterring  potential  investment,  the  U.S.  corporate  tax  restrains  economic  growth  and  job  creation.  The  U.S.  tax  rate  differential  with  other  countries  also  fosters  a  variety  of  complicated  multinational  corporate  behaviors  intended  to  avoid  the  tax  –  such  as  profit  shifting,  corporate  inversions,  and  transfer  pricing  –  which  have  the  effect  of  moving  the  tax  base  offshore,  costing  Americans  jobs  and  decreasing  corporate  revenue.The  structure  of  U.S.  international  taxation  is  also  out  of  sync  with  the  standard  used  by  the  majority  of  other  countries,  and  it  puts  U.S.  businesses  operating  abroad  at  a  competitive  disadvantage.  Most  countries  operate  under  a  so-­‐called  “territorial”  system  of  international  taxation,  whereby  businesses  earning  income  abroad  are  subject  only  to  the  tax  system  of  the  country  where  the  income  is  earned.  The  U.S.  has  an  antiquated  “worldwide”  system  of  international  taxation,  whereby  U.S.  multinationals  pay  foreign  taxes  on  income  earned  abroad,  and  then  U.S.  taxes  when  the  profits  are  repatriated.  They  are  essentially  taxed  twice.  This  puts  them  at  an  obvious  competitive  disadvantage.  Shifting  to  a  territorial  corporate  tax  system  would  boost  the  competitiveness  of  U.S.  multinationals  and  reduce  complex  tax-­‐evasion  strategies,  such  as  profit  shifting  and  transfer  pricing,  that  undermine  job  creation  in  the  United  States.  Empirical  studies  suggest  that  a  reduction  in  the  U.S.  corporate  tax  rate  could  lead  to  significant  economic  benefits.  One  such  study  found  that  a  10  percentage-­‐point  reduction  in  the  U.S.  corporate  tax  rate  could  boost  GDP  growth  per  capita  by  1.1  to  1.8  percentage  points  a  year.68  Reforming  the  corporate  tax  system  would  have  benefits  for  average  U.S.  workers  and  consumers,  because  they  are  the  individuals  who  currently  bear  the  costs  of  this  flawed  tax  structure.  Workers  in  particular  could  benefit  from  a  reduction  in  the  corporate  tax  rate.  Another  study  from  the  CBO  concluded  that  “domestic  labor  bears  slightly  more  than  70  percent  of  the  burden”  of  the  corporate  income  tax. 69  Corporations  are  not  taxpayers  –  they  are  tax  collectors,  charged  with  collecting  an  unfair  and  inefficient  tax  from  their  shareholders,  their  customers  and  their  workers.  Investors  pay  the  cost  in  diminished  returns,  consumers  pay  the  cost  in  higher  prices,  and  workers  pay  the  cost  in  lower  wages  –  or,  worse,  in  the  form  of  lost  jobs.Unpredictable:  The  expiration  dates  built  into  current  tax  law  have  left  Americans  exposed  to  a  $4.5  trillion  tax  increase  on  January  1,  2013.  This  “tax  cliff”  includes  the  expiration  of  all  current  income  tax  rates,  current  tax  rates  on  capital  gains  and  dividends,  the  estate  tax,  the  payroll  tax  holiday,  the  Alternative  Minimum  Tax,  and  numerous  other  tax  provisions.If  all  these  provisions  were  to  expire  simultaneously,  the  impact  on  paychecks  would  be  immediate,  further  eroding  the  take-­‐home  pay  for  families  who  are  already  struggling  to  make  ends  meet.  The  impact  on  markets  would  be  disruptive:  The  prospect  of  a  sudden  snap-­‐back  in  dividends  and  capital  gains  tax  rates  could  precipitate  a  flight  of  capital  away  from  job-­‐creating  businesses.  And  the  impact  on  growth  would  be  negative:  If  policymakers  can’t  achieve  this  basic  task  of  governance  –  ensuring  low,  predictable  tax  rates  –  then  it  is  doubtful  that  job  creators  will  have  the  certainty  they  need  to  expand,  hire  and  grow  the  economy.  Both  parties  are  to  blame  for  this  pile-­‐up  of  expiring  tax  laws,  for  two  reasons.  First,  Republicans  and  Democrats  alike  have  in  the  past  favored  temporary  tax  changes  over  permanent  ones,  because  temporary  tax  changes  can  be  “scored”  as  having  a  smaller  budgetary  impact,  even  if  it  is  well  understood  that  these  provisions  are  intended  to  be  permanent.  68  “Tax  Structure  and  Economic  Growth,”  Journal  of  Public  Economics,  June  200569  William  Randolph,  “International  Burdens  of  the  Corporate  Income  Tax.”  Working  Paper  Series,  Congressional  Budget  Office,  August  2006.  http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/75xx/doc7503/2006-­‐09.pdf  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       62
    • Second,  under  the  leadership  of  both  parties,  Congress  has  enacted  temporary  tax  relief  under  the  theory  that  short-­‐term  boosts  in  worker  take-­‐home  pay  would  spur  demand  in  a  weak  economy.  Neither  of  these  reasons  offers  a  good  excuse  for  the  uncertainty  that  this  practice  has  forced  American  families  and  businesses  to  live  with.  The  first  substitutes  budgetary  gimmicks  for  responsible  budgeting.  And  while  there  is  nothing  objectionable  about  letting  people  keep  more  of  the  money  they  earn,  empirical  studies  have  shown  that  temporary  tax  rebates  –  as  opposed  to  permanent  rate  reductions  –  deliver  very  little  “bang  for  the  buck”  in  terms  of  economic  stimulus.70  Aware  that  their  tax  windfalls  are  temporary,  most  people  do  not  make  major  changes  in  their  spending  habits.  More  importantly,  temporary  rebates  do  not  strengthen  incentives  for  increased  work  and  productivity,  which  according  to  standard  economic  theory  should  be  the  aim  of  a  pro-­‐growth  tax  policy.  Nor  do  temporary  rebates  help  businesses  create  jobs  for  American  workers.  Michael  Wall  –  vice  president  of  tax  for  Case  New  Holland,  a  tractor  manufacturer  which  employs  over  10,000  Americans  –  testified  before  the  House  Budget  Committee  last  fall:   “From  our  perspective  as  a  business,  were  looking  for  stable,  permanent,  pro-­‐growth  tax  reform.  Temporary   incentives  are  temporary,  as  the  name  implies.  When  we  look  to  make  capital  investments,  we  look  at  that  return   on  investment  [based  on]  a  five-­‐year  cash-­‐flow  analysis.  Right  now,  there’s  so  much  uncertainty  with  the  tax  code,   there’s  not  a  permanent  structure  to  really  help  us  make  intelligent  decisions  on  where  we  expand  our  operations.   So  to  answer  your  question,  temporary  is  not  helpful  for  us.”71A  Spending-­‐Driven  ChallengeFinally,  it  is  worth  noting  that  the  U.S.  government  is  not  running  sustained  deficits  because  Americans  are  taxed  too  little,  but  rather  because  government  spends  too  much.  Over  the  past  40  years,  government  revenue  has  averaged  between  18  percent  and  19  percent  of  GDP.  This  level  has  generally  been  compatible  with  prosperity,  even  though  there  is  broad  agreement  that  the  structure  of  the  tax  code   should  be  simplified  and  made  more   conducive  to  economic  growth,  high   wages  and  entrepreneurship.   Figure  8  shows  that  Washington  has  a   spending  problem,  not  a  revenue   problem.  The  President’s  budget  would   drive  both  spending  and  revenues  to   historic  highs  as  a  share  of  the  total   U.S.  economy.  The  trend  is  clear:   Chasing  ever-­‐higher  spending  with   ever-­‐higher  tax  rates  would  leave  the   U.S.  economy  at  a  severe  disadvantage   compared  to  the  rest  of  the  world,  to   say  nothing  of  the  pain  felt  by   American  families  deprived  of  the   chance  to  save  for  a  better  future.  70  Matthew  Shapiro  and  Joel  Slemrod,  “Did  the  2008  Tax  Rebates  Stimulate  Spending?”  National  Bureau  of  Economic  Research  Working  Paper  14753,  February  2009.  http://www.nber.org/papers/w14753  71  Michael  Wall,  remarks  before  the  House  Budget  Committee,  The  Need  for  Pro-­‐Growth  Tax  Reform,  September  14,  2011.  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       63
    • Nor  can  the  government  solve  this  problem  just  by  raising  the  top  individual  tax  rates:  Even  if  it  were  wise  to  raise  taxes  on  the  most  successful  small  businesses  in  America  –  most  of  which  are  owned  by  individuals  and  file  at  individual  rates  –  the  government  cannot  even  come  close  to  closing  the  fiscal  gap  that  way.  The  non-­‐partisan  CBO  has  concluded  that  the  tax  rates  needed  to  sustain  the  nation’s  current  fiscal  trajectory  into  the  future  would  end  up  sinking  the  economy.72  That  is  one  reason  that  the  President’s  Fiscal  Commission  proposed,  as  part  of  an  overall  effort  to  fix  the  nation’s  unsustainable  deficits,  a  fundamental  tax  reform  plan  that  actually  lowered  income  tax  rates  to  promote  growth,  while  eliminating  tax  loopholes  to  broaden  the  tax  base.73   The  Choice:  Greater  Complexity  and  Higher  Rates  vs.  Pro-­‐Growth  ReformTo  promote  job  creation  and  avoid  major  harm  to  the  U.S.  economy,  policymakers  need  to  replace  the  current  mix  of  temporary  rates  and  provisions  with  permanent,  pro-­‐growth  tax  reform.  Unfortunately,  the  President  and  his  party’s  leaders  have  called  for  the  opposite  approach  –  one  that  would  hurt  economic  growth  and  endanger  the  weak  recovery.  Greater  Complexity  and  Higher  RatesThe  President  has  put  forward  a  budget  that  calls  for  $1.9  trillion  in  higher  taxes  on  American  businesses   TABLE  2and  families.  That’s  bad  enough.  But  what’s  worse  is   INCOMEthat  this  new  revenue  comes,  not  from  fundamental  tax  reform  that  lowers  the  rates  and  broadens  the   Top  Statutory  Rate,  2011 35.0%base,  but  from  higher  rates  and  added  complexity  in  the  tax  code.   Expiration  of  2001/03  Lower  Rates,  2013 36.6% PEP/PEASE  Provisions  Re-­‐Instated,  2013 41.6%The  President’s  budget would  increase  the  top  two  income  tax  brackets  from  33  percent  to  36  percent  and   Net  2.3  Medicare  Tax  on  Wages/Salary 43.9%from  35  percent  to  39.6  percent,  respectively,  starting  next  year.  It  would  also  restore  the  phase-­‐out  of   0.9%  Non-­‐Deductable  Medicare  Tax,  2013 44.8%personal  exemptions  and  itemized  deductions  (the  so-­‐ DIVIDENDScalled  PEP  and  Pease  provisions)  for  this  income  group  and  limit  the  value  of  deductions  against  income.   Top  Statutory  Rate,  2011 15.0%When  combined  with  the  3.8  percent  Medicare  surtax   Tax  Dividends  at  Ordinary  Income  Rate,  2013 39.6%included  in  the  new  health  care  law,  the  President’s  tax  policies  would  raise  the  top  marginal  tax  rate  to   PEP/PEASE  Provision  Re-­‐Instated,2013 41.6%44.8  percent  (see  Table  2).  A  “millionaire’s  surtax”   New  3.8%  Tax  on  Investment  Income,  2013 45.4%proposed  by  leaders  of  the  President’s  party  in  the  Senate  would  raise  Washington’s  take  of  each   CAPITAL  GAINSmarginal  dollar  earned  to  nearly  50  percent.   Top  Statutory  Rate,  2011 15.0%The  President’s  budget  would  also  increase  the  tax  rate  on  capital  gains  from  15  percent  to  20  percent  for   Expiration  of  Lower  2003  Rate,  2013 20.0%households  making  more  than  $250,000  ($200,000  for  individuals)  and  would  tax  dividends  at  ordinary   New  3.8%  Tax  on  Investment,  2013 23.8%income  tax  rates  (as  high  as  39.6  percent)  –  raising  taxes  on  investing  at  a  time  when  new  business  investment  is  critical  for  sustaining  the  weak  economic  recovery.  72  Congressional  Budget  Office,  Letter  to  Congressman  Paul  D.  Ryan,  May  2008.  73  “The  Moment  of  Truth,”  The  National  Commission  on  Fiscal  Responsibility  and  Reform,  December  2010.  http://www.fiscalcommission.gov/sites/fiscalcommission.gov/files/documents/TheMomentofTruth12_1_2010.pdf  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       64
    • Instead  of  offering  a  plan  for  tax  simplification,  the  President’s  budget  would  actually  make  the  code  more  complex  by  adding  new  credits  and  deductions,  as  well  as  complicated  new  tax  increases  such  as  the  so-­‐called  Buffett  Rule,  which  would  create  a  new  minimum  tax  rate  for  upper-­‐income  families.  To  accompany  the  added  complexity,  the  President’s  budget  provides  an  additional  $950  million  to  the  IRS,  which  has  an  annual  operating  budget  of  nearly  $13  billion. 74  The  President’s  own  Treasury  Secretary  admitted  that  the  tax  provisions  of  his  latest  budget  would  add  complexity  to  the  code,  because,  “if  you  try  to  get  more  revenues  out  of  the  current  tax  system  in  a  rational  way,  youre  going  to  do  things  that  are  complicated,  theres  no  doubt  about  it  and  thats  why  itd  be  better  to  do  it  through  tax  reform.”75Despite  acknowledging  that  tax  reform  offers  a  better  approach  than  the  President’s  budget,  the  administration  failed  for  the  fourth  budget  in  a  row  to  include  a  comprehensive  tax  reform  proposal.  Instead,  it  waited  until  several  weeks  after  the  release  of  its  budget  to  put  forward  a  partial  framework  on  tax  reform,  and  even  then  its  framework  was  limited  to  the  corporate  side  of  the  code.  The  administration’s  openness  to  lower  corporate  tax  rates,  while  promising,  falls  far  short  of  what  is  needed  for  comprehensive  reform.  Limiting  reform  to  the  corporate  code  creates  a  fundamental  imbalance  in  the  tax  system  because,  as  mentioned  above,  most  of  America’s  small  businesses  file  their  taxes  as  individuals.  Reform  should  not  tilt  the  playing  field  even  further  against  small  business.  Also,  instead  of  moving  towards  a  territorial  system  of  taxation,  which  would  remove  economic  incentives  that  encourage  employers  to  keep  profits  overseas,  the  President’s  framework  for  corporate  tax  reform  would  move  even  further  in  the  wrong  direction  by  imposing  a  “global  minimum  tax”  on  corporations  headquartered  in  the  United  States.  Rather  than  having  the  desired  effect  of  raising  taxes  on  multinationals,  this  misguided  approach  would  simply  encourage  existing  businesses  to  move  their  headquarters  abroad  and  new  businesses  to  incorporate  elsewhere.  The  President’s  vision  of  higher  tax  rates  for  small  businesses  and  more  complexity  in  the  tax  code  would  exacerbate  the  problems  with  the  current  code  and  lead  to  economic  decline.    Pro-­‐Growth  ReformLed  by  House  Ways  and  Means  Committee  Chairman  Dave  Camp  of  Michigan,  this  budget  advances  a  framework  that  calls  for  an  American  tax  system  that  is  simple,  fair  and  efficient  to  promote  innovation  and  sustained  job  creation  in  the  private  sector. 76  The  House  Ways  and  Means  Committee  held  more  than  a  dozen  hearings  devoted  to  tax  reform  last  year.  Last  October,  Chairman  Camp  formally  released  an  international  tax  reform  discussion  draft,  with  proposals  designed  to  boost  competitiveness  and  job  creation  in  the  United  States. 77  This  budget  reflects  the  progress  that  has  been  made  over  the  past  year  by  the  House  Ways  and  Means  Committee,  and  calls  for  continued  leadership  to  advance  tax  reform  in  the  year  ahead.74  “Fiscal  Year  2013  Budget  of  the  U.S.  Government,”  Office  of  Management  and  Budget,  February  2012.  http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2013/assets/budget.pdf  75  Timothy  Geithner,  Testimony  before  the  U.S.  House,  Committee  on  the  Budget,  The  President’s  Fiscal  Year  2013  Budget:  Revenue  and  Economic  Policy  Proposals,  February  16,  2012.76  This  framework  was  outlined  in  a  letter  signed  by  every  Republican  member  of  the  House  Ways  and  Means  Committee.  The  reforms  in  this  budget  are  inspired  by  the  hard  work  they  have  done  to  advance  the  principles  of  fundamental  tax  reform.  This  letter  can  be  found  online  at  http://budget.house.gov/UploadedFiles/WM_tax_agenda.pdf  77  “Comprehensive  Tax  Reform,”  House  Ways  and  Means  Committee,  October  26,  2011.  http://waysandmeans.house.gov/taxreform/House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       65
    • This  budget  starts  with  the  proposition  that  first,  Congress  must  do  no  harm.  It  assumes  that  Congress  will  not  allow  massive,  across-­‐the-­‐board  tax  increases  to  hit  the  economy  in  2013.  This  budget  then  attacks  complexity,  unfairness,  and  inefficiency  in  the  tax  code  with  a  set  of  fundamental  reforms  designed  to  lower  tax  rates,  broaden  the  tax  base,  and  reform  the  U.S.  international  tax  rules,  while  getting  rid  of  distortions,  loopholes  and  preferences  that  divert  economic  resources  from  their  most  efficient  uses.Following  the  unveiling  of  a  principled  approach  to  tax  reform  in  last  year’s  budget  resolution,  an  overwhelming  consensus  has  emerged  that  the  country  is  in  dire  need  of  tax  reform  that  lowers  rates,  broadens  the  tax  base,  and  addresses  global  competitiveness.  After  three  years,  the  administration  also  has  begun  to  recognize  the  need  for  tax  reform.  The  outline  for  corporate  tax  reform  released  by  the  administration  in  February,  however,  falls  woefully  short:  the  rates  are  too  high;  the  tax  base  is  too  narrow  to  benefit  special  interests;  and  the  international  reforms  are  anti-­‐competitive.  By  contrast,  the  principles  of  reform  outlined  in  this  budget  ensure  a  simpler,  fairer  tax  code  not  just  for  large  corporations  but  for  small  businesses  and  American  families  as  well.  Unlike  the  administration’s  plan,  it  improves  the  competitiveness  of  American  workers  and  businesses  in  the  global  economy.  America’s  trading  partners  have  already  reformed  their  tax  systems  to  provide  their  companies  with  a  competitive  advantage.  Competing  in  a  21st  century  global  economy  requires  that  America  do  the  same.   The  Solution:  Simplifying  the  Tax  Code  and  Promoting  Job  Creation  and  Economic  Growth• Reject  the  President’s  call  to  raise  taxes.  • Consolidate  the  current  six  individual  income  tax  brackets  into  just  two  brackets  of  10  and  25  percent.  • Reduce  the  corporate  rate  to  25  percent.• Repeal  the  Alternative  Minimum  Tax.• Broaden  the  tax  base  to  maintain  revenue  growth  at  a  level  consistent  with  current  tax  policy  and  at  a  share  of   the  economy  consistent  with  historical  norms  of  18  to  19  percent  in  the  following  decades.  • Shift  from  a  “worldwide”  system  of  taxation  to  a  “territorial”  tax  system  that  puts  American  companies  and   their  workers  on  a  level  playing  field  with  foreign  competitors  and  ends  the  “lock-­‐out  effect”  that  discourages   companies  from  bringing  back  foreign  earnings  to  invest  in  the  United  States. In  1981,  President  Ronald  Reagan  inherited  a  stagnant  economy  and  a  tax  code  that  featured  16  brackets,  with  a   top  rate  of  70  percent.  When  he  left  office  in  1989,  the  tax  code  had  been  simplified  down  to  just  three  brackets,   with  a  top  rate  of  28  percent.  Reagan’s  major  tax  reforms,  enacted  with  bipartisan  support  without  raising  taxes,   proved  to  be  a  cornerstone  of  the  unprecedented  economic  boom  that  occurred  in  the  decade  during  his  presidency   and  continued  in  the  decade  that  followed. Over  time,  additional  brackets,  credits,  carve-­‐outs  and  lobbyist  loopholes  have  undone  the  simpler  and  fairer  tax   code  ushered  in  by  the  1986  tax  reform.  In  the  last  ten  years  alone,  there  have  been  nearly  4,500  changes  made  to   the  tax  code.  The  current  version  for  individuals  has  six  brackets,  with  a  top  rate  of  35  percent  (which  is  set  to  climb   to  over  40  percent  after  the  end  of  2012,  when  hidden  rates  are  considered).  Individuals  react  negatively  toward  the   tax  code  partly  because  it  is  complex  and  attempts  to  steer  them  toward  certain  activities  and  away  from  others.  In   addition,  there  are  always  a  few  “surprises”  that  end  up  raising  their  tax  bills.  One  such  surprise  –  the  Alternative   Minimum  Tax  (AMT)  –  was  initially  designed  to  hit  only  the  very  highest-­‐income  taxpayers  but  now  ensnares  a   growing  number  of  middle-­‐income  households  because  of  a  flawed  design.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       66
    • This  budget  affirmatively  rejects  President  Obama’s  efforts  to  raise  tax  rates  on  small  businesses  and  investors  and   to  add  new  loopholes  to  the  tax  code  for  favored  interests.  Economic  theory  and  analysis  show  that  increasing   marginal  tax  rates  –  tax  increases  that  reduce  incentives  to  work,  save  and  invest  that  next  dollar  of  income  –   reduces  economic  output.  By  contrast,  reductions  in  marginal  tax  rates  increase  output,  mainly  by  letting  people   keep  more  of  each  dollar  they  earn  and  thereby  strengthening  incentives  to  work,  produce,  and  invest  in  the  future.   The  House  plan  both  realizes  the  job-­‐promoting  benefits  of  lower  rates  and  ensures  these  reductions  are  revenue   neutral  through  base  broadening.   Unlike  President  Obama’s  proposal,  the  House  plan  would  not  penalize  the  nearly  three  quarters  of  America’s  small   businesses  that  file  taxes  as  individuals  by  imposing  higher  individual  rates  that  make  it  harder  for  these  vital   enterprises  to  compete.  As  President  Obama  repeatedly  says,  small  businesses  have  been  responsible  for  two-­‐ thirds  of  the  jobs  created  in  the  United  States  over  the  past  15  years,  yet  he  often  neglects  to  point  out  that  roughly   50  percent  of  small-­‐business  profits  are  taxed  at  the  top  two  individual  tax  rates.78  Raising  these  rates  means   increasing  taxes  on  the  most  successful  job  creators. Raising  taxes  on  capital  is  another  idea  that  purports  to  affect  the  wealthy  but  actually  hurts  all  participants  in  the   economy.  Mainstream  economics,  not  to  mention  common  sense,  teaches  that  raising  taxes  on  any  activity   generally  results  in  less  of  it.  Economics  and  common  sense  also  teach  that  the  size  of  a  nation’s  capital  stock  –  the   pool  of  saved  money  available  for  investment  and  job  creation  –  has  an  effect  on  employment,  productivity,  and   wages.  Tax  reform  should  promote  savings  and  investment  because  more  savings  and  more  investment  mean  a   larger  stock  of  capital  available  for  job  creation.  That  means  more  jobs,  more  productivity,  and  higher  wages  for  all   American  workers. The  negative  effects  of  high  tax  rates  on  work,  savings  and  investment  are  compounded  when  a  large  mix  of   exemptions,  deductions  and  credits  are  added  to  the  system.  These  tax  preferences  are  similar  to  government   spending  –  instead  of  markets  directing  economic  resources  to  their  most  efficient  uses,  the  government  directs   resources  to  politically  favored  uses,  creating  a  drag  on  economic  growth  and  job  creation. In  the  worst  cases,  these  tax  subsidies  literally  take  the  form  of  spending  through  the  tax  code,  because  they  take   taxes  paid  by  hardworking  Americans  and  issue  government  checks  to  individuals  and  corporations  who  do  not  owe   any  taxes  at  all.  In  fact,  President  Obama’s  corporate  tax  “reform”  framework  would  expand  this  practice  by   transferring  taxes  paid  by  middle-­‐income  Americans  to  the  pockets  of  politically  favored  industries.   The  budget  would  eliminate  tax  subsidies,  not  for  the  purpose  of  increasing  total  tax  revenues,  but  instead  to  lower   rates.  This  reform  would  have  a  doubly  positive  impact  on  the  economy  –  it  would  stop  diverting   economic  resources  to  less  productive  uses,  while  making  possible  the  lower  tax  rates  that  provide  greater   incentives  for  economic  growth. There  is  an  emerging  bipartisan  consensus  for  tax  reform  that  lowers  tax  rates,  broadens  the  tax  base,  and   promotes  growth  and  job  creation.  President  Reagan’s  tax  reforms  inaugurated  an  era  of  great  prosperity.  It  is  time   to  build  upon  his  leadership  and  advance  a  fundamental  reform  of  the  broken  tax  code  as  a  critical  step  in  rebuilding   the  foundations  for  economic  growth:  spending  restraint,  reasonable  and  predictable  regulations,  sound  money,   and  a  simple  tax  code  with  low  rates.78  Brian  Headd,  “An  Analysis  of  Small  Business  and  Jobs,”  U.S.  Small  Business  Administration,  March  2010.  http://www.sba.gov/advocacy/849/7642;  “Table  1.4  All  Returns:  Sources  of  Income,  Adjustments,  and  Tax  Items,  by  Size  of  Adjusted  Gross  Income,  Tax  Year  2008.”  Internal  Revenue  Service.    http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-­‐soi/08in14ar.xlsHouse  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       67
    • House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       68
    • CHANGING  WASHINGTON’S  CULTURE  OF  SPENDING CHANGING WASHINGTON’S CULTURE OF SPENDING KEY  POINTS The  refusal  by  some  in  Washington  to  adhere  to  the  federal  budget  process  has   allowed  government  to  spend  recklessly  and  throw  tax  dollars  at  problems  on  an   ad  hoc  basis  as  the  nation’s  fiscal  hole  grows  deeper. This  budget  builds  on  the  reforms  advanced  by  the  House  Budget  Committee  to   make  the  budget  process  more  effective,  accountable  and  transparent. This  budget  establishes  a  binding  cap  on  total  spending  as  a  percentage  of  the   economy,  making  certain  the  federal  government  remains  limited  so  the   economy  can  remain  free. This  budget  extends  the  timeframe  of  the  federal  budget  process  to  capture   long-­‐term  unfunded  liabilities,  making  certain  that  government  fully  accounts  for   its  promises. This  budget  reforms  the  Credit  Reform  Act  to  incorporate  fair-­‐value  accounting   principles,  giving  taxpayers  a  more  honest  assessment  of  the  true  costs  of   government  loan  programs.   This  budget  requires  CBO  to  provide  an  assessment  of  the  macroeconomic   impact  of  major  legislation,  helping  to  address  Washington’s  bias  towards  ever-­‐ higher  spending.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       69
    • House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       70
    • CHANGING  WASHINGTON’S  CULTURE  OF  SPENDING The  Challenge:  The  Abandonment  of  Responsible  BudgetingDespite  the  best  intentions  of  budget  reformers  over  the  years,  mechanisms  for  spending  restraint  have  broken  down  over  time,  and  the  rules  remain  stacked  in  favor  of  politicians  who  want  to  spend  more  money.   • The  federal  budget  process  contains  numerous  structural  flaws  that  bias  the  government  toward  ever-­‐higher   levels  of  spending.   • Large  swaths  of  the  budget  are  not  held  accountable  on  a  regular  basis,  and  federal  budget  rules,  which  are   written  by  Congress,  assume  that  taxpayer  money  belongs  to  Washington,  not  taxpayers.   • The  processes  by  which  the  federal  government  spends  money  lack  the  transparency  that  is  needed  for   taxpayers  to  hold  Congress  accountable.Budget  process  reforms  alone  cannot  solve  our  spending  and  debt  problems,  but  coupled  with  actual  spending  restraint  and  structural  reforms  to  entitlement  programs,  budget  process  reforms  are  an  important,  if  not  critical,  part  of  the  equation.       The  Choice:  Spending  without  Restraints  vs.  Spending  Cuts  and  ControlsWhen  it  comes  to  fixing  the  broken  budget  process,  the  choice  facing  Americans  could  not  be  more  clear:  The  President  and  his  party’s  leaders  have  failed  to  take  their  budgetary  responsibilities  seriously.  By  contrast,  the  Republican  majority  in  the  House  met  its  legal  and  moral  obligation  by  passing  a  bold  budget  that  tackles  America’s  most  pressing  fiscal  challenges.    More  recently,  the  House  Budget  Committee  authored  and  advanced  several  reforms  aimed  at  bringing  more  accountability  to  the  federal  budget  process.  Spending  without  RestraintsThe  President  has  delivered  one  unserious  budget  after  another  –  none  dealing  with  the  nation’s  largest  fiscal  challenges.  Three  of  the  four  budgets  introduced  during  his  term  were  late  –  shattering  the  record  for  any  administration  for  missed  budget  deadlines.    While  the  President’s  budgets  have  been  badly  flawed,  the  U.S.  Senate  has  not  passed  a  budget  in  over  1,000  days,  and  last  year  Senate  Democrats  not  only  failed  to  pass  a  budget  resolution:  They  failed  to  even  propose  one.  Spending  Cuts  and  ControlsThe  purpose  of  budgeting  is  to  offer  the  nation  a  vision  for  the  country’s  future.  Where  there  is  a  contrast  between  two  visions,  the  budget  process  is  intended  to  offer  the  American  people  an  honest  debate.  But  while  the  President  and  his  party’s  leaders  have  shirked  their  duty  to  offer  the  nation  that  debate,  the  House  has  passed  a  bold  budget  that  changed  the  conversation  in  Washington  over  the  nation’s  fiscal  crisis.Not  only  have  House  Republicans  met  their  obligation  to  budget,  but  they  have  also  introduced  and  passed  reforms  to  strengthen  the  budget  process.  These  reforms  adhere  to  the  principle  that  the  process  needs  to  give  policymakers  new  tools  to  bring  spending  under  control;  to  get  deficits  and  debt  under  control;  to  enhance  oversight;  and  to  increase  transparency  in  the  budget  process.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       71
    • The  Solution:  Changing  Washington’s  Culture  of  SpendingSpending  Control• Replace  the  discretionary  sequester  in    FY2013  with  a  new  cap,  and  maintain  enforceable  discretionary  caps  on   spending  throughout  the  next  decade.79• Establish  a  binding  cap  on  total  spending  as  a  percentage  of  the  economy  at  levels  projected  to  result  from   this  budget  resolution.  Cap  the  total  size  of  government,  enforced  by  a  sequester.• Require  any  increase  in  mandatory  spending  to  be  accompanied  by  spending  reductions  (i.e.,  replace  the   current  statutory  “PAYGO”  legislation  with  “CUTGO”  legislation).  • Create  a  budget  point  of  order  against  legislation  that  increases  net  mandatory  spending  beyond  the  ten-­‐year   window,  a  limitation  that  can  help  check  congressional  appetite  to  create  costly  open-­‐ended  entitlement   programs.• Close  the  loophole  that  allows  discretionary  limits  to  be  circumvented  through  advance  appropriations.  • Take  mandatory  spending  off  of  autopilot  by  capping  major  categories  of  this  spending  at  the  levels  set  forth   in  this  budget,  and  reform  the  budget  process  to  require  a  regular  Congressional  review  of  mandatory   spending  programs.     The  Spending  Control  Act  (SCA),  introduced  last  year  by  Representative  John  Campbell,  would  address  the  problem   of  out-­‐of-­‐control  spending  by  establishing  binding  limitations  on  federal  spending  and  deficits  to  provide  Congress   with  a  set  of  comprehensive  controls  as  it  addresses  the  nation’s  deficits  and  debt  crisis.  These  limitations  are  in  the   form  of  statutory  caps  on  the  various  categories  of  government  spending  and  on  deficits.  Enhanced  Oversight• Reform  the  budget  “baseline”  to  remove  automatic  inflation  increases  in  discretionary  accounts  and  require  a   comparison  to  the  previous  year’s  spending  levels. Earlier  this  year,  the  House  passed  legislation  introduced  by  Representative  Rob  Woodall  to  address  this  problem.   The  Baseline  Reform  Act  would  reform  the  baseline  against  which  legislation  is  scored  by  removing  the  assumption   that  discretionary  spending  will  automatically  increase  by  inflation  in  each  year  of  the  baseline.   The  legislation  also  requires  the  CBO  to  prepare  an  alternative  projection  of  the  baseline  assuming  the  extension  of   current  tax  policies.  Lastly,  it  codifies  the  current  practice  of  the  CBO  providing  a  long-­‐term  budget  outlook  no  later   than  July  1  of  each  year.  Full  Transparency• Extend  the  timeframe  of  the  federal  budget  process  to  capture  long-­‐term  unfunded  liabilities.• Budget  for  the  long-­‐term  term  by  establishing  binding  caps  for  major  categories  of  spending.• Require  Congress  to  review  long-­‐term  budget  trends  every  five  years  and  allows  Congress  to  put  federal   spending  on  a  sustainable  path  through  a  fast-­‐track  legislative  process.• Authorize  reconciliation  of  long-­‐term  savings  (beyond  the  current  limit  of  the  budget  resolution’s  typical  ten-­‐ year  window)  up  to  75  years  for  Social  Security,  Medicare,  and  Medicaid.79  For  more  details,  see  Appendix  II  of  this  report.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       72
    • • Require  CBO  long-­‐term  estimates  beyond  the  ten-­‐year  window,  and  require  the  President’s  budget  to  extend   beyond  the  ten-­‐year  window. The  Balancing  our  Obligations  for  the  Long  Term  (BOLT)  Act,  introduced  last  year  by  Representative  Mick   Mulvaney,  builds  on  the  statutory  spending  controls  established  in  the  Budget  Control  Act  by  extending  those   controls  beyond  the  ten-­‐year  budget  window.  It  also  requires  that  Congress  and  the  President  consider  the  long-­‐ term  fiscal  impact  of  policy  proposals.   The  BOLT  Act  also  provides  for  enhanced  information  and  analysis  to  be  made  available  to  assist  Congress  in  the   consideration  of  the  long-­‐term  implications  of  the  legislation.  The  CBO  is  required  under  the  BOLT  Act  to  prepare   estimates  of  the  long-­‐term  implications  of  major  legislation  in  time  for  Congress  to  consider  that  information   during  its  debates.  Meanwhile,  GAO  and  the  Office  of  Management  and  Budget  (OMB)  would  be  required  to   provide  annual  analyses  of  the  government’s  fiscal  condition,  specifically  the  long-­‐term  unfunded  obligations  of  the   U.S.  government.  The  President’s  budget  request  would  also  be  required  to  include  long-­‐term  projections  of  the   budget  and  of  the  policies  proposed  in  that  request.  • Reform  the  Credit  Reform  Act  to  incorporate  fair-­‐value  accounting  principles.  • Recognize  the  budgetary  impact  of  the  GSEs  by  formally  bringing  the  entities  on-­‐budget. The  Budget  and  Accounting  Transparency  Act,  sponsored  by  Representative  Scott  Garrett  and  passed  by  the  House   earlier  this  year,  increases  transparency  in  federal  budgeting  by  reforming  the  way  certain  costs  are  calculated  and   requiring  that  certain  costs  incurred  by  the  federal  government  are  included  in  the  budget.   Most  importantly  the  legislation  requires  that  in  calculating  the  costs  of  federal  credit  programs  (i.e.,  programs   offering  loans  or  loan  guarantees),  the  executive  branch  and  Congress  use  “fair  value”  methodologies  that  consider   not  only  the  borrowing  costs  of  the  federal  government,  but  also  the  costs  of  the  market  risk  the  federal   government  is  incurring  by  issuing  a  loan  or  loan  guarantee  or  by  making  an  investment  in  a  private  entity.  This   reform  would  bring  federal  budgeting  in  line  with  private-­‐sector  cost-­‐estimating  practices.  • Require  CBO  to  provide  an  assessment  of  the  macroeconomic  impact  of  major  legislation. The  Pro-­‐Growth  Budgeting  Act,  sponsored  by  Representative  Tom  Price  and  passed  by  the  House  earlier  this  year,   requires  that,  for  major  legislation,  the  CBO  prepare  an  analysis  of  the  effect  that  legislation  could  have  on  the  U.S.   economy.  This  analysis  must  include  an  estimate  of  the  changes  in  economic  output,  employment,  capital  stock,   interest  rates,  and  tax  revenues  resulting  from  the  enactment  of  the  proposal.  For  purposes  of  this  legislation,   major  legislation  is  defined  as  any  legislation  estimated  by  the  CBO  to  have  a  budgetary  effect  of  at  least  0.25   percent  of  GDP  (approximately  $38  billion  in  2011)  in  any  year  within  the  budget  window.  These  analyses  would   cover  the  next  40  years.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       73
    • House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       74
    • LIFTING  THE  CRUSHING  BURDEN  OF  DEBT LIFTING THE CRUSHING BURDEN OF DEBT KEY  POINTS This  budget  cuts  government  spending  from  its  current  elevated  level  of  24   percent  of  the  economy  to  20  percent  by  2015.   Relative  to  the  President’s  budget,  this  budget  cuts  spending  by  more  than  $5   trillion  over  the  next  ten  years.     Relative  to  the  President’s  budget,  this  budget  shows  more  than  $3  trillion  in   lower  deficits  over  the  next  ten  years.   This  budget  sharply  reduces  publicly  held  debt  as  a  share  of  GDP  over  its  first  ten   years.  By  contrast,  the  President’s  budget  drives  the  debt  further  in  the  wrong   direction  and  allows  government’s  fiscal  position  to  “deteriorate”  after  that.   The  non-­‐partisan  CBO  estimates  that  this  budget  will  balance  and  begin  to   produce  annual  surpluses  by  2040,  and  it  will  start  paying  down  the  national  debt   after  that. This  budget  cuts  debt  by  tens  of  trillions  over  time  relative  to  the  President’s  path   to  a  debt-­‐fueled  economic  crisis  and  permanent  decline.    House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       75
    • House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       76
    • LIFTING  THE  CRUSHING  BURDEN  OF  DEBT The  Challenge:  Debt-­‐Fueled  Economic  Crisis  AheadThe  United  States  faces  a  crushing  burden  of  debt  –  a  debt  that  just  last  year  surpassed  the  size  of  the  entire  U.S.  economy.  If  left  on  the  course  set  forth  by  President  Obama’s  most  recent  budget,  the  ever-­‐rising  debt  will  trigger  an  inevitable  crisis  and  a  state  of  decline  that  will  be  difficult,  if  not  impossible,  to  reverse  once  it  takes  hold.  In  the  years  ahead,  his  budget  concedes  that  the  federal  government’s  “fiscal  position  gradually  deteriorates.”80  This  admission  is  reminiscent  of  Ernest  Hemingway’s  explanation  of  how  one  goes  bankrupt:  “Gradually,  then  suddenly.”81The  United  States  has  confronted  extraordinary  challenges  in  its  past,  both  military  and  economic,  from  Pearl  Harbor  to  the  9/11  terrorist  attacks,  the  Great  Depression  to  the  Financial  Crisis  of  2008.  In  each  of  these  cases,  America’s  citizenry  and  her  leaders  were  taken  by  surprise.  But  this  time,  the  debt  and  the  crisis  that  it  will  engender  would  be  one  of  the  most  severe,  yet  predictable  crises  in  the  country’s  history.      The  ongoing  sovereign  debt  crises  in  Greece  and  other  highly-­‐indebted  European  countries  provide  a  cautionary  tale  for  America.  Lenders  cannot  and  will  not  finance  unsustainable  deficits  forever,  and  when  market  forces  provide  a  swift  reality  check  for  profligate  governments,  severe  economic  turmoil  ensues.  In  examining  Washington’s  fiscal  future,  nearly  every  fiscal  expert  has  warned  that  a  major  debt  crisis  is  inevitable  if  the  U.S.  government  remains  on  its  current  unsustainable  path.  The  government’s  failure  to  prevent  this  completely  preventable  crisis  would  rank  among  history’s  most  infamous  episodes  of  political  malpractice.  Debt  as  an  Impediment  to  GrowthThe  debt  is  not  just  a  far-­‐off  problem  –  it  is  having  real  effects  today.  In  fact,  the  uncertainty  associated  with  the  government’s  unsustainable  future  is  emerging  as  one  of  the  primary  factors  currently  weighing  down  the  economy.When  the  President  took  office  in  2009,  he  and  his  party’s  leaders  decided  that  the  best  way  to  boost  economic  activity  would  be  to  ramp  up  government  spending  dramatically  through  “stimulus”  spending.  But  while  this  spending  provided  a  boon  to  politically  connected  industries  and  favored  interest  groups,  it  failed  to  deliver  sustained  economic  growth  and  job  creation.  80  “Fiscal  Year  2013  Budget  of  the  U.S.  Government:  Analytical  Perspectives,”  Office  of  Management  and  Budget,  February  2012.  http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2013/assets/spec.pdf81  Ernest  Hemingway,  The  Sun  Also  Rises.  Scribner,  1926.  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       77
    • One  of  the  main  reasons  this  strategy  failed  is  simple:  It  contributed  to  deficits  soaring  above  $1  trillion  a  year,  added  trillions  to  the  debt  and  increased  the  probability  of  a  debt-­‐fueled  economic  crisis  hitting  the  United  States.  Americans  know  that  today’s  large  debt  levels  are  simply  tomorrow’s  tax  hikes,  interest  rate  increases,  or  inflation  –  and  economic  actors  in  the  private  sector  respond  accordingly.  In  light  of  clear  evidence  that  this  stimulus  spending  did  not  achieve  its  promised  results,  there  is  a  growing  bipartisan  consensus  regarding  the  problem  of  growing  debt  and  its  detrimental  economic  impact.  This  debt  overhang  and  the  uncertainty  it  generates  also  weigh  on  U.S.  growth,  investment,  and  job  creation  today,  because  Americans  make  decisions  on  a  forward-­‐looking  basis.  Investors,  businesses  and  families  look  at  the  size  of  the  debt  and  the  state  of  the  economy  and  fear  that  America  is  heading  for  a  diminished  future.  Prominent  economists  argue  that  the  key  to  jump-­‐starting  U.S.  economic  growth  and  job  creation  is  tangible  action  to  rein  in  the  growth  of  government  spending  with  the  aim  of  getting  debt  under  control.  While  all  spending  cuts  need  not  take  effect  immediately,  there  is  a  growing  urgency  on  setting  forth  reforms  that  curb  Washington’s  spending  appetite.  The  reforms  themselves  can  –  and  should  –  be  gradual,  but  locking  in  a  fiscally  sustainable  path  going  forward  can  produce  much  needed  certainty  for  economic  actors  today.Last  year,  economists  George  Shultz,  John  Taylor,  and  Gary  Becker  wrote  that,  “Credible  actions  that  reduce  the  rapid  growth  of  federal  spending  and  debt  will  raise  economic  growth  and  lower  the  unemployment  rate.  Higher  private  investment,  not  more  government  purchases,  is  the  surest  way  to  increase  prosperity.”82  In  addition  to  warnings  from  Shultz,  Taylor  and  Becker,  150  prominent  economists  sent  a  letter  to  President  Obama  last  year  making  clear  that  responsible  spending  restraint  by  the  federal  government  would  help  foster  a  more  conducive  environment  for  job  creation.  In  support  of  Speaker  John  Boehner’s  proposal  to  ensure  that  any  increase  in  the  debt  limit  was  matched  by  spending  cuts  of  greater  size,  the  economists  –  including  two  Nobel  Prize  winners  –  stated:  “An  increase  in  the  nation’s  debt  limit  that  is  not  accompanied  by  significant  spending  cuts  and  budget  reforms  would  harm  private-­‐sector  job  growth  and  represent  a  tremendous  setback  in  the  effort  to  deal  with  our  national  debt.”83Federal  Reserve  Chairman  Ben  Bernanke  echoed  a  similar  sentiment  in  a  speech  last  year,  saying  that  putting  in  place  a  credible  plan  to  reduce  future  deficits  “would  not  only  enhance  economic  performance  in  the  long  run,  but  could  also  yield  near-­‐term  benefits  by  leading  to  lower  long-­‐term  interest  rates  and  increased  consumer  and  business  confidence.”84  It  is  clear  that  if  policymakers  are  serious  about  encouraging  robust  job  creation,  they  need  to  chart  a  more  sustainable  fiscal  course.  Nearing  a  Debt  CrisisIn  addition  to  being  an  impediment  to  growth  today,  the  prospect  of  rising  debt  threatens  American  families  and  businesses  with  even  greater  economic  harm  in  the  foreseeable  future.Like  a  household  or  business,  a  nation’s  indebtedness  is  best  understood  in  terms  of  how  much  it  owes  relative  to  how  much  it  makes.  By  that  measure,  debt  held  by  the  public  –  money  that  the  U.S.  government  owes  to  others  –  has  reached  nearly  70  percent  of  the  entire  U.S.  economy.  82  Gary  Becker,  George  Schultz,  and  John  Taylor,  “Time  for  a  Budget  Game-­‐Changer”,  Wall  Street  Journal,  April  4,  2011.  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704471904576231010618488684.html  83  “A  Debt  Limit  Increase  Without  Significant  Spending  Cuts  and  Budget  Reforms  Will  Destroy  American  Jobs”,  June  1,  2011.  http://www.speaker.gov/UploadedFiles/ECONOMISTS-­‐STATEMENT-­‐ON-­‐JOBS-­‐AND-­‐DEBT-­‐LIMIT-­‐HIKE.pdf  84  Benjamin  S.  Bernanke,  Speech  to  the  International  Monetary  Conference,  Atlanta,  Georgia.  June  7,  2011.  http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20110607a.htm    House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       78
    • If  this  were  merely  a  temporary  rise  in  the  debt,  it  would  not  be  so  alarming.  However,  the  spending  spree  of  the  last  two  years,  combined  with  the  coming  retirement  of  nearly  80  million  baby  boomers,  threatens  to  turn  these  recent  deficit  spikes  into  a  permanent  plunge  into  debt.  Debt  held  by  the  public  in  excess  of  60  percent  of  the  economy  is  not  sustainable  for  an  extended  period  of  time.  That  is  bad  news  for  the  United  States.  According  to  the  CBO,  the  President’s  budget  would  keep  the  debt  climbing  as  a  share  of  the  economy  in  the  decade  ahead,  from  nearly  68  percent  last  year  to  over  76  percent  of  the  U.S.  economy  by  2022.  How  a  Debt  Crisis  Would  Unfold  The  first  sign  that  a  debt  crisis  has  arrived  is  that  bond  investors  lose  confidence  in  a  government’s  ability  to  pay  its  debts  –  and  by  that  point,  it  is  usually  too  late  to  avoid  severe  disruption  and  economic  pain.  Right  now,  the  U.S.  government  is  able  to  borrow  at  historically  low  rates,  partly  because  of  the  Fed’s  interventions  in  the  market,  but  also  because  the  bonds  of  most  foreign  countries  are  looking  even  riskier.  Neither  of  these  conditions  is  going  to  last.  Interest  rates  –  and  the  burden  of  paying  interest  on  the  debt  –  have  nowhere  to  go  but  up.  Interest  payments  are  already  consuming  around  10  cents  of  every  tax  dollar.  But  as  interest  rates  rise  from  their  current  historically  low  levels  and  debt  continues  to  mount,  interest  payments  are  projected  to  consume  over  15  percent  of  all  tax  revenue  by  2022.  That  means  that  nearly  one  in  six  tax  dollars  will  be  dedicated  to  making  interest  payments  by  the  end  of  the  decade  –  and  that’s  according  to  optimistic  projections  about  interest  rates.  If  interest  rates  increase  by  a  higher-­‐than-­‐expected  amount  in  future  –  which  appears  to  be  more  likely  –  then  the  nation’s  interest  payments  could  cost  trillions  of  dollars  more.It  would  be  one  thing  if  the  U.S.  government  owed  most  of  this  money  to  domestic  lenders.  But  the  nation’s  reliance  on  foreign  creditors  has  increased  dramatically  over  the  past  few  decades.  Foreigners  now  own  roughly  half  of  all  publicly  held  U.S.  debt,  a  sharp  increase  from  a  generation  ago  when  foreigners  owned  just  5  percent  of  U.S.  debt.  This  makes  the  nation  vulnerable  to  a  sudden  shift  in  foreign  investor  sentiment,  particularly  during  a  time  of  crisis. If  foreign  investors  begin  to  lose   confidence  in  the  U.S.  government’s   ability  to  solve  its  most  difficult  fiscal   challenges,  then  they  will  demand   higher  compensation  to  offset  the   perceived  risk  of  holding  U.S.  debt  –   meaning  sharply  higher  interest  rates.   During  the  financial  crisis,  foreigners   flocked  to  Treasury  debt  simply   because  other  investments  looked  so   unsafe  by  comparison,  and  this  helped   keep  interest  rates  low.  But  these   investment  flows  work  both  ways,  as   the  heavily  indebted  nations  of  Europe   have  recently  learned.  If  the  Congress   continues  to  put  off  difficult  choices   regarding  the  nation’s  long-­‐term   problems,  foreign  investors  will  re-­‐ evaluate  the  creditworthiness  of  the   United  States  and  demand  higher   interest  rates.  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       79
    • The  Consequences  of  InactionThe  economic  effects  of  a  debt  crisis  on  the  United  States  would  be  far  worse  than  what  the  nation  experienced  during  the  financial  crisis  of  2008.  For  starters,  no  entity  on  the  planet  is  large  enough  to  bail  out  the  U.S.  government.  Absent  a  bailout,  the  only  solutions  to  a  debt  crisis  would  be  truly  painful:  massive  tax  increases,  sudden  and  disruptive  cuts  to  vital  programs,  runaway  inflation,  or  all  three.  This  would  create  a  huge  hole  in  the  economy  that  would  be  exacerbated  by  panic.  StagflationEven  if  high  debt  did  not  cause  a  crisis,  the  nation  would  be  in  for  a  long  and  grinding  period  of  economic  decline.  A  well-­‐known  study  completed  by  economists  Ken  Rogoff  and  Carmen  Reinhart  confirms  this  common-­‐sense  conclusion.  The  study  found  conclusive  empirical  evidence  that  gross  debt  (meaning  all  debt  that  a  government  owes,  including  debt  held  in  government  trust  funds)  exceeding  90  percent  of  the  economy  has  a  significant  negative  effect  on  economic  growth.85  This  is  bad  news  for  the  United  States,  where  gross  debt  exceeded  100  percent  of  GDP  last  year.  The  study  looked  specifically  at  the  United  States,  focusing  on  growth  and  inflation  relative  to  past  periods  when  this  nation  has  experienced  high  debt  levels.  Not  only  is  average  economic  growth  dramatically  lower  when  gross  U.S.  debt  exceeds  90  percent  of  the  economy,  but  also  inflation  becomes  a  problem.  Essentially,  the  study  confirmed  that  massive  debts  of  the  kind  the  nation  is  on  track  to  accumulate  are  associated  with  “stagflation”  –  a  toxic  mix  of  economic  stagnation  and  rising  inflation.Real  pain  for  familiesWarning  signs  in  financial  markets  would  merely  be  a  harbinger  of  the  real  economic  pain  that  would  eventually  be  felt  by  American  families  in  the  event  of  a  debt  crisis.Much  higher  interest  rates  on  government  debt  would  translate  into  much  higher  interest  rates  on  mortgages,  credit  cards  and  car  loans.  These  higher  rates  would  most  likely  come  as  a  shock  to  most  Americans,  who  have  grown  accustomed  to  borrowing  in  a  climate  of  historically-­‐low  interest  rates.  It  might  even  shock  those  who  lived  through  the  double-­‐digit  interest  rates  of  the  early  1980s.  Despite  the  increase  in  saving  rates  that  has  occurred  in  the  wake  of  the  financial  crisis,  U.S.  households  are  still  heavily  indebted.  The  nation’s  households  still  owe  $13  trillion  in  private  debt,  or  roughly  120  percent  of  their  total  disposable  income.  A  large  chunk  of  that  total  debt  consists  of  home  mortgages,  while  the  rest  is  in  credit  cards  and  other  forms  of  debt.  It  turns  out  that  roughly  half  of  all  that  debt  is  in  the  form  of  variable  interest  rate  loans,  meaning  that  a  sudden  increase  in  Treasury  bond  rates  would  lead  to  higher  borrowing  costs  for  consumers  relatively  quickly.  According  to  the  current  level  and  composition  of  U.S.  household  debt,  estimates  suggest  that  an  interest  rate  increase  of  just  1  percentage  point  would  lead  to  over  $400  in  extra  interest  payments  each  year  for  the  average  family.  Given  that  a  serious  debt  crisis  could  lead  to  a  sharp  increase  in  Treasury  rates,  the  added  interest  costs  for  the  typical  family  could  easily  exceed  $1,000  per  year.  As  household  borrowing  costs  spiked,  growth  in  overall  consumer  spending,  which  accounts  for  nearly  70  percent  of  the  U.S.  economy,  would  decline.  85  Carmen  M.  Reinhart  and  Kenneth  S.  Rogoff.  “Growth  in  a  Time  of  Debt,”  American  Economic  Review  Papers  and  Proceedings,  January  2010.  http://www.economics.harvard.edu/files/faculty/51_Growth_in_Time_Debt.pdf  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       80
    • Real  pain  for  businessesHigher  borrowing  costs  would  also  serve  as  a  serious  impediment  for  businesses.  The  rise  in  interest  rates  would  lead  to  lower  business  investment  as  companies  would  face  a  much  higher  hurdle  for  profitability  on  potential  expansion  plans.  Businesses  would  be  doubly  squeezed  because,  as  their  funding  costs  were  rising,  demand  for  their  products  (particularly  consumer  durables  bought  on  credit  like  cars,  home  furnishings,  etc.)  would  be  slipping  as  consumer  spending  tailed  off.  Add  in  higher  taxes  from  a  cash-­‐strapped  government  trying  to  appease  its  creditors,  and  the  inevitable  result  would  be  less  business  expansion  and  higher  unemployment.  Harsh  austerityAs  economic  growth  deteriorates,  it  becomes  harder  for  the  government  to  raise  revenue  through  taxes,  and  a  vicious  cycle  ensues.  If  the  nation  ultimately  experiences  a  panicked  run  on  its  debt,  it  will  be  forced  to  make  immediate  and  painful  fiscal  adjustments  (like  the  austerity  program  that  has  provoked  riots  and  a  deepening  recession  in  Greece).  Facing  the  inability  to  borrow  at  a  reasonable  rate  in  the  market,  the  government  would  have  to  slash  spending  and  raise  taxes  to  narrow  its  large  fiscal  gap.  In  such  a  crisis,  the  Fed  may  also  face  rising  pressure  to  step  in  and  “monetize”  the  government’s  debt  –  essentially  printing  money  to  buy  up  the  public  debt  that  private  investors  refuse  to  finance.  The  consequences  of  these  actions  would  be  disastrous  for  the  U.S.  and  the  global  economy.  If  the  U.S.  government  were  forced  to  address  such  a  situation  by  cutting  domestic  spending  and  raising  taxes  to  close  the  budget  gap,  it  would  be  compelled  to  do  so  indiscriminately.  Promises  to  current  retirees  would  be  broken,  and  tax  rates  would  be  raised  across-­‐the-­‐board,  without  regard  for  the  economic  consequences.  Monetizing  the  debt,  meanwhile,  would  soon  lead  to  a  destabilizing  inflation.  This  would  wipe  out  the  savings  of  millions  of  Americans,  hitting  seniors  the  hardest.  When  combined  with  benefit  cuts,  this  would  mean  punishing  seniors  twice.  Financial  system  breakdownThe  U.S.  dollar  is  the  world’s  reserve  currency,  and  U.S.  Treasury  bonds  are  the  lynchpin  of  global  debt  markets,  considered  to  be  safe  and  highly  liquid  assets  by  virtually  all  financial  institutions  worldwide.  A  U.S.  debt  crisis  would  lead  to  sharp  declines  in  the  dollar  and  in  the  price  of  these  bonds,  causing  a  deterioration  of  the  balance  sheets  of  large  financial  institutions.  The  resulting  panic  would  be  orders  of  magnitude  more  disruptive  that  than  the  financial  crisis  in  2008. The  Choice:  A  Path  to  Decline  vs.  A  Path  to  ProsperityWithout  bold  new  leadership,  the  unsustainable  trajectory  of  the  national  debt  will  trigger  a  sharp  and  sudden  debt  crisis  that  would  threaten  national  security,  hit  seniors  and  low-­‐income  Americans  the  hardest,  and  leave  all  Americans  with  a  diminished  future.  This  looming  crisis  represents  an  enormous  challenge,  but  it  also  represents  a  defining  choice:  whether  to  continue  down  the  path  of  debt,  doubt  and  decline  or  put  the  nation  back  on  the  path  to  prosperity.  The  President’s  budget  offers  a  clear  illustration  of  the  former  approach.  By  contrast,  House  Republicans  offered  a  budget  last  year  that  would  lift  the  debt  and  grow  the  economy.  In  response  to  the  President’s  latest  failure  to  lead,  House  have  again  offered  another  budget  resolution  that  is  equal  to  the  nation’s  challenges.  A  Path  to  DeclineAfter  four  budget  submissions,  the  President  has  failed  to  use  his  term  to  confront  the  nation’s  most  pressing  fiscal  and  economic  challenges.  His  fourth  budget  advances  policies  that  dangerously  accelerate  the  fiscal  crisis  America  faces.  His  budget  fails  to  reduce  the  fast-­‐rising  debt,  entrenches  unsustainable  levels  of  government  spending,  and  erects  new  barriers  to  upward  mobility.  His  plan  stifles  economic  growth,  threatens  the  health  and  retirement  security  of  millions  of  Americans,  and  commits  the  next  generation  to  a  diminished  future.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       81
    • Spending:  President  Obama’s  budget  includes  more  of  the  same  failed  spending  policies  he  has  pursued  since  taking  office  –  policies  that  would  worsen  the  nation’s  fiscal  crisis  and  speed  the  country  to  bankruptcy.  Three  years  after  the  passage  of  the  President’s  trillion-­‐dollar  spending  stimulus,  the  President  is  at  it  again,  calling  for  more  wasteful  spending  taken  from  workers’  paychecks  or  borrowed  from  abroad.  The  massive  spending  increases  are  greater  than  the  few  proposed  spending  reductions,  for  a  net  spending  increase  of  $1.5  trillion  over  ten  years.  Deficits:  When  he  first  took  office,  the  President  promised  to  cut  the  deficit  in  half  by  the  end  of  his  term.  Four  straight  trillion-­‐dollar  deficits  later,  he  hasn’t  even  come  close.  His  latest  budget  projects  a  deficit  of  $1.3  trillion  for  FY2012.  While  some  had  hoped  that  the  President  might  take  some  responsibility  for  breaking  his  promise,  he  has  offered  only  excuses  –  for  example,  that  the  recession  turned  out  to  be  deeper  than  he  realized.  But  this  excuse  does  not  stand  up  to  scrutiny:  As  recently  as  February  of  last  year,  well  after  the  full  extent  of  the  recession  was  known,  the  President  emphatically  stated  that  he  planned  to  keep  his  promise  to  cut  the  deficit  in  half,  and  provided  projections  to  prove  it.86  This  pattern  –  promising  one  thing,  then  delivering  another  –  casts  doubt  on  the  President’s  latest  round  of  promises  and  projections,  which  show  deficits  falling  over  time.Debt:  Under  President  Obama’s  watch,  the  federal  government’s  total  debt  has  surpassed  the  size  of  the  economy  –  undermining  job  creation  today  and  threatening  a  debt  crisis  tomorrow.  According  to  its  own  numbers,  the  President’s  budget  ignores  the  drivers  of  the  debt,  bringing  America  perilously  close  to  a  European-­‐style  crisis.The  President’s  own  budget  confirms  that  if  policymakers  continue  down  the  present  course,  the  consequences  will  be  dire  (see  Figure  11  above).  American  families  are  still  reeling  from  the  hardships  of  the  recent  economic  downturn,  and  millions  of  individuals  remain  out  of  work.  Yet  Washington  continues  to  erect  to  new  barriers  to  growth,  to  raise  the  hurdles  to  sustained  private-­‐sector  job  creation,  and  –  most  distressingly  –  to  accelerate  the  nation  ever-­‐faster  toward  a  debt-­‐fueled  economic  crisis.  The  CBO  has  warned  that  “persistent  deficits  and  continually  mounting  debt  would  have  several  negative  economic  consequences  for  the  United  States…  a  growing  level  of  federal  debt  would  also  increase  the  probability  of  a  sudden  fiscal  crisis.”8786  Andrew  Stiles,  “Obama’s  Deficit  of  Trust,”  Free  Beacon.  February  15,  2012.  http://freebeacon.com/obamas-­‐deficit-­‐of-­‐trust/87  “Federal  Debt  and  the  Risk  of  a  Fiscal  Crisis,”  Congressional  Budget  Office,  July  27,  2010.  http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/116xx/doc11659/07-­‐27_Debt_FiscalCrisis_Brief.pdfHouse  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       82
    • Broken  Promises:  By  failing  to  put  forward  long-­‐overdue  reforms,  his  budget  allows  Social  Security  to  fall  into  bankruptcy  (imposing  an  across-­‐the-­‐board  23  percent  cut  on  seniors)  and  gives  unaccountable  government  bureaucrats  control  over  cutting  Medicare  in  ways  that  would  result  in  denied  care  for  seniors.  No  credible  action  is  taken  to  lift  the  crushing  burden  of  debt.  This  President’s  empty  promises  are  quickly  becoming  broken  promises  for  millions  of  Americans.A  Path  to  ProsperityThis  budget  charts  a  brighter  future.  With  responsible  spending  cuts  now  and  structural  reforms  of  government  spending  programs  going  forward,  it  ensures  government  spending  remains  on  a  sustainable  path.  This  plan  of  action  puts  an  end  to  empty  promises  from  a  bankrupt  government,  and  instead  restores  the  fundamental  American  promise:  ensuring  future  generations  inherit  a  stronger  America,  with  greater  opportunity  than  their  parents  were  afforded.  This  unique  American  legacy  –  of  leaving  the  next  generation  better  off  –  must  be  restored.  This  is  America’s  defining  challenge. The  Solution:  Lifting  the  Crushing  Burden  of  DebtSpendingUnder  this  budget,  government  spending  will  fall  from  its  current  elevated  level  of  24  percent  of  the  economy  to  below  20  percent  by  2015.  Restoring  spending  discipline  in  Washington  is  a  necessary  precondition  for  economic  growth  and  job  creation.  While  funding  levels  for  government’s  core  responsibilities  and  advance  national  priorities  still  grow,  this  budget  ensures  that  government’s  role  is  limited  and  effective  and  that  government  spending  is  put  on  a  sustainable  path.  As  the  economy  grows,  government  spending  as  a  share  of  the  economy  will  steadily  recede  over  the  decades  ahead.  Relative  to  the  President’s  budget,  this  budget  cuts  spending  by  more  than  $5  trillion  over  the  next  ten  years.  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       83
    •  DeficitsThis  budget  charts  a  sustainable  path  going  forward,  ultimately  erasing  the  budget  deficit  completely.  It  brings  the  deficit  below  $800  billion  in  Fiscal  Year  2013,  whereas  the  President’s  budget  would  once  again  borrow  close  to  $1  trillion.  After  four  straight  deficits  in  excess  of  $1  trillion  –  and  a  gusher  of  red  ink  over  the  next  decade,  the  President’s  budget  path  never,  ever  reaches  balance.  Relative  to  the  President’s  budget,  this  budget  shows  more  than  $3  trillion  in  lower  deficits  over  the  next  ten  years.  The  deficit  drops  below  1  percent  of  GDP  by  2016.  And  according  to  CBO  estimates,  it  reaches  balance  in  the  years  ahead,  produces  surpluses,  and  pays  down  the  debt.DebtThis  budget  tackles  the  drivers  of  our  debt  and  averts  the  fiscal  crisis  ahead.  This  year,  the  nation’s  publicly  held  debt  is  projected  to  reach  73  percent  of  the  economy  –  a  dangerously  high  level  that,  according  to  leading  economists,  puts  the  nation  at  risk  of  a  panicked  run  on  its  finances.  This  budget  tackles  this  crisis  head-­‐on  by  cutting  debt  as  a  share  of  the  economy  by  roughly  15  percent  over  the  next  decade.  The  CBO  estimates  that  this  budget  will  produce  annual  surpluses  by  2040  and  begin  paying  down  the  national  debt  after  that.By  contrast,  the  President’s  budget  pushes  debt  as  a  share  of  the  economy  even  higher.  In  his  budget’s  own  words,  it  allows  the  government’s  fiscal  position  to  “gradually  deteriorate”  after  2022.  This  budget  cuts  debt  by  tens  of  trillions  over  time  relative  to  the  President’s  path  to  decline.    House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       84
    • Keeping  the  American  PromiseIn  the  end,  the  debate  about  rising  U.S.  debt  is  not  just  about  dollars  and  cents,  but  also  about  America’s  status  as  a  world  power  and  its  freedom  to  act  in  its  own  best  interests.  If  the  nation  stays  on  its  current  path,  the  United  States  will  be  unable  to  afford  its  role  as  an  economic  and  military  superpower.  Other  nations  with  very  different  interests  will  rush  in  to  fill  that  role.  Today’s  children  will  grow  up  in  a  world  defined  by  different  values,  and  their  futures  will  be  defined  by  fewer  opportunities  than  their  parents  had.  Last  year  in  Foreign  Affairs  magazine,  financial  historian  Niall  Ferguson  surveyed  some  of  the  great  empire  declines  throughout  history  and  observed  that  “most  imperial  falls  are  associated  with  fiscal  crises.  All  the…  cases  were  marked  by  sharp  imbalances  between  revenues  and  expenditures,  as  well  as  difficulties  with  financing  public  debt.  Alarm  bells  should  be  ringing  loudly…  [for]  the  United  States.”88  America  must  not  abandon  its  leadership  role  in  the  world.  For  this  and  many  other  reasons,  Congress  must  act  now  to  change  the  nation’s  fiscal  course.  The  Republican  House  majority  was  sent  here  by  the  American  people  to  get  spending  under  control  and  confront  these  great  challenges  today  to  allow  this  generation  to  pass  an  even  greater  nation  along  to  the  next  generation.  Congress  can  choose  to  let  this  nation  go  the  way  of  fallen  empires,  or  it  can  begin  –  today  –  the  work  of  restoring  the  vitality  and  greatness  of  America.  88  Niall  Ferguson,  “Complexity  and  Collapse:  Empires  on  the  Edge  of  Chaos.”  Foreign  Affairs,  March/  April  2010.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       85
    • House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       86
    • APPENDIX  I:  SUMMARY  TABLES APPENDIX I SUMMARY TABLESHouse  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       87
    • S-­‐1      FY2013  Path  to  Prosperity   (NOMINAL  DOLLARS  IN  BILLIONS) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013-­‐2022 House  Budget   Outlays 3,624 3,530 3,476 3,536 3,690 3,824 3,977 4,199 4,409 4,605 4,888 40,135House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012   Revenue 2,444 2,734 2,980 3,232 3,449 3,642 3,811 3,986 4,184 4,388 4,601 37,008 Deficit 1,180 797 496 304 241 182 166 213 225 217 287 3,127   Debt  Held  by  Public 11,355 12,261 12,861 13,260 13,597 13,874 14,126 14,417 14,717 15,005 15,364 As  a  Share  of  GDP 10-­‐Year  Average Outlays 23.4% 22.2% 21.0% 20.1% 19.7% 19.4% 19.3% 19.4% 19.5% 19.5% 19.8% 20.0% Revenue 15.8% 17.2% 18.0% 18.3% 18.4% 18.5% 18.4% 18.4% 18.5% 18.6% 18.7% 18.3% Deficit 7.6% 5.0% 3.0% 1.7% 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% Debt  Held  by  Public 73.2% 77.0% 77.6% 75.3% 72.7% 70.4% 68.4% 66.7% 65.1% 63.5% 62.3% 69.9%  88
    • S-­‐2  FY2013  Path  to  Prosperity  vs.  Presidents  Budget (NOMINAL  DOLLARS  IN  BILLIONS) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013-­‐2022 Outlays -­‐24 -­‐187 -­‐330 -­‐416 -­‐496 -­‐532 -­‐575 -­‐630 -­‐674 -­‐734 -­‐725 -­‐5,299 Revenue 49 -­‐7 -­‐124 -­‐181 -­‐208 -­‐226 -­‐231 -­‐241 -­‐261 -­‐273 -­‐284 -­‐2,036House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012   Deficit -­‐73 -­‐180 -­‐206 -­‐235 -­‐288 -­‐307 -­‐344 -­‐388 -­‐414 -­‐461 -­‐441 -­‐3,263   Debt  Held  by  Public -­‐71 -­‐256 -­‐470 -­‐721 -­‐1,021 -­‐1,341 -­‐1,699 -­‐2,102 -­‐2,528 -­‐3,002 -­‐3,455  89
    • S-­‐3 FY2013  Path  to  Prosperity  by  Major  Category   (NOMINAL  DOLLARS  IN  BILLIONS) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013-­‐2022Social  Security 813 856 900 948 1,002 1,061 1,125 1,194 1,265 1,340 10,504Medicare  (Net) 503 525 547 593 606 625 683 727 774 855 6,439 House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012  Medicaid  &  Other  Health 307 304 311 317 334 345 355 370 382 402 3,428Presidents  Health  Care  Law 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  Other  Mandatory 451 379 373 366 352 349 362 375 390 422 3,821Discretionary  (Base) 1,170 1,107 1,066 1,070 1,076 1,090 1,118 1,146 1,167 1,212 11,222Global  War  on  Terrorism 51 54 48 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 462Net  Interest 234 251 291 350 409 463 512 554 583 614 4,261Total  Outlays 3,530 3,476 3,536 3,690 3,824 3,977 4,199 4,409 4,605 4,888 40,135   90
    • S-­‐4 FY2013  Path  to  Prosperity  vs.  Presidents  Budget   (NOMINAL  DOLLARS  IN  BILLIONS) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013-­‐2022 Social  Security 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 8 Medicare  (Net) -­‐15 -­‐20 -­‐15 -­‐16 -­‐18 -­‐20 -­‐24 -­‐27 -­‐28 -­‐21 -­‐205House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012   Medicaid  &  Other  Health -­‐6 -­‐38 -­‐53 -­‐61 -­‐62 -­‐71 -­‐91 -­‐111 -­‐130 -­‐147 -­‐770   Presidents  Health  Care  Law -­‐5 -­‐65 -­‐116 -­‐158 -­‐174 -­‐187 -­‐199 -­‐207 -­‐224 -­‐237 -­‐1,572 Other  Mandatory -­‐121 -­‐181 -­‐181 -­‐198 -­‐207 -­‐212 -­‐212 -­‐208 -­‐208 -­‐166 -­‐1,895 Discretionary  (base) -­‐38 -­‐22 -­‐41 -­‐43 -­‐38 -­‐37 -­‐36 -­‐34 -­‐37 -­‐26 -­‐352 Global  War  on  Terrorism 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net  Interest -­‐3 -­‐4 -­‐9 -­‐20 -­‐33 -­‐50 -­‐69 -­‐88 -­‐109 -­‐129 -­‐514 Total  Outlays -­‐187 -­‐330 -­‐416 -­‐496 -­‐532 -­‐575 -­‐630 -­‐674 -­‐734 -­‐725 -­‐5,299  91
    • S-­‐5 FY2013  Path  to  Prosperity  vs.  Current  Path   (CBO  Long-­‐Term  Analysis  as  a  %  of  GDP) Projected Actual   2011 2023 2030 2040 2050 CBO  Alternative  Fiscal  Scenario  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012   Total  Revenues 15.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 Total  Spending 24 25.25 29 34 39.25          Deficits  (-­‐)  or  Surplus -­‐8.75 -­‐6.75 -­‐10.5 -­‐15.5 -­‐21 Debt  Held  by  Public 68 96 128 194 * FY2013  Path  to  Prosperity Total  Revenues 15.5 18.75 19 19 19 Total  Spending 24 20.25 20.25 18.75 16        Deficits  (-­‐)  or  Surplus -­‐8.75 -­‐1.25 -­‐1.25 0.25 3 Debt  Held  by  Public 68 61 53 38 10 Note:   *  =  greater  than  200  percent  of  gross  domes6c  product  92
    • APPENDIX II REPRIORITIZING SEQUESTER SAVINGS KEY  POINTS After  the  President  initially  asked  for  a  blank  check  to  keep  borrowing,  Congress   forged  a  bipartisan  agreement  –  The  Budget  Control  Act  –  to  ensure  that  any  debt-­‐limit   increase  was  accompanied  by  a  greater  amount  of  spending  reduction.   The  Budget  Control  Act  called  for  deficit  reduction  in  three  stages  –  pre-­‐sequester   discretionary  spending  caps,  a  Joint  Select  Committee  on  Deficit  Reduction  (JSCDR),   and  an  automatic  spending  reduction  enforced  by  sequester  in  the  event  that  the   JSCDR  failed.   In  the  wake  of  the  JSCDR’s  failure  to  achieve  its  deficit-­‐reduction  goals,  discretionary   spending  levels  are  scheduled  to  be  reduced  by  $98  billion  effective  January  2,  2013.     There  is  bipartisan  agreement  on  the  devastation  to  America’s  national  security  that   would  result  if  these  deep  cuts  go  into  effect,  and  both  parties  have  expressed  a  desire   to  avoid  this  outcome  by  reprioritizing  the  savings. Despite  bipartisan  agreement  on  the  challenge,  only  House  Republicans  –  through  this   budget  –  have  proposed  a  solution  to  address  it. This  budget  reprioritizes  sequester  savings  to  focus  on  the  problem,  which  is   government  spending,  and  to  protect  national  security  from  deep  and  indiscriminate   cuts. It  achieves  these  goals  by  giving  six  House  committees  reconciliation  instructions  to   produce  legislation  by  a  date  certain  that  achieves  the  savings  called  for  under  the  Budget   Control  Act  without  the  haphazard  cuts  that  the  sequester  entails.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       94
    • APPENDIX  II Reprioritizing  Sequester  SavingsLast  year,  as  the  nation  approached  the  statutory  limit  on  how  much  it  could  legally  borrow,  the  Obama  administration  asked  Congress  for  a  “clean  piece  of  legislation"  to  increase  the  government’s  legal  borrowing  authority  without  any  spending  cuts  to  match. 89  House  Republicans  refused  to  give  the  President  the  blank  check  he  requested.  Instead,  Speaker  of  the  House  John  Boehner  insisted  that  any  increase  in  the  debt  ceiling  be  accompanied  by  a  greater  amount  of  spending  reduction.  Speaker  Boehner  made  clear  on  May  9,  2011  that,  “Without  significant  spending  cuts  and  reforms  to  reduce  our  debt,  there  will  be  no  debt  limit  increase.  And  the  cuts  should  be  greater  than  the  accompanying  increase  in  debt  authority  the  President  is  given.”90Once  it  became  clear  that  Congress  would  not  rubber-­‐stamp  his  requested  increase  in  the  debt  ceiling,  President  Obama  announced  that  he  would  not  accept  a  debt-­‐ceiling  deal  that  did  not  include  large  tax  increases  on  American  families  and  businesses. 91  House  Republicans  succeeded  in  protecting  hardworking  taxpayers  by  preventing  the  President  from  securing  a  bill  containing  tax  hikes.  Instead,  a  bipartisan  agreement  was  forged  to  achieve  savings  from  limits  on  discretionary  spending  and  to  set  in  motion  a  framework  to  achieve  additional  savings.  The  Budget  Control  Act  of  2011  (BCA)  paired  a  $2.1  trillion  increase  in  the  public  debt  limit  with  equivalent  deficit  reduction  over  the  ensuing  ten  years.  The  BCA  called  for  deficit  reduction  in  three  phases: 1. First,  it  established  caps  on  discretionary  spending,  achieving  approximately  $917  billion  in  savings  over  ten   years. 2. Second,  it  established  and  called  upon  a  Joint  Select  Committee  on  Deficit  Reduction  (JSCDR)  to  produce   legislation  with  at  least  an  additional  $1.2  trillion  in  deficit  reduction. 3. Third,  it  established  an  automatic  sequestration  process  to  force  spending  reductions  in  the  event  the  JSCDR   did  not  produce  a  deficit-­‐reduction  bill  or  Congress  refused  to  pass  it.  This  “sequester”  would  result  in   immediate  discretionary  spending  reductions  effective  January  2,  2013.Understanding  each  component  of  the  BCA  is  critical  to  understanding  the  fiscal  impact  of  the  law  as  a  whole.  The  BCA’s  pre-­‐sequester  spending  caps  reduced  discretionary  spending  for  FY2013  to  a  maximum  of  $1.047  trillion.  Some,  including  Senate  Majority  Leader  Harry  Reid,  are  still  insisting  that  House  Republicans  are  obligated  to  pass  FY2013  spending  bills  at  these  levels.92  But  Congress  is  no  longer  operating  in  a  pre-­‐sequester  world.  Last  November,  the  JSCDR  announced  that  it  could  not  reach  agreement  on  a  deficit-­‐reduction  bill  by  the  statutorily  required  deadline,  thus  triggering  the  sequester.  Congress  is  now  operating  in  a  post-­‐sequester  world  –  one  in  which  discretionary  spending  for  FY2013  is  capped  at  $949  billion,  and  defense  spending  will  be  cut  by  $55  billion,  or  10  percent,  in  January  2013  unless  Congress  acts  to  replace  this  sequester  by  reprioritizing  the  savings.  89  Brian  Patrick,  “Debt  Limit  Tick  Tock,”  Blog  Update,  Office  of  Majority  Leader  Eric  Cantor,  August  1,  2011.  http://majorityleader.gov/blog/2011/08/debt-­‐limit-­‐tick-­‐tock.html  90  Remarks  by  House  Speaker  John  Boehner.  Economic  Club  of  New  York.  May  9,  2011.  http://www.speaker.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=240370  91  Patrick,  “Debt  Limit  Tick  Tock.”92  Naftali  Bendavid,  “Fight  Breaks  Out  Over  2013  Budget  Cuts,”  Wall  Street  Journal,  March  14,  2012.  http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/03/14/fight-­‐breaks-­‐out-­‐over-­‐2013-­‐budget-­‐cuts/  House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       95
    • Table  1 Discretionary  Spending  Caps:  Post-­‐Sequester   (Budget  Authority  in  Billions)(Budget  Authority  in  Billions) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013-­‐22 Budget  Control  Act  /  Pre  Sequester 1,047 1,066 1,086 1,107 1,131 1,156 1,182 1,208 1,234 1,234 11,451 Defense 546 556 566 577 590 603 616 630 644 644 5,972 Non-­‐Defense 501 510 520 530 541 553 566 578 590 590 5,479 Sequester  (discretionary  only) -­‐98 -­‐93 -­‐92 -­‐91 -­‐91 -­‐90 -­‐89 -­‐88 -­‐88 -­‐90 -­‐910 Defense -­‐55 -­‐55 -­‐55 -­‐55 -­‐55 -­‐55 -­‐55 -­‐55 -­‐55 -­‐56 -­‐548 Non-­‐Defense -­‐43 -­‐38 -­‐38 -­‐37 -­‐36 -­‐36 -­‐35 -­‐33 -­‐33 -­‐34 -­‐362 Budget  Control  Act  /  Post-­‐Sequester 949 973 994 1,016 1,040 1,066 1,093 1,120 1,146 1,144 10,541 Defense 491 501 511 522 535 548 561 575 589 588 5,424 Non-­‐Defense 458 472 482 493 505 517 531 545 557 556 5,117 Source:  CBO  March  2012  Baseline These  cuts  would  be  devastating  to  America’s  defense  capabilities.  Leaders  of  both  parties  agree  that  sequester  savings   should  be  reprioritized.  On  August  4,  2011,  then-­‐director  of  the  Office  of  Management  and  Budget  (now  White  House   Chief  of  Staff)  Jack  Lew  wrote  that  the  sequester  was  not  intended  to  be  implemented:  “Make  no  mistake:  the   sequester  is  not  meant  to  be  policy.  Rather,  it  is  meant  to  be  an  unpalatable  option  that  all  parties  want  to  avoid.”93       The  Joint  Select  Committee  on  Deficit  Reduction While  both  parties  have  expressed  their  desire  to  avoid  the  consequences  of  the  sequester,  there  is  profound   disagreement  over  how.  This  disagreement  was  evident  in  the  JSCDR’s  failure  to  produce  a  deficit-­‐reduction  bill  last   year.   Despite  the  good-­‐faith  effort  on  the  part  of  committee  Republicans  to  avoid  the  sequester  (and,  by  extension,  to  avoid   its  disproportionate  impact  on  defense),  the  negotiations  exposed  a  fundamental  lack  of  seriousness  by  some  in   Washington  regarding  the  need  to  control  government  spending  and  address  the  structural  drivers  of  the  debt.  As   JSCDR  Co-­‐Chairman  Jeb  Hensarling  made  clear,  Democrats  on  the  committee  “were  unwilling  to  agree  to  anything  less   than  $1  trillion  in  tax  hikes  –  and  unwilling  to  offer  any  structural  reforms  to  put  our  health  care  entitlements  on  a   permanently  sustainable  basis.”94   Committee  Democrats  refused  to  address  the  problem,  so  the  problem  remains.  Therefore,  the  immediate  question  of   how  to  reprioritize  sequester  savings  –  and  the  larger  challenge  of  averting  a  debt-­‐fueled  economic  crisis  –  have   become  central  to  this  year’s  budget  debate  during  this  year’s  budget  season.   The  President’s  FY2013  Budget The  President’s  FY2013  budget  calls  on  Congress  to  replace  the  sequester,  but  it  does  not  make  a  specific  proposal  to   turn  the  sequester  off.  It  assumes  that  the  sequester  does  not  occur,  but  it  does  not  lay  out  a  specific  path  forward  to   avoid  its  consequences.  The  President’s  budget  includes  tax  increases  and  spending  cuts  (including  a  $487  billion   93  Jack  Lew,  “Security  Spending  in  the  Deficit  Agreement,”  August  4,  2011.   http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/08/04/security-­‐spending-­‐deficit-­‐agreement  (accessed  March  19,  2012). 94  Hensarling,  Jeb.  “Why  the  Super  Committee  Failed,”  Wall  Street  Journal,  November  22,  2011.  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204531404577052240098105190.html  (accessed  March  19,  2012).   House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       96
    • reduction  in  defense  spending),  which  it  claims  are  enough  to  offset  the  sequester  –  but  it  includes  a  net  spending  increase  that  consumes  nearly  all  of  its  claimed  deficit  reduction.  This  approach  is  deeply  flawed,  for  three  reasons.  First,  it  imposes  a  net  tax  increase  on  American  families  and  businesses  of  $1.9  trillion.  Washington’s  fiscal  imbalance  is  overwhelmingly  driven  by  runaway  spending,  not  insufficient  tax  revenue,  and  reducing  the  deficit  by  taking  more  from  hardworking  Americans  would  simply  slow  the  economy,  reduce  job  opportunities,  and  ultimately  prove  counterproductive  as  a  deficit-­‐reduction  strategy.  Second,  despite  the  large  tax  increase,  the  President’s  budget  also  contains  a  net  spending  increase  of  $1.5  trillion,  for  a  total  of  only  $400  billion  in  deficit  reduction.  The  rest  of  the  President’s  deficit-­‐reduction  claims  are  based  on  discredited  budget  gimmicks,  including  almost  $1  trillion  in  “savings”  that  come  from  projecting  current  wartime  spending  in  Iraq  and  Afghanistan  out  for  the  next  ten  years,  then  proposing  not  to  spend  that  money,  even  though  it  was  never  requested  and  never  going  to  be  spent.  And  third,  much  of  the  President’s  actual  spending  reduction  comes  from  cutting  too  deeply  into  the  Defense  Department.  Although  the  President’s  budget  does  not  cut  defense  as  deeply  as  the  sequester  would,  these  cuts  would  still  jeopardize  the  capability  of  the  U.S.  military.  The  Senate’s  Lack  of  a  BudgetIt  has  been  three  years  since  the  Senate  passed  a  budget,  and  the  legal  deadline  for  passing  a  congressional  budget  resolution  this  year  is  fast  approaching.  Yet  there  has  been  no  indication  that  Senator  Reid  plans  to  put  forward  an  alternative  plan  for  prioritizing  spending,  much  less  for  averting  the  sequester.  Instead,  he  continues  to  insist  that  Congress  is  still  operating  in  a  pre-­‐sequester  world,  even  though  the  President’s  own  budget  admits  that  “the  sequester  was  triggered  and  will  take  effect  in  January  2013  if  no  action  is  taken.”95  Senator  Reid’s  approach  has  been  the  very  definition  of  inaction.  There  is  a  better  way  forward.  The  Path  to  Prosperity  Approach:  Reprioritize  Savings  Through  ReconciliationThis  budget  reprioritizes  sequester  savings  to  focus  on  the  problem,  which  is  government  spending,  and  to  protect  national  security  from  deep  and  indiscriminate  cuts.  It  achieves  these  goals  by  giving  six  House  committees  reconciliation  instructions  to  produce  actual  legislation  that  achieves  the  sequester  savings  without  the  haphazard  cuts  that  the  sequester  entails.  How  Reconciliation  WorksThe  1974  Budget  Act  provides  Congress  with  a  special  procedure  to  give  expedited  consideration  to  bills  enacting  the  spending,  revenue,  and  debt  policies  contained  in  the  budget  resolution.  To  trigger  these  expedited  procedures,  the  budget  resolution  must  include  reconciliation  instructions  calling  on  specific  committees  to  achieve  specified  amounts  of  savings  in  programs  within  their  jurisdictions.  The  committees  choose  which  programs  to  address  and  which  policies  to  adopt.  Reconciliation  in  the  FY2013  Budget  ResolutionThis  budget  gives  reconciliation  instructions  to  six  committees  –  Agriculture,  Energy  and  Commerce,  Financial  Services,  Judiciary,  Oversight  and  Government  Reform,  and  Ways  and  Means  –  that  in  aggregate  would  produce  at  least  $18  billion  of  deficit  reduction  in  the  first  year,  $116  billion  over  the  first  five  years,  and  $261  billion  over  the  first  ten  years.  95  “Fiscal  Year  2013  Budget  of  the  U.S.  Government,”  Office  of  Management  and  Budget,  February  2012.  http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2013/assets/budget.pdf      House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       97
    • Table  2   Replacing  the  Sequester   (Millions  of  $  of  Deficit  Impact) 2012-­‐13 2012-­‐17 2012-­‐22Sequester  of  $78,480  million  of  Discre6onary  Budget  Authority -­‐45,410 -­‐77,799 -­‐77,799CommiJee  on  Agriculture -­‐8,200 -­‐19,700 -­‐33,200CommiJee  on  Energy  &  Commerce -­‐3,750 -­‐28,430 -­‐96,760CommiJee  on  Financial  Services -­‐3,000 -­‐16,700 -­‐29,800CommiJee  on  the  Judiciary -­‐100 -­‐11,200 -­‐39,700CommiJee  on  Oversight  &  Government  Reform -­‐2,200 -­‐30,100 -­‐78,900CommiJee  on  Ways  &  Means -­‐1,200 -­‐23,000 -­‐53,000Gross  Reconcilia6on  Savings -­‐18,450 -­‐129,130 -­‐331,360 Remove  overlapping  reconcilia6on  instruc6ons -­‐100 -­‐12,800 -­‐69,900Net  Total  ReconciliaEon  Savings -­‐18,350 -­‐116,330 -­‐261,460ReconciliaEon  Savings  as  a  Percentage  of  Replaced  Sequester 40% 150% 336%Ultimately,  the  committees  will  be  responsible  for  determining  how  to  meet  their  reconciliation  instructions.  But  savings  could  be  achieved  in  the  areas  of  making  pensions  for  federal  workers  more  like  those  for  workers  in  the  private  sector,  repealing  recent  expansions  of  the  federal  role  in  financial  services,  saving  money  in  health  care,  means-­‐testing  entitlements,  and  reforming  the  medical  liability  system.  This  budget  provides  a  clear  solution  that  would  be  implemented  quickly  to  replace  the  sequester.  It  does  so  by  using  an  expedited  procedure  to  reduce  lower-­‐priority  spending.  This  solution  would  cut  through  the  gridlock  in  Washington  to  start  eliminating  excessive  autopilot  spending  immediately.  It  would  protect  taxpayers,  and  it  would  shield  the  U.S.  military  from  a  crippling,  10  percent  across-­‐the-­‐board  reduction  in  its  funding.  Unfortunately,  the  House  cannot  unilaterally  implement  this  solution  –  and  the  Senate  Democratic  leadership’s  only  plan  has  been  to  oppose  solutions  put  forward  in  the  House.  U.S.  troops  and  their  families  should  not  have  to  suffer  because  the  Democratic  Party’s  leaders  refuse  to  lead.  House  Republicans  will  continue  to  show  a  way  forward  by  directly  addressing  the  nation’s  most  urgent  fiscal  and  economic  challenges.  It  is  not  too  late  for  Americans  to  choose  a  better  path.House  Budget  Committee  |  March  20,  2012       98