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Hoeffel Poll: March 2010


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Hoeffel Poll: March 2010

  1. 1.                                                   Memorandum   Celinda Lake To:   Interested  parties   President From:   Celinda  Lake  and  Daniel  Gotoff,  Lake  Research  Partners     Alysia Snell Partner Subject:     New  Findings  from  Gubernatorial  Survey  in  Southeast  Pennsylvania   Date:   March  11,  2010   Michael Perry Partner A   recent   survey   of   likely   General   Election   voters   in   Southeastern   Pennsylvania1   David Mermin reveals  Joe  Hoeffel  is  the  strongest  Democrat  in  the  race  and  the  candidate  best   Partner positioned  to  beat  Tom  Corbett  in  November.   Robert G. Meadow, Ph.D.  Hoeffel   is   the   only   Democratic   candidate   for   Governor   with   a   solid   base   of   Partner support  in  the  region,  the  largest  in  the  state  and  the  one  which  any  Democrat   Daniel R. Gotoff must  win  decisively  in  order  to  prevail  statewide2.       Partner  Hoeffel   starts   out   with   a   lead   over   Tom   Corbett   in   Southeastern   Pennsylvania,   Joshua E. Ulibarri expands  that  lead  once  voters  learn  more  about  both  candidates,  and  retains   Partner that  lead  even  after  he  is  attacked.     Rick A. Johnson  Perhaps  most  important,  the  data  show  that  these  advantages  are  unique  to   Managing Director Hoeffel,  as  Dan  Onorato  is  in  the  exact  opposite  position.  Onorato  starts  out   well   behind   Corbett;   continues   to   trail   Corbett   even   after   a   positive   Tresa Undem Vice President introduction;  and  loses  substantial  ground  after  voters  hear  criticisms  of  him.       Robert X. Hillman   Chief Financial Officer   +5 -12                 In  an  initial  trial  heat,  Hoeffel  attracts  43%  of  the  vote  to  just  38%  for  Corbett,  with   19%  of  voters  undecided.    In  a  head-­‐to-­‐head  between  Corbett  and  Onorato,  on  the   other  hand,  Corbett  leads  by  a  double  digit  margin  (43%  Corbett  to  31%  Onorato),   and  26%  are  undecided.     1 Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey of 400 likely General Election voters in Southeastern Pennsylvania (including Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia Counties) The survey was conducted by telephone, using professional interviewers, between March 1 and 3rd, 2010. The overall margin of error for this survey is +/-4.9 percentage points. 2 The region accounts for roughly 34% of the vote in the General Election and 40% in the Democratic Primary. In the 2000 General, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, Ron Klink, won 53% of Southeast PA, 51% of Western PA, and lost that race. In 2002 General, the Democratic nominee for Governor, Ed Rendell, won 71% of Southeast PA, 50% of Western PA, and won that race. 1726 M Street, NW | Suite 1100 | Washington, DC 20036 | T 202.776.9066 | F 202.776.9074 1 WASHINGTON, DC | BERKELEY, CA | NEW YORK, NY | LOS ANGELES, CA | RICHMOND, VA
  2. 2. Page 2 After  voters  in  the  region  learn  more  about  Corbett  and  Hoeffel,  Hoeffel  expands  his  lead,  even  breaking   the   fifty   percent   threshold   (51%   Hoeffel   to   43%   Corbett).     In   contrast,   even   simulating   a   strong   introduction   for   Onorato   in   the   Philadelphia   market—a   feat   that   would   consume   a   sizeable   share   of   his   resources   in   this   expensive   market—the   Allegheny   County   Executive   continues   to   trail   Corbett   (47%   Corbett   to   42%   Onorato).   The   text   of   the   messages   read   on   behalf   of   the   candidates   is   included   on   the   final  page  of  this  memo.           +8 -5                 And  even  after  Hoeffel  undergoes  attack,  he  maintains  his  strength  of  support  over  Corbett  (50%  Hoeffel   to   41%   Corbett).   Under   the   same   simulation,   however,   Onorato   drops   back   down   to   an   8-­‐point   deficit,   trailing  Corbett,  45%  Corbett  to  37%  Onorato.                 +9 -8                 In  addition,  Onorato  faces  the  additional  barrier  of  his  wholly  unpopular  stance  on  choice  and  guns.  Voters   in   Southeast   Pennsylvania,   including   independents,   are   solidly   in   favor   of   a   candidate   who   supports   a   woman's  right  to  choose  (75%)  over  one  who  is  anti-­‐choice  (19%),  and  for  a  candidate  who  supports  gun   safety  measures  (59%)  over  one  who  supports  the  right  to  bear  arms  (35%).    There  is  very  little  quarter  for   a  conservative  (of  any  partisan  stripe)  in  Southeast  Pennsylvania.                    
  3. 3. Page 3       Would you be more likely to support a candidate who…. a…                           These   challenges   aside,   the   dynamics   for   Onorato   in   Southeastern   Pennsylvania   are   already   quite   difficult.     Onorato   is   unknown   in   Southeast   Pennsylvania   (76%   have   never   heard   of   or   have   no   opinion   of   him),   his   image   is   divided  among  those  who  have  an  opinion  of  him  (13%  favorable;  11%  unfavorable).  Not  only  does  he  start  out   losing  to  Corbett  by  a  double  digit  margin,  but  even  after  a  solid  introduction  he  stays  well  behind  the  Republican.  
  4. 4. Page 4   INFORMED  TRIAL  HEAT:  POST-­‐POSITIVE  MESSAGES   Now,  I  would  like  to  read  you  descriptions  of  the  candidates  for  Governor:  [ROTATE]   _Attorney   General   Tom   Corbett   is   a   lifelong   Pennsylvanian,   veteran   of   the   National   Guard,   and   father   of   two   who   married  his  college  sweetheart.    He’s  fighting  to  bring  a  culture  of  change  to  Harrisburg.    As  A.G.,  he  served  as  the   people’s  watchdog,  creating  programs  that  protected  seniors  from  fraud,  convicted  hundreds  of  Internet  predators   who  were  preying  on  children,  fought  government  corruption,  and  cracked  down  on  illegal  drugs  and  gangs  in  our   neighborhoods.   Tom   Corbett’s   pro-­‐business   record   as   Attorney   General   underscores   his   commitment   to   restoring   Pennsylvania’s   rightful   place   in   the   global   marketplace.   As   Governor,   his   top   priority   will   be   creating   good,   family-­‐ sustaining   jobs,   by   reducing   tax   burdens   and   regulations   that   drive   businesses   out   of   our   state.   And   most   important,   Corbett   will   lower   taxes,   cut   government   spending,   get   our   budget   under   control,   and   return   that   money   to   the   taxpayers.   _Joe   Hoeffel   is   a   husband,   father,   and   the   one   true   _The   son   of   a   mechanic   and   a   school   teacher,   and   the   progressive  in  this  race.  Joe  has  been  a  force  for  change   first  in  his  family  to  go  to  college,  Dan  Onorato  was  raised   at   every   level   of   government.   He   has   taken   on   special   on   the   importance   of   family   and   faith,   and   that   when   interests   to   pass   landmark   ethics   reforms.   He   has   been   times   are   tough,   everyone   pitches   in.   As   Allegheny   at   the   forefront   of   the   fight   for   good   jobs   with   good   County  Executive,  Dan  has  led  the  way,  cracking  down  on   wages,  and  against  sending  jobs  overseas.  He  has  led  the   waste   and   abuse,   cutting   taxes,   and   in   the   process   charge   for   a   healthcare   plan   that   puts   people   ahead   of   transforming   Western   Pennsylvania   into   a   hub   for   21st   insurance   profits   and   protects   a   woman’s   right   to   century   jobs.   He   took   on   members   of   his   own   party   to   choose.   He   is   a   leading   voice   for   investing   in   the   clean   reform   the   county’s   political   system.   Dan   is   running   for   energy   technologies   that   are   the   key   to   our   economic   Governor   because   the   culture   in   Harrisburg   needs   to   future.   Growing   up,   Joe’s   parents   instilled   in   him   the   change.  Pennsylvania's  families  are  tightening  their  belts   values   of   personal   integrity   and   social   responsibility.   during   these   tough   economic   times,   and   government   After   serving   in   the   Army   Reserves,   Joe   entered   public   should   do   the   same.   As   Governor,   Dan   will   create   the   service   and   has   built   a   record   of   strong   leadership   and   new   jobs   we   need,   drive   down   the   cost   of   health   care   fiscal   responsibility,   getting   results   for   middle   class   and   higher   education,   find   new   and   innovative   ways   to   Pennsylvanians.   Hoeffel   is   a   leader   who   will   take   bold   be   smarter   and   more   efficient,   and   bring   real   reform   to   action  to  put  people  back  to  work  and  turn  our  economy   government.   around.   Sometimes  over  the  course  of  a  survey  like  this  people  change  their  minds.  If  the  election  for  Governor  were  held   today,  and  the  candidates  were  [ROTATE]  _Tom  Corbett  and  _[Dan  Onorato/  Joe  Hoeffel],  for  whom  would  you   vote,  or  are  you  undecided?   Hoeffel:  51%   Onorato:  42%   Corbett:  43%   Corbett:  47%   Undecided:  6%   Undecided:  12%