D&B US Economic Health Tracker (Feb. 2014)
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D&B US Economic Health Tracker (Feb. 2014)

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This report highlights US economic performance via three key indices. The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through equally weighted payment patterns and ...

This report highlights US economic performance via three key indices. The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through equally weighted payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Business Health Index provides a year-over-year equally weighted average of D&B’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor.

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    D&B US Economic Health Tracker (Feb. 2014) D&B US Economic Health Tracker (Feb. 2014) Document Transcript

    • D&B U.S. Economic Health Tracker A multi-dimensional view of the U.S. Economy www.dnb.com/tracker February 2014 Small Business Health Index: Overall Small Business Health Index Payment Delinquency 120 16% 0.2 points 100 Credit Card Delinquency 4% 80 Credit Card Use 60 Dec '04 Dec '06 Dec '08 Dec '10 3% Jan' 14 Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics D&B’s Small Business Health Index has contracted modestly in the current month, although small businesses saw improvement in on-time credit card and bill payments. US Jobs Health: Overall U.S. Jobs Health Manufacturing Retail 220000 Real Estate Number of New Jobs 200000 Business Services 153,000 180000 Construction 160000 140000 Jul '13 Aug '13Sept '13 Oct '13 Nov' 13 Dec' 13 Jan' 14 Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics Trade, Transportation & Utilities D&B estimates 153,000 new jobs were added to U.S. payrolls in January 2014, with gains in retail and business services. The overall pace of employment growth is projected to continue improving modestly.
    • www.dnb.com/tracker February 2014 US Business Health Index: Overall U.S. Business Health Index 55 TOTAL INDEX VALUE 52.8 IMPROVEMENT 50 NO CHANGE 5.9% DETERIORATION 45 Feb' 12 Jan '13 How to read this indicator: A reading of 50% represents “no change.” A reading of more than 50% reflects improvement and a reading of less than 50% reflects deterioration. Viability 14.8% Delinquency 0.9% Total Loss 2.2% Jan' 14 Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics U.S. business health improved nearly 6 percent in January 2014, reaching its highest recorded level since the index began in December 2010. Businesses continued to improve their balance sheets and overall financial performance, extending a trend that accelerated in 2012. Perspectives The D&B U.S. Business Economic Tracker revealed more bright spots for U.S. businesses in January 2014. In spite of a slight decline in the Small Business Health Index, the U.S. small business sector continues to improve steadily. While companies were more timely in credit card and bill payments, many relied more heavily on credit cards, suggesting restricted access to traditional lending. Meanwhile, an estimated 153,000 new jobs were created. The retail and business services segments helped drive growth in U.S. payrolls for the month. Finally, overall U.S. business health strengthened in January, registering a 52.8-percent index value, the highest recorded level since the index began in December 2010. U.S. businesses continued to strengthen at the beginning of 2014, based on the weighted average of D&B’s Viability Rating, Delinquency Predictor, and Total Loss Predictor. Overall, the growing number of bright spots on the U.S. economic horizon signal an acceleration in the pace of growth in 2014. Methodology The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through equally weighted payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Business Health Index provides a year-over-year equally weighted average of D&B’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor. The cumulative diffusion index—which measures the breadth of change—ranges from zero (with all businesses recording high levels of risk) to 100% (with all businesses recording low levels of risk). Data available as of Jan. 31, 2014. To learn more, visit www.dnb.com/tracker About Dun & Bradstreet® (D&B) Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE:DNB) is the world’s leading source of commercial information and insight on businesses, enabling companies to Decide with Confidence® for 172 years. D&B’s global commercial database contains more than 230 million business records. The database is enhanced by D&B’s proprietary DUNSRight® Quality Process, which provides our customers with quality business information. This quality information is the foundation of our global solutions that customers rely on to make critical business decisions. © Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved. (DB-3716 2/14)