D&B US Economic Health Briefing (Feb. 2014)

1,072 views
971 views

Published on

Commemorating the launch of D&B's new US Economic Health Tracker, this deck was presented by D&B's Chief Data and Analytic Officer, Paul Ballew, on February 6, 2014. The new monthly report that looks at three leading macro indicators; small business health, total job growth and overall U.S. business health.

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,072
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
41
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
7
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

D&B US Economic Health Briefing (Feb. 2014)

  1. 1. Introducing A New Way To Assess U.S. Economic Activity Paul Ballew, Chief Data & Analytic Officer, D&B February 6, 2014 Follow us on Twitter #DnBEconomy #DnBEconomy
  2. 2. Introducing D&B’s Economic Health Tracker A multi-dimensional view of the economy
  3. 3. Small Business Health Index 3
  4. 4. The Small Business Health has been remarkably stable for the first time post recession Some signs of modest softening but the US is still positioned to grow above 2% 105 Overall Small Business Health Index: Past 3 years 100 10.0% Overall Small Business Health Index: YOY Changes 8.0% 95 90 85 6.0% 4.0% 80 75 70 2.0% 0.0% 2011 2012 2013 -2.0% Source: D&B Proprietary Data 4
  5. 5. The recovery process for small businesses remains uneven Industries which seemed to be lagging behind in the recovery process are gradually accelerating 25.0% Small Business Health Index by Vertical: YOY Changes 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Manufacturing Transportation 2011 2012 Personal Services 2013 Source: D&B Proprietary Data 5
  6. 6. …. And a few sectors that bounced back quickly have leveled off On the other hand, industries which were initially leading the recovery have slowed down in the past year 20.0% Small Business Health Index by Vertical: YOY Changes 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% Retail Real Estate 2011 Business Services 2012 Construction 2013 Source: D&B Proprietary Data 6
  7. 7. Credit growth has accelerated for small businesses Post recession, the small businesses have experienced more credit growth through the more conventional avenues, although credit card loans have also been on the upturn in the past two years $19,200 $18,800 Credit Card Current Balances ($M) $75,000 $1,600 Loans Current Balances $70,000 $1,500 $65,000 $18,400 $1,400 $60,000 $1,300 $55,000 $18,000 $1,200 $50,000 $45,000 $1,100 $40,000 $17,600 $1,000 $17,200 Commercial & Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks ($Bn, left) Small Business Loans, D&B Database ($Mn, right) 7
  8. 8. Overall credit usage and availability has improved Although still falling short of pre-recession levels, access to credit for US businesses is on an upturn Card Utilization Index 40.00% 30.00% Y/Y Percentage Chg. 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -20.00% -30.00% Q4 2005 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 -40.00% Source: D&B Proprietary Data 8
  9. 9. U.S. Jobs Health 9
  10. 10. U.S. Business Health Index 10
  11. 11. U.S. Business Health Index • • The overall US business health index improved in January for the fourth-consecutive month— reaching 52.8%. This was the highest level recorded since the inception of the index in December 2010. Overall 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 11
  12. 12. U.S. Business Health Index • • On a year-over-year basis the overall index increased 5.9 percentage points (pp.)—the strongest growth since June 2012. Viability (+14.8 pp.), Total Loss Predictor (+2.2 pp.) and the Delinquency (+0.9 pp.) components all increased on a 12-month basis. Overall Viab Delinq TLP 20.0% Strong growth in Viability helped to lift the overall indicator Y/Y Percent Chg. 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 12
  13. 13. Summary • The Small Business Health Index declined modestly in the current month and warrants tracking going forward. A number of factors including the weather may be influencing so D&B remains confident in our economic outlook • The recovery for small business remains uneven although there are signs that some lagging sectors are gaining momentum. One important driver of growth is credit availability and usage and there are improving signs on this front • Based on the Small Business Health Index, D&B expects economic growth in excess of 2.5% and improvement in nonfarm payroll employment • As 2014 begins, composite risk and balance sheets among U.S. businesses continue to improve. The overall index was once again above the “no change” threshold continuing its trend higher. January’s reading bodes well for the future of U.S. businesses health. 13
  14. 14. Join us every month on the Tuesday prior to the first Friday at 8:30 AM EST for the latest economic update 14 #DnBEconomy
  15. 15. Follow us on Twitter for up to the minute information and analysis For more information, visit www.dnb.com/tracker And follow the conversation on Twitter at @DnBEconomy 15

×