• Save
Mr Pujol IDATE Smartphones Mobile Internet
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Like this? Share it with your network

Share
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
674
On Slideshare
674
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0

Actions

Shares
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Will the device be king?The smartphones: a commodity in the Future of Mobile Internet? 17 November 2011 - Frédéric PUJOL f.pujol@idate.org
  • 2. Content► Introduction► Mobile connectivity & smartphones► LTE devices► LTE networks status & tariffing► LTE spectrum & strategies► Questions
  • 3. Introduction
  • 4. Mobile status: Europe vs. USA Mobile turnover +1% (2010/2009) +5,2% (2010/2009) -3% (2Q11/2Q10) +6% (2Q11/2Q10) Data revenues share (end-2010) 26.2% 33.2% 29-32% (BoA) 37% (BoA) Mobile CAPEX Almost flat +18% (2Q11/2Q10) LTE launch date/ pop. covered End 2009 (Sweden) End 2010 Limited launch except in VZW: 110 M pop (05/2011) Germany 66% pop mid-2012 Mobile ARPU (end-2010) $22.5 $50 (-0.2% y-to-y) Mobile penetration (end-2010) 128% 98.5% Fragmented markets 4 carriers have 93% of the subscribers Smartphone penetration (end-2010) Vodafone: 19% Verizon: 32% ► The USA are clearly leading LTE deployments with massive coverage and heavy investmentsSource: IDATE & BoA
  • 5. Mobile status: GDP and mobile revenues ► Economic slowdown effect on wireless revenues ► The 2008-2009 slowdown had a significant impact on wireless revenues in EuropeSource: BoA
  • 6. Mobile traffic increase Mobile traffic usage is getting close to DSL Mobile data consumption trends 7-15 GB  Average traffic consumption per user observed 2010 traffic figures in 2010(per broadband subscription - not at scale) Teliasonera Sweden: 14 - 15 GB 7 GB Yota Russia: 13 GB* 1-2 Clearwire : 7 GB GB SK Telecom : 7 GB 200 CSL HK : 6 GB MB 1 MB Monthly cap Monthly usage 1 mn of MP3 Firtst monthly for many 3G Monthly usage on DSL *One customer used 2 Terabytes of data in a single month (2010) cap for AT&T on Clearwire’s subscriptions network networks Source: IDATE from operators 6.6 MB per day 33 to 66 MB per day 233 MB per day 233 to 500 MB per dayMobile broadband traffic mimics the kind of traffic seen on fixed broadband networks► Mobile users are running similar applications as on fixed networks: IM, Skype voice call, social Networking, video streaming…  Facebook increased its mobile traffic consumption by 200% during the 1H2010 while Twitter grew by 310% in the meantime (Source: Allot)  Video represents 50% of the worlds mobile traffic in 2010► Moving from traditional voice in favor of data-centric, bandwidth-intensive applications
  • 7. Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020 Total mobile traffic► Total worldwide mobile traffic will reach more than 127 EB in 2020, representing an 33 fold increase compared with 2010 figure.► We anticipate that the total voice and data traffic will reach 45 EBytes in 2015 compared to less than 2 EBytes in 2009. The bulk of the traffic will be video traffic. Total mobile traffic (EB per year) 140.00 120.00 100.00 Yearly traffic in EB Europe 80.00 Americas Asia 60.00 Rest of the world World Network capacity units: 40.00 20.00 - 2010 2015 2020 Source: IDATE for UMTS ForumNote: mobile traffic on licensed spectrum only (Wi-Fi excluded)
  • 8. Mobile connectivity & smartphones
  • 9. Mobile Internet usage: already here, and geared for growth 2010: 21.2% mobile Internet penetration, 2015: 37.0% mobile Internet penetration, or 1.1 billion subscriptions worldwide or 2.67 billion subscriptions worldwide► Leading region: Asia Pacific ► North America to overtake Asia Pacific by ● 27.0% penetration rate, or 691M users 2015 ● largely thanks to Japan, who has close to ● North America will climb to 43.6% penetration 80% mobile Internet penetration ● Asia Pacific to grow to 39.1% penetration► North America: 26.0% penetration rate ► EU27 will remain behind these two regions,► EU27: 17.9% penetration rate but will enjoy healthy growth to 35.1% Mobile Internet penetration, 2008-2010 Mobile Internet penetration, 2011-2015 forecasts 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 France Germany Italy Spain UK World Europe France Germany Italy USA Japan South Korea Europe World Spain UK USA Japan South KoreaSource: IDATE Source: IDATE
  • 10. Mobile connectivity devices: not just about smartphones Connectivity devices provide the better value … and overall shipments will maintain a compared to smartphones… steady growth► ARPU for connectivity devices can be more ► By around 2013, embedded connectivity than double that of smartphones devices will out-ship external ones ● Particularly strong with business use ● Decreasing module prices, user friendliness Shipment and breakdown of mobile connectivity devices, 2011-2015 ● Also means they consume more traffic (thousands)► Tariffs for users are also more favourable ● Per GB price cheaper for connectivity devices ● Smartphone data tariffs are still unstable Price per GB comparison between devices, UK 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Smartpho ne iP ad Do ngles Netbo o ks/lapto ps Note: the tariff with the best per GB value is shown in this figure Source: IDATE Source: IDATE
  • 11. Smartphone shipment penetration forecast Advanced countries: US, EU5 and Japan Emerging countries: BRIC► USA: Currently leads, and will continue to lead ► Brazil: Roughly in line with worldwide smartphones shipment penetration penetration► EU5: Whilst behind the US, will show steady ► China: Whilst they have a massive population, growth higher than worldwide penetration smartphone penetration expected to remain► Japan: Starts as laggard, but expected to relatively low for now become one of the leaders in next few years ► Russia: Expected to show steady growth, a little ● Smartphone shipment penetration was lower than behind China that of the world up to 2010, but by end 2011, ► India: Expected to show the least and slowest expected to be one of the leaders growth of penetration% of smartphone shipments, 2010 - 2015 % of smartphone shipments, 2010 - 2015 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 World EU5 USA Japan World Brazil Russia India ChinaSource: IDATE Source: IDATE
  • 12. Review of LTE devices availability Dongles & mobile hot-spots Mobile handsets: early developments Samsung’s first LTE dongle Novatel MiFi 4510L mobile hotspot Early LTE handsets: Samsung Craft and Galaxy Indulge AT&T’s first smartphones HTC Thunderbolt, Verizon, first LTE Smartphone AT&T’s first mobile hotspot and dongle  Dongles and personal hot-spot devices prove to be popular  Voice supported on 3G networks Tablets Other connected devices ZyXEL LTE fixed router Sierra Wireless M2M LTE gateway Motorola Xoom tablet Samsung’s GalaxyTab 10.1  Tablets are an important part of the device offer  Routers for rural areas (Germany, Verizon)►30 Modules, 11 Tablets, 10 Notebooks, 2 PC Cards, 27 Smartphones, 70 Routers, 47 Dongles - Source: GSA 11/2011►700 MHz: 106, 800 MHz: 42, 1800 MHz: 41, 2600 MHz: 52, 800/1800/2600 MHz: 32, AWS: 35
  • 13. LTE networks status & tariffing
  • 14. LTE deployment roadmap Geographical mapping of early LTE commercial deployment  In September 2011, 30 operators had launched LTE service and at least 16 more are expected during the second half of the year Europe  Major deployment for Verizon Wireless: 110 M pop covered at end-2010 and 160 M at mid- 2011 (nationwide by 2013) Canada and USA  Limited coverage for European operators except Germany Asia Major operators LTE commercial deployment schedule 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013  LTE subscribers figures Sept. 2011 3GPP WCDMA Operators  Verizon Wireless: around 3 million TD- SCDMA  DoCoMo: 390,000 Xi (LTE) subscriptions, with a full-year target of 1.3 million 3GPP2 CDMA operatorsSource: IDATE
  • 15. Enablers of mobile traffic and tariffing trends ►Towards more differentiation (device type, speed…), more QoS managementSource: IDATE
  • 16. TeliaSonera (Sweden) - 2009 LTE tariffing Name and scope of rate plan Speed/ USB-modem Data Monthly tariff/► EUR 62 per month including the usage of 30 GB data per month ‘Surfzone’ (for contract volume rate with► Additional data volume costs € 8.7 per 2GB and € 12.9 for 5GB hotspot of 18 months) discount 1 speedMetroPCS (USA) - 2010 Mellan 4G (‘Intermediate 4G’) 5-10 Included 10 GB SEK 299 Mbit/s SEK 249► The $55 plan includes unlimited voice, texting and LTE data access <22 Mbit/s► LTE-capable Samsung Craft for $299 Stor 4G (‘Grand 4G’) – Promotion 10-20 Included 20 GB SEK 349 forA1 Telekom (Austria) - 2010 price Mbit/s 18 months2/ <22 Mbit/s SEK 299 for► Plans LTE commercial service in Vienna in the 2.6 GHz band 18 months3► 30 GB of data a month at speeds of up to 150 Mbps for €90 per month Total 4G – Promotion price 10-80 Included 30 GB SEK 349 for Mbit/s six months4Vodafone (Germany) - 2011 <22 Mbit/s SEK 249 for 6 months5► 7.2 Mbps downstream for €39.99 per month with a cap of 10 GB► For a downlink speed of 50 Mbps and 30 GB cap, the monthly cost is € 69.99 Plan Monthly fee Monthly data Overage fee Allowance 4G mobile broadband plans (for 4G USB modems) USD 50 5 GB USD 10 per 1 GB USD 80 10 GB USD 10 per 1 GB Mobile broadband connect and 3G mobile hotspots USD 20 2 GB USD 20 per 1 GB (for smartphones and feature phones) Mobile broadband plans (tablets, netbooks) USD 20 1 GB USD 20 per 1 GB USD 35 3 GB USD 10 per 1 GB USD 50 5 GB USD 10 per 1 GB USD 80 10 GB USD 10 per 1 GBSource: IDATE
  • 17. The LTE wholesale model Sharing agreement? Will sell LTE capacity Provides cells Sells LTE sites and capacity? helps building Sells Mobile theterrstrial LTE network WiMAX capacity  Many actors using new Will sell LTE spectrum (satellite L- capacity to MVNOs and distributors Sells LTE Band, S-band, 2.3 capacity GHz…)  Consolidation likely in the USA Plans to build a wholesale LTE network in the S-band (USA) Builds a wholesale LTE network in  Difficulties in Russia the 1800 MHz band (Poland)  Sharing and wholesale model can be combined Builds a wholesale LTE network in the 2.3 GHz band for rural areas Build a common GSM and LTE network (Sweden)Source: IDATE
  • 18. LTE subscribers forecasts 400,000► By the end of 2015, we 350,000 forecast that overall there will be more than 379 million LTE 300,000 subscribers (worldwide). 250,000► We forecast 13.8 million LTE 200,000 subscribers at the end of 2011 150,000 with the USA representing the bulk of this figure with 100,000 11.6 million subscribers. 50,000► At the end of 2015, Asia- - Pacific should represent 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 35.2% of the total, North Asia-Pacific 1,066 8,383 29,260 70,402 133,310 America 31.4% and Western Western Europe 1,103 4,292 14,946 44,607 85,246 Europe 22.5%. Central & Eastern Europe 68 1,547 3,600 11,592 21,879 North America 11,635 32,588 58,323 85,535 118,955 Latin America 247 1,027 3,402 11,128 Africa-Middle East 223 1,469 5,298 8,493 Total 13 872 47,280 108,624 220,836 379,012Source: IDATE (June 2011)
  • 19. LTE spectrum & strategies
  • 20. LTE spectrum Fragmentation is here Countries Existing frequency bands New frequency bands Main LTE frequency bands Europe 900 MHz 1800 MHz 800 MHz (790-862 MHz – Digital Dividend) 2.6 GHz ► Regional harmonisation likely to be the first step 2.1 GHz USA 850 MHz 700 MHz (698-806 MHz)  Americas: DD (700 MHz), AWS, 2.6 GHz 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS) 1900 MHz (PCS) 1.4-1.6 GHz (LightSquared) S-band (Dish)?  Europe: DD (800 MHz), 1800 MHz, 2.6 GHz South America 2.6 GHz 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS) 700 MHz (698-806 MHz) 1800 MHz 2.6 GHz  Asia Pac: 2.3 GHz, 2.6 GHz 1900 MHz (PCS) China 2.3 GHz ► In the USA, LightSquared will use specific bands (1.4-1.6 2.6 GHz Japan 850 MHz 700 MHz (698-806 MHz planned) GHz…) 1.7/1.9 GHz 2.1 GHz 1.5 GHz ► Roaming is not a priority today South Korea 1800 MHz 2100 MHz 800 MHz Rest of Asia-Pacific 1800 MHz 700 MHz (698-806 MHz planned) 2.3 GHz 2.6 GHz Legend: Currently used by LTE Likely use by LTE Other mobile frequency bands Spectrum price Premium spectrum (€ cents per MHz per pop) 600 518.2 500 ► EUR 70 cents per MHz per pop in Germany for 400 the DD: very close to the level reached in the USA. In Sweden it sold for EUR 31 cents, in 300 Spain for EUR 54 cents and in Italy for 85 cents. 200 ► 2.6 GHz spectrum much cheaper: in the EUR 0.1-10 cents range 100 84.2 70.3 71.4 29.9 20.3 49.6 50.6 10.7 54.5 31.1 ► France 2.6 GHz: € 11 cents 5.1 0 Australia 850 Canada France France Free France 2.1 France 2.1 Germany Germany Germany Spain 800 Sweden 800 USA 700 ► Italy 2.6 GHz: € 6 cents MHz 2004 AWS 2008 UMTS core 2009 GHz Orange GHz SFR 800 MHz T- UMTS core 2.1 GHz MHz 2011 MHz 2011 MHz 2008 band 2001 2010 2010 Mobile 2010 band 2010Source: IDATE
  • 21. LTE strategies Reduce costs Reduce costs Reduce costs Need for Need for Need for Competition additional Competition additional Competition additional capacity capacity capacity Provide Provide Provide higher data Increase ARPU rates Increase ARPU higher data rates Increase ARPU higher data rates IDATE has identified five Reduce costs Reduce costs Reduce costs key drivers as reasons for MNOs to migrate to LTE: Competition Need for additional capacity Competition Need for additional capacity Competition Need for additional capacity ►Reduce costs ►Need for additional capacity ►Increase ARPU Increase Provide higher data rates Increase Provide higher data rates Increase Provide higher data rates ►Provide higher data ARPU ARPU ARPU rates Reduce costs Reduce costs Reduce costs ►Competitive pressure Need for Need for Need for additional additional additional capacity capacity capacity Competition Competition Competition Provide Provide Provide Increase higher data Increase Increase higher data higher data ARPU rates ARPU ARPU rates rates 21Source: IDATE
  • 22. Questions Is the feature phone dead? What could be the features and functionalities of future smartphones? What price range for smartphones in 2012? How many operating systems will survive? What will be the economic burden of the associated application stores? Is there a real risk of operator disintermediation via Soft SIM card strategies?
  • 23. THANK YOU! 23