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Mr Pujol IDATE LTE What's Changing Mobile IP ? DigiWorld Summit 2011

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  • 1. NextGen Networks 2 - LTEWhat’s changing mobile IP? 16 November 2011 - Frédéric PUJOL f.pujol@idate.org
  • 2. Content► Introduction► Mobile connectivity & smartphones► LTE devices► LTE networks status & tariffing► LTE spectrum: valuation and fragmentation risks► Conclusions
  • 3. 3
  • 4. Introduction
  • 5. Mobile status: Europe vs. USA Mobile turnover +1% (2010/2009) +5,2% (2010/2009) -3% (2Q11/2Q10) +6% (2Q11/2Q10) Data revenues share (end-2010) 26.2% 33.2% 29-32% (BoA) 37% (BoA) Mobile CAPEX Almost flat +18% (2Q11/2Q10) LTE launch date/ pop. covered End 2009 (Sweden) End 2010 Limited launch except in VZW: 110 M pop (05/2011) Germany 66% pop mid-2012 Mobile ARPU (end-2010) $22.5 $50 (-0.2% y-to-y) Mobile penetration (end-2010) 128% 98.5% Fragmented markets 4 carriers have 93% of the subscribers Smartphone penetration (end-2010) Vodafone: 19% Verizon: 32% ► The USA are clearly leading LTE deployments with massive coverage and heavy investmentsSource: IDATE & BoA
  • 6. Mobile status: GDP and mobile revenues ► Economic slowdown effect on wireless revenues ► The 2008-2009 slowdown had a significant impact on wireless revenues in EuropeSource: BoA
  • 7. Mobile traffic increase Mobile traffic usage is getting close to DSL Mobile data consumption trends 7-15 GB  Average traffic consumption per user observed 2010 traffic figures in 2010(per broadband subscription - not at scale) Teliasonera Sweden: 14 - 15 GB 7 GB Yota Russia: 13 GB* 1-2 Clearwire : 7 GB GB SK Telecom : 7 GB 200 CSL HK : 6 GB MB 1 MB Monthly cap Monthly usage 1 mn of MP3 Firtst monthly for many 3G Monthly usage on DSL *One customer used 2 Terabytes of data in a single month (2010) cap for AT&T on Clearwire’s subscriptions network networks Source: IDATE from operators 6.6 MB per day 33 to 66 MB per day 233 MB per day 233 to 500 MB per dayMobile broadband traffic mimics the kind of traffic seen on fixed broadband networks► Mobile users are running similar applications as on fixed networks: IM, Skype voice call, social Networking, video streaming…  Facebook increased its mobile traffic consumption by 200% during the 1H2010 while Twitter grew by 310% in the meantime (Source: Allot)  Video represents 50% of the worlds mobile traffic in 2010► Moving from traditional voice in favor of data-centric, bandwidth-intensive applications
  • 8. Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020 Total mobile traffic► Total worldwide mobile traffic will reach more than 127 EB in 2020, representing an 33 fold increase compared with 2010 figure.► We anticipate that the total voice and data traffic will reach 45 EBytes in 2015 compared to less than 2 EBytes in 2009. The bulk of the traffic will be video traffic. Total mobile traffic (EB per year) 140.00 120.00 100.00 Yearly traffic in EB Europe 80.00 Americas Asia 60.00 Rest of the world World Network capacity units: 40.00 20.00 - 2010 2015 2020 Source: IDATE for UMTS ForumNote: mobile traffic on licensed spectrum only (Wi-Fi excluded)
  • 9. Mobile connectivity & smartphones
  • 10. Mobile Internet usage: already here, and geared for growth 2010: 21.2% mobile Internet penetration, 2015: 37.0% mobile Internet penetration, or 1.1 billion subscriptions worldwide or 2.67 billion subscriptions worldwide► Leading region: Asia Pacific ► North America to overtake Asia Pacific by ● 27.0% penetration rate, or 691M users 2015 ● largely thanks to Japan, who has close to ● North America will climb to 43.6% penetration 80% mobile Internet penetration ● Asia Pacific to grow to 39.1% penetration► North America: 26.0% penetration rate ► EU27 will remain behind these two regions,► EU27: 17.9% penetration rate but will enjoy healthy growth to 35.1% Mobile Internet penetration, 2008-2010 Mobile Internet penetration, 2011-2015 forecasts 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 France Germany Italy Spain UK World Europe France Germany Italy USA Japan South Korea Europe World Spain UK USA Japan South KoreaSource: IDATE Source: IDATE
  • 11. Mobile connectivity devices: not just about smartphones Connectivity devices provide the better value … and overall shipments will maintain a compared to smartphones… steady growth► ARPU for connectivity devices can be more ► By around 2013, embedded connectivity than double that of smartphones devices will out-ship external ones ● Particularly strong with business use ● Decreasing module prices, user friendliness Shipment and breakdown of mobile connectivity devices, 2011-2015 ● Also means they consume more traffic (thousands)► Tariffs for users are also more favourable ● Per GB price cheaper for connectivity devices ● Smartphone data tariffs are still unstable Price per GB comparison between devices, UK 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Smartpho ne iP ad Do ngles Netbo o ks/lapto ps Note: the tariff with the best per GB value is shown in this figure Source: IDATE Source: IDATE
  • 12. Smartphone shipment penetration forecast Advanced countries: US, EU5 and Japan Emerging countries: BRIC► USA: Currently leads, and will continue to lead ► Brazil: Roughly in line with worldwide smartphones shipment penetration penetration► EU5: Whilst behind the US, will show steady ► China: Whilst they have a massive population, growth higher than worldwide penetration smartphone penetration expected to remain► Japan: Starts as laggard, but expected to relatively low for now become one of the leaders in next few years ► Russia: Expected to show steady growth, a little ● Smartphone shipment penetration was lower than behind China that of the world up to 2010, but by end 2011, ► India: Expected to show the least and slowest expected to be one of the leaders growth of penetration% of smartphone shipments, 2010 - 2015 % of smartphone shipments, 2010 - 2015 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 World EU5 USA Japan World Brazil Russia India ChinaSource: IDATE Source: IDATE
  • 13. Smartphone shipment forecast The heavyweights: China, US, EU5 Remaining BRIC countries and Japan► 2011: US leads number of smartphones ► Compared to China, the other BRIC shipped, followed by the EU5 and then China countries have much smaller total► 2013: Whilst US continues to lead, China shipments catches up with EU5 ► Japan, despite its high smartphone► 2015: China to overtake the US to become penetration rate, remains low in terms of the nation to ship the most smartphones total shipment numbers due to the country► China, due to its massive population, will itself being much smaller. They are, ship the most smartphones despite their however, ahead than any of the EU5 nations lower penetration rates on an individual basis.Total number of smartphone shipments, 2011 - 2015 Total number of smartphone shipments, 2011 - 2015 120 000 120 000 100 000 100 000 80 000 80 000 60 000 60 000 40 000 40 000 20 000 20 000 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 China USA EU5 Japan Brazil Russia India Source: IDATE Source: IDATE
  • 14. LTE devices
  • 15. LTE devices: positioning and strategies of main players  LTE devices roadmap  Already close to 200 LTE devices available LTE: a game-changer in the mobile industry? ► For chipset manufacturers, it will be seen that, in order to be able to succeed, the increased capabilities of mobile devices increasingly require competencies in various areas not limited to baseband. In our judgement, this will see Qualcomm, NVIDIA and ST-Ericsson establishing themselves as Tier 1 players in this market ► For mobile device manufacturers, the challenges will be to have the best possible integration of 4G into existing devices, with, of course, a series of challenges: technical, cost, IPR (Intellectual Property Rights) and Time To Market. Each of the device manufacturers has so far adopted different strategies. Some, such as Apple, have adopted a cautious approach, waiting for the technology to mature for mass market adoption. On the other hand, device vendors such as HTC or Samsung and LG have entered the market very early in an attempt to differentiate themselves and increase market share. In the long term, however, we do not see early LTE adoption into devices as an entry barrier for newcomersSource: IDATE
  • 16. Review of LTE devices availability Dongles & mobile hot-spots Mobile handsets: early developments Samsung’s first LTE dongle Novatel MiFi 4510L mobile hotspot Early LTE handsets: Samsung Craft and Galaxy Indulge AT&T’s first smartphones HTC Thunderbolt, Verizon, first LTE Smartphone AT&T’s first mobile hotspot and dongle  Dongles and personal hot-spot devices prove to be popular  Voice supported on 3G networks Tablets Other connected devices ZyXEL LTE fixed router Sierra Wireless M2M LTE gateway Motorola Xoom tablet Samsung’s GalaxyTab 10.1  Tablets are an important part of the device offer  Routers for rural areas (Germany, Verizon)►30 Modules, 11 Tablets, 10 Notebooks, 2 PC Cards, 27 Smartphones, 70 Routers, 47 Dongles - Source: GSA 11/2011►700 MHz: 106, 800 MHz: 42, 1800 MHz: 41, 2600 MHz: 52, 800/1800/2600 MHz: 32, AWS: 35
  • 17. Review of LTE devices availability USB dongles and mobile hotspots Novatel MiFi 4510L mobile hotspot Manufacturer Device name Chipset used Modes Bands Launch date Epicom Unknown Qualcomm Unknown Unknown Q3 2011 Huawei Huawei Mobile WiFi E589 Qualcomm MDM 9200 LTE/HSPA/GSM 2600, 2100, 1800, 900 MHz Q3 2011 Novatel Novatel MiFi 4510L Qualcomm MDM 9600 LTE/CDMA EVDO/1x RTT 700 MHz for LTE Q1 2011 Samsung Samsung SCH-LC11 LTE/CDMA EVDO/1x RTT 700 MHz for LTE March 2011 Thanks to more mature chipsets being available commercially and more LTE networks being launched worldwide, the device market has evolved faster than expected The first multi-mode dongles have been released The basic USB dongles were naturally followed by MiFi devicesSource: IDATE
  • 18. Review of LTE devices availability Mobile handsets: early developments The early launch of the first LTE handset (Samsung Craft) on the US Early LTE handsets: Samsung Craft and Galaxy Indulge market (in 2010) has come sooner than expected HTC was the first mobile device manufacturer to launch an LTE-powered smartphone, the Thunderbolt, for the Verizon network The table below is a summary of announced LTE handsets. Most of them HTC Thunderbolt, Verizon, first LTE Smartphone are for the Verizon Wireless Band 13 (700 MHz) LTE network, and are powered by a Qualcomm chipset. Manufacturer Device name Specifications HTC Thunderbolt 1 GHz Snapdragon processor / MDM 9600 / Android 2.2 / 4.3" capacitive screen / 8 GB / 8 MP camera + rear-facing camera / DLNA support LG Revolution 1 GHz Snapdragon processor / MDM 9600 / Android 2.2 / 4.3" capacitive screen / 16 GB / 5 MP camera + rear-facing camera / HDMI / DLNA support Motorola Droid Bionic 4G Dual core 1.2 GHz Cortex A9 processor / MDM 9600 (*) / Android /4.3" capacitive screen / 16 GB / 8 MP camera + rear-facing camera / HDMI / DLNA support Craft Feature phone / Samsung CMC 2200 + Via Telecom / Proprietary OS / 165 MB internal memory + SD memory card / 3 MP camera Galaxy Indulge 1 GHz Hummingbird Samsung processor / Android 2.2 / 3.5” Capacitative screen / micro SD slot / 3.2 MP camera + 1.3 Mp rear facing camera / Samsung Stealth 4G 1 GHz Hummingbird (Cortex A8) processor / MDM 9600 / Android 2.2 / 4.3" capacitive screen / 16 GB / 8 MP camera + rear-facing camera / HDMI / DLNA supportSource: IDATE
  • 19. Review of LTE devices availability Motorola Xoom tablet Tablets: LTE as differentiating advantage? The tablet segment is bristling to establish itself on the mobile device market quickly, especially as mobile device manufacturers do not want to let Apple grab the whole of the pie Motorola was the first to announce an LTE-based version of its Xoom tablet in January 2011 Below is a summary of announced and expected LTE tablets on the market:Manufacturer Device name Specifications Launch date CommentsMotorola Xoom Nvidia Tegra 2 Dual core Cortex A9 1 GHz processor / Q3 2011 First launched with 3G only, it will be hardware-upgraded to LTE in Q2 2011. MDM 9600 (*) / Android 3.0 / 10.1" capacitive screen / 32 SD Card and Adobe Flash support not functional when launched but GB + SD card / 5 MP camera + 2 MP rear camera / HDMI / expected to come with software upgrade. 725gRIM Playbook 1 GHz Dual core Coretex A9 processor / QNX / 7" 2nd half of 2011 Will come first in a WiMAX edition for Sprint, and later in an LTE version, capacitive screen / 16 - 32 - 64 GB / 5 MP camera + 3MP probably for Verizon. Will support Android application through a porting of the rear-facing camera / HDMI / 400g Android Dalvik Java virtual machine.Samsung Galaxy Tab 4G 1.2 GHz Coretex A8 Hummingbird processor / Android 2.2 / end of Q2 2011 (*) Samsung is constantly updating its specs depending on competitors. It is 7" capacitive screen / 2 GB / 5 MP camera + 1.3 MP rear- thus still unclear if the version finally released will have these characteristics facing camera / DLNA / 400g or not. Android 2.2 is, among others, not the most appropriate OS for tablets.ZTE - Light LTE 1.2 Ghz undefined processor / Android 3.0 / 10” Planned for Q1 2012 It is not clear if V11 LTE tablet and Light LTE tanlets are the same devices. Capacitative screen / 4/8/16/32 GB / 5 MP camera + 1.3 MP The baseband will support FDD LTE / HSPA / WCDMA / Edge rear facing camera -Source: IDATE
  • 20. Review of LTE devices availability Machine to Machine communication modules As far as M2M communication modules and gateways are concerned, some companies have already announced product availability. This is notably the case of Cinterio and, more recently, Sierra Wireless but the case for such use has not yet been proved. M2M usages are today rather narrowband usages and sensitivity to prices is very high, meaning that M2M LTE devices are not yet particularly relevant. However, remote video surveillance is seen already as a worthy usage for LTE Sierra Wireless M2M LTE gateway M2M. Besides, as very few 3G M2M modules are today available, companies may well chose to switch directly from GPRS / Edge module to 4G modules, so as to maximise the communication module life cycle. Below is a summary of available LTE M2M products: Company Name of the product Kind of product Specifications Sierra Wireless Airlink GX440 M2M gateway Band 13 (700 Mhz), 3G gateway upgradable to 4G to ease transition Cinterion NA NA Reportedly working on it Source: IDATE
  • 21. Review of LTE devices availability Other LTE devices ZyXEL LTE fixed router Fixed routers and / or gateways: as for Fixed (Ultra) Broadband Wireless Access, some companies have been devising LTE home gateways to serve grey areas in areas of low population density. This market could be driven by countries such as Germany where MNOs are obliged by their license to deploy broadband in such areas. Kindle store on iPad and Samsung Galaxy Tab eReaders are, broadly speaking, very specialised tablets with adapted hardware and electronic ink display enabling long-lasting batteries and increased comfort for reading. We do not see, however, the business case for LTE support in these devices, with their very competitive prices. We believe more eReader manufacturers will either enter the tablet market with a device proposition or adapt their content distribution platform to be available on smartphone Mobile gaming devices: some companies – Sony Ericsson is one such – are now transforming their smartphones into gaming devices Sony Ericsson Xperia Play rather than adding connectivity to existing gaming devicesSource: IDATE
  • 22. LTE networks status & tariffing
  • 23. LTE commercial services The LTE ecosystem is growing from strength to strength with more than 200 operators already having announced their commitment to LTE technologyOperator Country Date Frequency band Operator Country Date Frequency bandAT&T USA 09/2011 700 MHz Omnitel Lithuania 04/2011 2.6 GHzA1 (Telekom Austria) Austria 11/2010 2.6 GHz Rogers Wireless Canada 07/2011 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS)Aero2 Poland 09/2010 1800 MHz SK Telecom South Korea 07/2011 2.1 GHzBell Mobility Canada 09/2011 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS) Smart Communications Philippines 04/2011 2.6 GHzCSL Hong-Kong 11/2010 1800 MHz & 2.6 GHz STC Saudi Arabia 09/2011 2.6 GHzDoCoMo Japan 12/2010 2.1 GHz T-Mobile Germany 04/2011 800 MHzElisa Finland 12/2010 2.6 GHz TeliaSonera Denmark 12/2010 2.6 GHzEMT Estonia 12/2010 2.6 GHz TeliaSonera Finland 05/2010 2.6 GHzLG U+ South Korea 07/2011 2.1 GHz TeliaSonera Norway 12/2009 2.6 GHzLMT Latvia 05/2011 1800 MHz TeliaSonera Sweden 12/2009 2.6 GHzM1 Singapore 06/2011 1.8 GHz and 2.6 GHz UCell Uzbekistan 08/2010 2.6 GHzMetroPCS USA 09/2010 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS) Verizon Wireless USA 11/2010 700 MHzMTS Uzbekistan 08/2010 2.6 GHz Vodafone Germany 12/2010 800 MHzMobily Saudi Arabia 09/2011 2.6 GHz Zain Saudi Arabia 09/2011 2.6 GHzNet4Mobility – Telenor & Tele2 Sweden 11/2010 2.6 GHzO2 Germany 07/2011 800 MHzSource: IDATE – October 2011
  • 24. LTE deployment roadmap Geographical mapping of early LTE commercial deployment  In September 2011, 30 operators had launched LTE service and at least 16 more are expected during the second half of the year Europe  Major deployment for Verizon Wireless: 110 M pop covered at end-2010 and 160 M at mid- 2011 (nationwide by 2013) Canada and USA  Limited coverage for European operators except Germany Asia Major operators LTE commercial deployment schedule 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013  LTE subscribers figures Sept. 2011 3GPP WCDMA Operators  Verizon Wireless: around 3 million TD- SCDMA  DoCoMo: 390,000 Xi (LTE) subscriptions, with a full-year target of 1.3 million 3GPP2 CDMA operatorsSource: IDATE
  • 25. Enablers of mobile traffic and tariffing trends ►Towards more differentiation (device type, speed…), more QoS managementSource: IDATE
  • 26. TeliaSonera (Sweden) - 2009 LTE tariffing Name and scope of rate plan Speed/ USB-modem Data Monthly tariff/► EUR 62 per month including the usage of 30 GB data per month ‘Surfzone’ (for contract volume rate with► Additional data volume costs € 8.7 per 2GB and € 12.9 for 5GB hotspot of 18 months) discount 1 speedMetroPCS (USA) - 2010 Mellan 4G (‘Intermediate 4G’) 5-10 Included 10 GB SEK 299 Mbit/s SEK 249► The $55 plan includes unlimited voice, texting and LTE data access <22 Mbit/s► LTE-capable Samsung Craft for $299 Stor 4G (‘Grand 4G’) – Promotion 10-20 Included 20 GB SEK 349 forA1 Telekom (Austria) - 2010 price Mbit/s 18 months2/ <22 Mbit/s SEK 299 for► Plans LTE commercial service in Vienna in the 2.6 GHz band 18 months3► 30 GB of data a month at speeds of up to 150 Mbps for €90 per month Total 4G – Promotion price 10-80 Included 30 GB SEK 349 for Mbit/s six months4Vodafone (Germany) - 2011 <22 Mbit/s SEK 249 for 6 months5► 7.2 Mbps downstream for €39.99 per month with a cap of 10 GB► For a downlink speed of 50 Mbps and 30 GB cap, the monthly cost is € 69.99 Plan Monthly fee Monthly data Overage fee Allowance 4G mobile broadband plans (for 4G USB modems) USD 50 5 GB USD 10 per 1 GB USD 80 10 GB USD 10 per 1 GB Mobile broadband connect and 3G mobile hotspots USD 20 2 GB USD 20 per 1 GB (for smartphones and feature phones) Mobile broadband plans (tablets, netbooks) USD 20 1 GB USD 20 per 1 GB USD 35 3 GB USD 10 per 1 GB USD 50 5 GB USD 10 per 1 GB USD 80 10 GB USD 10 per 1 GBSource: IDATE
  • 27. The LTE wholesale model Sharing agreement? Will sell LTE capacity Provides cells Sells LTE sites and capacity? helps building Sells Mobile theterrstrial LTE network WiMAX capacity  Many actors using new Will sell LTE spectrum (satellite L- capacity to MVNOs and distributors Sells LTE Band, S-band, 2.3 capacity GHz…)  Consolidation likely in the USA Plans to build a wholesale LTE network in the S-band (USA) Builds a wholesale LTE network in  Difficulties in Russia the 1800 MHz band (Poland)  Sharing and wholesale model can be combined Builds a wholesale LTE network in the 2.3 GHz band for rural areas Build a common GSM and LTE network (Sweden)Source: IDATE
  • 28. LTE subscribers forecasts 400,000► By the end of 2015, we 350,000 forecast that overall there will be more than 379 million LTE 300,000 subscribers (worldwide). 250,000► We forecast 13.8 million LTE 200,000 subscribers at the end of 2011 150,000 with the USA representing the bulk of this figure with 100,000 11.6 million subscribers. 50,000► At the end of 2015, Asia- - Pacific should represent 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 35.2% of the total, North Asia-Pacific 1,066 8,383 29,260 70,402 133,310 America 31.4% and Western Western Europe 1,103 4,292 14,946 44,607 85,246 Europe 22.5%. Central & Eastern Europe 68 1,547 3,600 11,592 21,879 North America 11,635 32,588 58,323 85,535 118,955 Latin America 247 1,027 3,402 11,128 Africa-Middle East 223 1,469 5,298 8,493 Total 13 872 47,280 108,624 220,836 379,012Source: IDATE (June 2011)
  • 29. LTE spectrum: valuation & fragmentation risks
  • 30. LTE spectrum Fragmentation is here Countries Existing frequency bands New frequency bands Main LTE frequency bands Europe 900 MHz 1800 MHz 800 MHz (790-862 MHz – Digital Dividend) 2.6 GHz ► Regional harmonisation likely to be the first step 2.1 GHz USA 850 MHz 700 MHz (698-806 MHz)  Americas: DD (700 MHz), AWS, 2.6 GHz 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS) 1900 MHz (PCS) 1.4-1.6 GHz (LightSquared) S-band (Dish)?  Europe: DD (800 MHz), 1800 MHz, 2.6 GHz South America 2.6 GHz 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS) 700 MHz (698-806 MHz) 1800 MHz 2.6 GHz  Asia Pac: 2.3 GHz, 2.6 GHz 1900 MHz (PCS) China 2.3 GHz ► In the USA, LightSquared will use specific bands (1.4-1.6 2.6 GHz Japan 850 MHz 700 MHz (698-806 MHz planned) GHz…) 1.7/1.9 GHz 2.1 GHz 1.5 GHz ► Roaming is not a priority today South Korea 1800 MHz 2100 MHz 800 MHz Rest of Asia-Pacific 1800 MHz 700 MHz (698-806 MHz planned) 2.3 GHz 2.6 GHz Legend: Currently used by LTE Likely use by LTE Other mobile frequency bands Spectrum price Premium spectrum (€ cents per MHz per pop) 600 518.2 500 ► EUR 70 cents per MHz per pop in Germany for 400 the DD: very close to the level reached in the USA. In Sweden it sold for EUR 31 cents, in 300 Spain for EUR 54 cents and in Italy for 85 cents. 200 ► 2.6 GHz spectrum much cheaper: in the EUR 0.1-10 cents range 100 84.2 70.3 71.4 29.9 20.3 49.6 50.6 10.7 54.5 31.1 ► France 2.6 GHz: € 11 cents 5.1 0 Australia 850 Canada France France Free France 2.1 France 2.1 Germany Germany Germany Spain 800 Sweden 800 USA 700 ► Italy 2.6 GHz: € 6 cents MHz 2004 AWS 2008 UMTS core 2009 GHz Orange GHz SFR 800 MHz T- UMTS core 2.1 GHz MHz 2011 MHz 2011 MHz 2008 band 2001 2010 2010 Mobile 2010 band 2010Source: IDATE
  • 31. TD-LTE: a complement to LTE FDD TD-LTE: already in commercial service Migration paths to TD-LTE► The growing interest for TD-LTE can be explained by Tests Initial deployments Mass market the following factors 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014  Unlike 3G, the TDD and FDD versions of LTE as TD-LTE TD-LTE selected as natural evolution from TD-SCDMA. adoption Will implement a TD-LTE network in 2012/2013 Went bankruptcy in 2009. defined by the standardisation body 3GPP are 90% Might choose TD-LTE Announced in May 2010 choice of TD-LTE Early tests similar. First commercial  Availability of (unused) TDD spectrum TD-LTE launch  Ecosystem: there is strong support from leading TD-SCDMA Super-PHS mobile operators + some WiMAX actors (Yota & 2.3 GHz spectrum 2.6 GHz TDD spectrum Clearwire?) Mobile-WiMAX Mobile-WiMAX Source: IDATE► TDD mode in China and in India 2.6 GHz TDD spectrum 2.6 GHz TDD spectrum  There is strong potential for TD-LTE in China as it is seen as the natural evolution of the home-grown 3G TD-SCDMA Likely frequency bands for TD-LTE standard; Operators 3G Technology Frequency band Date  China Mobile, the first mobile operator in the World by the number of subscribers, is currently rolling out its 3G network P1 (Malaysia) Mobile WiMAX 2.3 GHz 2012 using the TD-SCDMA technology. The operator claims that China Mobile TD-SCDMA 2.3 GHz 2011-2013 60% of its CAPEX will be reusable for its planned TD-LTE India WCDMA and CDMA 2000 2.3 GHz 2011-2012 network. A strong ecosystem is appearing as there is also Europe WCDMA and TD-CDMA (unused) 2 GHz >2013? support from BWA actors in India and, in addition, some Europe none 2.6 GHz 2011-2013 Mobile WiMAX actors could shift to TD-LTE in the coming Yota (Russia) Mobile WiMAX 2.6 GHz 2011 years Clearwire (USA) Mobile WiMAX 2.6 GHz 2012-2013► First TD-LTE launch in September 2011 Willcom (Japan) Mobile WiMAX 2.6 GHz 2012?
  • 32. LTE strategies Reduce costs Reduce costs Reduce costs Need for Need for Need for Competition additional Competition additional Competition additional capacity capacity capacity Provide Provide Provide higher data Increase ARPU rates Increase ARPU higher data rates Increase ARPU higher data rates IDATE has identified five Reduce costs Reduce costs Reduce costs key drivers as reasons for MNOs to migrate to LTE: Competition Need for additional capacity Competition Need for additional capacity Competition Need for additional capacity ►Reduce costs ►Need for additional capacity ►Increase ARPU Increase Provide higher data rates Increase Provide higher data rates Increase Provide higher data rates ►Provide higher data ARPU ARPU ARPU rates Reduce costs Reduce costs Reduce costs ►Competitive pressure Need for Need for Need for additional additional additional capacity capacity capacity Competition Competition Competition Provide Provide Provide Increase higher data Increase Increase higher data higher data ARPU rates ARPU ARPU rates rates 32Source: IDATE
  • 33. Conclusions
  • 34. Conclusions Mobile sector still dynamic in the USA, struggling in Europe Devices:  Smarphones representing a growing part of devices shipments  LTE devices coming slowly to the market  The US market is currently the priority for LTE device manufacturers LTE networks  RAN available, LTE commercial networks in 2010  IMS core networks being built, key to VoLTE offering  LTE delivers the expected data rates and latency  LTE-Advanced: probably earlier than expected LTE is seen as a solution to congestion and saturation network issues in dense areas LTE spectrum  Fragmentation risk  Regional harmonization likely MNOs strategies  New technology path  More capacity/ higher data rates  Network sharing developing and wholesale operators appearing
  • 35. The “IDATE Watch Services” are specifically designed to provide operators,vendors, government bodies and regulators with a comprehensive andcontinuous analysis of the issues that impact the markets> FTTx Watch Service > LTE Watch Service  Database - a unique, continually updated market database, providing market data by country and by technology and forecasts  Insights - Monthly views on key issues  Market reports - in-depth analysis  Analyst Access - consulting hours, analyst briefs, presentations
  • 36. THANK YOU! 36