Mr Gassot IDATE Latest Questions about FTTH

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  • Dow Jones STOXX® 600 Telecommunications [6500] Covers: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Includes: VODAFONE GRP, TELEFONICA, FRANCE TELECOM, DEUTSCHE TELEKOM, KPN, BT GRP, TELECOM ITALIA, TELIASONERA, SWISSCOM, BELGACOM, CABLE & WIRELESS, PORTUGAL TELECOM, TELENOR, TELEKOM AUSTRIA, OTE, INMARSAT, TELE2, ELISA CORPORATION, MOBISTAR Dow Jones STOXX® TMI Telecommunications Equipment [9578] Makers and distributors of high-technology communication products, including satellites, mobile telephones, fi ber optics, switching devices, local and wide-area networks, teleconferencing equipment and connectivity devices for computers, including hubs and routers. Covers: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Includes: NOKIA, ERICSSON, ALCATEL LUCENT

Transcript

  • 1. Session: What long term impact of FTTH on the telecom industry’s structure? DigiWorld Summit 2011 NextGen Networks 1: Latest questions about FTTH Yves GASSOT [email_address] 16 novembre 2011
  • 2. Contents
    • Major business issues around traffic delivery
      • Finding the right balance between network funding and service innovation
    • Potential evolutions for value transfers in the value chain
    Access networks CAPEX in million EUR Fixed networks traffic in Exabytes Source: IDATE Consumption of top video services Fiber and Internet value chain
  • 3. Revenue for OTT services Key questions around Internet traffic Managed services Payment for traffic Payment for content/service Content provider Hosting ----------------------- CDN Telco N End-user Telco 1 ISP Telco … Device Open Internet Peering ~ 0€ Revenue sharing for managed services Transit or peering Internet subscription # 4: Managed services # 5: Unlimited traffic # 3: Peering # 2: Transit and CDN pricing # 1: Content economics CDN
  • 4. Potential evolutions with value transfer options around telcos Telco Content & Service End-user Volume QoS Service & Content #1: Pay per use #2: Pay per quality #3: New interco #4: Performance-based #6: Bundles traffic/service & Smart boxes #5: Traffic wholesale Pricing based on
  • 5. NGAN: Possible Models (1)
    • .
  • 6. NGAN: possible models (2)
    • .
  • 7. Key variables for Telecom futures
    • Revenues growth (and margin)? A) Steady revenues ; B) Erosion, C) Growth
    • Consolidation? A) national, B) supranational (« a single European market »)
    • Fixed-Mobile Convergence?
    • Separation? A)’Open Reach’, B) ‘NBN’, C) Shared infrastructures & outsourcing, D) Municipal initiatives …
    • Smart pipe (access ecosystem + content/applications distribution)?
    • ‘ Wholesaler’ approach? Cf. Lightsquared
    • Utility model?
    • Asymetric vs. symetric Regulation? Ex ante vs. ex post ?
  • 8. Exemple of contrasting scenarios
    • . ... based on 2 key variables (concentrated- vertical / fragmented – horizontal) and economy (growth vs. declining revenues) - source : IBM-IDATE
  • 9. Thank you !