Learning from the FutureAgility and the Next-Generation OrganisationPaul Louis IskeProfessor Open Innovation & Business Ve...
The world is complex Learning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   2
The Innovator’s Dilemma                   Established technology    Performance                                           ...
Learning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   4
Learning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   5
Learning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   6
Agile or Trapped in Patterns?Learning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   7
Learning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   8
CreativityBeing multiparadigmatic:flexibly moving between,combining and integratingdiverse ideas, perspectives,intelligenc...
Increasing the Creativity ScoreLearning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   10
PerspectivesLearning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   11
Paradigm ShiftsA Paradigm shift is a change in the basicassumptions within the ruling theory of scienceThomas Kuhn (1962) ...
key         value                        customer            activities        proposition                  relationships ...
•   Client = Employee  Co-creation (Key Resources, Channels)•   Competitor = Colleague  Open Innovation•   Stranger = St...
“WHAT IF?”      AN INTRODUCTION TO      SCENARIO THINKING    Navigating in a complex             worldLearning from the Fu...
What are Scenarios?• Scenarios are possible views of the world,  described in narrative form (stories) that  provide a con...
Scenario Planning - History• Use in strategic planning has evolved  from military applications• Theoretical foundations de...
Guidelines  • Long View – day-to-day work is    usually driven by near-term    concerns and urgent needs –    scenario thi...
Guidelines  • Outside-In Thinking – most think    from the inside, the things they    control, out to the world they would...
Guidelines  • Multiple Perspectives – the introduction    of multiple perspectives, different from    managing multiple st...
Types of Futures• Possible - “might” happen (future knowledge)• Plausible – “could” happen (current knowledge)• Probable -...
Types of Futures                                              “Wildcard”   Possible                                       ...
The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and  external• Selecting dri...
The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and  external• Selecting dri...
The Focal Question• Identify a focal area or issue – such as a decision or question  that is critical to the future of you...
The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and  external• Selecting dri...
Major Drivers of Change •   Social •   Technological •   Economic •   Environmental •   PoliticalLearning from the Future ...
The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and  external• Selecting dri...
What is “Uncertainty”?• “Low” means we are reasonably certain  that it will play out or continue in ways  that are fairly ...
The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and  external• Selecting dri...
Impact-Uncertainty Classification                    Critical      Important              Critical        High        Plan...
The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and  external• Selecting dri...
Developing & Presenting theScenarios• In this step, we ‘flesh out’ each world.  The requirements for this step are to  sus...
ExampleScenarioVisualizationLearning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   39
ExampleScenarioVisualizationLearning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   40
ExampleScenarioVisualizationLearning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   41
A Bank with ideasLearning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   42
Scenario’s for a countryLearning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   43
Developments in Healthcare systemLearning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   44
Learning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   45
Scenario’s in EducationLearning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   46
Flesh out of a ScenarioLearning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   47
Three hard truthsAn era of fundamental transitions:• Rising global energy demand• Supply will struggle to keep pace• Unsus...
Shell choose only one uncertainty driver                    Critical UncertaintyWill society act reactive or proactive?Rea...
Two energy scenarios Scramble • A more reactive approach:      – Events outpace action      – CO emissions not            ...
The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and  external• Selecting dri...
From Scenarios to Strategy• The Scenarios are not the only purpose  of the exercise!     – the resulting “freeing up” of t...
Using Scenario Outputs• Does your organisation’s existing strategy  stand up to all of the future worlds  presented in the...
Manifest Next Generation Bank: inspiratie tot nadenkenZorgt voor schaalbare menselijkheidEerst vertrouwen én verantwoordel...
Your turn…• Identify a key issue for ABN AMRO and the  most important but uncertain drivers of  change.• Plot them on your...
Example Building the Scenario MatrixChoose two drivers that are mostuncertain and most critical in terms ofimpact on the c...
Building the Scenario Matrix                            Critical Uncertainty 1                     World 2               W...
Thank you!Learning from the Future   Amsterdam, May 22, 2012   58
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Van de toekomst kun je leren - Scenario Thinking

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Van de toekomst kun je leren - Scenario Thinking

  1. 1. Learning from the FutureAgility and the Next-Generation OrganisationPaul Louis IskeProfessor Open Innovation & Business Venturing, Maastricht UniversityChief Dialogues Officer ABN AMRO Bank
  2. 2. The world is complex Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 2
  3. 3. The Innovator’s Dilemma Established technology Performance Mainstream customer needs !CRISIS ! Invasive Technology Niche customer needsClayton Christensen: The Innovator’s Dilemma Time Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 3
  4. 4. Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 4
  5. 5. Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 5
  6. 6. Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 6
  7. 7. Agile or Trapped in Patterns?Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 7
  8. 8. Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 8
  9. 9. CreativityBeing multiparadigmatic:flexibly moving between,combining and integratingdiverse ideas, perspectives,intelligences and paradigms PO =Provocative Operation Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 9
  10. 10. Increasing the Creativity ScoreLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 10
  11. 11. PerspectivesLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 11
  12. 12. Paradigm ShiftsA Paradigm shift is a change in the basicassumptions within the ruling theory of scienceThomas Kuhn (1962) Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 12
  13. 13. key value customer activities proposition relationships key customerpartners segments cost revenuestructure key streams resources channels Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 13 13 images by JAM
  14. 14. • Client = Employee  Co-creation (Key Resources, Channels)• Competitor = Colleague  Open Innovation• Stranger = Strategic Partner  Combinatoric Innovation• Crisis = Opportunity  Restructuring• Succes = Danger  Disruptive Innovation• Change = Fun  Fashion• Knowledge = Commodity  Rising Knowledge Economies• Valuable = Free  Free Content (Revenu Streams)• Client = Account Manager  Qiy (Customer Relationships)• Authority = Powerless  Publishers (Knowledge Resources)• Best Practices = Worst Practices  Land Lines• Money & Sustainability = Good pair  Green Energy• IP = Outdated  Open Source• Diversity = Asset  Ideo• Certainties = Fake  Portfolio Management• Risk = Attractive  Insurances• Poor = Rich  Bottom of Pyramid (Customer Segment, Cost Structure)• Small = Big  Crowfunding (Cost Structure)• Play = Serious  LEGO Serious Play (Customer Segment)• Failure = Blessing  Brilliant Failures Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 14
  15. 15. “WHAT IF?” AN INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO THINKING Navigating in a complex worldLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 15
  16. 16. What are Scenarios?• Scenarios are possible views of the world, described in narrative form (stories) that provide a context in which managers can make decisions.• By seeing a range of possible worlds, decisions will be better informed, and a strategy based on this knowledge and insight will be more likely to succeed.• Scenarios do not predict the future, but they do illuminate the drivers of change: understanding them can only help managers to take greater control of their situation.Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 16 Gill Ringland
  17. 17. Scenario Planning - History• Use in strategic planning has evolved from military applications• Theoretical foundations developed in the 1970s and early 80s – complex theoretical models seen as expensive and impractical beyond academic use• Royal Dutch Shell popularized scenario planning - petroleum crisis in 1973.Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 17
  18. 18. Guidelines • Long View – day-to-day work is usually driven by near-term concerns and urgent needs – scenario thinking requires looking beyond immediate demands and peering far enough into the future to see new possibilities – asking “what if……”Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 18
  19. 19. Guidelines • Outside-In Thinking – most think from the inside, the things they control, out to the world they would like to shape. Conversely, thinking from the outside-in begins with pondering external changes that might, over time, profoundly affect your work.Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 19
  20. 20. Guidelines • Multiple Perspectives – the introduction of multiple perspectives, different from managing multiple stakeholders – is based on diverse voices that shed new light on strategic challenges, helps to better understand one’s own assumptions, and exposes new ideas that inform perspective and help to see the big picture of an issue or idea. Global Business NetworkLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 20
  21. 21. Types of Futures• Possible - “might” happen (future knowledge)• Plausible – “could” happen (current knowledge)• Probable - “likely to” happen (current trends)• Preferable - “want to” happen (value judgements) Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 21
  22. 22. Types of Futures “Wildcard” Possible Scenario Plausible Probable Preferable Today Time Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 22
  23. 23. The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implicationsLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 23
  24. 24. The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implicationsLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 24
  25. 25. The Focal Question• Identify a focal area or issue – such as a decision or question that is critical to the future of your organisation now.• Useful foci often emerge from major challenges of today”• Choose a “horizon year” as the distance into the future that the scenarios will extend (beyond the typical time scale of your organisation): – allows suspension of disbelief (the “that won’t happen” reaction); – will you be in the same position you are in today in 10 years? Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 25
  26. 26. The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implications Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 26
  27. 27. Major Drivers of Change • Social • Technological • Economic • Environmental • PoliticalLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 27
  28. 28. The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implications Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 33
  29. 29. What is “Uncertainty”?• “Low” means we are reasonably certain that it will play out or continue in ways that are fairly well understood – eg. population• “High” means that we have no clear idea which of a number of plausible ways it might go – eg. government legislation and policy• “Mod” means “somewhere in between”Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 34
  30. 30. The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implicationsLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 35
  31. 31. Impact-Uncertainty Classification Critical Important Critical High Planning Scenario ScenarioI Issues Drivers Driversmp Important Important Important Mod Planning Planning Scenarioa Issues Issues Driversc Monitor &t Low Monitor Monitor re-assess Low Moderate High UncertaintyLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 36
  32. 32. The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implications Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 37
  33. 33. Developing & Presenting theScenarios• In this step, we ‘flesh out’ each world. The requirements for this step are to suspend disbelief, trust your intuition, look for plausibility, surprises and novel elements.• Scenarios must be internally consistent and plausible – they have to make sense to the people creating them, and to the people in the organisation who will read them.Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 38
  34. 34. ExampleScenarioVisualizationLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 39
  35. 35. ExampleScenarioVisualizationLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 40
  36. 36. ExampleScenarioVisualizationLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 41
  37. 37. A Bank with ideasLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 42
  38. 38. Scenario’s for a countryLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 43
  39. 39. Developments in Healthcare systemLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 44
  40. 40. Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 45
  41. 41. Scenario’s in EducationLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 46
  42. 42. Flesh out of a ScenarioLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 47
  43. 43. Three hard truthsAn era of fundamental transitions:• Rising global energy demand• Supply will struggle to keep pace• Unsustainable CO levels in atmosphere 2 DEMAND SUPPLY CO2 Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 48
  44. 44. Shell choose only one uncertainty driver Critical UncertaintyWill society act reactive or proactive?Reactive Proactive Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 49
  45. 45. Two energy scenarios Scramble • A more reactive approach: – Events outpace action – CO emissions not 2 addressed until major climate events experienced at local levels SCRAMBLE Blueprints • A proactive approach: – Action outpacing events – Global policy framework and price on CO emissions 2 BLUEPRINTSLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 50
  46. 46. The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implications Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 51
  47. 47. From Scenarios to Strategy• The Scenarios are not the only purpose of the exercise! – the resulting “freeing up” of thinking while creating them is!• Expanding understanding of what options might be available in the long term: – shifts frame of reference 10-20 years out. – examining implications for the services provided by your organisation in each of the scenario worlds – looking to see what your organisation would need to do to stay viableLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 52
  48. 48. Using Scenario Outputs• Does your organisation’s existing strategy stand up to all of the future worlds presented in these scenarios?• What rationale would you have for pursuing various strategic options in each scenario? What can you influence?• What early indicators will we monitor?• After considering the strategic implications of the scenarios, what actions might we recommend?• Deciding on an implementation plan.Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 53
  49. 49. Manifest Next Generation Bank: inspiratie tot nadenkenZorgt voor schaalbare menselijkheidEerst vertrouwen én verantwoordelijkheid delen metklanten en medewerkers, daarna pas vertrouwen enverantwoordelijkheid oogsten.Faciliteert een customer-managed relationshipVan een klantgerichte naar eenklantgestuurde organisatie.Matcht technologische met sociale innovatieSlimmer gebruik maken van intellectueel kapitaal: uit onderzoek van de ErasmusUniversiteit blijkt dat het succes van innovatie slechts voor 25% wordt bepaald doorinvesteringen in R&D; voor de overige 75% is innovatie afhankelijk van factoren op hetgebied van mens en organisatie.Is een ethisch bedrijfZe weet dat mensen en organisaties elkaar uitkiezen omdat hun relatie waarde creëert dooraan te sluiten bij wat die mensen zoeken. Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 54
  50. 50. Your turn…• Identify a key issue for ABN AMRO and the most important but uncertain drivers of change.• Plot them on your impact-uncertainty matrix.• Pick two from the upper right hand corner Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 55
  51. 51. Example Building the Scenario MatrixChoose two drivers that are mostuncertain and most critical in terms ofimpact on the chosen ABN AMRO key issue. Critical Uncertainty 1 Critical Uncertainty 2Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 56
  52. 52. Building the Scenario Matrix Critical Uncertainty 1 World 2 World 1CriticalUncertainty 2 World 3 World 4 Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 57
  53. 53. Thank you!Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 58
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