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Van de toekomst kun je leren - Scenario Thinking

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  • 1. Learning from the FutureAgility and the Next-Generation OrganisationPaul Louis IskeProfessor Open Innovation & Business Venturing, Maastricht UniversityChief Dialogues Officer ABN AMRO Bank
  • 2. The world is complex Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 2
  • 3. The Innovator’s Dilemma Established technology Performance Mainstream customer needs !CRISIS ! Invasive Technology Niche customer needsClayton Christensen: The Innovator’s Dilemma Time Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 3
  • 4. Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 4
  • 5. Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 5
  • 6. Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 6
  • 7. Agile or Trapped in Patterns?Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 7
  • 8. Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 8
  • 9. CreativityBeing multiparadigmatic:flexibly moving between,combining and integratingdiverse ideas, perspectives,intelligences and paradigms PO =Provocative Operation Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 9
  • 10. Increasing the Creativity ScoreLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 10
  • 11. PerspectivesLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 11
  • 12. Paradigm ShiftsA Paradigm shift is a change in the basicassumptions within the ruling theory of scienceThomas Kuhn (1962) Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 12
  • 13. key value customer activities proposition relationships key customerpartners segments cost revenuestructure key streams resources channels Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 13 13 images by JAM
  • 14. • Client = Employee  Co-creation (Key Resources, Channels)• Competitor = Colleague  Open Innovation• Stranger = Strategic Partner  Combinatoric Innovation• Crisis = Opportunity  Restructuring• Succes = Danger  Disruptive Innovation• Change = Fun  Fashion• Knowledge = Commodity  Rising Knowledge Economies• Valuable = Free  Free Content (Revenu Streams)• Client = Account Manager  Qiy (Customer Relationships)• Authority = Powerless  Publishers (Knowledge Resources)• Best Practices = Worst Practices  Land Lines• Money & Sustainability = Good pair  Green Energy• IP = Outdated  Open Source• Diversity = Asset  Ideo• Certainties = Fake  Portfolio Management• Risk = Attractive  Insurances• Poor = Rich  Bottom of Pyramid (Customer Segment, Cost Structure)• Small = Big  Crowfunding (Cost Structure)• Play = Serious  LEGO Serious Play (Customer Segment)• Failure = Blessing  Brilliant Failures Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 14
  • 15. “WHAT IF?” AN INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO THINKING Navigating in a complex worldLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 15
  • 16. What are Scenarios?• Scenarios are possible views of the world, described in narrative form (stories) that provide a context in which managers can make decisions.• By seeing a range of possible worlds, decisions will be better informed, and a strategy based on this knowledge and insight will be more likely to succeed.• Scenarios do not predict the future, but they do illuminate the drivers of change: understanding them can only help managers to take greater control of their situation.Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 16 Gill Ringland
  • 17. Scenario Planning - History• Use in strategic planning has evolved from military applications• Theoretical foundations developed in the 1970s and early 80s – complex theoretical models seen as expensive and impractical beyond academic use• Royal Dutch Shell popularized scenario planning - petroleum crisis in 1973.Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 17
  • 18. Guidelines • Long View – day-to-day work is usually driven by near-term concerns and urgent needs – scenario thinking requires looking beyond immediate demands and peering far enough into the future to see new possibilities – asking “what if……”Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 18
  • 19. Guidelines • Outside-In Thinking – most think from the inside, the things they control, out to the world they would like to shape. Conversely, thinking from the outside-in begins with pondering external changes that might, over time, profoundly affect your work.Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 19
  • 20. Guidelines • Multiple Perspectives – the introduction of multiple perspectives, different from managing multiple stakeholders – is based on diverse voices that shed new light on strategic challenges, helps to better understand one’s own assumptions, and exposes new ideas that inform perspective and help to see the big picture of an issue or idea. Global Business NetworkLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 20
  • 21. Types of Futures• Possible - “might” happen (future knowledge)• Plausible – “could” happen (current knowledge)• Probable - “likely to” happen (current trends)• Preferable - “want to” happen (value judgements) Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 21
  • 22. Types of Futures “Wildcard” Possible Scenario Plausible Probable Preferable Today Time Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 22
  • 23. The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implicationsLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 23
  • 24. The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implicationsLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 24
  • 25. The Focal Question• Identify a focal area or issue – such as a decision or question that is critical to the future of your organisation now.• Useful foci often emerge from major challenges of today”• Choose a “horizon year” as the distance into the future that the scenarios will extend (beyond the typical time scale of your organisation): – allows suspension of disbelief (the “that won’t happen” reaction); – will you be in the same position you are in today in 10 years? Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 25
  • 26. The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implications Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 26
  • 27. Major Drivers of Change • Social • Technological • Economic • Environmental • PoliticalLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 27
  • 28. The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implications Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 33
  • 29. What is “Uncertainty”?• “Low” means we are reasonably certain that it will play out or continue in ways that are fairly well understood – eg. population• “High” means that we have no clear idea which of a number of plausible ways it might go – eg. government legislation and policy• “Mod” means “somewhere in between”Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 34
  • 30. The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implicationsLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 35
  • 31. Impact-Uncertainty Classification Critical Important Critical High Planning Scenario ScenarioI Issues Drivers Driversmp Important Important Important Mod Planning Planning Scenarioa Issues Issues Driversc Monitor &t Low Monitor Monitor re-assess Low Moderate High UncertaintyLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 36
  • 32. The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implications Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 37
  • 33. Developing & Presenting theScenarios• In this step, we ‘flesh out’ each world. The requirements for this step are to suspend disbelief, trust your intuition, look for plausibility, surprises and novel elements.• Scenarios must be internally consistent and plausible – they have to make sense to the people creating them, and to the people in the organisation who will read them.Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 38
  • 34. ExampleScenarioVisualizationLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 39
  • 35. ExampleScenarioVisualizationLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 40
  • 36. ExampleScenarioVisualizationLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 41
  • 37. A Bank with ideasLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 42
  • 38. Scenario’s for a countryLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 43
  • 39. Developments in Healthcare systemLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 44
  • 40. Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 45
  • 41. Scenario’s in EducationLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 46
  • 42. Flesh out of a ScenarioLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 47
  • 43. Three hard truthsAn era of fundamental transitions:• Rising global energy demand• Supply will struggle to keep pace• Unsustainable CO levels in atmosphere 2 DEMAND SUPPLY CO2 Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 48
  • 44. Shell choose only one uncertainty driver Critical UncertaintyWill society act reactive or proactive?Reactive Proactive Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 49
  • 45. Two energy scenarios Scramble • A more reactive approach: – Events outpace action – CO emissions not 2 addressed until major climate events experienced at local levels SCRAMBLE Blueprints • A proactive approach: – Action outpacing events – Global policy framework and price on CO emissions 2 BLUEPRINTSLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 50
  • 46. The Scenario Planning Process• Identify the focal question• Environmental scanning – internal and external• Selecting drivers of change and ranking• Building the scenario matrix• Developing the scenarios• Presenting the scenarios• Considering the strategic implications Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 51
  • 47. From Scenarios to Strategy• The Scenarios are not the only purpose of the exercise! – the resulting “freeing up” of thinking while creating them is!• Expanding understanding of what options might be available in the long term: – shifts frame of reference 10-20 years out. – examining implications for the services provided by your organisation in each of the scenario worlds – looking to see what your organisation would need to do to stay viableLearning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 52
  • 48. Using Scenario Outputs• Does your organisation’s existing strategy stand up to all of the future worlds presented in these scenarios?• What rationale would you have for pursuing various strategic options in each scenario? What can you influence?• What early indicators will we monitor?• After considering the strategic implications of the scenarios, what actions might we recommend?• Deciding on an implementation plan.Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 53
  • 49. Manifest Next Generation Bank: inspiratie tot nadenkenZorgt voor schaalbare menselijkheidEerst vertrouwen én verantwoordelijkheid delen metklanten en medewerkers, daarna pas vertrouwen enverantwoordelijkheid oogsten.Faciliteert een customer-managed relationshipVan een klantgerichte naar eenklantgestuurde organisatie.Matcht technologische met sociale innovatieSlimmer gebruik maken van intellectueel kapitaal: uit onderzoek van de ErasmusUniversiteit blijkt dat het succes van innovatie slechts voor 25% wordt bepaald doorinvesteringen in R&D; voor de overige 75% is innovatie afhankelijk van factoren op hetgebied van mens en organisatie.Is een ethisch bedrijfZe weet dat mensen en organisaties elkaar uitkiezen omdat hun relatie waarde creëert dooraan te sluiten bij wat die mensen zoeken. Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 54
  • 50. Your turn…• Identify a key issue for ABN AMRO and the most important but uncertain drivers of change.• Plot them on your impact-uncertainty matrix.• Pick two from the upper right hand corner Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 55
  • 51. Example Building the Scenario MatrixChoose two drivers that are mostuncertain and most critical in terms ofimpact on the chosen ABN AMRO key issue. Critical Uncertainty 1 Critical Uncertainty 2Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 56
  • 52. Building the Scenario Matrix Critical Uncertainty 1 World 2 World 1CriticalUncertainty 2 World 3 World 4 Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 57
  • 53. Thank you!Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 58

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