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The Future of Urbanization and Development
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The Future of Urbanization and Development

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The pace of urbanization throughout the world – and especially in the developing world – is challenging development donors and thinkers to find new solutions to tackling urban poverty, and urban ...

The pace of urbanization throughout the world – and especially in the developing world – is challenging development donors and thinkers to find new solutions to tackling urban poverty, and urban slum issues.

Devex recently hosted an online discussion with some of the top thinkers and policymakers standing at the crossroads where urbanization and development meet.

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  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
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  • Excellent material and discussion about the future of urbanization, which is gaining increased recognition as a major and serious issue for investment. Our firm, CPCS, through our new Washington office, will be able to pursue USAid funded urban initiatives. Thank you.
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  • Very useful reference and valuable information on urbanization and development and the relationship with informal settlements. Our organisation in Kenya, Urban Journalists Forum (UJF) will make good use of this material and the expert opinions. Thank you.
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  • Thanks for valuable information about the future urbanization.
    Youth Poverty, Slum issues, Carbon increasing and pollutions are major concerning issues on upcoming future urbanization.
    Tapan Kanti Dey
    Bangladesh
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  • Thank you for this invaluable info. Excellent reference!
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The Future of Urbanization and Development Presentation Transcript

  • 1. www.devex.com with Charles North, Steve Feldstein and Dan Hoornweg
  • 2. Steve Feldstein Director, Office of Policy USAID www.devex.com Charles North Senior Deputy Assistant Administrator USAID Daniel Hoornweg Professor, UOIT Chief Safety and Risk Officer, Province of Ontario Michael Igoe Global Development Reporter Devex 2
  • 3. www.devex.com 3
  • 4. We’re live-tweeting this webinar from @devexcareers. www.devex.com Follow #devwebinar 4
  • 5. › › Tech Support1, or Tech Support2 www.devex.com 5
  • 6. You may ask them at any time. › › Host, or Use the Q&A tool www.devex.com 6
  • 7. webinars.devex.com www.devex.com 7
  • 8. www.devex.com 8
  • 9. • • • • • • • www.devex.com 9
  • 10. www.devex.com 10
  • 11. www.devex.com 11
  • 12. 1. Support good governance and effective management systems 2. Encourage innovative and cost-effective service delivery 3. Support increases in investments in service delivery 4. Help countries and communities apply pro-poor service delivery models www.devex.com 12
  • 13. A cross-cutting vision of urban services to achieve larger USAID goals Stresses country-led, financially sustainable service delivery Leverages USAID’s expertise in G.I.S. and partnerships with local and state governments Responds to rapid urban growth and extreme poverty in cities www.devex.com 13
  • 14. www.devex.com 14
  • 15. www.devex.com 15
  • 16. www.devex.com 16
  • 17. www.devex.com 17
  • 18. Next Steps Toward Implementation • • • • • •
  • 19. Indian residents of collects drinking water from a tanker supplied by the municipal water works in Bolkapur Colony of Hyderabad. AFP PHOTO/Noah SEELAM water 000_Del284891 www.devex.com 19
  • 20. A technician adjusts an Internet router placed on a mast close to a set of papyrus-shaped columns, part of the Ancient Egyptian Luxor Temple complex erected by Ramses II, 1280 BC, on the east bank of the Nile River in the city. CRIS BOURONCLE / AFP 000_Nic194348 www.devex.com 20
  • 21. People walk up and down the Via Apia, the main street of the Rocinha shantytown, Brazil's largest favela ANTONIO SCORZA / AFP 000_Mvd6120235 www.devex.com 21
  • 22. An Indian farmer works on a sunflower field at the University of Agricultural Sciences (UAS) campus, in Bangalore on November 9, 2010.. AFP PHOTO/Dibyangshu SARKAR 000_Del424570 www.devex.com 22
  • 23. Sustainable Cities December 2013 Dan Hoornweg Professor and Jeffrey Boyce Research Chair, UOIT Chief Safety and Risk Officer, Province of Ontario
  • 24. Cities Count – Now More Than Ever
  • 25. Urban settlements are home to more than 50% of the world’s population 2 billion new urban residents by 2030, 3 billion by 2050 UN World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision
  • 26. Slum populations are increasing THE WORLD BANK
  • 27. Cities are adding 3,000,000 residents each week Shenzen 30 years ago Shenzen today
  • 28. Cities are drivers of economic growth WDR2009
  • 29. Source: SEED Magazine
  • 30. Enormous Impact of Cities – Good and Bad Population (Millions) GHG Emissions (M tCO2e) GDP (billion $ PPP) 1. China: 1,192 1. USA: 7,107 1. 100 Largest Cities: 14,928 2. India: 916 2. 100 Largest Cities: 4,263 2. USA: 14,202 3. 100 Largest Cities: 691.48 3. China: 4,058 3. C40 Cities: 8,781 4. C40 Cities: 393 4. C40 Cities: 2,364 4. China: 7,903 5. USA: 301 5. Russian Federation: 2,193 5. Japan: 4,354 6. Indonesia: 190 6. Japan: 1,374 6. Top 10 GHG Cities: 4,313 7. Brazil: 159 7. Top 10 GHG Cities: 1,367 7. India: 3,388 8. Russian Federation: 142 8. India: 1,214 8. Germany: 2,925 9. Top 10 GHG Cities: 136 9. Germany: 956 9. Russian Federation: 2,288 10. Japan: 128 10. Canada: 747 10. United Kingdom: 2,176
  • 31. Cities now in a league of their own THE WORLD BANK
  • 32. Urbanization and Megacities 1970 1 19 30 2 6 1,331,783,000 3,494,607,000 # Number of megacities in each region Total global urban population 6 6,398,291,000
  • 33. Emerging Global Challenges for Cities
  • 34. Growing urban challenges        Global financial crisis; slower growth, unemployment Climate change; uncertainty, urban vulnerability Energy security and price; volatility, efficiency Food and water security Decreasing densities – unsustainable growth Rate of growth; global geopolitical uncertainty Risk identification and communication Mumbai, India
  • 35. GHG emissions per capita (tCO2e/yr) 16 $12,275 High Income The Climate Change Challenge Tehran BEIJING Hanoi Chengdu Xian Shenyang Bandung Alexandria 8 WASHINGTON, DC Guangzhou DALLAS HOUSTON Phoenix 13.7 Johannesburg LOS ANGELES CHICAGOBOSTON MIAMI TORONTO Milan PHILADELPHIA BANGKOK Montreal NEW YORK Ankara ATHENS SAN FRANCISCO LONDON Berlin Algiers Moscow SHANGHAI TIANJIN Atlanta SYDNEY Detroit Melbourne St. Petersburg Kong Hong SINGAPORE Pusan CAPE TOWN MADRID Osaka Istanbul Jeddah Riyadh Monterrey Caracas Medellin Pune 4 Cairo CHONGQING B.Horizonte Fortaleza Bogota Jakarta Hydearabad Bangalore Ho Chi Minh Khartoum Recife Lahore Lima Chennai Mumbai Lagos Kinshasa 1 1500 Santiago Salvador 2 Guadalajara SEOUL BUENOS AIRES Brasilia P.Alegre TOKYO PARIS BARCELONA MEXICO CITY 450 ppm by 2050 RIO DE JANEIRO Karachi DELHI SAO PAULO AHMADABAD CALCUTTA 3000 6000 550 ppm by 2050 12000 GDP per capita ($) 24000 48000
  • 36. GHG Emissions are Unequally Distributed Within and Across Countries WDR2010
  • 37. Urban Form Determines a City’s Energy Efficiency Urban form and density significantly impact energy consumption. Source: Adopted from Kick the Habit: A UN Guide to Climate Neutrality
  • 38. the built-up area of Atlanta and Barcelona Barcelona Atlanta 2.5 mil people (1990) 4,280 km2 (built-up area) 2.8 mil people (1990) 162 km2 (built-up area)
  • 39. Urban design will impact the low-carbon futures of sustainable cities
  • 40. City lay-out matters: Superblocks increase congestion and increase walking distances New York Beijing
  • 41. Environmental Policies Also Matter 25  Carbon dioxide emissions per capita 1967 to 2010 US Carbon dioxide emissions (metric tons/capita) 20 15 Canada United Kingdom South Africa 10 Japan France Sweden 5 China Mexico Korea, Rep. Brazil India 0 15 25 Nigeria Bubble size corresponds to total carbon dioxide emissions (kilotons) 35 45 55 Urban population (% of total) 65 75 Source: World Development Indicators 85 95
  • 42. Marginal Abatement Cost Curves Source: McKinsey 2009.
  • 43. A New Urban Agenda Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
  • 44. Delhi streetscape De
  • 45. Need for New Urban Metrics • Infrastructure Rating Tool • Gross metropolitan product • Urban GHG emissions • Material flows (metabolism of cities) • Urban Risk Assessment • Global City Indicator Facility • Energy mix 46
  • 46. Amman, Jordan Urban Metabolism Total Radiation 1,012 ktCO2e Landfill Waste Greenhouse Gas Emissions 20.4 MJ/m2 669 kt Organic Waste Paper, Cardboard, Textiles 197 kt Plastics, Glass, Metal 10,256 ktCO2e 294 kt 136 kt Carbon Dioxide 2,906 ktCO2e Commercial, Institutional & Residential Manufacturing & Industry Cropland Wastewater Road Transport 983 ktCO2e Aviation & Marine T&D Losses Consumption 3,766 ktCO2e 770 GWh 92 ktCO2e 520 ktCO2e 1,008 ktCO2e 61 ktCO2e 1,029 ktCO2e Nitrous Oxide 42 kt Other Materials 9,136 ktCO2e Methane 180 MCM/a Water Supply 5,500 GWh 73 MCM/a Electricity Generation 6,270 GWh 34 GWh Renewables 2,744 GWh Fuel Oil 19 GWh Diesel Oil 3,472 GWh Natural Gas Natural Gas 2,143 TJ Fuel Oil LPG 12,998 TJ 1,910 TJ Kerosene 1,640 TJ Diesel Oil Gasoline 26,236 TJ 20,187 TJ Jet Kerosene 12,709 TJ Marine Fuel Oil 668 TJ Fossil Fuels Source: L. Sugar 2011.
  • 47. The Global Response to Climate Change Will Succeed—Or Fail—In Cities
  • 48. Rapid Growth is Difficult to Manage—But it Must be Planned For (at home and abroad)
  • 49. A New Urban Agenda  Build ‘Sustainable Cities’ – Emergence of Cities  More attention on Urban Form (and Management)  City metrics matter – need a systems approach  Energy and Cities  Better buildings  Transportation  Electricity generation  Smarter Financing and Policies  Leaders needed  New Partnerships (Outcome-Based Collaboration)  New and improved Engineering  Work with other professions  Linking Sectors (Technology) and Regions
  • 50. www.devex.com WITH Charles North, Steve Feldstein and Dan Hoornweg