Paul Nichols - Partnerships for Sustainable Development in South Asia
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  • Against the backdrop of developing a new ‘portfolio approach’ to investing aid for the DFAT South Asia Sustainable Development Investment Portfolio the team designed a tool that improves the likelihood of an investment portfolio reaching its development goal by supporting the investment management team to assess and set achievable development objectives and outcomes
  • Step one: in the first instance minimised the risk of these being unrealistic in framing, pace and extent of change by working with the practitioner and then working with key partners

Paul Nichols - Partnerships for Sustainable Development in South Asia Paul Nichols - Partnerships for Sustainable Development in South Asia Presentation Transcript

  • Development risk and development return Presentation ACFID- Universities Development Future Conference November 2013 Kate Hayes (Octo Consulting) Paul Nichols (Australian Aid Program, DFAT)
  • Introduction A tool that can be used to improve the feasibility of a program design by analysing and expressing the development risk and development return inherent to the selected strategy and approach – – It was developed to recognise that ‘development risk’ is inherent in any strategy (the risk of attaining results intended, given multiple variables and externalities) It recognises that incentives to ‘risk taking’ are important in generating new solutions to new problems, incentives to take reasonable risk are needed The “tool” is a: process: facilitates a heuristic process of refining ‘outcome indicators’ as measurements of progress against identified domains of change a product: a visual representation of the development risk/return profile of the program. An expression of the level of confidence that objectives will be met The tool is built around the assessment of the variables that will facilitate or constrain the achievement of outcomes (within a particular outcome domain ) through the lense of time – It is not a reasonable outcome domain if sufficient progress cannot be achieved within the funding/design timeframe, and predicting when it may be achieved is influenced by different factors, which the tool leads you to consider – The outcomes that will be achieved within a certain timeframe within a selected level of confidence are reflected on a graph as markers or milestones towards ultimate achievement of the overall outcome domain – Collective review and analysis of the graph enables the refinement of the outcomes to ensure a minimum yield on the investment
  • Summary of Outcome Domain One: 75% confidence Outcome Domain One: confident and co-operative decision making across jurisdictional borders for the effective and equitable management of shared water resources in South Asia 20 Outcome Thirteen: Increased consistency in national level policies and decision-making for management of water resources based on the best available science, across at least four countries in South Asia 18 Number of outcomes 16 Outcome Ten: Shared scientific understanding of the impacts of climate variability on the water resources at subbasin & basin scales 14 12 Outcome Fourteen: Enduring professional networks and relationships allowing opportunities for science development and in-country capacity building, based on common IWRM platforms and technologies 10 8 Outcome One: Transfer of bestpractice Australian policy, technology & science and sharing Aust. experience in IWRM in up to three demonstration sites 6 4 2 Outcome Seven: Steps taken towards establishment of regional institutions 0 0 20 40 60 80 Time in months 100 120 140 160 144 months = 12 years 180
  • The process Investment portfolio practitioners and managers have built up considerable development knowledge and expertise on the variables that influence the achievement of development goals. In complex situations, however, it is not always easy to fully utilise this collective knowledge. • • • • • This tool captures the experience and expertise of the team by seeking, through discussion, three time estimates for the likely achievement of each development outcome for each of the three portfolio outcome domains In arriving at each of the three estimates for each outcome the team must consider the variables of partner performance, changes in context (political; social; economic and environmental) and the donor’s own management & performance etc Each estimate will be expressed in months (to really force consideration) and will accommodate the following kind of thinking: “if all the variables behave as anticipated we should expect to meet the outcome under consideration in X months”. This constitutes the most likely estimate. “If some of the expected variables don’t eventuate and things go more smoothly then we could expect to meet the outcome in X months”. This constitutes the best case estimate; and “if a number of the variables were to be worse than expected and slow things down we would not expect to see a result before X months”. This constitutes the worst case estimate Then selecting a confidence level that is fit-for-purpose (delegate appetite for risk etc) these estimates are moderated to that confidence level and automatically plotted on a scatter graph - and collectively reviewed and assessed. The key question to ask is whether this reflects a reasonable yield for investment? The team then review and refine expectations accordingly and if necessary reset the outcomes to achieve a more reasonable yield within the given timeframe
  • The process: worksheet Investment Portfolio Goal: Maximum investment period (months) Outcome Domain One: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 South Asia's stability and prosperity outlook is positive as key supply side constraints to economic growth are addressed: cross-border water resource management; agricultural productivity and linkages to prduction chains; and cross-border energy access and trade 144 Confident and cooperative decision-making across jurisdictional borders for the effective and equitable management of shared water resources in South Asia Transfer of best-practice Australian policies, technology and science and sharing Australian experience in integrated water resources management in up to three demonstration sites Strengthened capacity of officials and independent technical experts in water resource management through communities of practice accessing technical skills and training in the region Initial implementation of repeatable and reliable tools and best practice scientific methodologies for management of water resources in at least three basins. Strengthened policy engagement and effective participation of civil society in water resources reform processes, with a focus on improving outcomes for women and girls Gender analysis of the opportunities and constraints for women’s involvement in reaching effective and equitable access to, and management of shared water resources in South Asia Postive bilateral and tri-lateral dialogue on shared wter resource management established Steps taken towards establishment of regional institutions Increased common usage of reliable and repeatable tools and scientific methodologies for the management of water resources including improved analysis and data sharing between countries Strengthened state and national level institutions for water resources management in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal. Scientific understanding of the impacts of climate variability on the water resources at sub-basin and basin scales Improved understanding of downstream impacts of hydropower development Improved cooperation on disaster risk management across borders for water resources Increased consistency in national level policies and decision-making for management of water Length of time estimates (months) Best case Most likely case Worst case Number of months to be "X"% confident in completing the target 12 24 36 26.9 24 36 48 38.9 24 36 48 38.9 36 48 60 50.9 36 48 60 50.9 36 36 48 60 60 72 50.9 62.5 48 60 72 62.9 48 60 72 62.9 48 72 84 74.5 48 60 60 72 72 84 62.9 74.9 72 84 120 93.4 Value of X (e.g. 85%): 75%
  • Outcome Domain One Number of outcomes met VS Elapsed time(months) with 75% confidence 20 18 153 Number of outcomes met 153 16 153 136 14 126 93 12 75 75 10 0-4 Years 63 63 8 4-8 Years 63 8-12 Years 63 6 51 12-16 Years 51 4 51 39 2 39 27 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Elapsed time (months) 120 140 160
  • Summary of Outcome Domain One: 75% confidence Outcome Domain One: confident and co-operative decision making across jurisdictional borders for the effective and equitable management of shared water resources in South Asia 20 Outcome Thirteen: Increased consistency in national level policies and decision-making for management of water resources based on the best available science, across at least four countries in South Asia 18 Number of outcomes 16 Outcome Ten: Shared scientific understanding of the impacts of climate variability on the water resources at subbasin & basin scales 14 12 Outcome Fourteen: Enduring professional networks and relationships allowing opportunities for science development and in-country capacity building, based on common IWRM platforms and technologies 10 8 Outcome One: Transfer of bestpractice Australian policy, technology & science and sharing Aust. experience in IWRM in up to three demonstration sites 6 4 2 Outcome Seven: Steps taken towards establishment of regional institutions 0 0 20 40 60 80 Time in months 100 120 140 160 144 months = 12 years 180
  • Portfolio Investment Summary: 75% Summary of outcomes per outcome domain (Note that the following summary is generated based upon the chosen confidence level) 20 18 Number of outcomes met per objective 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 144 months = 12 years 2 0 0 20 40 Objective 1 60 80 100 Elapsed time (months) Objective 2 120 140 160 Objective 3 180