04 November 2013
MNI CHINA CONSUMER SENTIMENT
EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. BEIJING TIME, 04 NOVEMBER 2013
China Consumer Indicator Rises to 95.7 in October from
92.4 in September
Personal Finances Lead Rise
The MNI China Consumer Indicator rose for the third consecutive month in October,
led by a significant improvement in Current and Expected Personal Finances.
The headline indicator rose to 95.7 in October from 92.4 in September, posting the
highest reading since June as both current and future conditions increased.
The recent rise in confidence mirrors the pick-up in the economy seen since the end
of July and puts sentiment above the average of 93.9 for the past year and also the
series average of 95.1.
October’s gain in Consumer Confidence was led by continued improvement in
confidence in both East China and Middle/West China, with the latter showing the
largest increase. Among the three major cities, confidence rose in Guangzhou and
Shanghai but fell sharply in Beijing.
Perceptions of current business conditions improved for the third consecutive month
in October to the highest since March.
The Employment Indicator rose strongly in October moving further above the
breakeven level, and leaving it in-line with the higher levels seen during the first half of
The Car Purchase Indicator also rose in October as consumers’ willingness to buy a
car rose to the highest level for three years, a reflection of the improvement in
Commenting on the data, MNI Indicators Chief Economist Philip Uglow said, “A
significant number of respondents felt much better about their finances in October and
there was a strong improvement in employment expectations.”
“The rise in confidence over the past few months is further evidence that economic
growth has stepped up a gear since July,” he added.
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Notes to Editors
Please source all information to MNI Indicators.
The MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey is a wide ranging monthly survey of
consumer confidence across eastern, central and western China.
Data is collected through computer aided telephone interviews (CATI), with each
interviewee selected randomly by computer. At least 1,000 interviews are conducted
each month from 30 first, second and third tier cities.
The survey adopts a similar methodology to the University of Michigan survey of U.S.
The main MNI China Consumer Indicator is derived from five questions, two on
current conditions and three on future expectations:
1) Current personal financial situation compared to a year ago
2) Current willingness to buy major household items
3) Personal financial situation one year from now
4) Overall business conditions one year from now
5) Overall business conditions for the next 5 years
The China Consumer Indicated is based to April 2007 = 100
Indicators relating to specific questions in the report are diffusion indices with 100
representing a neutral level, meaning positive and negative answers are equal.
Values above 100 indicate increasing positivity while values below show increasing
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