MNI China Business Indicator November 2013


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MNI China Business Indicator November 2013

  1. 1. London, 20 November 2013 MNI CHINA BUSINESS SENTIMENT EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.45 A.M. BEIJING TIME, 20 NOVEMBER 2013 MNI China Business Indicator Falls to 53.3 in November from 55.3 in October Media Release New Orders Remain Firm The MNI China Business Indicator eased to 53.3 in November from 55.3 in October, causing the three month trend to fall to the lowest for 12 months. Both New Orders and Production Indicators also fell back in November, but New Orders in particular remained firm, pointing to a more sustained positive impact from the mini-stimulus measures announced after the July State Council meeting. Companies continued to remain optimistic about business conditions over the next three months with the Future Expectations Indicator increasing to 57.9 in November from 57.6 in the previous month. Hopes had been running high, both domestically and internationally, that the “third plenum” of the Chinese Communist party’s 18th Central Committee would unveil a series of reforms after its meeting in November, the results of which were not known by the time the survey concluded. An increased number of firms reported that the level of the exchange rate was hurting business in November, as the yuan hit a new high against the US dollar. Firms’ Financial Position worsened in November amid a further deterioration in credit conditions and a rise in the cost of credit. Commenting on the data, MNI Indicators Chief Economist Philip Uglow said, “While firms reported a weakening in overall business conditions, other demand indicators such as New Orders and Production held up better.” “Firms, though, face tougher credit conditions and there is a question about whether the recent pick-up following the mini-stimulus will be sustained. Reforms announced after the third plenum could, however, support business confidence ahead,” he added. - ENDS - | | @MNIIndicators
  2. 2. Page 2 For further information, please contact: Naomi Kim, Public Relations +1 212 669 6459 Editorial Content: Philip Uglow, Chief Economist, MNI Indicators Media Release Notes to Editors Please source all information to MNI Indicators. MNI China Business Sentiment is a monthly poll of Chinese business executives at companies listed on either the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges. Companies are a mix of manufacturing and service sector firms. With over five years of history, the survey tracks and predicts Chinese economic conditions and is an important leading indicator of GDP. Respondents are asked their opinion on whether a particular business activity has increased, decreased or remained the same compared with the previous month as well as their expectations for three months ahead, e.g. is Production higher/same/lower compared with a month ago? Diffusion indicators are then calculated by adding the percentage share of positive responses to half the percentage of those respondents reporting no change. An indicator reading above 50 shows expansion, below 50 indicates contraction and a result of 50 means no change. Data is collected through computer aided telephone interviews (CATI) and around 200 companies are surveyed each month. Series which show a seasonal pattern are seasonally adjusted using the US Census Bureau’s X12 seasonal adjustment program. Seasonal factors are calculated annually. About MNI Indicators MNI Indicators, part of Deutsche Börse Group, offers unique macro-economic data and insight to businesses and the investment community. We produce data and intelligence that is unbiased, pertinent and responsive. Our data moves markets. For more information, visit our website at | | @MNIIndicators