Constitutional Reform in Hong KongROUND THREEHONG KONG TRANSITION PROJECTJune 2013
Survey Objectives:• Establish baselines before next round on:– Views on current governance system– Public opinion on refor...
January 2013• 920 permanent residents randomly contacted bytelephone– +/- 3 points range of error at 95% confidence interv...
3 FUNDAMENTAL SHIFTS→from circumstances of Rounds 1 (2005) & 2 (2010)• Inter-generational Transfer Shift (1)– From Old > Y...
Generational Shift →• 1 July 2013 marks 16 years from 1997 handover• 1 July 2014 (Occupy Central deadline for “genuinedemo...
SOURCE: Carine Lai, LouisaMitchell, Michael DeGolyer,The Changing Faces of HongKong: “A Graphical Summaryof Women’s Status...
Low birthrate, high aging rate crisis• Shifting burden of care is burdening families innew ways• New forms of stress/unequ...
Average Adjusted income for Ages 20-29,Census and By-census (1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011)
Approximately what percentage of yourpersonal income do you contribute toyour parents?BY Generation
Personal income to parents byMonthly Family Income
Effect of SHIFTS onIDENTITY
First Post-1997/Post-1841 Generation< 30 year olds were <13 in 1997. Too young tounderstand colonial Hong Kong.First time ...
National Education Effect?“How would you describe yourself” byOccupationNo studentchose“Chinese” ID
Changes in identity
BirthplaceHong Kong for Hong Kong born, but means something different now
ID by Generation
Which of these do you consider themost important to you personally tosee protected and promoted?
Most important to promote & protectBY Generation
How does the celebration of 1stOctober National Day make you feel?
National Day feelings BY ID
Effect of SHIFTS onPolitical ID
Which parties protect/represent bestby Age60:40 pro-democracy/pro-establishment splitamong voters NOW isnot sustained amon...
For the Establishment• Demographics are running against theestablishment parties• Stalling reform does not improve theirpo...
Satisfaction with performance of CYLeung by Generational group
How much do you believe CY Leung has:
How much do you believe Leung has:Protected HK’s interest in nationalmatters BY Generation
How much do you believe Leung: Willimplement a fair system of nomination anddirect election for CE in 2017 BY Generation
How much do you trust Chief ExecutiveLeung to handle relations with:
How much do you trust CE Leung tohandle relations with: People likeyourself BY Generation
How much do you trust CE Leung to handlerelations with: People like yourself BYParental support paid
Are you currently worried or not aboutthese specific aspects affecting you,your family or Hong Kong? (Jan 2013)
In your view, what is the most urgentissue that should be addressed by theChief Executive?
Effect of Shifts on Reform
System Reform . . .• Is more than economics and elections• Political-Economic reform must achieve:– Effective shareholder ...
Reform Principles & Options• For more effective input• Legitimating outcomes• Effectuating implementation• Monitoring gove...
Support/oppose directly electing theChief Executive (Trend chart)
Support/Oppose direct election of allLegco seats (10 Year Trend)
Summary Table of Recoded support oropposition on reform options
Would you support/oppose: Keep the CEElection Committee at 1200 members aspresent and make it the nominating committeefor ...
Would you support/oppose: Reform FCs byeliminating corporate voting and equalizing, asmuch as possible, the number of vote...
Would you support/oppose: AbolishFCs for Legco but keep them for the CENominating Committee
Would you support/oppose the following:Abolish FCs completely in all forms?
Do you currently support or oppose:Abolishing all FCs, both traditional andnew DC FC seats
Do you currently support or oppose:Abolishing only the traditional smallcircle 30 FC seats
Do you currently support/oppose: Replacing the 30small circle FC seats with 30 more seats elected byeveryone like the 5 ne...
Do you currently support/oppose: Abolishing thesplit voting system in Legco which requires majorityvotes in both the FCs a...
If all FC seats are directly geographic elected,would you support or oppose: A minimumrequired percentage of votes to get ...
Would you support/oppose: CEcandidates be allowed to be members ofa party?
Which party represents best bySupport/oppose CE candidates allowed to bemembers of a party NO DIFFERENCE BY PARTY
Which party represents best by How much do youbelieve CY Leung: Will implement a fair system ofnomination and direct elect...
Which party represents best bySupport direct election of ChiefExecutive
Which party represents best bySupport direct election all Legcomembers
Which party represents best byAbolish FCs completely in all forms
Which party represents best byAbolish FCs for Legco, but keep for CEelection
Which party represents best by Keep present 1200member CE Election Committee as NominatingCommittee, no change
Which party represents best by Do youthink gov makes policies fairly
Fairness in policy making BY Generation
Fairness of policy making BY WorkSector
Research conducted by the Hong Kong Transition ProjectDetails of methods and earlier reports available at: http://www.hktp...
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Round 3 of Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong. A study by the Hong Kong Transition Project

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Round 3 of Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong. A study by the Hong Kong Transition Project

  1. 1. Constitutional Reform in Hong KongROUND THREEHONG KONG TRANSITION PROJECTJune 2013
  2. 2. Survey Objectives:• Establish baselines before next round on:– Views on current governance system– Public opinion on reform options– Views by party, identity, interests (occupation,ownership) and demographics (age, sex,education, income, etc)Part of Hong Kong Transition Project’s long termstudy of public policy and political developmentsince 1982
  3. 3. January 2013• 920 permanent residents randomly contacted bytelephone– +/- 3 points range of error at 95% confidence interval• Research conducted by Hong Kong TransitionProject, supported by a grant from theCommunity Development InitiativeHong Kong Transition Project
  4. 4. 3 FUNDAMENTAL SHIFTS→from circumstances of Rounds 1 (2005) & 2 (2010)• Inter-generational Transfer Shift (1)– From Old > Young: Education/Healthcare– To Young> Old:Retirement/Geriatric care• Identity Shift (2) as part of Generational Shift (3)– From Hong Kong person > Chinese/Chinese HongKonger– From Chinese = Patriotic Communist > Chinese =National/Cultural Patriot• 1st Gen since 1841 to grow up in Hong Kong,China—with no effective memory of foreign rule
  5. 5. Generational Shift →• 1 July 2013 marks 16 years from 1997 handover• 1 July 2014 (Occupy Central deadline for “genuinedemocracy” reforms) = 17 years• 2017 Chief Executive election = 20 years• Few under age 30 remember pre-1997circumstances as lived experience. It is “history”to them.• Lived experience of this generation is: Bearingburden of the past, not enjoying its legacy norbelieving in steady progress because they haveseen it happen
  6. 6. SOURCE: Carine Lai, LouisaMitchell, Michael DeGolyer,The Changing Faces of HongKong: “A Graphical Summaryof Women’s Status, 1991-2011” (Feb 2013) TheWomen’s Foundation/CivicExchange http://www.civic-exchange.org/wp/201302gender_en/ p.17By 2031, % of populationover 60 will rise from 13%in 2011 to 26%+
  7. 7. Low birthrate, high aging rate crisis• Shifting burden of care is burdening families innew ways• New forms of stress/unequal forms of stress onfamilies, caregivers and rising generation. Noparents = no stress. No children = not enoughhelp. High stress on fewer children.• “Family friendly” policy does not recognize“family” is no longer parents with children; it ischildren with parents• Intervening variable on satisfaction and fairnessof policy making questions
  8. 8. Average Adjusted income for Ages 20-29,Census and By-census (1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011)
  9. 9. Approximately what percentage of yourpersonal income do you contribute toyour parents?BY Generation
  10. 10. Personal income to parents byMonthly Family Income
  11. 11. Effect of SHIFTS onIDENTITY
  12. 12. First Post-1997/Post-1841 Generation< 30 year olds were <13 in 1997. Too young tounderstand colonial Hong Kong.First time over 60s and under 30s equal in a survey
  13. 13. National Education Effect?“How would you describe yourself” byOccupationNo studentchose“Chinese” ID
  14. 14. Changes in identity
  15. 15. BirthplaceHong Kong for Hong Kong born, but means something different now
  16. 16. ID by Generation
  17. 17. Which of these do you consider themost important to you personally tosee protected and promoted?
  18. 18. Most important to promote & protectBY Generation
  19. 19. How does the celebration of 1stOctober National Day make you feel?
  20. 20. National Day feelings BY ID
  21. 21. Effect of SHIFTS onPolitical ID
  22. 22. Which parties protect/represent bestby Age60:40 pro-democracy/pro-establishment splitamong voters NOW isnot sustained amongteenagers
  23. 23. For the Establishment• Demographics are running against theestablishment parties• Stalling reform does not improve theirposition• Youth are stressed and highly volatile• Demographics and economics are raising thatstress and volatility UNLESS action is taken toaddress its sources
  24. 24. Satisfaction with performance of CYLeung by Generational group
  25. 25. How much do you believe CY Leung has:
  26. 26. How much do you believe Leung has:Protected HK’s interest in nationalmatters BY Generation
  27. 27. How much do you believe Leung: Willimplement a fair system of nomination anddirect election for CE in 2017 BY Generation
  28. 28. How much do you trust Chief ExecutiveLeung to handle relations with:
  29. 29. How much do you trust CE Leung tohandle relations with: People likeyourself BY Generation
  30. 30. How much do you trust CE Leung to handlerelations with: People like yourself BYParental support paid
  31. 31. Are you currently worried or not aboutthese specific aspects affecting you,your family or Hong Kong? (Jan 2013)
  32. 32. In your view, what is the most urgentissue that should be addressed by theChief Executive?
  33. 33. Effect of Shifts on Reform
  34. 34. System Reform . . .• Is more than economics and elections• Political-Economic reform must achieve:– Effective shareholder input,– More widely owned decisions,– Efficient implementation of decisions,– followed by scientific evaluation andindependent monitoring,– subject to review and public feedback
  35. 35. Reform Principles & Options• For more effective input• Legitimating outcomes• Effectuating implementation• Monitoring governance
  36. 36. Support/oppose directly electing theChief Executive (Trend chart)
  37. 37. Support/Oppose direct election of allLegco seats (10 Year Trend)
  38. 38. Summary Table of Recoded support oropposition on reform options
  39. 39. Would you support/oppose: Keep the CEElection Committee at 1200 members aspresent and make it the nominating committeefor candidates for direct elections in 2017?
  40. 40. Would you support/oppose: Reform FCs byeliminating corporate voting and equalizing, asmuch as possible, the number of voters ineach constituency?
  41. 41. Would you support/oppose: AbolishFCs for Legco but keep them for the CENominating Committee
  42. 42. Would you support/oppose the following:Abolish FCs completely in all forms?
  43. 43. Do you currently support or oppose:Abolishing all FCs, both traditional andnew DC FC seats
  44. 44. Do you currently support or oppose:Abolishing only the traditional smallcircle 30 FC seats
  45. 45. Do you currently support/oppose: Replacing the 30small circle FC seats with 30 more seats elected byeveryone like the 5 new DC seats
  46. 46. Do you currently support/oppose: Abolishing thesplit voting system in Legco which requires majorityvotes in both the FCs and GCs for a bill oramendment to pass
  47. 47. If all FC seats are directly geographic elected,would you support or oppose: A minimumrequired percentage of votes to get a seat, ofsay, 10%, like in Germany?
  48. 48. Would you support/oppose: CEcandidates be allowed to be members ofa party?
  49. 49. Which party represents best bySupport/oppose CE candidates allowed to bemembers of a party NO DIFFERENCE BY PARTY
  50. 50. Which party represents best by How much do youbelieve CY Leung: Will implement a fair system ofnomination and direct election for CE in 2017
  51. 51. Which party represents best bySupport direct election of ChiefExecutive
  52. 52. Which party represents best bySupport direct election all Legcomembers
  53. 53. Which party represents best byAbolish FCs completely in all forms
  54. 54. Which party represents best byAbolish FCs for Legco, but keep for CEelection
  55. 55. Which party represents best by Keep present 1200member CE Election Committee as NominatingCommittee, no change
  56. 56. Which party represents best by Do youthink gov makes policies fairly
  57. 57. Fairness in policy making BY Generation
  58. 58. Fairness of policy making BY WorkSector
  59. 59. Research conducted by the Hong Kong Transition ProjectDetails of methods and earlier reports available at: http://www.hktp.orgHong Kong Transition Project Research since 1988 has been funded by RGCgrants, grants from National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, CivicExchange, The Women’s Foundation and many other local and internationalNGOs, and Community Development FoundationThe Hong Kong Transition Project is a non-partisan, multi-disciplinary,multi-national academic research project committed to goodgovernance and the highest standard public policy research

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