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A presentation made by Keith Cressman, FAO Senior Locust Forecasting Officer, at the WMO/FAO International Conference of Adaptation to Climate Change and Food Security in West Asia and North Africa …

A presentation made by Keith Cressman, FAO Senior Locust Forecasting Officer, at the WMO/FAO International Conference of Adaptation to Climate Change and Food Security in West Asia and North Africa (Kuwait City, 13-16 Nov 2011). The presentation gives an overview of Desert Locust population dynamics, climatological effects and adaptation strategies.

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  • 1. 0 2 6 12 16 months
  • 2. 5040302010 0 1860 70 80 90 1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 10
  • 3. Mauritania Niger Mali Sudan solitarious gregarious
  • 4. frontlinesecondaryinvasion www.fao.org/ag/locusts
  • 5. Africa is warmer than100 years ago +4˚C2-4˚C increase by 2050s +3˚Cgreatest warming along Sahara edge (0.5˚C/decade) +2˚Cwarming increases the spatial variability of rainfallsubstantial and sustained decline in rainfall (Sahel)decrease: Sahel (Mar-Aug), Sahara (Dec-May) -0.25-0increase: Sahel (Jun-Aug), Sahara (Sep-Feb) 0-0.25 0.25-0.5Sahara will turn green like 12,000 years ago mm/dayincrease in the intensity of high rainfall events IPCC3
  • 6. Habitat the Sahara is in retreat in the past 15 years (satellite imagery)Predictions rainfall under climate change scenarios in the Sahara varies and lacks consensus half the models follow a wetter trend, half follow a drier high uncertainty over Sahara due to few stations & poor quality data regional models + satellite + stations may offer more precise estimates
  • 7. Ice Age Holocene Present (cold, dry) (warm, wet) desert forest18,000 years ago 8,000 4,500 500 5
  • 8. LL H H IPCC AR4
  • 9.
  • 10. Keith CressmanSenior Locust Forecasting OfficerRome, Italykeith.cressman@fao.orgwww.fao.org/ag/locusts