We were consumers – the next 15 years

We were consumers – the next 15 years NCSC Conference Riga 28 April 2009 Aleksi Neuvonen Demos Helsinki www.demos.fi

“ Democratizing” consumer society

“ need saturation [...] the textile mills of this country can produce all the cloth needed in six months’ operation each year” – James J. Davis, US secretary of labor (1927)

It is about who I am

2009 1960 1970 1980 1950 2000 1990 Surplus production Consumer electronics boom long-tail markets Niche markets Marketing & new needs Short history of consumption

What money can’t buy

In need of more space? Too much useless stuff? Get rid of it – we can help you

Source: General Society Survey Development of wealth and life satisfaction in the US

Temperature Population CO2 GDP Tropical forrest loss Water consumption Extinction rate Motor vehicles Paper consumption Over fished stocks Ozone layer loss Foreign investments

Energy consumption

Number of cars

Global flow of goods

Animal protein consumption

CO2 emission

“ Forecasting” starts from today and doesn't offer views to fruitful possible futures

Backcasting

2008 2040 2030 2020 2050 CO2 -90% CO2 -30%

But dears, how?

We have to put restrictions and regulations on consumption No! Do you know what followed when they started restricting things in Soviet union, Germany, North Korea and Burma?

low carbon society cost on carbon, market incentives 2009 climate challenge engaging, behavioral change accepted forms of regulation

4 scenarios to year 2023

Strong Global Regulation

No Global Regulation

Society Directed by Common Responsibility Atomistic Society Awakening to Planetarism 15 Years More Doctor Local Solutions Da Capo

15 years more No agreement on climate nor other global resources Apathy after failed Copenhagen summit Fierce competition Ecological consumption a niche market New start towards global agreement after 2020

Doctor local solutions No global agreement Strong local communities Peer-pressure and surveillence on consumption patterns Ecological forerunner regions prosper Everything is local

Awakening to planetarism Global ecumenical movement for climate agreement Strong post-Kyoto agreement Global government Big global infrastucture projects Rapid change in consumption patterns Shared commitment on the level of individuals

Da Capo Personal carbon credits 1950’s sense of responsibility Web 2.0 surveilence on consumption Large individual freedom New local solutions

Realistically: what next?

Engage 1st Explain 2nd

1973: California

50-70's I need wellfare state 80-90's I want consumer society, individualims 2000's I can knowledge-based society 2010's We can peer-to-peer society “ We-Can” aikakausi

“ I call it the politics of "I can". It represents a desire for people to not just have access to material goods, but greater power, control and choice over all aspects of their life, from the jobs they do, the relationships they enter, the services they use, the products they buy. [...] It is an age where people want to be players not just spectators . [...] ‘ Web 2.0 allows the spirit of “I can” to transcend the limits of consumerism, and become a mass movement for cooperation . “ David Miliband: “We can -politics”

Because it’s about you! Shopping is about people, places and experiences About you.

Global resource consumption 2008 Earth’s biocapacity Month

Earth’s biocapacity Month Global resource consumption 2008

Evolution of consumerism 50~70‘s I need welfare state 80~90's I want consumer society, individualization 2000‘s I can knowledge-based society 2010's We can peer-to-peer society It is an age where people want to be players, not just spectators