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Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
Urban planning and futures
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Urban planning and futures

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Lecture given to the architecture masters programme students of Tampere University of Technology on October 4th 2012. The presentation depicts key concepts of futures and foresight, theoretical …

Lecture given to the architecture masters programme students of Tampere University of Technology on October 4th 2012. The presentation depicts key concepts of futures and foresight, theoretical background of futures studies and some examples on scenario planning.

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  • 1. On Futures studiesAleksi NeuvonenDemos Helsinkialeksi.neuvonen@demos.fiTwitter: Leksis
  • 2. 1.Futures studies - what?
  • 3. 1.Futures studies - what?2.Futures studies - why?
  • 4. 1.Futures studies - what?2.Futures studies - why?3.Futures studies - how?
  • 5. 1.Futures studies - what?2.Futures studies - why?3.Futures studies - how?4.Examples
  • 6. What?
  • 7. predictive (probable futures)
  • 8. predictive (probable futures)explorative (possible futures)
  • 9. predictive (probable futures)explorative (possible futures)normative (desirable futures)
  • 10. PoliciesEconomySocialTechnologyEnvironmentCulture
  • 11. PoliciesEconomySocial Several domains,Technology Systemic viewEnvironmentCulture
  • 12. Scenarios are always part of astrategic process.
  • 13. "A hypothetical sequence of eventsconstructed for the purpose offocusing attention on causalprocesses and decision points ." Herman Kahn & Antony Wiener: The Year 2000. A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years (1967, s. 6)
  • 14. Why?
  • 15. 1.Primary forecast (the trend);2.Secondary forecasts (alternative reactions); and3.Tertiary forecast (preferences of the decision-maker) de Jouvenell
  • 16. Congestion, current streets 100 75Primary forecast 50 25 0 2000 2010 2020 2030
  • 17. Current plan New ring road Undergroud 100 75Secondary forecast 50 25 0 2000 2010 2020 2030
  • 18. Current plan New ring road Congestion charge 100 75Tertiary forecast 50 25 0 2000 2010 2020 2030
  • 19. There are always ”black swans”Scenarios help to take them into account.
  • 20. We are capable of anticipating the future because ofthe...
  • 21. We are capable of anticipating the future because ofthe... 1.investments we have agreed on
  • 22. We are capable of anticipating the future because ofthe... 1.investments we have agreed on 2.hopes and plans people individually and collectively have
  • 23. We are capable of anticipating the future because ofthe... 1.investments we have agreed on 2.hopes and plans people individually and collectively have 3.slow changing demographic structures
  • 24. We are capable of anticipating the future because ofthe... 1.investments we have agreed on 2.hopes and plans people individually and collectively have 3.slow changing demographic structures 4.persisting habits and traditions.
  • 25. We are capable of anticipating the future because ofthe... 1.investments we have agreed on 2.hopes and plans people individually and collectively have 3.slow changing demographic structures 4.persisting habits and traditions. 5.cyclical and linear processes in the nature.
  • 26. However, future cannot be predicted, because ofthe ...
  • 27. However, future cannot be predicted, because ofthe ... 1. pure chance
  • 28. However, future cannot be predicted, because ofthe ... 1. pure chance 2. chaotic processes
  • 29. However, future cannot be predicted, because ofthe ... 1. pure chance 2. chaotic processes 3. new information constantly shapes beliefs, attitudes and behavior
  • 30. However, future cannot be predicted, because ofthe ... 1. pure chance 2. chaotic processes 3. new information constantly shapes beliefs, attitudes and behavior 4. teknological innovation alters practices.
  • 31. Therefore:
  • 32. Therefore: 1.Lifestyles change
  • 33. Therefore: 1.Lifestyles change 2.Viability of technologies change
  • 34. Therefore: 1.Lifestyles change 2.Viability of technologies change 3.Strucutures of economy and business change
  • 35. Therefore: 1.Lifestyles change 2.Viability of technologies change 3.Strucutures of economy and business change 4.Capability for investments change
  • 36. Therefore: 1.Lifestyles change 2.Viability of technologies change 3.Strucutures of economy and business change 4.Capability for investments change 5.Political priorities change
  • 37. How?
  • 38. 1. Define the domain of the study
  • 39. 1. Define the domain of the study2. Define rigid factors and persisting structures
  • 40. 1. Define the domain of the study2. Define rigid factors and persisting structures3. Understand mega-trends and long-lasting values
  • 41. 1. Define the domain of the study2. Define rigid factors and persisting structures3. Understand mega-trends and long-lasting values4. Define conflicting trends and their unexpected consequences
  • 42. 1. Define the domain of the study2. Define rigid factors and persisting structures3. Understand mega-trends and long-lasting values4. Define conflicting trends and their unexpected consequences5. Check the issues you don’t know enough about that are usually thought to be almost self-evident
  • 43. 1. Define the domain of the study2. Define rigid factors and persisting structures3. Understand mega-trends and long-lasting values4. Define conflicting trends and their unexpected consequences5. Check the issues you don’t know enough about that are usually thought to be almost self-evident6. Trace early signs of change, evaluate their possible impact
  • 44. 1. Define the domain of the study2. Define rigid factors and persisting structures3. Understand mega-trends and long-lasting values4. Define conflicting trends and their unexpected consequences5. Check the issues you don’t know enough about that are usually thought to be almost self-evident6. Trace early signs of change, evaluate their possible impact7. Create coherent, logical and surprising scenarios or states of futures
  • 45. Discuss:
  • 46. Discuss:1. What are the rigid factors and persisting structures that shape your project assignment.
  • 47. Discuss:1. What are the rigid factors and persisting structures that shape your project assignment.2. What trends affecting your assignment could be conflicting with each other or with rigid structures?
  • 48. What futures bring to planning process? Business LifestylesInnovations
  • 49. What futures bring to planning process? Business Define topics Foqtv" qgu g eckrt eu e LifestylesInnovations
  • 50. What futures bring to planning process? Business Define topics Foqtv" qgu g eckrt eu e Lifestyles Define norms &Innovations goals Planning
  • 51. What futures bring to planning process? Business Define topics Foqtv" qgu g eckrt eu e Lifestyles Define norms &Innovations goals Planning Define tools & measures Infrastructure
  • 52. What futures bring to planning process? Business Define topics Foqtv" qgu g eckrt eu e Lifestyles Define norms &Innovations goals Planning Define tools & measuresFutures, foresight Infrastructure
  • 53. What futures bring to planning process? Business Define topics Foqtv" qgu g eckrt eu e Lifestyles Define norms &Innovations e: s ng m goals ch a dig of pa ra on etin ti p g Planning re ta om ep bate,c tr e In Define tools & bl ic d measures puFutures, foresight Infrastructure
  • 54. Transition management Normative vision Experiments 2012 2032 2052
  • 55. What futures bring planning process? Business LifestylesInnovations
  • 56. What futures bring planning process? Business Define topics Democratic process LifestylesInnovations
  • 57. What futures bring planning process? Business Define topics Democratic process Lifestyles Define norms &Innovations goals Planning
  • 58. What futures bring planning process? Business Define topics Democratic process Lifestyles Define norms &Innovations goals Planning Define tools & measures Infrastructure
  • 59. What futures bring planning process? Business Define topics Democratic process Lifestyles Define norms &Innovations goals Planning Define tools & measuresFutures, foresight Infrastructure
  • 60. What futures bring planning process? Business Define topics Democratic process Lifestyles Define norms &Innovations goals Planning change es ools for ng regim New t s, emergi Define tools & promisin g practice measuresFutures, foresight Infrastructure
  • 61. Why is futures studies essential to urban planning?
  • 62. Why is futures studies essential to urban planning?1.From top-down planning to interaction of vast number ofstakeholders → facilitating communication
  • 63. Why is futures studies essential to urban planning?1.From top-down planning to interaction of vast number ofstakeholders → facilitating communication2.Increased probability of dis-continuities in societal development →visions of paradigm beyond transformation
  • 64. Why is futures studies essential to urban planning?1.From top-down planning to interaction of vast number ofstakeholders → facilitating communication2.Increased probability of dis-continuities in societal development →visions of paradigm beyond transformation3.Re-definition of societal goals → what brings about happiness inpost-materialistic society with resource constrains
  • 65. Why is futures studies essential to urban planning?1.From top-down planning to interaction of vast number ofstakeholders → facilitating communication2.Increased probability of dis-continuities in societal development →visions of paradigm beyond transformation3.Re-definition of societal goals → what brings about happiness inpost-materialistic society with resource constrains4.Need to conjoin different types of resources into planning process(in addition to capital of municipalities and real-estate companies)
  • 66. Why is futures studies essential to urban planning?1.From top-down planning to interaction of vast number ofstakeholders → facilitating communication2.Increased probability of dis-continuities in societal development →visions of paradigm beyond transformation3.Re-definition of societal goals → what brings about happiness inpost-materialistic society with resource constrains4.Need to conjoin different types of resources into planning process(in addition to capital of municipalities and real-estate companies)Discuss: What is the relevance of these challenges to your projectassignment? Which are the most relevant ones?
  • 67. Discuss:
  • 68. Discuss:1. What are the rigid factors and persisting structures that shape your project assignment.
  • 69. Discuss:1. What are the rigid factors and persisting structures that shape your project assignment.2. What trends affecting your assignment could be conflicting with each other or with rigid structures?
  • 70. Example:Greater Helsinki Vision 2050
  • 71. What futures can offer for urban planning?
  • 72. What futures can offer for urban planning?1. Systemic approach on process of socio-technical change, including social and economic drivers
  • 73. What futures can offer for urban planning?1. Systemic approach on process of socio-technical change, including social and economic drivers2. Way of managing parallel processes in long time-scales
  • 74. What futures can offer for urban planning?1. Systemic approach on process of socio-technical change, including social and economic drivers2. Way of managing parallel processes in long time-scales3. Systematic exploration of alternatives → index of opportunities discovered, available to be reconsidered
  • 75. What futures can offer for urban planning?1. Systemic approach on process of socio-technical change, including social and economic drivers2. Way of managing parallel processes in long time-scales3. Systematic exploration of alternatives → index of opportunities discovered, available to be reconsidered4. Explication of broad societal goals → displaying different ways of bringing about these goals
  • 76. What futures can offer for urban planning?1. Systemic approach on process of socio-technical change, including social and economic drivers2. Way of managing parallel processes in long time-scales3. Systematic exploration of alternatives → index of opportunities discovered, available to be reconsidered4. Explication of broad societal goals → displaying different ways of bringing about these goals5. Tool for engaging different stakeholders to the planning process.
  • 77. Decide on approach, define domains to be prioritized and covered Approach Normative Normative Predictive Explorative preserving transformativeDomain of goals Culture Macro economyPhysical structures Industries,public organisations Lifestyles, households
  • 78. Two approaches for creatingfutures scenarios 1.Forecasting 2.Backcasting
  • 79. Space of opportunities Spa ce of Core opport unities visionUsual futureperspective Carbon budget Peak oil Now Now 2050 2050
  • 80. ”The door is closing,” Fatih Birol,chief economist at theInternational Energy Agency,said. ”I am very worried – if wedont change direction now onhow we use energy, we will end upbeyond what scientists tell us isthe minimum [for safety]. Thedoor will be closed forever.” 9.11.2011
  • 81. Space of opportunitiesUsual futureperspective Now 2050 Spa ce of Core Future opport unities visionperspectivewith systemboundaries Carbon budget Peak oil Now 2050
  • 82. Decisions Future 1 Unexpected events Future 2DriversTrends Scenarios Future 3Emergingpatterns Future 42011 2020 2030 2050 Scenarios: forecasting
  • 83. Goals, Boundary Unexpected events conditions Decisions Future 1 Future 2 Drivers Scenarios Future 3Promising practices Future 42011 2020 2030 2050 Visions + backcasting process
  • 84. Forecasting Backcasting Context of justification Context of discoveryPhilosophical view causality determinism Causality and intentions Societal problem in need of a solution Dominant trends Desirable futures Likely futures Perspective Possible marginal adjustments Scope of human choice Streategic decisions how to adapt to trends Retain freedom of action Define interesting futures Extrapolate trends into the future Approach Sensitivity analyses Analyse consequences and conditions for these futures to materialise partial and conditional extrapolations Methods and Various econometric models Normative models, system dynamics techniques mathematical algorithms models, Delphi methods, expert judgements
  • 85. Backcasting process
  • 86. Backcasting process1. Define goals
  • 87. Backcasting process1. Define goals2. Investigate the goal (is it really transformative)
  • 88. Backcasting process1. Define goals2. Investigate the goal (is it really transformative)3. Images of the future
  • 89. Backcasting process1. Define goals2. Investigate the goal (is it really transformative)3. Images of the future4. Analyze the paths to futures, where are the trend breaks
  • 90. Multilevel model of social innovation
  • 91. Multilevel model of social innovation Promising Promising practice III practice V Promising practice VII Promising Promising practice IV practice II Promising Promising practice I practice VI
  • 92. Multilevel model of social innovation Promising Promising practice III practice V Promising practice VII Promising Promising practice IV practice II Promising Promising practice I practice VI
  • 93. Multilevel model of social innovation Promising s level Promising practice III Promising Niche practice V practice VII Promising Promising practice IV practice II Promising Promising practice I practice VI
  • 94. Multilevel model of social innovation Embedding Multiplying Up scaling Promising s level Promising practice III Promising Niche practice V practice VII Promising Promising practice IV practice II Promising Promising practice I practice VI
  • 95. Multilevel model of social innovation Markets, Science, Policie Markets, Science, Markets, Science, Policies Policies Embedding Multiplying Up scaling Promising s level Promising practice III Promising Niche practice V practice VII Promising Promising practice IV practice II Promising Promising practice I practice VI
  • 96. Multilevel model of social innovation Regim e level Markets, Science, Policie Markets, Science, Markets, Science, Policies Policies Embedding Multiplying Up scaling Promising s level Promising practice III Promising Niche practice V practice VII Promising Promising practice IV practice II Promising Promising practice I practice VI
  • 97. Multilevel model of social innovation e level ndscap Societal values, overall paradigms, megatrends La Regim e level Markets, Science, Policie Markets, Science, Markets, Science, Policies Policies Embedding Multiplying Up scaling Promising s level Promising practice III Promising Niche practice V practice VII Promising Promising practice IV practice II Promising Promising practice I practice VI
  • 98. How to use futures studies in urban planning? 1. Occasional backcasting exercises to test feasibility of existing plans 2. Participatory scenario processes for communicating and creating discussion with stakeholders on strategic plans 3. Continuous collection of signals of change through Delphi surveys and other forms of expert judgement studies
  • 99. Examples of scenarios onfutures of urban areas andlifestyles
  • 100. The Metka model
  • 101. Population,housing, servicesTransportationEnvironmentEconomics,businesses,employment
  • 102. SCENARIOS ONSUSTAINABLE LIFESTYLES
  • 103. within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre- sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how. Pandemic technology Meritocracy Human- centrism Endemic technology| SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050
  • 104. raticciety Local loops Meritocracy The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Human- Happy Communities Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare centrism Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. state where everyone has a place and way of being Some institutions – such as science – remain global. useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new innovations just like anybody else. Different areas command different economic and technological systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions. If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- In addition, science dominates global structures. All areas have ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized their own combination of influential professional groups. Local Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the environmental There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most of the value rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical context has share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources Endemic created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles. form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles. Endemic Endemic technologyREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 technology Technology Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011| SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050
  • 105. Start here! Starting point for your alternative futures The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards These landscapes are based on two fundamental workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on assumptions of variables that define societies. future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these The assumptions are: scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four Technology is either pandemic or endemic. future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed. The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic. We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre- sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how. Pandemic Pandemic technology Technology Pandemic technology The Singular Super Elite Governing the Commons Human- Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain- formed based on personal interests, values, and motives. Meritocracy able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. Communities with a strong bond can shape society from Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, centrism unexpected angles and redefine their professional and and solutions in society are globally applicable leisure identities. business models. Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound- operates within one techno-economic system, with highly aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social Endemic and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos- and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles. sible.aticiety
  • 106. Meritocracy The Singular Super Elite Hum cent The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future se able lifestyles as the market opportunity of t Innovation is driven by the few with meritab and solutions in society are globally applica business models. Everything has a price and a business model. Th operates within one techno-economic system, w Endemic standardized meters of performance. Society is and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading tec and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable l technology sible. Meritocratic society Local loops The world is build bottom-up by the best engine Global interaction between people is mediated, n Some institutions – such as science – remain glo Different areas command different economic and tech8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 systems, but are only connected through elites and in In addition, science dominates global structures. All a their own combination of influential professional grou professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the envir agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most o is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical con created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles.
  • 107. ritocracy Governing the Commons Human- Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are formed based on personal interests, values, and motives. Communities with a strong bond can shape society from unexpected angles and redefine their professional and centrism leisure identities. Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound- Endemic aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social technology and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles. Human-centrism Happy Communities Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare state where everyone has a place and way of being useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new innovations just like anybody else.nable lifestyles 2050 If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized. Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles.
  • 108. SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS
  • 109. how. Meritocracy Hu A meritocratic society circles around profes- A hu sional skills. The most commercially valu- ening Pandemic Human- able professional skills are engines of the Both + Meritocracy economy. Holders of those professions are Every being paid accordingly. Policies and struc- to do technology centrism tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes- sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You mem famil als. T do only what you’re really good at. impro appr Human- Endemic tion,cy what Pandemic technology centrism The Singular Super Elite The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain- technologythe Commons Endemic technolog Governing Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are formed based on personal interests, values, and motives. able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. The tools, infrastructures, and solutions we Communities with a strong bond can shape society from Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, unexpected angles and redefine their professional and technology harnesses and grown locally: and solutions in society are globally applicable tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local Endemic leisure identities. business models. tions rule technology. Where there is woo Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind can be used to kick start large scale globallogs – where days are extremely ho built of projects. Clear bound- 8| technology operates within one techno-economic system, with highly SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on in tents. The corpus of global science an standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a applications are highly local. is wide, yet wide array of and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in efficiency and innovations ga is driven by creating social and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos- and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles. sible. thinking locally. Meritocratic society Human-centrism Local loops Happy Communities Counting Backwards Workshop 24 The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. state where everyone has a place and way of being Some institutions – such as science – remain global. useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new innovations just like anybody else. Different areas command different economic and technological systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions. If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- In addition, science dominates global structures. All areas have ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized. their own combination of influential professional groups. Local Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the environmental There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most of the value rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical context has share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles. form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles. Endemic technology 10 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 11
  • 110. The Singular Super Elite The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see s able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this Innovation is driven by the few with meritable s and solutions in society are globally applicable business models. Everything has a price and a business model. The h operates within one techno-economic system, with standardized meters of performance. Society is tran and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Dat and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading techn and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifes sible.cy
  • 111. KEY DRIVERS OF SINGULAR SUPER ELITE1. Major changes in production structures through EU policy shift (policy) Evidence based policy-making gains prominence after the political turbulence within the Euro area which closes ties of politics and research in forming policies. Remarkable boom in efficiency and renewables in China.Vitality of renewables is coming very largely from the vibrant private sector and not from the state-owned enterprises.2. Price mechanism, it works! (economy) Pressure to run down technologically and ecologically outdated production processes and eliminate expensive and harmful incentives through cutting economic subsidies (e.g. fuel subsidies) and internalizing ecological costs in prices.3. Sustainability makes money (technology) Thanks to major leaps in technology, first cost-effective large scale upcycling processes are launched in the global markets. Enterprises start develop around provision and distribution of resources. Cradle to cradle is the fastest growing area of research.4. Learning, not earning (values) Education not only in classroom. Aims to provide the kids as early as possible with the cognitive tools that will enable them to take more ethical decisions and think critically on subjects. Competitiveness is nurtured as it’s seen as the only way to compete on global markets. Self-mastery becomes the new sport and hobby. People’s freetime is spent in learning institutions.
  • 112. THESE DRIVERS RESULT SUCH BITS OF LIFESTYLES AS...Retail companies have personal balance sheet for customersown natural resources in their possession. Extreme loyaltyschemes.Everywhere in the city, you have diffused education. Not onlyschools, but in society as whole. For instance, you caneducate yourself in shops, the shops enable you to learn byproviding information about the products and processes etc.If you want to eat special things, you learn how to cook it.Learning restaurants instead of consuming restaurants.Micro-agriculture compact and densify cities. Evaluating allbuilt and unbuilt land based on their food production potentialis standard part of urban planning.Urban farmer is a commonprofession.
  • 113. GOVERNING THE COMMONS
  • 114. Pandemic + Human- Meritocracy technology centrism Human- Endemic Pandemic Meritocracy technology The Singular Super Elite Governing the Commons The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain- able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, and solutions in society are globally applicable centrism technology Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are formed based on personal interests, values, and motives. Communities with a strong bond can shape society from unexpected angles and redefine their professional and leisure identities. business models. Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound- operates within one techno-economic system, with highly aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on Endemic standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos- 8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles. technology sible.Meritocratic society Human-centrism Local loops Happy Communities The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. state where everyone has a place and way of being Some institutions – such as science – remain global. useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new innovations just like anybody else. Different areas command different economic and technological 8| systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions. SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 In addition, science dominates global structures. All areas have their own combination of influential professional groups. Local If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized. Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the environmental There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most of the value rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical context has share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles. form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles. Endemic technology10 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 11
  • 115. Governing the Commons Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are formed based on personal interests, values, and motives. Communities with a strong bond can shape society from unexpected angles and redefine their professional and leisure identities. Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound- aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time onmicro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech-nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array ofinterest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating socialand technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles.Happy Communities
  • 116. KEY DRIVERS OF DRIVERS OF GOVERNING THE COMMONS1. 3D printing changes the structures of production and consumption (technology)2. Ubiquitous society increases the amount of human interaction through p2p-services and digital environments (social, technology)3. People want more meaningful jobs and welfare that goes beyond 20th century welfare (values)4. Overwhelming amount of scientific data translates into decline popularity of religions (values)
  • 117. THESE DRIVERS RESULT SUCH BITS OF LIFESTYLES AS...People learn various skills in order to be sure that they can do whatever tasks necessary andthus guarantee their impact in building the society. (Source of human value)Work week is 4 days and people can divide it however they please. (Leisure time)Most of the day I offer my input to various processes of co-production (eg. when in bus Ianswer few queries about my preferences and thus help the company). (Society, Time usage)People are constantly linked to different institutes and people worldwide. This leads to activeways of governance. (Political decision making)A lot of effort to building personal virtual environment to be as pleasant as possible. Premiumservices of FB, Twitter etc. become must haves. (Technology, Social Bonds)Internet and web-based solutions in everyday-life arrangements will be growing in importanceleading to less need to leave home to take care of things. (Leisure time, Technology)People actively shape their surroundings through action. Every morning I answer a questionthat someone from my interest group has posted and those decision shape the surroundings.(Living Environment)Every action produces a counter-reaction and interest groups are formed by these contexts.During a day I’m part of 9 different groups.
  • 118. LOCAL LOOPS
  • 119. Start here! Starting point for your alternative futures The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards These landscapes are based on two fundamental workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on assumptions of variables that define societies.StartSingular Super Elite The here! Pandemic technology future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these The assumptions are: scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four Governing the Commons Technology is either pandemic or endemic. future landscapes through which the scenarios are Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are constructed. The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain- The governing principle of the society is either personal interests, values, and motives. formed based on able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. human-centric or meritocratic.Starting point for your alternative futures Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, and solutions in society are globally applicable Communities with a strong bond can shape society from unexpected angles and redefine their professional and business models. We believe that sustainable societies are achievable leisure identities. he goal of the SPREAD 2050Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind Counting backwards These landscapes all the fouron two fundamental Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills within are based alternative future landscapes (pre- can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound-workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on system, with highly operates within one techno-economic assumptions of variables that define societies. task is of work andout have been replaced by spending time on sented on the next opening). Your aries to find leisure standardized meters of performance. Society is transparentuture of sustainablethings have become measurable and most things have a price. The assumptions are: and most lifestyles. In order to make these Data is open how. micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of cenarios differ from each every level we have defined four other, increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos- and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social A mer and competition on Technology is either pandemic or endemic.innovations for sustainable lifestyles. and technological sionaluture landscapes through which the scenarios are sible. Pandemic onstructed. Meritocratic The governing principle of the society is either able p society Human-centrism human-centric or meritocratic. econo being technology We believe that sustainable societies are achievable tures Local loops Happy Communities within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre- sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out work The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare sions. how. Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. state where everyone has a place and way of being Some institutions – such as science – remain global. useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new A meritocratic onl do soc innovations just like anybody else. sional skills. The Human- Different areas command different economic and technological Pandemic systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions. If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- able professional Meritocracy In addition, science dominates global structures. All areas have ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized. their own combination of influential professional groups. Local Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. economy. Holders centrism professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the environmental There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People being paid accor technology agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most of the value rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical context has share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources tures of society a created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles. form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles. Endemic work of the lead technology sions. Division of l do only what you’r 10 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 11 Endemic Human- Meritocracy + technology centrism
  • 120. Local loops Elderlyhouses turned into future "business parks". Workforce and expertice is The world is build bottom-u there, capital and business intelligence is only needed. Microcurrencies shape to form microsocieties.interaction between p GlobalOld people want to remain active both sociallyinstitutions – and use the Some and in terms of work such asskills they have developed earlier. a re-awakening of the desire for a sense of community. Different areas command differ The state is a less secure source of support, so elderly are relying systems, butnot others. on themselves and are only connecte scarcity of resources, communities that grow their own food anddominates In addition, science energy their own combination of influeEnd of the oil and coal era, big investments to local renewable energy resources.Decentralised electricity production become cheaper and more secure thancentralized fossile-based production in therefore both the innovation professional guilds are 2020. Link to local/micro entrepreneurs ... Common and shared rarely to the wo agent. Local material flows circulate goods owned by small local communities: high efficiencylocal resources.on demand. is produced through appliances. Production Understanding
  • 121. KEY DRIVERS OF LOCAL LOOPS1. Fierce global resource competition and peak oil (environment)2. Harnessing various kinds of local resources through advanced technology (technology)3. 90 degrees turn in value patterns towards localism (values)4. New notion of work (social)
  • 122. THESE DRIVERS RESULT SUCH BITS OF LIFESTYLES AS...People form guilds with their professional peers.Majority of population live in neighborhoods that are defined according their own professionand guild. People spend great part of their leisure time within their neighborhood. However,people work long hours and very often consider their fellow guild members as their closestfriends.Extreme division of labour means that people don’t do very many things – cleaning,maintaining of home devices, elderly care – themselves but instead rely very much onprofessional services.The concept of retiring has ceased to exist. The role of seniors is to transfer theirprofessional experience and tacit knowledge much more comprehensively than in 2012.Efficient local resource and cradle-to-cradle thinking have led to highly diverse ways ofconsumption. People want to be aware of the local life cycles of goods they consume. Globalfranchices don’t exist any more.
  • 123. EMPATHICCOMMUNITIES
  • 124. Happy Communities Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare state where everyone has a place and way of being useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new innovations just like anybody else. If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized. Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. There really is no gap between consumer and producer. Peoplerarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and thenshare their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resourcesform a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles. Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuu
  • 125. Start here! Starting point for your alternative futures The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards These landscapes are based on two fundamental Start here! workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on assumptions of variables that define societies. future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these The assumptions are: scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four Technology is either pandemic or endemic. future landscapes through which the Pandemic scenarios are constructed. technology The governing principle of the society is either The Singular Super Elite point for your alternative futures Commons Starting Governing the human-centric or meritocratic. Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain- We believe that sustainable societiesvalues, achievable formed based on personal interests, are and motives. The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwardsthe fourThese with a strong bond can shape society from two fundamental able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. within all Communities landscapes landscapes (pre- alternative future are based on Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on the next opening). redefine their professional and out societies. and solutions in society are globally applicable sented on unexpected angles and of variables that define assumptionsYour task is to find leisure identities. business models. future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these how. The assumptions are: Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills Everything has a price and ascenarios The humankind business model. differ from each other, we have defined four can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound- operates within one techno-economic system, with highly Technology is either pandemic or endemic. standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent through which the scenarios are future landscapes aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of society is either The governing principle of the and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open constructed. Pandemic and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos- human-centric or meritocratic. and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles. sible. We believe that sustainable societiesHuman-centrism are achievab technologyMeritocratic society within all the four alternative future landscapes (p sented on the next opening). Your task is to find o Local loops Happy Communities how. The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. state where everyone has a place and way of being Human- Some institutions – such as science – remain global. useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new Pandemic innovations just like anybody else. Meritocracy Different areas command different economic and technological systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions. If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- centrism In addition, science dominates global structures. All areas have technology ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized. their own combination of influential professional groups. Local Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the environmental There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most of the value rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical context has share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles. form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles. Endemic technology Endemic + Human-10 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 11 Meritocracy technology centrism
  • 126. KEY DRIVERS OF EMPATHIC COMMUNITIES1. Extreme price of natural resources. (environment)2. Financial system breaks down and is replaced with local systems of exchange. (economy)3. Crises forces us to re-evaluate and understand the possibilities for local production (economy, technology)4. New world order → growth looses meaning as central driver (politics)
  • 127. THESE DRIVERS RESULT SUCH BITS OF LIFESTYLES AS...Local communities are tribe-like groups that are based ontrust and reputation. Empathy towards all other humansdrives social life and facilitates deliberative decisionmaking.Private living space is decreased by increasing shared spaces.Everybody has 20 m2 per person for themselves and spacesfor eating, washing, working, bathing, playing are shared. Athomes functions are more important than square meters.Leisure time as a concept is being replaced by idea ofreflection time. It is time when you don’t have strictresponsibilities and disturbing noise from commercial andother information source is absent.Resource scarcity has lead into highly developed forms ofsharing and collaborative production.

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