Kuinka elämme vuonna 2050

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Millaiset asiat ohjaavat elämäntapojemme kehitystä lähivuosikymmeninä? Miten elämäntapojen muutos ohjaa muuta yhteiskunnallista muutosta? Millaista olisi elämä yhteiskunnassa, jossa ilmastonmuutoksen uhka on torjuttu? Esitys perustuu Spread Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 -hankkeen tuloksiin. Se esittelee neljä erilaista skenaarioita kestävistä elämäntavoista. Ydinviestinä on, että kestävän yhteiskunnan malleja on monia ja että elämäntavat luultavasti pikemminkin moninaistuvat kuin yhdenmukaistuvat energian ja luonnonvarojen niukentuessa.

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Kuinka elämme vuonna 2050

  1. 1. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Kuinka elämme vuonna 2050? ”SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050” -hankkeen tuloksia Aleksi Neuvonen Demos Helsinki www.demos.fi aleksi.neuvonen@demos.fi Twitter: @leksis
  2. 2. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Mitä esityksestä voisi jäädä käteen?
  3. 3. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu ”Critical friend”: Haastaa mutta hyväntahtoisesti
  4. 4. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Mitä mahdollisuuksia esitetyt skenaariot tarjoavat minulle, organisaatiolleni tai edustamalleni viiteryhmälle?
  5. 5. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  6. 6. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  7. 7. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  8. 8. Mistä elämäntapojen ympäristövaikutukset koostuvat? Lähde: Suomen ympäristökeskus,Ari Nissinen, 2009 Lähde: Envimat -projekti
  9. 9. Mistä elämäntapojen ympäristövaikutukset koostuvat? Lähde: Suomen ympäristökeskus,Ari Nissinen, 2009 Lähde: Envimat -projekti
  10. 10. Space of opportunities 2050Now Space of opportunities 2050Now Carbon budget Peak oil Core vision Perinteinen tapa nähdä tulevaisuus Rajalliset resurssit huomioiva tulevaisuus
  11. 11. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu http://www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu/fileadmin/images/content/ D4.1_FourFutureScenarios.pdf
  12. 12. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Endemic technology Human-centrism
  13. 13. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Kuinka tutkia tulevaisuuden kestäviä elämäntapoja?
  14. 14. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Mobility (daily and tourism) 11 000 kg Housing: building 2400 kg Product consumption 2600 kg Leisure time 1500 kg Food 7300 kg Housing: electricity 3300 kg Others 900 kg
  15. 15. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Mobility (daily and tourism) 11 000 kg Housing: building 2400 kg Product consumption 2600 kg Leisure time 1500 kg Food 7300 kg Housing: electricity 3300 kg Others 900 kg 30 000 kg
  16. 16. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Mobility (daily and tourism) 11 000 kg Housing: building 2400 kg Product consumption 2600 kg Leisure time 1500 kg Food 7300 kg Housing: electricity 3300 kg Others 900 kg 30 000 kg Mobility (daily and tourism) 2800 kg Food 2500 kg Housing: building 1300 kg Others Housing: electricity 300 kg Product consumption Leisure time 300 kg 8000 kg
  17. 17. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Mobility (daily and tourism) 11 000 kg Housing: building 2400 kg Product consumption 2600 kg Leisure time 1500 kg Food 7300 kg Housing: electricity 3300 kg Others 900 kg 20502040203020202012 30 000 kg Mobility (daily and tourism) 2800 kg Food 2500 kg Housing: building 1300 kg Others Housing: electricity 300 kg Product consumption Leisure time 300 kg 8000 kg
  18. 18. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Mobility (daily and tourism) 11 000 kg Housing: building 2400 kg Product consumption 2600 kg Leisure time 1500 kg Food 7300 kg Housing: electricity 3300 kg Others 900 kg 20502040203020202012 30 000 kg Mobility (daily and tourism) 2800 kg Food 2500 kg Housing: building 1300 kg Others Housing: electricity 300 kg Product consumption Leisure time 300 kg 8000 kg 37 vuotta = yksi sukupolvi
  19. 19. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Mobility (daily and tourism) 11 000 kg Housing: building 2400 kg Product consumption 2600 kg Leisure time 1500 kg Food 7300 kg Housing: electricity 3300 kg Others 900 kg 20122020203020402050 Mobility (daily and tourism) 2800 kg Food 2500 kg Housing: building 1300 kg Others Housing: electricity 300 kg Product consumption Leisure time 300 kg
  20. 20. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Mobility (daily and tourism) 11 000 kg Housing: building 2400 kg Product consumption 2600 kg Leisure time 1500 kg Food 7300 kg Housing: electricity 3300 kg Others 900 kg 20122020203020402050 Mobility (daily and tourism) 2800 kg Food 2500 kg Housing: building 1300 kg Others Housing: electricity 300 kg Product consumption Leisure time 300 kg Entä jos lähdemmekin tavoitellusta tulevaisuudesta?
  21. 21. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Mobility (daily and tourism) 11 000 kg Housing: building 2400 kg Product consumption 2600 kg Leisure time 1500 kg Food 7300 kg Housing: electricity 3300 kg Others 900 kg 20122020203020402050 Mobility (daily and tourism) 2800 kg Food 2500 kg Housing: building 1300 kg Others Housing: electricity 300 kg Product consumption Leisure time 300 kg Entä jos lähdemmekin tavoitellusta tulevaisuudesta?
  22. 22. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Mobility (daily and tourism) 11 000 kg Housing: building 2400 kg Product consumption 2600 kg Leisure time 1500 kg Food 7300 kg Housing: electricity 3300 kg Others 900 kg 20122020203020402050 Mobility (daily and tourism) 2800 kg Food 2500 kg Housing: building 1300 kg Others Housing: electricity 300 kg Product consumption Leisure time 300 kg Entä jos lähdemmekin tavoitellusta tulevaisuudesta? Kokeiluista disruptiiviseen muutokseen
  23. 23. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Mobility (daily and tourism) 11 000 kg Housing: building 2400 kg Product consumption 2600 kg Leisure time 1500 kg Food 7300 kg Housing: electricity 3300 kg Others 900 kg 20122020203020402050 Mobility (daily and tourism) 2800 kg Food 2500 kg Housing: building 1300 kg Others Housing: electricity 300 kg Product consumption Leisure time 300 kg Entä jos lähdemmekin tavoitellusta tulevaisuudesta? Kokeiluista disruptiiviseen muutokseen Kvantitatiivisesta resurssitehokkuudesta kestävien elämäntapojen arkisiin käytäntöihin
  24. 24. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Vaihtoehoisia skenaarioita kestäville elämäntavoille
  25. 25. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology
  26. 26. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology
  27. 27. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology
  28. 28. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology
  29. 29. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology
  30. 30. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology
  31. 31. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology
  32. 32. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology
  33. 33. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology
  34. 34. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology
  35. 35. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Human-centrism Endemic technology
  36. 36. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pääkysymykset: Miten teknologia kehittyy? Miten ihmisen paikka yhteiskunnassa määrittyy?
  37. 37. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Identifioidut muutosilmiöt Markkinaehtoiset ohjauskeinot läpi yhteiskunnan Materiaaliteknologinen läpimurtoKaupungistuminen Kilpailuyhteiskunnan arvotUbiikkiteknologiat Ammattirakenteen muutos Digitaaliset yhteisöt 3D-tulostus kuluttajamarkkinoilla Energiakriisi Paikalliset resurssit Paikallisuuden arvostus Palvelutalouden työnjako Järjestelmätason talouskriisi Edustuksellisen demokratian kriisi Moniammatillisuus Alkutuotannon korostuminen
  38. 38. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Endemic technology Human-centrism Singular Super Champions Governing the Commons Local Loops Empathetic Communities
  39. 39. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Endemic technology Human-centrism Singular Super Champions Hintamekanismi Upcycling-talouden läpimurto Tiivis kaupunkirakenne Kilpailullisuus Governing the Commons Local Loops Empathetic Communities
  40. 40. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Endemic technology Human-centrism Singular Super Champions Hintamekanismi Upcycling-talouden läpimurto Tiivis kaupunkirakenne Kilpailullisuus Ubiikkiteknologiat Ammattirakenteen hajoaminen Digitaaliset yhteisöt 3D-tulostus muuttaa kuluttajuutta Governing the Commons Local Loops Empathetic Communities
  41. 41. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Endemic technology Human-centrism Singular Super Champions Hintamekanismi Upcycling-talouden läpimurto Tiivis kaupunkirakenne Kilpailullisuus Ubiikkiteknologiat Ammattirakenteen hajoaminen Digitaaliset yhteisöt 3D-tulostus muuttaa kuluttajuutta Energiakriisi Paikalliset teknologiat ja resurssit Paikallisen osaamisen keskittymät Palvelutalous Governing the Commons Local Loops Empathetic Communities
  42. 42. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Endemic technology Human-centrism Singular Super Champions Hintamekanismi Upcycling-talouden läpimurto Tiivis kaupunkirakenne Kilpailullisuus Ubiikkiteknologiat Ammattirakenteen hajoaminen Digitaaliset yhteisöt 3D-tulostus muuttaa kuluttajuutta Energiakriisi Paikalliset teknologiat ja resurssit Paikallisen osaamisen keskittymät Palvelutalous Talouskriisi, valtioiden taantuminen Paikallisuus, moniammatillisuus Alkutuotannon roolin korostuminen Governing the Commons Local Loops Empathetic Communities
  43. 43. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  44. 44. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Eurooppa on tehnyt suuren loikan kestävään, kilpailulliseen mutta reiluun yhteiskuntaan.
  45. 45. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Endemic technology Human-centrism
  46. 46. Learning not earning The upcycling economy Transparency gets the prices right The European Green New Deal
  47. 47. “Education is everywhere in daily life. Kids can log in to any object and access the so- called ‘situated education programmes’ and learn flexibly all through the day.” Diffused learning embedded in everyday products School programs integrating in daily activities Learning not earning The upcycling economy Transparency gets the prices right The European Green New Deal
  48. 48. Learning not earning The upcycling economy Transparency gets the prices right The European Green New Deal
  49. 49. Learning not earning The upcycling economy Transparency gets the prices right The European Green New Deal I eat only food that’s hyper- efficient in terms of nutrition levels. Cabbages, lentils and berries are key elements in my diet. It just makes sense!
  50. 50. Learning not earning The upcycling economy Transparency gets the prices right The European Green New Deal
  51. 51. Learning not earning The upcycling economy Transparency gets the prices right The European Green New Deal I returned my old shoes to the shoe store and got my store credit returned by doing so. I can now get brand new shoes and I know that it’s great for the environment as well!
  52. 52. Learning not earning The upcycling economy Transparency gets the prices right The European Green New Deal
  53. 53. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Digitaalinen todellisuus vapauttaa ihmiset vanhoista rakenteista ja avaa tien kestävään yhteiskuntaan.
  54. 54. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Endemic technology Human-centrism
  55. 55. Wikidemocracy Better work creates well-being Ubitech economy The 3rd industrial revolution
  56. 56. Wikidemocracy Better work creates well-being Ubitech economy The 3rd industrial revolution My son never buys anything that is mass- produced. He wants to customise it all by himself. I think all of his clothes are custom made.
  57. 57. Wikidemocracy Better work creates well-being Ubitech economy The 3rd industrial revolution
  58. 58. Wikidemocracy Better work creates well-being Ubitech economy The 3rd industrial revolution “I often log on to these participative governance programs in order to meet people with whom I share common interests. We regularly propose initiatives that later become the basis of new policies.” Local citizenship networksDeliberative processes on local governance
  59. 59. Wikidemocracy Better work creates well-being Ubitech economy The 3rd industrial revolution
  60. 60. Wikidemocracy Better work creates well-being Ubitech economy The 3rd industrial revolution “Our Active House is constantly optimising the way we live, from suggesting green cooking recipes and automatically preventing food waste to implementing Energy Watcher dieting programs for the family.” Sensors and feedback systems Situated advise on energy consumption
  61. 61. Wikidemocracy Better work creates well-being Ubitech economy The 3rd industrial revolution
  62. 62. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Radikaali energiakriisi pakottaa yhteiskunnat arvioimaan uudelleen hyvinvointinsa perusteet ja näkemään uuden mahdollisuuden paikallisissa voimavaroissa.
  63. 63. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Endemic technology Human-centrism
  64. 64. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Craftsman attitude Local turn Rediscovery of local resources Peak-oil game-changer
  65. 65. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Craftsman attitude Local turn Rediscovery of local resources Peak-oil game-changer I returned my old shoes to the shoe store and got my store credit returned by doing so. I can now get brand new shoes and I know that it’s great for the environment as well! “For my husband and me, leisure means visiting one the Local Gastronomy Guilds around, who are reinventing new recipes from local seasonal food.” Open kitchens promoting local gastronomy Food lessons of green cooking
  66. 66. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Craftsman attitude Local turn Rediscovery of local resources Peak-oil game-changer
  67. 67. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Craftsman attitude Local turn Rediscovery of local resources Peak-oil game-changer 2023: Oil prices continue to rise beyond belief, pushing great numbers of logistics companies out of the market or forcing them to sell their operations to the few remaining large ones. As a result, a small number of firms dominate transport markets in many countries, which ultimately leads to significant price increases. !
  68. 68. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Craftsman attitude Local turn Rediscovery of local resources Peak-oil game-changer
  69. 69. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Craftsman attitude Local turn Rediscovery of local resources Peak-oil game-changer I love living in my Danish town. We haven’t had to worry about buying energy in ages. I know lots of other towns that enjoy the same situation.
  70. 70. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Craftsman attitude Local turn Rediscovery of local resources Peak-oil game-changer
  71. 71. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Craftsman attitude Local turn Rediscovery of local resources Peak-oil game-changer Green doorkeepers are a specialized guild that controls, monitors and ensures the energy efficiency of buildings and blocks. They serve as links between the neighbourhoods.
  72. 72. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Craftsman attitude Local turn Rediscovery of local resources Peak-oil game-changer
  73. 73. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Länsimaiset yhteiskunnat ajautuvat kauan pelkäämäänsä järjestelmäkriisiin mutta lopulta uusi järjestys syntyy helpommin kuin mitä useimmat odottivat.
  74. 74. Pandemic technology Meritocracy Endemic technology Human-centrism
  75. 75. Communitisation of urban planning Public, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model The “We can” generation works together The system breaks down
  76. 76. Communitisation of urban planning Public, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model The “We can” generation works together The system breaks down “I know a lot about easy and cost-efficient energy retrofitting jobs such as insulation. Our co-operative is very good at these quick fixes and we enjoy sharing our knowledge with the community.” Retrofitted passive housing Insulation based on DIY solutions Mix of new active constructions
  77. 77. Communitisation of urban planning Public, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model The “We can” generation works together The system breaks down
  78. 78. Communitisation of urban planning Public, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model The “We can” generation works together The system breaks down 2026: In many countries governments resign and it turns out to be impossible to form new coalitions, which paralyzes national politics and public investments. !
  79. 79. Communitisation of urban planning Public, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model The “We can” generation works together The system breaks down
  80. 80. Communitisation of urban planning Public, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model The “We can” generation works together The system breaks down Health is of the highest importance in local administration and in every municipality here in the Netherlands, as it is in all other European countries.
  81. 81. Communitisation of urban planning Public, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model The “We can” generation works together The system breaks down
  82. 82. Communitisation of urban planning Public, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model The “We can” generation works together The system breaks down “I love the fact that the old streets are now turned into urban farming plots while still maintaining plenty of space for walking and cycling.” Minor streets transformed and divided into local neighbourhood gardens Re-appropriation of public space regenerates local social life Former sidewalks maintained for local mobility Provides complementary food resources for houses and apartments nearby
  83. 83. Communitisation of urban planning Public, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model The “We can” generation works together The system breaks down
  84. 84. Maria Ritola, Demos Helsinki BudapestBarcelonaHelsinki Wuppertal 5 työpajaa, 75 eurooppalaista Mitä ihmiset haluavat ja toivovat kestävältä tulevaisuudelta?
  85. 85. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Endemic technology Human-centrism
  86. 86. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Pandemic technology Meritocracy Endemic technology Human-centrism
  87. 87. Bernd, Germany 55,1t Kirsti, Finland 38,7t Iria, Spain 24,8t Péter, Hungary 8,8t On siis ymmärrettävä, kuinka elämäntavat muuttuvat
  88. 88. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  89. 89. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  90. 90. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  91. 91. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  92. 92. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  93. 93. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Kuka toteuttaa muutoksen kestäviin elämäntapoihin?
  94. 94. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  95. 95. Company Industry Revenue (billion USD) Exxon Mobil Oil and gas 486 $ Royal Dutch Shell Oil and gas 470 $ Walmart Retail 447 $ Sinopec company Oil and gas 398 $ China National Petroleum Corporation Oil and gas 378 $ BP Oil and gas 376 $ Vitol Commodities 297 $ State Grid Corporation of China Electric utility 266 $ Chevron Oil and gas 254 $ ConocoPhillips Oil and gas 251 $ Maailman suurimmat yritykset Wikipedia (2012) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_by_revenue
  96. 96. Company Industry Revenue (billion USD) Exxon Mobil Oil and gas 486 $ Royal Dutch Shell Oil and gas 470 $ Walmart Retail 447 $ Sinopec company Oil and gas 398 $ China National Petroleum Corporation Oil and gas 378 $ BP Oil and gas 376 $ Vitol Commodities 297 $ State Grid Corporation of China Electric utility 266 $ Chevron Oil and gas 254 $ ConocoPhillips Oil and gas 251 $ Maailman suurimmat yritykset Wikipedia (2012) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_by_revenue
  97. 97. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
  98. 98. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Mikä on energia-alan business opportunity?
  99. 99. www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu Mikä on energia-alan business opportunity? Vai jäätetäänkö areena suosiolla uusille kasvuyrityksille?
  100. 100. Isännöitsijät Kiinteistönvälittäjät Elintarvike-teollisuus Ruokakaupat Autokaupat Rakennus-valvonta Tekniikan maailmat Kotimaan matkailupalvelut Metsänomistajat Kestävien elämäntapojen portinvartijat Energiayhtiöt
  101. 101. 44
  102. 102. Sharetribe Piggybaggy Hukkatila Weegos Karves- energiaisännöinti There coprporation Uusi Startup-skene
  103. 103. Sharetribe Piggybaggy Hukkatila Weegos Karves- energiaisännöinti There coprporation Uusi Startup-skene
  104. 104. Toteuvatko kestävät elämäntavat... 1. Muuttamalla 10 suurimman yrityksen strategiat? 2. Luoda uudet 10 suurinta yritystä? 3. Luottamalla startup-vetoiseen jatkuvaan luovaan tuhoon?

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