Writing a Field Plan April 23rd, 2008 Listen live on:  Questions?  [email_address] AIM: DFA Night School   Paid for by Dem...
Welcome Back to Night School! <ul><li>What’s New? </li></ul><ul><li>Streaming live at Blog Talk Radio: </li></ul><ul><li>N...
Tonight’s Trainers Arshad Hasan DFA Executive Director Night School Host Helen Strain Field Organizer for over 20 years Ma...
Field Planning in 2 Parts  <ul><li>This session: </li></ul><ul><li>1. Setting Your Vote Goals </li></ul><ul><li>- Win Numb...
Your Blueprint for Victory <ul><li>Contains your campaign’s  Goals  and </li></ul><ul><li>the  Strategies ,  Tactics ,  Ti...
What’s Your Win Number? <ul><li>Step 1: Project the turnout: </li></ul>Step 3: Write them down! % Turnout in last similar ...
Targeting Your Resources <ul><li>Why target? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Limited People, Money & Time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li...
Calculate Your Vote Goals District Total Current Registration:  5124 ’ 04 Turnout %:    46.3% ’ 08 Projected Turnout  ____...
We need at least 1146 votes to win District Total Current Registration:  5124 ’ 04 Turnout:    46.3% ’ 08 Projected Turnou...
Democratic Performance Index <ul><li>‘ Percentage of the vote an average Dem can expect in an average election’ </li></ul>...
Find the Democrats! Region # 1 08 Projected Turnout:  503 Dem Performance Index:  69% Projected Dem Turnout  ____  Vote Go...
Not enough Democrats to win Region # 1 08 Projected Turnout:  503 Dem Performance Index:  69% Projected Dem Turnout  347  ...
How many persuadable voters are out there? <ul><li>Method # 1:   </li></ul><ul><li>Look for the blowouts to determine the ...
Find the Persuadable Voters District Totals ’ 08 Projected Turnout :  2371 Persuasion Index:    16.2% Projected Perusable ...
A Winnable District Region # 1 ’ 08 Projected Turnout :  503 Persuasion Index:    18% Projected Perusable Voters 91  Persu...
Questions? <ul><li>Email:  nightschool@democracyforamerica.com </li></ul><ul><li>Instant Message:   </li></ul><ul><li>DFA ...
Field Targeting Strategies <ul><li>DEM BASE PRECINCTS </li></ul><ul><ul><li>- D.P.I. = greater than 65% </li></ul></ul><ul...
Targeting with Voter History <ul><li>Voter Contact Priorities </li></ul><ul><li>Undecideds likely to Vote  (ID, Persuasion...
VAN Power One big list of voters for all Democrats The VAN doesn’t fix itself! Contact your local county Democratic Party ...
<ul><li>Look at your candidate and message </li></ul><ul><li>Identify your supporters in the </li></ul><ul><li>community <...
Questions <ul><li>Email </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>Instant Message </li></ul><ul><li>DFA Night Sc...
Homework <ul><li>Download the attached worksheet </li></ul><ul><li>Click Here to download </li></ul><ul><li>2.  Calculate ...
Learn more every Month <ul><li>May 28 th  8:30pm ET </li></ul><ul><li>Writing a Field Plan </li></ul><ul><li>Part 2: Tacti...
Thank you for joining us! Need to catch up on earlier Night School presentations?  Order previous semesters on DVD (and he...
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Writing A Field Plan Part 1

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Writing A Field Plan Part 1

  1. 1. Writing a Field Plan April 23rd, 2008 Listen live on: Questions? [email_address] AIM: DFA Night School Paid for by Democracy for America, www.democracyforamerica.com, and not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.
  2. 2. Welcome Back to Night School! <ul><li>What’s New? </li></ul><ul><li>Streaming live at Blog Talk Radio: </li></ul><ul><li>New Look: </li></ul><ul><li>New DFA website coming soon! </li></ul>2 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com Click here to listen:
  3. 3. Tonight’s Trainers Arshad Hasan DFA Executive Director Night School Host Helen Strain Field Organizer for over 20 years Matt Blizek DFA Training Director Night School Host 3 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  4. 4. Field Planning in 2 Parts <ul><li>This session: </li></ul><ul><li>1. Setting Your Vote Goals </li></ul><ul><li>- Win Number </li></ul><ul><li>- Vote Goal </li></ul><ul><li>2. Targeting Strategies </li></ul><ul><li>- Geographic </li></ul><ul><li>- Voting History </li></ul><ul><li>- Demographic </li></ul><ul><li>Next Month: </li></ul><ul><li>3. Voter Contact Tactics </li></ul><ul><li>- Canvass </li></ul><ul><li>- Phones </li></ul><ul><li>- Mail </li></ul><ul><li>- Etc </li></ul><ul><li>4. Timelines </li></ul><ul><li>5. Benchmarks </li></ul>RSVP for Part 2 of this series: www.dfalink.com/fieldplan2 4 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  5. 5. Your Blueprint for Victory <ul><li>Contains your campaign’s Goals and </li></ul><ul><li>the Strategies , Tactics , Timelines , </li></ul><ul><li>and Benchmarks to achieve them </li></ul><ul><li>Person to person voter contact </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Delivers a campaign’s message to </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>targeted voters </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tactics: Canvass, phone calls, mail </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>literature drops, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Builds a grassroots volunteer base </li></ul>A strong Field Organization can help you gain between 3-5% on election day. 5 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  6. 6. What’s Your Win Number? <ul><li>Step 1: Project the turnout: </li></ul>Step 3: Write them down! % Turnout in last similar election(s) Current number of registered voters x Projected Turnout = Win Number = (Projected Turnout / 2) + 1 Vote Goal = Projected Turnout x .52 Step 2: Set Your Goals 6 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  7. 7. Targeting Your Resources <ul><li>Why target? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Limited People, Money & Time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gets the right message to the right voters </li></ul></ul><ul><li>3 Ways to Target Voters </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Geographically </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Voter History & Identification </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Constituencies </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Research Suggestions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Secretary of State </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>County Elections Board </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Party Voter File </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>NCEC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>US Census data </li></ul></ul>7 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  8. 8. Calculate Your Vote Goals District Total Current Registration: 5124 ’ 04 Turnout %: 46.3% ’ 08 Projected Turnout ____ Win Number ____ Vote Goal (52%) ____ Formula Key Projected Turnout = Current Registration x 04 Turnout % Win Number = (Projected Turnout / 2) + 1 Vote Goal = Projected Turnout x .52 Region # 3 Current Registration: 1897 ’ 04 Turnout %: 52% ’ 08 Projected Turnout ____ Win Number _ ___ Vote Goal (52%) ____ Region # 2 Current Registration: 1603 ’ 04 Turnout %: 55% ’ 08 Projected Turnout ____ Win Number ____ Vote Goal (52%) ____ Region # 1 Current Registration: 1624 ’ 04 Turnout %: 31% ’ 08 Projected Turnout ____ Win Number ____ Vote Goal (52%) ____ 8 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  9. 9. We need at least 1146 votes to win District Total Current Registration: 5124 ’ 04 Turnout: 46.3% ’ 08 Projected Turnout 2371 Win Number 1187 Vote Goal (52%) 1233 Region # 3 Current Registration: 1897 ’ 04 Turnout: 52% ’ 08 Projected Turnout 986 Win Number 494 Vote Goal (52%) 513 Region # 2 Current Registration: 1603 ’ 04 Turnout: 55% ’ 08 Projected Turnout 882 Win Number 442 Vote Goal (52%) 458 Region # 1 Current Registration: 1624 ’ 04 Turnout: 31% ’ 08 Projected Turnout 503 Win Number 253 Vote Goal (52%) 262 9 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  10. 10. Democratic Performance Index <ul><li>‘ Percentage of the vote an average Dem can expect in an average election’ </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Based on voting history NOT voter registration </li></ul></ul><ul><li>How to calculate D.P.I </li></ul><ul><li>About NCEC </li></ul>Democratic % in similar election # 1 + Democratic % in similar election # 2 + Democratic % in similar election # 3 / 3 = D.P.I. { } 10 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  11. 11. Find the Democrats! Region # 1 08 Projected Turnout: 503 Dem Performance Index: 69% Projected Dem Turnout ____ Vote Goal (52%) 262 Vote difference ____ Region # 3 08 Projected Turnout: 986 Dem Performance Index: 48% Projected Dem Turnout ____ Vote Goal (52%) 513 Vote difference ____ Region # 2 08 Projected Turnout: 882 Dem Performance Index: 31% Projected Dem Turnout ____ Vote Goal (52%) 458 Vote difference ____ District Totals 08 Projected Turnout: 2371 Dem Performance Index: 46.1% Projected Dem Turnout ____ Vote Goal (52%) 1233 Vote difference ____ Formula Key Projected Dem Turnout = Turnout Projection x D.P.I. Vote Difference = Projected Dem Turnout – Vote Goal 11 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  12. 12. Not enough Democrats to win Region # 1 08 Projected Turnout: 503 Dem Performance Index: 69% Projected Dem Turnout 347 Vote Goal (52%) 262 Vote difference 85 Region # 3 08 Projected Turnout: 986 Dem Performance Index: 48% Projected Dem Turnout 473 Vote Goal (52%) 513 Vote difference -39 Region # 2 08 Projected Turnout: 882 Dem Performance Index: 31% Projected Dem Turnout 273 Vote Goal (52%) 458 Vote difference -185 District Totals 08 Projected Turnout: 2371 Dem Performance Index: 46.1% Projected Dem Turnout 1094 Vote Goal (52%) 1233 Vote difference -139 12 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  13. 13. How many persuadable voters are out there? <ul><li>Method # 1: </li></ul><ul><li>Look for the blowouts to determine the Base Vote </li></ul><ul><li>AKA ‘Yellow Dog’ Democrats </li></ul><ul><li>Method # 2: </li></ul><ul><li>Compare campaigns with the same constituents </li></ul>100% - Democrat Base % - Republican Base % Persuasion Index Candidate % of vote in District Dem Governor 57% Dem State Senate 46% 57% - 46% = 11% of the voters are persuadable 13 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  14. 14. Find the Persuadable Voters District Totals ’ 08 Projected Turnout : 2371 Persuasion Index: 16.2% Projected Perusable Voters 384 Persuasion Share ___ Formula Key Projected Persuadable Voters = Turnout Projection x Persuasion % Persuasion Share = Regional Persuadable Voters / Total Persuadable Voters Region # 1 ’ 08 Projected Turnout : 503 Persuasion Index: 18% Projected Persuadable Voters ____ Persuasion Share ____ Region # 3 ’ 08 Projected Turnout : 986 Persuasion Index: 19% Projected Persuadable Voters ____ Persuasion Share ____ Region # 2 ’ 08 Projected Turnout : 882 Persuasion Index: 12% Projected Persuadable Voters ____ Persuasion Share ____ 14 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  15. 15. A Winnable District Region # 1 ’ 08 Projected Turnout : 503 Persuasion Index: 18% Projected Perusable Voters 91 Persuasion Share 23.6% Region # 3 ’ 08 Projected Turnout : 986 Persuasion Index: 19% Projected Perusable Voters 187 Persuasion Share 48.8% Region # 2 ’ 08 Projected Turnout : 882 Persuasion Index: 12% Projected Perusable Voters 106 Persuasion Share 27.6% District Totals ’ 08 Projected Turnout : 2371 Persuasion Index: 16.2% Projected Perusable Voters 384 Persuasion Share 100% 15 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  16. 16. Questions? <ul><li>Email: nightschool@democracyforamerica.com </li></ul><ul><li>Instant Message: </li></ul><ul><li>DFA Night School </li></ul>16 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  17. 17. Field Targeting Strategies <ul><li>DEM BASE PRECINCTS </li></ul><ul><ul><li>- D.P.I. = greater than 65% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- Identification, voter registration, volunteer recruitment, GOTV </li></ul></ul><ul><li>REPUBLICAN BASE PRECINCTS </li></ul><ul><li>- D.P.I. = less than 35% </li></ul><ul><li>- Lowest priority, highly targeted contact only </li></ul><ul><li>SWING PRECINCTS </li></ul><ul><li>- D.P.I. = between 35% and 65% </li></ul><ul><li>- Identification, Persuasion & GOTV </li></ul>17 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  18. 18. Targeting with Voter History <ul><li>Voter Contact Priorities </li></ul><ul><li>Undecideds likely to Vote (ID, Persuasion) </li></ul><ul><li>Supporters less likely to vote (ID, GOTV) </li></ul><ul><li>Undecideds less likely to vote (ID, Persuasion, GOTV) </li></ul><ul><li>Supporters likely to vote (Base building) </li></ul>Partisanship ID Voting History F E E Never Vote (0x4) F C Persuasion #2 B Sometimes Vote (2x4) (0x0) F A Persuasion D Base Always Vote (4x4) Strong Opponent (5) Undecided (2, 3, 4) Strong Supporter (1) 18 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  19. 19. VAN Power One big list of voters for all Democrats The VAN doesn’t fix itself! Contact your local county Democratic Party or DNC organizer for access 19 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  20. 20. <ul><li>Look at your candidate and message </li></ul><ul><li>Identify your supporters in the </li></ul><ul><li>community </li></ul><ul><li>Listen! </li></ul><ul><li>Build bases of support </li></ul>Targeting with Constituencies 20 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  21. 21. Questions <ul><li>Email </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>Instant Message </li></ul><ul><li>DFA Night School </li></ul>21 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  22. 22. Homework <ul><li>Download the attached worksheet </li></ul><ul><li>Click Here to download </li></ul><ul><li>2. Calculate the Vote Goals in your area </li></ul><ul><li>3. Sign up for next month’s Night School </li></ul><ul><li>www.dfalink.com/fieldplan2 </li></ul>22 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  23. 23. Learn more every Month <ul><li>May 28 th 8:30pm ET </li></ul><ul><li>Writing a Field Plan </li></ul><ul><li>Part 2: Tactics, </li></ul><ul><li>Timelines, & </li></ul><ul><li>Benchmarks </li></ul><ul><li>www.dfalink.com/ </li></ul><ul><li>fieldplanpart2 </li></ul>DFA Training Weekends April 26-27 West Long Branch, NJ May 3-4 Rochester, NY May 10-11 Cincinnati, OH May 31-June 1 Pittsburgh, PA June 7-8 Lansing, MI June 14-15 Kansas City, MO June 21-22 Albuquerque, NM July 12-13 Miami, FL July 17-20 Austin, TX Netroots Nation www.democracyforamerica.com/training 23 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  24. 24. Thank you for joining us! Need to catch up on earlier Night School presentations? Order previous semesters on DVD (and help keep Night School free) www.democracyforamerica.com/nightschooldvd Join the DFA Trust www.democracyforamerica.com/trust 24 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
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