Writing a Field Plan April 23rd, 2008 Listen live on: Questions? [email_address] AIM: DFA Night School Paid for by Democracy for America, www.democracyforamerica.com, and not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.

Welcome Back to Night School! What’s New? Streaming live at Blog Talk Radio: New Look: New DFA website coming soon! 2 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com Click here to listen:

What’s New?

Streaming live at Blog Talk Radio:

New Look:

New DFA website coming soon!

Tonight’s Trainers Arshad Hasan DFA Executive Director Night School Host Helen Strain Field Organizer for over 20 years Matt Blizek DFA Training Director Night School Host 3 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Field Planning in 2 Parts This session: 1. Setting Your Vote Goals - Win Number - Vote Goal 2. Targeting Strategies - Geographic - Voting History - Demographic Next Month: 3. Voter Contact Tactics - Canvass - Phones - Mail - Etc 4. Timelines 5. Benchmarks RSVP for Part 2 of this series: www.dfalink.com/fieldplan2 4 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

This session:

1. Setting Your Vote Goals

- Win Number

- Vote Goal

2. Targeting Strategies

- Geographic

- Voting History

- Demographic

Next Month:

3. Voter Contact Tactics

- Canvass

- Phones

- Mail

- Etc

4. Timelines

5. Benchmarks

Your Blueprint for Victory Contains your campaign’s Goals and the Strategies , Tactics , Timelines , and Benchmarks to achieve them Person to person voter contact Delivers a campaign’s message to targeted voters Tactics: Canvass, phone calls, mail literature drops, etc. Builds a grassroots volunteer base A strong Field Organization can help you gain between 3-5% on election day. 5 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Contains your campaign’s Goals and

the Strategies , Tactics , Timelines ,

and Benchmarks to achieve them

Person to person voter contact

Delivers a campaign’s message to

targeted voters

Tactics: Canvass, phone calls, mail

literature drops, etc.

Builds a grassroots volunteer base

What’s Your Win Number? Step 1: Project the turnout: Step 3: Write them down! % Turnout in last similar election(s) Current number of registered voters x Projected Turnout = Win Number = (Projected Turnout / 2) + 1 Vote Goal = Projected Turnout x .52 Step 2: Set Your Goals 6 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Step 1: Project the turnout:

Targeting Your Resources Why target? Limited People, Money & Time Gets the right message to the right voters 3 Ways to Target Voters Geographically Voter History & Identification Constituencies Research Suggestions Secretary of State County Elections Board Party Voter File NCEC US Census data 7 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Why target?

Limited People, Money & Time

Gets the right message to the right voters

3 Ways to Target Voters

Geographically

Voter History & Identification

Constituencies

Research Suggestions

Secretary of State

County Elections Board

Party Voter File

NCEC

US Census data

Calculate Your Vote Goals District Total Current Registration: 5124 ’ 04 Turnout %: 46.3% ’ 08 Projected Turnout ____ Win Number ____ Vote Goal (52%) ____ Formula Key Projected Turnout = Current Registration x 04 Turnout % Win Number = (Projected Turnout / 2) + 1 Vote Goal = Projected Turnout x .52 Region # 3 Current Registration: 1897 ’ 04 Turnout %: 52% ’ 08 Projected Turnout ____ Win Number _ ___ Vote Goal (52%) ____ Region # 2 Current Registration: 1603 ’ 04 Turnout %: 55% ’ 08 Projected Turnout ____ Win Number ____ Vote Goal (52%) ____ Region # 1 Current Registration: 1624 ’ 04 Turnout %: 31% ’ 08 Projected Turnout ____ Win Number ____ Vote Goal (52%) ____ 8 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

We need at least 1146 votes to win District Total Current Registration: 5124 ’ 04 Turnout: 46.3% ’ 08 Projected Turnout 2371 Win Number 1187 Vote Goal (52%) 1233 Region # 3 Current Registration: 1897 ’ 04 Turnout: 52% ’ 08 Projected Turnout 986 Win Number 494 Vote Goal (52%) 513 Region # 2 Current Registration: 1603 ’ 04 Turnout: 55% ’ 08 Projected Turnout 882 Win Number 442 Vote Goal (52%) 458 Region # 1 Current Registration: 1624 ’ 04 Turnout: 31% ’ 08 Projected Turnout 503 Win Number 253 Vote Goal (52%) 262 9 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Democratic Performance Index ‘ Percentage of the vote an average Dem can expect in an average election’ Based on voting history NOT voter registration How to calculate D.P.I About NCEC Democratic % in similar election # 1 + Democratic % in similar election # 2 + Democratic % in similar election # 3 / 3 = D.P.I. { } 10 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

‘ Percentage of the vote an average Dem can expect in an average election’

Based on voting history NOT voter registration

How to calculate D.P.I

About NCEC

Find the Democrats! Region # 1 08 Projected Turnout: 503 Dem Performance Index: 69% Projected Dem Turnout ____ Vote Goal (52%) 262 Vote difference ____ Region # 3 08 Projected Turnout: 986 Dem Performance Index: 48% Projected Dem Turnout ____ Vote Goal (52%) 513 Vote difference ____ Region # 2 08 Projected Turnout: 882 Dem Performance Index: 31% Projected Dem Turnout ____ Vote Goal (52%) 458 Vote difference ____ District Totals 08 Projected Turnout: 2371 Dem Performance Index: 46.1% Projected Dem Turnout ____ Vote Goal (52%) 1233 Vote difference ____ Formula Key Projected Dem Turnout = Turnout Projection x D.P.I. Vote Difference = Projected Dem Turnout – Vote Goal 11 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Not enough Democrats to win Region # 1 08 Projected Turnout: 503 Dem Performance Index: 69% Projected Dem Turnout 347 Vote Goal (52%) 262 Vote difference 85 Region # 3 08 Projected Turnout: 986 Dem Performance Index: 48% Projected Dem Turnout 473 Vote Goal (52%) 513 Vote difference -39 Region # 2 08 Projected Turnout: 882 Dem Performance Index: 31% Projected Dem Turnout 273 Vote Goal (52%) 458 Vote difference -185 District Totals 08 Projected Turnout: 2371 Dem Performance Index: 46.1% Projected Dem Turnout 1094 Vote Goal (52%) 1233 Vote difference -139 12 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

How many persuadable voters are out there? Method # 1: Look for the blowouts to determine the Base Vote AKA ‘Yellow Dog’ Democrats Method # 2: Compare campaigns with the same constituents 100% - Democrat Base % - Republican Base % Persuasion Index Candidate % of vote in District Dem Governor 57% Dem State Senate 46% 57% - 46% = 11% of the voters are persuadable 13 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Method # 1:

Look for the blowouts to determine the Base Vote

AKA ‘Yellow Dog’ Democrats

Method # 2:

Compare campaigns with the same constituents

Find the Persuadable Voters District Totals ’ 08 Projected Turnout : 2371 Persuasion Index: 16.2% Projected Perusable Voters 384 Persuasion Share ___ Formula Key Projected Persuadable Voters = Turnout Projection x Persuasion % Persuasion Share = Regional Persuadable Voters / Total Persuadable Voters Region # 1 ’ 08 Projected Turnout : 503 Persuasion Index: 18% Projected Persuadable Voters ____ Persuasion Share ____ Region # 3 ’ 08 Projected Turnout : 986 Persuasion Index: 19% Projected Persuadable Voters ____ Persuasion Share ____ Region # 2 ’ 08 Projected Turnout : 882 Persuasion Index: 12% Projected Persuadable Voters ____ Persuasion Share ____ 14 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

A Winnable District Region # 1 ’ 08 Projected Turnout : 503 Persuasion Index: 18% Projected Perusable Voters 91 Persuasion Share 23.6% Region # 3 ’ 08 Projected Turnout : 986 Persuasion Index: 19% Projected Perusable Voters 187 Persuasion Share 48.8% Region # 2 ’ 08 Projected Turnout : 882 Persuasion Index: 12% Projected Perusable Voters 106 Persuasion Share 27.6% District Totals ’ 08 Projected Turnout : 2371 Persuasion Index: 16.2% Projected Perusable Voters 384 Persuasion Share 100% 15 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Questions? Email: nightschool@democracyforamerica.com Instant Message: DFA Night School 16 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Email: nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Instant Message:

DFA Night School

Field Targeting Strategies DEM BASE PRECINCTS - D.P.I. = greater than 65% - Identification, voter registration, volunteer recruitment, GOTV REPUBLICAN BASE PRECINCTS - D.P.I. = less than 35% - Lowest priority, highly targeted contact only SWING PRECINCTS - D.P.I. = between 35% and 65% - Identification, Persuasion & GOTV 17 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

DEM BASE PRECINCTS

- D.P.I. = greater than 65%

- Identification, voter registration, volunteer recruitment, GOTV

REPUBLICAN BASE PRECINCTS

- D.P.I. = less than 35%

- Lowest priority, highly targeted contact only

SWING PRECINCTS

- D.P.I. = between 35% and 65%

- Identification, Persuasion & GOTV

Targeting with Voter History Voter Contact Priorities Undecideds likely to Vote (ID, Persuasion) Supporters less likely to vote (ID, GOTV) Undecideds less likely to vote (ID, Persuasion, GOTV) Supporters likely to vote (Base building) Partisanship ID Voting History F E E Never Vote (0x4) F C Persuasion #2 B Sometimes Vote (2x4) (0x0) F A Persuasion D Base Always Vote (4x4) Strong Opponent (5) Undecided (2, 3, 4) Strong Supporter (1) 18 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Voter Contact Priorities

Undecideds likely to Vote (ID, Persuasion)

Supporters less likely to vote (ID, GOTV)

Undecideds less likely to vote (ID, Persuasion, GOTV)

Supporters likely to vote (Base building)

VAN Power One big list of voters for all Democrats The VAN doesn’t fix itself! Contact your local county Democratic Party or DNC organizer for access 19 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Look at your candidate and message Identify your supporters in the community Listen! Build bases of support Targeting with Constituencies 20 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Look at your candidate and message

Identify your supporters in the

community

Listen!

Build bases of support

Questions Email [email_address] Instant Message DFA Night School 21 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Email

[email_address]

Instant Message

DFA Night School

Homework Download the attached worksheet Click Here to download 2. Calculate the Vote Goals in your area 3. Sign up for next month’s Night School www.dfalink.com/fieldplan2 22 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Download the attached worksheet

Click Here to download

2. Calculate the Vote Goals in your area

3. Sign up for next month’s Night School

www.dfalink.com/fieldplan2

Learn more every Month May 28 th 8:30pm ET Writing a Field Plan Part 2: Tactics, Timelines, & Benchmarks www.dfalink.com/ fieldplanpart2 DFA Training Weekends April 26-27 West Long Branch, NJ May 3-4 Rochester, NY May 10-11 Cincinnati, OH May 31-June 1 Pittsburgh, PA June 7-8 Lansing, MI June 14-15 Kansas City, MO June 21-22 Albuquerque, NM July 12-13 Miami, FL July 17-20 Austin, TX Netroots Nation www.democracyforamerica.com/training 23 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

May 28 th 8:30pm ET

Writing a Field Plan

Part 2: Tactics,

Timelines, &

Benchmarks

www.dfalink.com/

fieldplanpart2

Thank you for joining us! Need to catch up on earlier Night School presentations? Order previous semesters on DVD (and help keep Night School free) www.democracyforamerica.com/nightschooldvd Join the DFA Trust www.democracyforamerica.com/trust 24 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com