How to Increase Voter Turnout w/ Professor Donald Green September 3rd, 2008 Paid for by Democracy for America, www.democracyforamerica.com, and not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee. Listen live on: Questions? [email_address] AIM: DFA Night School

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Tonight’s Trainers Matt Blizek Night School Host Democracy for America Donald Green Yale Professor & Author Director of the Institution for Social & Policy Studies 3 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Evidence vs. War Stories Why Study GOTV tactics? - Millions spent each year on GOTV - Rigorous evaluation of GOTV tactics helps campaigns avoid squandering resources Randomized experimental design - Voters randomly put into ‘Treatment’ & ‘Control’ groups - Turnout is measured using public records instead of surveys or exit polls 4 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Why Study GOTV tactics?

- Millions spent each year on GOTV

- Rigorous evaluation of GOTV tactics helps campaigns avoid squandering resources

Randomized experimental design

- Voters randomly put into ‘Treatment’ & ‘Control’ groups

- Turnout is measured using public records instead of surveys or exit polls

What Works Make voters feel wanted The more personal the better Don’t simply remind voters, motivate them! -- Have authentic conversations & follow up! Peer pressure Let them know that voting is a matter of public record and that you’re watching 5 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Make voters feel wanted

The more personal the better

Don’t simply remind voters, motivate them!

-- Have authentic conversations & follow up!

Peer pressure

Let them know that voting is a matter of public record and that you’re watching

What Doesn’t Work Short reminders have no effect - Robo calls and email reminders do nothing to increase turnout - Brief calls from commercial phone banks have weak effects Just distributing info isn’t enough - Distributing voter guides ineffective 6 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Short reminders have no effect

- Robo calls and email reminders do nothing to increase turnout

- Brief calls from commercial phone banks have weak effects

Just distributing info isn’t enough

- Distributing voter guides ineffective

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Canvassing Shoe Leather Politics Canvassing Generates Votes - 1 vote for every 14 contacts Indirect persuasion - A canvasser’s message spreads through a multi-voter household Cost Effectiveness Canvassing: $29 per vote 8 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Canvassing Generates Votes

- 1 vote for every 14 contacts

Indirect persuasion

- A canvasser’s message spreads through a multi-voter household

Phonebanks Politics Meets Telemarketing ‘ Robo Calls’ ineffective - Doesn’t matter from whom -1 vote per 1,000+ contacts Commercial Phonebanks typically ineffective - 1 vote per 180 contacts Volunteer Phonebanks work - 1 vote per 38 contacts - Training & supervision needed for quality results Cost Effectiveness Volunteers: $38 per vote Commercial: $53-90 per vote 9 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Voter Turnout Control Phone Calls

‘ Robo Calls’ ineffective

- Doesn’t matter from whom

-1 vote per 1,000+ contacts

Commercial Phonebanks typically ineffective

- 1 vote per 180 contacts

Volunteer Phonebanks work

- 1 vote per 38 contacts

- Training & supervision needed for quality results

Direct Mail & Lit Drops Generally weak effect on turnout No evidence of ‘synergy’ w/ other tactics Lit Drops = 1 vote per 72 drops Direct Mail = 1 vote per 333 pieces Growing evidence that mail with no graphics and a simple civic duty message works best Cost Effectiveness Lit Drops: $46+ per vote Direct Mail: $67+ per vote 10 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Generally weak effect on turnout

No evidence of ‘synergy’ w/ other tactics

Lit Drops = 1 vote per 72 drops

Direct Mail = 1 vote per 333 pieces

Growing evidence that mail with no graphics and a simple civic duty message works best

Other GOTV Tactics Mass Media Targeted ads seem to have an effect: Example of Rock The Vote in 2004 & Spanish Language Radio in 2006 Election Day events, Debates & Seminars Make civic engagement engaging Email & Text Messages Email does not increase turnout Text messages may work, but need more study 11 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Mass Media

Targeted ads seem to have an effect: Example of Rock The Vote in 2004 & Spanish Language Radio in 2006

Election Day events, Debates & Seminars

Make civic engagement engaging

Email & Text Messages

Email does not increase turnout

Text messages may work, but need more study

Frontiers of GOTV Research Effects of social networks Contact from family, friends, coworkers and other social ties has a strong effect Following up with “Yes” voters Large effects of follow-up calls with those who earlier express an intention to vote ‘ Shaming’ effect of publicizing turnout records Publishing, mailing, or distributing turnout records of voters and their neighbors produces large increases in turnout Voting as a habit For every 100 new voters mobilized in a given election, 33 go on to vote in the next election as well 12 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Effects of social networks

Contact from family, friends, coworkers and other social ties has a strong effect

Following up with “Yes” voters

Large effects of follow-up calls with those who earlier express an intention to vote

‘ Shaming’ effect of publicizing turnout records

Publishing, mailing, or distributing turnout records of voters and their neighbors produces large increases in turnout

Voting as a habit

For every 100 new voters mobilized in a given election, 33 go on to vote in the next election as well

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Homework For more GOTV research visit: http://research.yale.edu/GOTV/ Conduct your own GOTV experiment! 14 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

For more GOTV research visit:

http://research.yale.edu/GOTV/

Conduct your own GOTV experiment!

Next Month on Night School Building Your Volunteer Base September 10th, 2008 www.democracyforamerica.com /volunteer Canvassing & Phonebanking September 17th, 2008 www.democracyforamerica.com /canvass www.democracyforamerica.com/trainingrequest Request a DFA Campaign Training in 2009! 15 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

Building Your Volunteer Base

September 10th, 2008

www.democracyforamerica.com /volunteer

Canvassing & Phonebanking

September 17th, 2008

www.democracyforamerica.com /canvass

Thank you for joining us! Need to catch up on earlier Night School presentations? Order previous semesters on DVD: https://democracyforamerica.com/contribute/nightschool Join the DFA Trust www.democracyforamerica.com/trust 16 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com