Understanding the Demands and Preferences of Today’s “Post-traditional” Student, Carol Aslanian, Senior Vice President, Aslanian Market Research
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Understanding the Demands and Preferences of Today’s “Post-traditional” Student, Carol Aslanian, Senior Vice President, Aslanian Market Research

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  • 1. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Adult Students 2013 Carol Aslanian, Senior Vice President, Aslanian Market Research Understanding the Demands and Preferences of Today’s “Post-traditional” Student July 16, 2013
  • 2. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 2004 17.3M 2006 17.8M For-Profit Sector Share: 11% (BMO Cap.) 2008 19.5M 2010 21.6M Overall Higher Education Enrollment (Undergraduate, Graduate, 1st Profess.; fall unduplicated headcount) 2 (NCES – Fall Enrollment) 2012 21.6M • Growth trend flattened beginning 2011 • Enrollments expected to be flat through 2013 Adult students (25+) make up about 50% of all higher education enrollments. Noncredit: 20m+ © Aslanian Market Research
  • 3. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 2020 23.7M 2016 22M …and what’s to come? 3 (NCES – Fall Enrollment) Projections © Aslanian Market Research
  • 4. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 50% of college students finish in four years… …50% do not (DOE) 4 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 5. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 US Higher Education Enrollment Trends Growth by Age Group 2010  2021 18 - 24 years: 10% 25 - 34 years: 20% 35+ years: 25% 5 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 6. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Percent Age 25+ Undergraduate 31% Graduate 81% Total 42% Actual Total Adult Enrollment: About 50% 12-month unduplicated headcount is a better indicator of total adult learner traffic given the nature of adult enrollment. Higher Education Enrollments 6 Source: NCES – Fall Enrollment © Aslanian Market Research
  • 7. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 For-Profit Postsecondary Sector Enrollment and Market Share 2010 2.43m students (11.2% share of all postsecondary enrollments) 2016 2.1m** students (9.4% share of all postsecondary enrollments) (projection) **Market expected to hit bottom in 2013 (9.1%)** Sources: NCES* and BMO Capital** (degree-granting and non degree-granting institutions) 7 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 8. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 FEEDER HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES | 8
  • 9. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 High School Graduation Trends (National) WiCHE 9
  • 10. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 High School Graduation Trends (Regional) Public/Private by Region: 1996-2028 WiCHE 10
  • 11. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 High School Graduates are Changing: Implications for Higher Education? • In 2020+ minority students will outnumber white students on college campuses • One-third of high school graduates will be of Hispanic backgrounds • Will seek convenience and flexibility in higher education • Most will have enrolled in online courses in high school © Aslanian Market Research 11 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 12. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 What does this mean for your Enrollments? • Declining high school graduate pool will lead to more disruption to the traditional higher education market • Declining high school graduate pool will lead to more competitive and crowded traditional higher education market • Colleges must identify and utilize innovative and adaptive methods to attract post-traditional students in order to succeed in current/future environment © Aslanian Market Research 12
  • 13. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Who Are College Students Today? or… 13
  • 14. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 The Changing Profile of a College Student • 27% of all undergraduates today are “traditional” students – 18-24 – living on campus – attend full-time • 73% of all undergraduates today are “post-traditional” – working – live off-campus – financially independent – often first-generation • Note: Approximately 25% of adult students (25+) are seeking “Traditional Study”: day classes, traditional semesters, classes twice per week, etc…) 14 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 15. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 The Future? Tech-Savvy Kids 25% 28% 58% 63% 69% Open a web browser Make a mobile phone call Play a basic computer game Turn a computer on/off Operate a computer mouse Children ages 2-3 whose mothers say they can… 15
  • 16. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 2.3m 3.5m 4.6m 6.1m 9.9m 10.8m* 780k 1.2m 1.8m 2.1m 3.3m 3.4m* 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2016 (est) Took at Least 1 Online Course Took All Courses Online Market Trends in Online Education 16 * 10.8m is based on 10% annual compounded growth (Sloan C estimates 10% growth between 2009-2010) Sources: Eduventures Online Higher Education Market Update 2011; BMO Capital Markets, Education and Training 2012; Babson Survey Research Group, Going the Distance: Online Education in the United States, 2011 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 17. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Future of Online Enrollments 2012 15% of all enrollments 2016 20% of all enrollments (est.) 17 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 18. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Growth rate of online enrollment (while slowing) is 3-4 times the rate of classroom enrollment 18 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 19. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 ADULTS AS STUDENTS 2013 | 19
  • 20. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Adult Students: Snapshot • Aslanian Market Research studies in 20 locations nationwide • Recent undergraduate and graduate students: 25+ years 20 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 21. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 • Majority are female • Getting younger • Majority are non-minority • More returning to undergrad and grad school with advanced credentials • Majority are employed and juggle home, work and study • Most often finance their own study General Personal Characteristics 21 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 22. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Undergraduate To change careers 30% To advance in current career 23% To achieve a specific level of learning / obtain a degree 10% To keep up-to-date in current career 11% To enter a first career 11% Unemployed/underemployed and needed more education in order to get a job 5% Returning to the job market for the first time in several years and needed more education 1% Personal reasons not related to job or career 9% Motivation for Study 22 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 23. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Undergraduate Graduate To change careers 30% 24% To advance in current career 23 39 To achieve a specific level of learning / obtain a degree 10 12 To keep up-to-date in current career 11 10 To enter a first career 11 6 Unemployed/underemployed and needed more education in order to get a job 5 4 Returning to the job market for the first time in several years and needed more education 1 1 Personal reasons not related to job or career 9 5 Motivation for Study 23 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 24. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 • Seek degrees, but also certificates, licenses and courses • Study in career fields • Most often: Business, STEM, Social Sciences and, Health Professions • Prefer shorter/fast-track courses: 10-weeks or less General Learning Patterns 24 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 25. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 • Full-time and part time (degree seekers) (53% vs. 47%) • Evening (55%) AND day (45%) classroom study • Prefer multiple learning options – class/hybrid/online General Learning Patterns (cont.) 25 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 26. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS AT TIME OF ENROLLMENT 26
  • 27. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 32%- Bachelor’s plus Education-Level: Undergraduate 27 20% 20% 18% 9% 21% 4% 5% 1% 1% High school diploma / GED One or two years of college, but no Associate’s degree Associate’s degree Three or four years of college, but no Bachelor’s degree Bachelor’s degree Some graduate courses but no Master’s degree Master’s degree Some graduate courses beyond a Master’s degree, but no Doctorate Doctorate © Aslanian Market Research
  • 28. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 32%- Master’s plus Education-Level: Graduate 28 57% 11% 25% 4% 3% Bachelor’s degree Some graduate courses but no Master’s degree Master’s degree Some graduate courses beyond a Master’s degree, but no Doctorate Doctorate © Aslanian Market Research
  • 29. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Age at Time of Study 29 Undergraduate Graduate 25-29 24 27 30-39 26 26 40-49 20 17 50-59 17 18 60 and older 7 5 Median 32 Years 33 Years © Aslanian Market Research
  • 30. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Gender 30 Undergraduate Graduate Female 71% 67% Male 28 32 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 31. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Ethnicity 31 Undergraduate Graduate White 77% 79% African-American 7 5 Asian or Pacific Islander 6 9 Hispanic 5 3 Native American 1 1 Other 2 1 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 32. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Employment Status at Time of Study 32 Undergraduate Graduate Employed full time 56% 69% Employed part time 19 16 Not employed 19 13 Retired 4 2 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 33. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Income at Time of Study 33 Undergraduate Graduate Under $25,000 15% 10% $25,000 - $39,999 16 11 $40,000 - $54,999 15 11 $55,000 - $69,999 13 13 $70,000 - $84,999 11 12 $85,000 - $99,999 9 12 $100,000 - $114,999 8 9 $115,000 - $129,000 4 6 $130,000 - $149,000 3 5 More than $150,000 5 12 Median income $55,000 $70,000 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 34. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 HOW DO THEY PAY FOR COURSES? | 34
  • 35. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Course Payment Method 35 Undergraduate Graduate Personal funds 61% 65% Student loans 38 34 Pell Grants or other federal/state/local government grants and scholarships 28 14 Tuition reimbursement 17 28 Personal loans 8 10 Private scholarships 7 9 Assistantships/tuition waivers 4 10 Military/Veterans' benefits 2 2 Other 3 2 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 36. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 WHAT CREDENTIALS DO THEY SEEK? | 36
  • 37. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Credential - Undergraduate 37 Enrolled in a degree program 32% Courses for transfer to a Bachelor’s degree program 21% Certificate, license, or diploma in a professional area 27% Individual Courses 20% © Aslanian Market Research
  • 38. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Degree Level Pursued- Undergraduate 38 Associate 16% Bachelor’s 84% © Aslanian Market Research
  • 39. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Credential - Graduate 39 Enrolled in a degree program 59%Courses for transfer to a Bachelor’s degree program 17% Certificate, license, or diploma in a professional area 24% © Aslanian Market Research
  • 40. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Degree Level Pursued- Graduate 40 Master’s 81% Doctorate 19% © Aslanian Market Research
  • 41. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 FULL-TIME OR PART-TIME STUDY? | 41
  • 42. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Full-Time/Part-time Study 42 Full- time 52% Part- time 48% Undergraduate Full- time 45% Part- time 55% Graduate © Aslanian Market Research
  • 43. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 DO THEY PREFER DAY, EVENING, OR WEEKEND STUDY IF TAKING A CLASSROOM COURSE? | 43
  • 44. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Time of Day For Classroom Courses - Preferred 44 3% 27% 16% 44% 5% 5% 2% 17% 12% 56% 8% 5% Weekday early mornings Weekday mornings Weekday afternoons Weekday evenings Weekends No classroom courses - online only Undergraduate Graduate © Aslanian Market Research
  • 45. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 ARE THEY ATTRACTED TO HYBRID AND ONLINE STUDY? | 45
  • 46. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Actual/Preferred Format of Study: Undergraduate 46 76% 33% 44%43% 43% 26% Classroom Hybrid Online Only Actual* Preferred * Respondents may give more than one response © Aslanian Market Research
  • 47. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Actual/Preferred Format of Study: Graduate 47 72% 32% 40% 45% 33% 22% Classroom Hybrid Online Only Actual* Preferred * Respondents may give more than one response © Aslanian Market Research
  • 48. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 DO THEY PREFER ACCELERATED COURSES? | 48
  • 49. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Actual/Preferred Number of Weeks for a Course: Undergraduate 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35 15 weeks or more 14 weeks 13 weeks 12 weeks 11 weeks 10 weeks 9 weeks 8 weeks 7 weeks 6 weeks 5 weeks 4 weeks 3 weeks 2 weeks 1 week Preferred Actual Median Preferred: 10 Weeks 49 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 50. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 15 weeks or more 14 weeks 13 weeks 12 weeks 11 weeks 10 weeks 9 weeks 8 weeks 7 weeks 6 weeks 5 weeks 4 weeks 3 weeks 2 weeks 1 week Preferred Actual Actual/Preferred Number of Weeks for a Course: Graduate 50 Median Preferred: 10 Weeks © Aslanian Market Research
  • 51. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 WHAT SUBJECTS DO THEY MOST OFTEN STUDY? | 51
  • 52. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Undergrad Degrees Business STEM Social Sciences Health Professions Humanities/Liberal Arts Education Graduate Degrees Business Education Health Professions Social Sciences STEM Humanities/Liberal Arts Subject Field of Study (in order of market demand) 52 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 53. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 HOW DO THEY BECOME AWARE OF YOUR COLLEGE DURING THEIR SEARCH? | 53
  • 54. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Internet Search Engines College Search Sites Mail to Home Emails Television Ads Ads on Websites Radio Ads Newspaper Ads Billboards Bus/Train Ads (On a scale of 5) 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 Methods of Raising Awareness of Colleges: Undergraduate 54 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 55. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Internet Search Engines College Search Sites Mail to Home Emails Television Ads Ads on Websites Radio Ads Newspaper Ads Billboards Bus/Train Ads (On a scale of 5) 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 Methods of Raising Awareness of Colleges: Graduate 55 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 56. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 Podcasts Blogs Social Media Fan Pages Faculty/student Chats Online Open House Undergraduate Graduate Likely to Use Online Outreach (5-point scale) 56 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 57. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 What Social Media do Adults Use? 57 15% 4% 5% 25% 50% 78% 15% 2% 8% 26% 38% 79% None Other MySpace Twitter LinkedIn Facebook Undergraduate Graduate © Aslanian Market Research
  • 58. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 30% make NO direct contact with college until they submit their application. 58 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 59. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Current or Former Students The College’s Website Friend, Family, Co-workers Radio Ads Newspaper Ads Television Ads Direct Mail Other 29% 23 19 10 5 5 4 5 Primary Sources of Information About the Preferred College 59 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 60. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 College Characteristics That Led Respondents to Apply: Undergraduate 60 Availability of a particular course or program 30% Proximity of college to home or work 19 Cost of tuition and fees 18 Day and time courses meet 8 Reputation of the college or program 8 Accreditation of the college or program 3 Availability of online instruction 5 Length of time to complete my studies 5 Transferability of previously earned credits 1 Something else 3 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 61. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 College Characteristics That Led Respondents to Apply: Graduate 61 Proximity of college to home or work 21% Cost of tuition and fees 21 Day and time courses meet 21 Availability of a particular course or program 12 Reputation of the college or program 11 Availability of online instruction 7 Accreditation of the college or program 2 Length of time to complete my studies 2 Transferability of previously earned credits 3 Something else 1 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 62. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 RETAINING ADULT STUDENTS: WHAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE? | 62
  • 63. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 •Convenient schedules •Multiple formats •Adequate supply of courses at the right time •Recognizing that “life can interfere” •Tracking and follow-up… •ROI What Makes the Difference? 63 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 64. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 ISSUES AND OPPORTUNITIES | 64
  • 65. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 • Cost and reputation matter most • Rising importance of “brand” • Increasing acquisition costs/limited marketing budgets • Electronic marketing and recruitment Issues | 65 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 66. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Issues | 66 • Keeping up with market demand - continuous market research • Tracking and follow-up of inquiries and applicants • Expanding demand for online format • Importance of local/ground presence for online delivery © Aslanian Market Research
  • 67. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 • Younger “adult” students • Multiple formats are essential: classroom/hybrid/online • Customer Service/24-7 Operations • Time to completion Issues | 67 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 68. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 • Aging society: “Age 60 is the new age 40 and it has become prime time” • Education matched to today’s jobs Issues | 68 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 69. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 • Stackable certificates • International adult student demand for online education • Declining share of for-profit institutions Opportunities | 69 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 70. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 • Adult student market growth • Non-degree credentials • Hybrid/blended and online learning • Low residence programs Opportunities | 70 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 71. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 • Growth of non-credit career/professional development market • Changing nature of the economy/jobs • U.S. recession driving greater demand for graduate education Opportunities | 71 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 72. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 • Competitive knowledge-based global economy requires workforce to participate in and complete programs • Age no longer predicts learning patterns Opportunities | 72 © Aslanian Market Research
  • 73. CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013 Thank you! 73 Questions? Aslanian Market Research caslanian@educationdynamics.com Office 201.377.3321 Mobile 917.216.1969 Fax 201.653.2970 www.educationdynamics.com adultstudents.educationdynamics.com