DW_ZDayLondon2013

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Presentation given at ZDay London 2013: "A Humanity+ and Singularity perspective on hopes for human sustainability and progress".
For more details of ZDay London see http://zdaylondon2013.eventbrite.co.uk/.

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  • Excellent talk today, watched on youtube and great to get to see the slides.
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DW_ZDayLondon2013

  1. 1. Slideshare.NET : DeltaWisdom : DW_ZDayLondon2013 A Humanity+ and Singularity perspective onhopes for human sustainability and progress David Wood, Catalyst & Futurist, Delta Wisdom, @dw2 http://dw2blog.com/ London Futurists, www.meetup.com/London-Futurists Z-Day London 2013 1
  2. 2. Five themes1. Plans for better, more sustainable social structures need to pay attention to factors causing large change – Otherwise we’ll be solving “yesterday’s problems”2. Technology’s impact on society is accelerating – With increasingly dramatic effect, both positive & negative3. It’s hard to predict the future (“the future is opaque”) – But we can (and must) learn to do it better4. There are many possible near-future scenarios – Our actions can (and must) make a decisive difference5. Key concepts to watch out for… Z-Day London 2013 2
  3. 3. It’s hard to predict the future Z-Day London 2013Source: Newsweek, January 2011 3
  4. 4. The conceptual language of futurists• Chinese?• Accelerating change – Driven by positive feedback circles• Convergence – When accelerating changes collide• Singularity – Where things could be headed, sooner than expected• Humanity+ – A philosophy to make sense of all the above Z-Day London 2013 4
  5. 5. It’s hard to predict the future Z-Day London 2013Source: Newsweek, January 2011 5
  6. 6. Newsweek birth and (?)rebirth Z-Day London 2013http://adage.com/article/the-media-guy/print-newsweek-covers/238918/ 6
  7. 7. Newspaper ad revenue ? Z-Day London 2013http://mjperry.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/freefall-adjusted-for-inflation-print.html 7
  8. 8. Collapse of newspaper ad revenue Z-Day London 2013http://mjperry.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/freefall-adjusted-for-inflation-print.html 8
  9. 9. A world of converging technology Are impacted & transformed Z-Day London 2013 9
  10. 10. Collisions and collapses Z-Day London 2013http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/hmv-collapse-live-blog-follow-1534816 10
  11. 11. Collisions and collapses Z-Day London 2013http://www.digitaltrends.com/home-theater/blockbuster-uk-administration/ 11
  12. 12. A world of converging technology Are impacted & transformed Z-Day London 2013 14
  13. 13. A world of converging technology Are impacted & enhanced Z-Day London 2013 15
  14. 14. A world of converging technology Are impacted & transformed ? Are impacted & enhanced Z-Day London 2013 16
  15. 15. Convergence in the last decade 2000-2010-… “Smartphones for all”• Increasingly smart mobile phones • More CPU, more data, more network bandwidth• Used by more and more people, worldwide• Converging & delivering more and more utility • Colour, Cameras, Rich Messaging, Browsing, Social Networks, Games, Maps, Augmented Reality, Buying & Selling• Generating more and more business • And disrupting more and more business (winners and losers) Z-Day London 2013 17
  16. 16. Convergence in this decade 2000-2010-… 2000-2010-… “Smartphones for all” “Smartphones for all” 2011-2015... “Smartphone technology everywhere”A disruptive new wave of convergence of embedded software Z-Day London 2013 18
  17. 17. Information in our glasses Z-Day London 2013www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/06/sergey-brin-google-glasses_n_1408488.html 19
  18. 18. Golden-i voice-controlled Headset Computer“The Golden-i Operating System (Gi-OS) provides a user friendlyinterface and a complete set of core applications.Available now on selected Golden-i headsets, revolutionizing theway people work through hands-free technology.Gi-OS includes a new high performance hardware acceleratedgraphics subsystem, built on an OpenGL that includes support fortransparencies and transition animations to create a professionallook and feel for your applications.”http://www.ikanosconsulting.com/home/ Z-Day London 2013James Bond-esque video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpBwRX68fIY 20
  19. 19. Smartphone technology embedded everywhere “Feature phones” / “Touch phones” / “Super phones” Wearable computers: Tablets / Slates uniforms, watches, spectacles Consumer electronics: Connected homes: cameras, eReaders, toys... Smart TVs, Heating, Security Smart, connected cars Smart meters and grids In Vehicle Infotainment (IVI) Industrial automation Smart digital signs (smart connected robots) Smart micro-bots Mobile medical devices (and nano-bots…) Your suggestions here! Z-Day London 2013 21
  20. 20. Kindle books vs. physical books E-books leapfrog physical books at Amazon 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Z-Day London 2013www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch 22
  21. 21. Accelerating progress• A desktop PC purchased in 1989 came equipped with a 20 megabyte hard disk• A USB external hard disk purchased in 2009, for roughly the same amount of money (taking account of inflation), was 2 terabytes in size• That’s an increase of 100,000 times over 20 years• Broadly equivalent to hard disks doubling in size, without the price increasing, every 14.5 months over that 20 year period• Exponential growth – example of Moore’s Law Z-Day London 2013 23
  22. 22. (Gordon) Moore’s Law: 1965 The number of transistors on a chip will double about every two years (Doubling period originally stated as every one year) Z-Day London 2013www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/events/moores_law_40th/ 24
  23. 23. Improvement in energy efficiency of computing Computations per kWh, 1940-2010 10^3 to 10^15 40 doublings over 60 years: 18 months average doubling Source: Johnathan Koomey, Technology Review, 9 Apr 2012 Z-Day London 2013 25
  24. 24. The next five years (2013-2018)? x 21/3 x2 x2 x218 months 18 months 18 months +6 Technology x 10 Faster… Cheaper… Smaller… Z-Day London 2013 26
  25. 25. Improvement in wireless networks Cooper’s Law: The amount of information that can be transmitted over useful radio spectrum has roughly doubled every 30 months since 1895 Z-Day London 2013www.arraycomm.com/technology/coopers-law 27
  26. 26. Positive feedback cycles Computers Design, Manufacturing Z-Day London 2013 28
  27. 27. Positive feedback cycles Software Software tools (debuggers, compilers…) Z-Day London 2013 29
  28. 28. Positive feedback cycles Technology Education Z-Day London 2013 30
  29. 29. Positive feedback cycles TechnologyNetworks People Education Z-Day London 2013 31
  30. 30. Positive feedback cycles Technology PlatformDevelopers Consumers Marketing Z-Day London 2013 32
  31. 31. Positive feedback cycles TechnologyEntrepreneurs Citizens Politics Z-Day London 2013 33
  32. 32. Example of progress by combination • Over 800 million unique users visit YouTube each month • Over 4 billion hours of video watched each month • 72 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube every minute • 70% of YouTube traffic comes from outside the US • In 2011, YouTube had more than 1 trillion views – or around 140 views for every person on Earth • Technologies enabling You Tube explosion – Proliferation of Internet users – Fast Internet access – Ubiquitous cameras (including in smartphones) – Cheap storage and fast processingwww.youtube.com/t/press_statistics Z-Day London 2013Michell Zappa: http://envisioningtech.com/ 34
  33. 33. Example of progress by combination • Technologies enabling Kindle explosion – Cheap storage + Innovative business model – Low energy screens – High-speed “Whisper net” wireless distribution – Huge catalog of books available to purchase Z-Day London 2013Michell Zappa: http://envisioningtech.com/ 35
  34. 34. Basis for radically improving healthcare “Technology super-convergence”• Miniature sensors • Ubiquitous smartphones• Imaging & scanning • Communications facilities• 3D manufacturing • Next generation social• Electronic medical networks records • Huge computing power• Synthetic biology • Expert decision systems• Personalised genomics • Online medical training Z-Day London 2013http://CreativeDestructionOfMedicine.com/ – Eric Topol MD 36
  35. 35. Technology NBIC mega-convergence Atoms Genes Nano- Bio- Tech Tech S^ ? Cogno- ICT Tech Neurons Bits Z-Day London 2013http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/Report/NBIC_report.pdf 38
  36. 36. The Singularity (S^)• We can no longer predict what happens next• Computers / robots more intelligent than humans• More generally intelligent than humans• They can create even better computers / robots• => Rapid, recursive, self-improvement cycle…• Super-intelligent systems could solve many existing deep human problems (disease, death, economics…)• But first we have to get there… (perhaps 15-30 years)• Surviving the next 15-30 years will be ultra-critical Z-Day London 2013 39
  37. 37. The Singularity Race Negative PositiveSingularity Singularity Z-Day London 2013 40
  38. 38. Winning the Singularity Race Negative Positive Singularity Singularity Embrace enhancing humanity Turn H into H+ Z-Day London 2013 41
  39. 39. The Humanity+ vision • Humanity is on the brink of a momentous leap forwards in evolution – If we are wise and strong, we can make that leap • This evolutionary transformation takes advantage of rapidly improving technology – Technology that arises from positive virtuous cycles and unprecedented interdisciplinary convergence – This technology will grant us awesome powers: the power to capture ample energy from the Sun, the atom, and beyond; the power to synthesise new materials to rejuvenate our environment and fuel our societies; the power to realise an unparalleled abundance of health, security, vigour, vitality, creativity, knowledge, and experience Z-Day London 2013http://dw2blog.com/2013/02/04/responding-to-the-call-for-a-new-humanity-manifesto/ 42
  40. 40. The Humanity+ vision (continued) • But technology is a two-edged sword – Alongside the potential for transcendent improvement lies the potential for existential destruction – We face fearsome perils of environmental catastrophe, unstoppable new plagues and pathogens, rampant unemployment and alienation, the collapse of world financial markets, pervasive systems of unresponsive computers and moronically intelligent robots that act in frustration to human desires, horrific new weaponry that could easily fall into the wrong hands and precipitate Armageddon, and intensive mechanisms for draconian surveillance and thought control • Continuing the status quo is not an option – Any quest for sustainability of current lifestyles is a delusion. We cannot stay still, and we cannot retreat. The only way to survive is radical enhancement – moving from Humanity to Humanity+ Z-Day London 2013http://dw2blog.com/2013/02/04/responding-to-the-call-for-a-new-humanity-manifesto/ 43
  41. 41. 10 dramatic changes in 5-10 yrs1. Smartphone technology everywhere2. Personalised digital medicine; synthetic organs…3. Smart drugs – boost concentration, memory4. 3D printers and 3D scanners – reduction of waste5. Growth of connected intelligent systems (AIs) (IoT)6. Driverless cars7. Robots increasingly displace humans from workforce8. Large numbers of intelligent, diligent unemployed9. Need new model of social justice to cope – Quickly!10. Political parties need to transform to remain relevant Z-Day London 2013 44
  42. 42. Recap: Five themes1. Plans for better, more sustainable social structures need to pay attention to factors causing large change – Otherwise we’ll be solving “yesterday’s problems”2. Technology’s impact on society is accelerating – With increasingly dramatic effect, both positive & negative3. It’s hard to predict the future (“the future is opaque”) – But we can (and must) learn to do it better4. There are many possible near-future scenarios – Our actions can (and must) make a decisive difference5. Key concepts to watch out for – Accelerating change, convergence, Singularity, Humanity+ Z-Day London 2013 45
  43. 43. Recommended further readinghttp://www.singularityweblog.com/ http://hplusmagazine.com/ http://transhumanity.net/ Z-Day London 2013 46
  44. 44. Recommended further readingMark Stevenson Joel Garreau James Hughes Z-Day London 2013 47
  45. 45. Recommended further reading Z-Day London 2013 48
  46. 46. Slideshare.NET : DeltaWisdom : DW_ZDayLondon2013 A Humanity+ and Singularity perspective onhopes for human sustainability and progress David Wood, Catalyst & Futurist, Delta Wisdom, @dw2 http://dw2blog.com/ London Futurists, www.meetup.com/London-Futurists Z-Day London 2013 49

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