0
Jan van der WaardRegional Modelapplication inThe NetherlandsKIMNetherlands Institute forTransport Policy Analysis
KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis•  Research institute within the Netherlands Ministry of Infrastruc...
Products and services•  Demand-driven research on strategic policy questions•  Knowledge transfer in policy processes“Know...
KiM is part of the Ministry, but…•  Research content isindependent of policy orpolitics•  All research studies are peer-re...
Model development in the Ministry•  By Rijkswaterstaat (RWS):–  The implementation agency of the Ministry of Infrastructur...
Model development in the Ministry•  By Rijkswaterstaat (RWS):–  The implementation agency of the Ministry of Infrastructur...
What are models used for?•  Future reconnaissance–  problem identification•  Policy impact assessment–  to compare impacts...
The model landscapeLMSNRMMIXICSaturnModeledperiodFLOSIMIntegrationFREQFOSIMroutechoiceurbannetworklinkssectionwegvakregion...
The RWSmodel setMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
LMS•  National Model System for Traffic and Transport•  Designed to make forecasts of mobility at national scale, and theu...
NRM•  NRM stands for Netherlands Regional Model•  Based on the same model philosophy as the LMS, but on aregional scale (4...
LMS/NRM•  Both LMS and NRM take into account choice behaviour relatingto car ownership, number of journeys, destinations, ...
Measure:Widening the A2Travel times and-cost car trafficCongestion:-  Travel times-  Travel costs-  SpeedsDistribution eff...
NRM applications (1)Impact assessment of alternative infrastructure options•  Supply of network design characteristics, te...
NRM applications (2)Impact assessment of alternative infrastructure options•  Information for CBA methodologies used at di...
NRM applications (3)Impact assessment of alternative infrastructure options•  Environmental impact assessment report (MER)...
Issues to remember in application•  Each model is an abstraction of reality•  The future is “unknowable”–  Many “futures” ...
Each model is an abstraction of reality !Ministry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Trans...
VRU NRMDifferent abstractions of realityMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transp...
The future is “unknowable”•  All “futures” are possible–  Some are more likely to happen–  Some are less likely to happen•...
An example of “reconnaissance”The WLO Scenario study; 2004 (prosperity and the environment)•  4 scenarios for national soc...
Personal mobility (personkilometres) under thefour different WLO assumptions
Travel time delay on the motorway network under thefour different WLO assumptionsMinistry of Infrastructure and the Enviro...
Travel time delay on motorway network in 2020GE RCMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute ...
The model has uncertainty•  From base year description–  Never better than the base year description•  From specification–...
NRM output + / - projectPlotted differences=Difference in flow with orwithout the projectExample modelaccuracyMinistry of ...
Example modelaccuracyFlow differences significantlydifferent from “0”Ministry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Net...
Example modelaccuracyUsing these values impliesa risk to the decision makingprocessMinistry of Infrastructure and the Envi...
•  Model application takes time–  not the model runtime–  collecting relevant assumptions and translating these into model...
Model complexity,means a high probability of “mistakes”•  The A4 “incident”3 lanes instead of 4 codedon A4-A13 connection ...
31 17/4/13Ministery of Infrastructure and the Environment
Model complexity,means a high probability of “mistakes”•  The A4 “incident”3 lanes instead of 4 codedon A4-A13 connection ...
Co-ordination – The “How”•  Steering towards corporate approach by meansof co-ordinating and directing:–  Development:•  U...
The transport model application is only one ofmany aspects of the policy planning processMinistry of Infrastructure and th...
The model application dilemmaPolicy processwants detailsPolicy processwants certaintyModels getcomplex ->detailed inputOne...
Lessons•  Only use the model for the purpose it was build for;–  “to gain insight in possible impacts under given conditio...
Remember that all models arewrong; the practical question ishow wrong do they have to be,not to be useful(Box and Draper, ...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Transportation and Spatial Modelling: Lecture 13a

328

Published on

Published in: Technology, News & Politics
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
328
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
6
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "Transportation and Spatial Modelling: Lecture 13a"

  1. 1. Jan van der WaardRegional Modelapplication inThe NetherlandsKIMNetherlands Institute forTransport Policy Analysis
  2. 2. KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis•  Research institute within the Netherlands Ministry of Infrastructureand Environment•  Established in 2006 to support evidence-based transportpolicymakingMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  3. 3. Products and services•  Demand-driven research on strategic policy questions•  Knowledge transfer in policy processes“Knowledge-at-the table”Ministry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  4. 4. KiM is part of the Ministry, but…•  Research content isindependent of policy orpolitics•  All research studies are peer-reviewed•  All publications are publicRelationship with modelling:•  Application in our own projects•  Articulation of demand for decision support information for MinistryMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  5. 5. Model development in the Ministry•  By Rijkswaterstaat (RWS):–  The implementation agency of the Ministry of Infrastructure andthe EnvironmentMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  6. 6. Model development in the Ministry•  By Rijkswaterstaat (RWS):–  The implementation agency of the Ministry of Infrastructure andthe EnvironmentMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  7. 7. What are models used for?•  Future reconnaissance–  problem identification•  Policy impact assessment–  to compare impacts of alternativeoptions–  to test impacts of options againstrequired standards•  Ex-post evaluation–  Models enable the impacts ofpolicy measures to be isolatedfrom other factorsMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  8. 8. The model landscapeLMSNRMMIXICSaturnModeledperiodFLOSIMIntegrationFREQFOSIMroutechoiceurbannetworklinkssectionwegvakregionalnetworknationalnetworktenthsof secondsseconds minutes 15 min hours daysspaceestaticESIMWaiting timechttijden-modelMETANETMADAM INDY.DynasmartdynamicNo routechoiceProjectionhours dayspeak periods years15 minTIGRIS XLRBVALBATROSS
  9. 9. The RWSmodel setMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  10. 10. LMS•  National Model System for Traffic and Transport•  Designed to make forecasts of mobility at national scale, and theuse of the main road and rail network.•  Used to assist in strategic policy development on a national scale•  Developed and owned by Rijkswaterstaat•  Applications performed by a limited number of consultants•  Applications assigned by various parties in- and outside theMinistryMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  11. 11. NRM•  NRM stands for Netherlands Regional Model•  Based on the same model philosophy as the LMS, but on aregional scale (4 models covering the country).•  Designed to produce regional transport and trafficforecasts•  Used for carrying out planning, exploratory and otherstudies•  An importants source of information on mobility in aregion. It provides a better understanding and theinformation required to develop regional transport policy•  Build under responsibility of Regional Offices of RWS, in co-operation with Provinces•  Most applications are performed by consultantsMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  12. 12. LMS/NRM•  Both LMS and NRM take into account choice behaviour relatingto car ownership, number of journeys, destinations, modes oftransport and, for cars, departure times and routes.•  ‘4 stage’ models with sub models for driving licence acquisitionand car ownership.•  Highly disaggregated, incl. spatial characteristics•  Pivot point method:accurate description of base year combined with growthfactors•  Based on cross section data (2004)Ministry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  13. 13. Measure:Widening the A2Travel times and-cost car trafficCongestion:-  Travel times-  Travel costs-  SpeedsDistribution effectsCosts / benefitsExternal effects(emissions, safety)Reference-situation 2020Changed demand-  Routes-  Periods-  Travel modes-  Destinations-  FrequenciesOn the network:-  Volumes-  Vehicle occupancy-  PT- and cycle useImpactassessmentofalternativeinfrastructureoptionsModelapplicationsMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  14. 14. NRM applications (1)Impact assessment of alternative infrastructure options•  Supply of network design characteristics, testing against policytargets–  RWS internal quality standard = use NRM for traffic data–  Traffic flow, V/C-ratios at link level–  Travel time ratios at route level–  Travel time delay at network levelMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  15. 15. NRM applications (2)Impact assessment of alternative infrastructure options•  Information for CBA methodologies used at different stages ofplanning process, (using national CBA framework (OEI))–  Framework prescribes the use of NRM–  Methods used set by Cabinet (Parliament approval)–  RWS internal quality standard = use NRM for traffic data–  Travel time data at link levelMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  16. 16. NRM applications (3)Impact assessment of alternative infrastructure options•  Environmental impact assessment report (MER) includingtesting against legally set targets for noise, local airquality (NOx, PMx, etc.), nature quality, water quality–  Legal requirements to estimate impacts, but no standards fortransport model use–  RWS internal quality standard = use NRM for traffic data–  Traffic flow data at link levelMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  17. 17. Issues to remember in application•  Each model is an abstraction of reality•  The future is “unknowable”–  Many “futures” are possible–  All input data for “The Future” have a high uncertainty•  The model itself has uncertainty–  Base year description, model parameters•  Model complexity means a high probability of mistakes–  It takes time; high risks for the planning process•  The transport model application is only one of many aspects of thepolicy planning processMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  18. 18. Each model is an abstraction of reality !Ministry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  19. 19. VRU NRMDifferent abstractions of realityMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  20. 20. The future is “unknowable”•  All “futures” are possible–  Some are more likely to happen–  Some are less likely to happen•  All input data for “a future scenario” have a high uncertainty•  The model itself has uncertainty–  Base year description, model parametersMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  21. 21. An example of “reconnaissance”The WLO Scenario study; 2004 (prosperity and the environment)•  4 scenarios for national socio-econ. and spatial development•  Use of LMS–  Translation of developments into LMS input–  Producing scenario specific ‘images’ of the transport system andtranslating these into LMS input–  Calculate mobility and accessibility effects using LMS•  Modelling issues: standard version LMS appliedMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  22. 22. Personal mobility (personkilometres) under thefour different WLO assumptions
  23. 23. Travel time delay on the motorway network under thefour different WLO assumptionsMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  24. 24. Travel time delay on motorway network in 2020GE RCMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  25. 25. The model has uncertainty•  From base year description–  Never better than the base year description•  From specification–  Limitations through the abstraction of reality•  From estimation process of parametersModel output has uncertainty-  even when we would be certain of the future developments-  remaining accuracy of flow on important links: 10%-  Full bandwidth is 10% - ??% depending on scenarioassumptionsMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  26. 26. NRM output + / - projectPlotted differences=Difference in flow with orwithout the projectExample modelaccuracyMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  27. 27. Example modelaccuracyFlow differences significantlydifferent from “0”Ministry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  28. 28. Example modelaccuracyUsing these values impliesa risk to the decision makingprocessMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  29. 29. •  Model application takes time–  not the model runtime–  collecting relevant assumptions and translating these into model input•  Small ‘mistakes’ can have huge consequencesModel complexity,means a high probability of “mistakes”Ministry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  30. 30. Model complexity,means a high probability of “mistakes”•  The A4 “incident”3 lanes instead of 4 codedon A4-A13 connection inreference scenarioMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  31. 31. 31 17/4/13Ministery of Infrastructure and the Environment
  32. 32. Model complexity,means a high probability of “mistakes”•  The A4 “incident”3 lanes instead of 4 codedon A4-A13 connection inreference scenarioThe calculated bottleneckleads to the conclusionthat 5 lanes are required,thus disqualifying a highlyrelevant alternative“repair’ leads to inclusionof the alternativeMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  33. 33. Co-ordination – The “How”•  Steering towards corporate approach by meansof co-ordinating and directing:–  Development:•  Use of one ‘corporate’ modelling technique–  Application•  Use ‘corporate’ set of assumptions in application•  Use ‘corporate’ application rules (incl. a set ofresponsabilities/actor)•  Laid down in ‘Protocol for NRM-application’Ministry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  34. 34. The transport model application is only one ofmany aspects of the policy planning processMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  35. 35. The model application dilemmaPolicy processwants detailsPolicy processwants certaintyModels getcomplex ->detailed inputOne futureModel resultsseen aspredictionsHigh errorprobabilityBlack boxPseudocertaintyDiscussion on:-  Plausibility-  Inputs-  Models-  Outputs-  ComplexityMinistry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  36. 36. Lessons•  Only use the model for the purpose it was build for;–  “to gain insight in possible impacts under given conditions”•  Only use the model to assess impacts on the level of detail itwas designed for•  Never use the model as a cristal bowl;–  the model output is not a prediction of the future!•  Always be aware of the fact that the model is an abstraction ofreality•  Be aware that the application process requires properorganisation and quality control!•  Keep using your common sense!Ministry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  37. 37. Remember that all models arewrong; the practical question ishow wrong do they have to be,not to be useful(Box and Draper, 1987)Ministry of Infrastructure and the EnvironmentKiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×