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Why Forecasting?  The formulation of Strategy & Policy                                         http://i14.photobucket.com/...
R&D StrategyThe emergence of large industryBayer   Dye industryDu Pont   Nylon HistoryGeneral ElectricWestinghousePhilips ...
R&D Strategy in CompaniesDevelopment1880: emergence of large industrial corporations,Industrial Research e.g Thomas Edison...
R&D Strategy•Future studies (Energy, transport)•Scenario analysis•Portfolio analysis (Example: bankruptcy Fokker Aircraft)...
R&D Strategy in CompaniesCharles M.A. Stine, 1936“Fundamental research assists one topredict the course of development of ...
R&D Strategy in CompaniesDevelopmentFirst Generation: distinct from corporation    (‘Bright scientists always come up with...
R&D Strategy in CompaniesIssuesFollower or Leader?Industry or University?Make or buy?Cooperation or not?Publish or not?Pat...
Technology Forecasting for policy•    Military, Cold War      • scenario’s, gaming•    Government R&D:      • priority set...
Technology Forecasting Mainly after WW II 1950: technological optimism         energy to cheap to meter,         squander ...
ForecastingDilemma’sTechnocracy?: Is forecasting leading to technocratic planning?Dilemma of control:   the earlier a deba...
ForecastingCollingridge dilemma, (trilemma)                                            knowledge                          ...
ForecastingControl dilemma with forecasting of impacts                                              knowledge             ...
Forecasting possible?•   Problem of Induction•   Fundamental problem: non-linearities•   Historic empirical correlations i...
ForecastingRecognising Fundamental DilemmasNon-linear relationships  The ‘butterfly’  Positive feedbackProblems of inducti...
ForecastingDid not all forecast fail?Club of Rome (1970: run into resource catastrophe by 2000)Demographics (very large in...
ForecastingWhen do companies set up forecasts?Informal regular forecastingExplicit forecasts:    New technological compete...
ForecastingWhen do governments make technological forecasts?Generic technologies for the economy (ICT, Nano, Bio, Material...
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Introduction to forecasting_01

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Transcript of "Introduction to forecasting_01"

  1. 1. Why Forecasting? The formulation of Strategy & Policy http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a321/Matt pmx/CalvinHobbesHistory.jpgKarel MulderJanuary 4, 2010 1
  2. 2. R&D StrategyThe emergence of large industryBayer Dye industryDu Pont Nylon HistoryGeneral ElectricWestinghousePhilips www.wackypackages.org Westinghouse.com Bayer.comJanuary 4, 2010 2
  3. 3. R&D Strategy in CompaniesDevelopment1880: emergence of large industrial corporations,Industrial Research e.g Thomas Edison, GeneralElectric, Bayer1910-1930: Science based Industry, e.g GeneralElectric, Du Pont, ICI, IG Farben, Philips, RhonePoulenc, Car industryMerging science and technology: Academic www.nndb.comscientists entered industry e.g Academics in US industry: 8000 in 1920, 17000 in 1927, 42000 in 1938January 4, 2010 3
  4. 4. R&D Strategy•Future studies (Energy, transport)•Scenario analysis•Portfolio analysis (Example: bankruptcy Fokker Aircraft) Growth Promise Star Decline ? Cash Cow Low High Profits Profits/DeficitJanuary 4, 2010 4
  5. 5. R&D Strategy in CompaniesCharles M.A. Stine, 1936“Fundamental research assists one topredict the course of development of chemicalindustry.Pioneering applied research enables one toachieve certain objectives indicated byfundamental research.Therefore, the continued growth (as distinctfrom mere expansion) of chemical industry isdependent upon fundamental research.That is the basic philosophy of fundamental http://heritage.dupont.comresearch.”January 4, 2010 5
  6. 6. R&D Strategy in CompaniesDevelopmentFirst Generation: distinct from corporation (‘Bright scientists always come up with something new, don’t disturb them’)Second Generation: R&D Marketing Interface (For R&D, making Lead from Gold is just as challenging as Gold from Lead, for us only the second conversion is of interest’’Third Generation: R&D integrated in Corporate Strategy (How to implement real technological change?)January 4, 2010 6
  7. 7. R&D Strategy in CompaniesIssuesFollower or Leader?Industry or University?Make or buy?Cooperation or not?Publish or not?Patent or not?Centralized or Decentralized?Business or Corporate organization?Functional or Disciplinary organization?January 4, 2010 7
  8. 8. Technology Forecasting for policy• Military, Cold War • scenario’s, gaming• Government R&D: • priority setting• Alternatives courses, strategic planning • energy infrastructureJanuary 4, 2010 8
  9. 9. Technology Forecasting Mainly after WW II 1950: technological optimism energy to cheap to meter, squander Dutch natural gas, flying cars http://i3.iofferphoto.com/img/1158562800/_i/14188158/1.jpg http://novaminds.net/images/science_images/skycar.jpgJanuary 4, 2010 9
  10. 10. ForecastingDilemma’sTechnocracy?: Is forecasting leading to technocratic planning?Dilemma of control: the earlier a debate takes place, the more options there are to control and steering development entrenchmentForecasting improves quality of debating?Enables discussion on alternatives?January 4, 2010 10
  11. 11. ForecastingCollingridge dilemma, (trilemma) knowledge effects adaptabilityJanuary 4, 2010 11
  12. 12. ForecastingControl dilemma with forecasting of impacts knowledge effects adaptabilityJanuary 4, 2010 12
  13. 13. Forecasting possible?• Problem of Induction• Fundamental problem: non-linearities• Historic empirical correlations insufficient for causal relationsJanuary 4, 2010 13
  14. 14. ForecastingRecognising Fundamental DilemmasNon-linear relationships The ‘butterfly’ Positive feedbackProblems of inductionHistorical empiric correlations insufficient without causal connectionsFrom forecasting to foresightJanuary 4, 2010 14
  15. 15. ForecastingDid not all forecast fail?Club of Rome (1970: run into resource catastrophe by 2000)Demographics (very large increases)Glass recycling (1975: no chance)Electricity consumption (early 70s, necessity of 1000 KV grid discussed)Yes, but everybody always makes forecasts: we should try to make them some betterJanuary 4, 2010 15
  16. 16. ForecastingWhen do companies set up forecasts?Informal regular forecastingExplicit forecasts: New technological competencies New markets (new regions as well as new social groups)January 4, 2010 16
  17. 17. ForecastingWhen do governments make technological forecasts?Generic technologies for the economy (ICT, Nano, Bio, Materials)Potential dilemma’s (medical biotech, growth-pollution, privacy)Under-performing regions and the role of technologytechnology for government functions like military, public works, etcJanuary 4, 2010 17
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