Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
Backcasting  Technology in Sustainable Development                                          http://images.ksc.nasa.gov/pho...
BackcastingLooking back from the future to design actions now       Involve various stakeholders       Start with needs, n...
Backcasting                         Intermediate steps                              FUTURE                                ...
BackcastingClear future visions have a strong guiding power     e.g Man on the MoonDefine and clarify an attractive sustai...
BackcastingCharacteristicsFrom future vision to action by design and analysisOrganize the process carefully, the process i...
Backcasting                                   INDUSTRY                                                     SCIENCE    GOVE...
BackcastingToolkit: 4 methodsParticipation and interaction  workshops, visioning, creativity stimulation, brain stormsDesi...
BackcastingIn 5 stepsStep 1 Strategic Problem orientation                  AnalysisStep 2 Prepare a vision of a desirable ...
Backcasting Step 1 - Strategic Problem orientationStrategic Problem orientation    Which needs to fulfill?    Trends and p...
BackcastingExample: Soy Fodder        Pigs     Meat ProductsThe Netherlands is importing large  amounts of Soy fodder from...
BackcastingExample: Soy Fodder        Pigs    Meat ProductsThe pigs (or the pigs meat) is often  transported to Italy. Som...
BackcastingStrategic Problem OrientationWhat is the need?What are the current unsustainabilities?Who are probable stakehol...
BackcastingStep 2 - Prepare a vision of a desirable futurePrepare a desirable future    Terms of Reference?    What socio/...
BackcastingStep 3 - Back-castingBack-casting     What do we need?     Which changes are needed to make the future vision c...
BackcastingStep 4 - Further elaboration, detailingElaboration, analysis    A possible design of a socio-technical system  ...
BackcastingStep 5 - ImplementationAgenda, embedding & follow-up   What should be done to guarantee successful further acti...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Backcasting 01

1,064

Published on

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,064
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
33
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "Backcasting 01"

  1. 1. Backcasting Technology in Sustainable Development http://images.ksc.nasa.gov/photos/196 9/medium/AS11-40-5873.jpgKarel MulderJanuary 4, 2010 1
  2. 2. BackcastingLooking back from the future to design actions now Involve various stakeholders Start with needs, not with technology Analyze the need, what do stakeholders really want? Build consensusJanuary 4, 2010 2
  3. 3. Backcasting Intermediate steps FUTURE ORIENTATION ting ca s B ack g tin as ckc BaJanuary 4, 2010 2000 TIME 2050 3
  4. 4. BackcastingClear future visions have a strong guiding power e.g Man on the MoonDefine and clarify an attractive sustainable futureIt forces to specify standards and principlesAlternative for traditional forecastingFit for ‘wicked problems’Experiences: The Natural Step, Netherlands: Sustainable http://images.ksc.nasa. gov/photos/1969/ Technology Development programJanuary 4, 2010 4
  5. 5. BackcastingCharacteristicsFrom future vision to action by design and analysisOrganize the process carefully, the process is important,Facilitate learning of participantsFacilitate the social embedding of the resultsJanuary 4, 2010 5
  6. 6. Backcasting INDUSTRY SCIENCE GOVERNMENT AND TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS SOCIETAL ORGANISATIONS EDUCATIONJanuary 4, 2010 6
  7. 7. BackcastingToolkit: 4 methodsParticipation and interaction workshops, visioning, creativity stimulation, brain stormsDesign and scenario-methods modeling, forecastingAnalysis- and modeling-methods LCA, effect analysis, stakeholder analysisManagement-methods for Process-, Project-, and Network managementJanuary 4, 2010 7
  8. 8. BackcastingIn 5 stepsStep 1 Strategic Problem orientation AnalysisStep 2 Prepare a vision of a desirable future VisionStep 3 Back-casting What do we need to make this come true?Step 4 Further elaboration DetailingStep 5 Implementation Policy implications, organizing embedding & follow-upJanuary 4, 2010 8
  9. 9. Backcasting Step 1 - Strategic Problem orientationStrategic Problem orientation Which needs to fulfill? Trends and possible changes that are relevant for this need? What is the problem, how is this problem perceived by various groups? What are the unsustainabilities and what are the causes? Who are the stakeholders? What are potentially directions to seek solutions?Methods Actor/Stakeholder analysis, socio-technical map Interactive methods (interviews, workshops, etc)January 4, 2010 9
  10. 10. BackcastingExample: Soy Fodder Pigs Meat ProductsThe Netherlands is importing large amounts of Soy fodder from Brazil, where it is often grown in areas that were cleared from tropical rainforest.The soy fodder is used to feed pigs in a specific region. Pigs manure creates local ammonia contamination. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki /Image:Soybean.USDA.jpgJanuary 4, 2010 10
  11. 11. BackcastingExample: Soy Fodder Pigs Meat ProductsThe pigs (or the pigs meat) is often transported to Italy. Some of the meat is afterwards returned as real ‘Parma Ham’.The proteins that are actually consumed only account for a few percent of the plant proteins in soy fodder. Wikimedia.orgJanuary 4, 2010 11
  12. 12. BackcastingStrategic Problem OrientationWhat is the need?What are the current unsustainabilities?Who are probable stakeholders?January 4, 2010 12
  13. 13. BackcastingStep 2 - Prepare a vision of a desirable futurePrepare a desirable future Terms of Reference? What socio/technical options are available? Are the unsustainabilities solved? Which technology is needed? How does it affect culture and structure of society? What are important trends, and events? Could we make the future vision even more sustainable?Methods Workshops Creativity stimulation, designing Consensus formation IllustrationsJanuary 4, 2010 13
  14. 14. BackcastingStep 3 - Back-castingBack-casting What do we need? Which changes are needed to make the future vision come true (technologic, cultural, organization/structure)? Who can implement the changes. How could the changes be made attractive for these actors? Can stepping stones be defined?Methods Analysis and modelingJanuary 4, 2010 14
  15. 15. BackcastingStep 4 - Further elaboration, detailingElaboration, analysis A possible design of a socio-technical system Effects of these systems for various stakeholders? What are drivers, barriers? What follow-up is needed (policy, research, development, publicity)?Methods Methods for Environmental Impact Analysis, consumer studies, economic analysis of elements of system Technology Assessment methods (checklist, cost/benefit, etc)January 4, 2010 15
  16. 16. BackcastingStep 5 - ImplementationAgenda, embedding & follow-up What should be done to guarantee successful further activity after a backcasting project has been carried out? How to embed specific projects and proposals? Agreements on further process and conflict resolution.Methods Communication ManagementGeneral Project management, team building, communication (process) evaluationJanuary 4, 2010 16
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×