Technology Dynamics and TransitionManagement in China Sustainable DevelopmentProf. Mi JianingSchool of Management, Harbin ...
Sustainable DevelopmentDevelopment in such a way that the present generation supportsitself without endangering the living...
Sustainable DevelopmentGlobal approachBroad developmentPolitics? Besides governments, groups in the market market and in  ...
Sustainable DevelopmentUrgency (physical threats)Sense of urgency (actor perceptions)Assignment of meaning:   Welfare prob...
Sustainable DevelopmentDevlopment Problem: Difference in Gross Domestic Productper CapitaGDP as anindication ofthe standar...
Sustainable DevelopmentFood Inequality73% world populationreceives 28% worldcereal production27% world populationuses food...
Sustainable DevelopmentHubbert Curve ‘Peak oil’January 8, 2010            7
Sustainable Development80-20 rule                                                      http://media.maps.com/magell       ...
SustainableDevelopmentEmissions andClimatehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Climate_Change_Attribution.pngJanuary 8, 2010...
Sustainable DevelopmentSafe Drinking Water2/3 world population has no access to safe drinking waterhttp://www.theglobaledu...
Sustainable DevelopmentSea Level Rise     - 50 meters   +50 meters   +250 metersJanuary 8, 2010                           ...
Sustainable DevelopmentWater StressPressure on the quantity and quality of water resourcesresulting from competing and con...
Sustainable DevelopmentWater2.5% of the Earth’s water resources is freshwater; less than 1% canbe used for human useNo sub...
January 8, 2010                                                            Hydrological Cycle                             ...
Sustainable DevelopmentWater UseHouseholds 10%Industry 20%    Hydropower and nuclear power 70%    Industrial processes 30-...
Sustainable DevelopmentWater DistributionFirst World 500 litres per person / per dayThird World 60-150 litres ppd       40...
Sustainable DevelopmentWater ProblemsToo little or too muchManagement problemGlobal environmental degradation        Natur...
Sustainable DevelopmentSustainability: 10 Key Notions1.  Brundtland report2.  North South (and East West) relations3.  IPA...
Sustainable DevelopmentBrundtland, Our Common Future 1987 (WCED)Sustainable development meets the needs of the present wit...
Sustainable DevelopmentNorth-South, East-WestNeeds: overriding priority should be given to the world’s poorInequity is the...
Sustainable DevelopmentBrundtlandSustainable development does not aim at reaching a fixed state of   harmony; it is a cont...
Sustainable DevelopmentI=PxAxT                                I=PxAxTI =               total Impact of mankind on the envi...
Sustainable DevelopmentReducing the environmental impact by 50% in 2050I=PxAxTPopulation                      1       1.5 ...
Sustainable DevelopmentEcological FootprintIndicates how much land and water area(in hectares) a population (or one person...
Sustainable DevelopmentWater FootprintTotal volume of water that is used to produce the goods and   services consumed by t...
Sustainable DevelopmentVirtual WaterVirtual water is the volume of water required to produce acommodity or service; 90 % o...
Sustainable DevelopmentDomestic water use?Use of domestic water sourcesvsuse of water outside the country bordersOnly abou...
Sustainable DevelopmentHow to Improve the Technology of Water UseIncreasing availability: extra wells, more rainwater harv...
Sustainable DevelopmentUsing Virtual Water TradeEfficient trade can be driven by comparative advantage: it is moreefficien...
Sustainable DevelopmentLimited resources and limited emissions                                               http://upload...
Sustainable DevelopmentLarge Scale Interventions?Nagarjuna dam                                  http://frostatmidnite.file...
Sustainable Development3 P’sPeople, planet, profit (Shell)     entrepreneurshipPeople, planet, prosperity       societal m...
Sustainable DevelopmentThree Dimension ConceptRio Declaration1992www.unngocsd.orgJanuary 8, 2010           33
Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable EntrepreneurshipCreation of value in three fields: Profit, People andPlanet; thus contr...
Sustainable DevelopmentWhole System DesignOptimizing not just parts, but entiresystemsDesigners and decision-makers too of...
Sustainable DevelopmentSocio Technical SystemArtefacts/technical systems + actors + institutionsBoundary: systems contain ...
Sustainable DevelopmentEngineerial irrigation development in Indonesia                  Stage           Actor/(s)        R...
Sustainable DevelopmentEngineerial irrigation development in Indonesia -1920 Innovations           Engineers,       Irriga...
Sustainable DevelopmentLife Cycle AssessmentAssessment of theenvironmental impact of agiven product or serviceduring its l...
Sustainable DevelopmentLife Design StrategiesJanuary 8, 2010           40
Sustainable DevelopmentEnvironmental Impact AnalysisJanuary 8, 2010                 41
Sustainable DevelopmentMaterials Energy and Toxicity Matrix                  Materials         Energy              Toxicit...
Sustainable DevelopmentUnintended Use of TechnologyE.g.• use of internet for a variety of purpose, including coordinating ...
Sustainable DevelopmentRebound EffectIncrease in consumption as a result of an increase in efficiency, e.g.•    increase i...
Sustainable DevelopmentPrisoners Dilemma                  Prisoner B              Prisoner B                  Stays Silent...
Sustainable DevelopmentTransition ManagementTransition to sustainable development is a complex process oftechnology develo...
Group AssignmentMake a sustainability analysis of you problem andsolutions.Use (one of) the tools from this lecture.Januar...
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5 ocw sustainable_development

  1. 1. Technology Dynamics and TransitionManagement in China Sustainable DevelopmentProf. Mi JianingSchool of Management, Harbin Instituteof TechnologyDr Wim RavesteijnSection Technology Dynamics andSustainable Development, faculty ofTechnology, Policy and Management,Delft University of Technology http://www.fao.org/NEWS/1998/981204-e.htmJanuary 8, 2010 1
  2. 2. Sustainable DevelopmentDevelopment in such a way that the present generation supportsitself without endangering the living conditions of the nextgenerationStrikes a bridge between development and environment, the needsof North and South and the needs of this and future generationsIt connects ecology, economy and social rightsJanuary 8, 2010 2
  3. 3. Sustainable DevelopmentGlobal approachBroad developmentPolitics? Besides governments, groups in the market market and in society are addressed: firms, trade unions, citizens, women, youth, cultural organizations, churchesHowever: ‘stretched beyond credibility’January 8, 2010 3
  4. 4. Sustainable DevelopmentUrgency (physical threats)Sense of urgency (actor perceptions)Assignment of meaning: Welfare problem in rich countries Health problem in rich and poor countries Economic or development problem in rich and poor countries Survival problem in poor countriesN.B. In the long term: survival problem for the whole world population Match between possibilities and needsJanuary 8, 2010 4
  5. 5. Sustainable DevelopmentDevlopment Problem: Difference in Gross Domestic Productper CapitaGDP as anindication ofthe standard ofliving in aneconomy.20% worldpopulationgets 75% worldincome;20% gets 2% http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/09/GDP_no minal_per_capita_world_map_IMF_figures_for_year_2006.pngJanuary 8, 2010 5
  6. 6. Sustainable DevelopmentFood Inequality73% world populationreceives 28% worldcereal production27% world populationuses food made with83% of the worldquantity of artificialfertilizer http://www.fao.org/NEWS/1998/981204-e.htmJanuary 8, 2010 6
  7. 7. Sustainable DevelopmentHubbert Curve ‘Peak oil’January 8, 2010 7
  8. 8. Sustainable Development80-20 rule http://media.maps.com/magell an/images/energycons.gif20 % of the world population uses 80% of the resources (fossilfuels, mineral and metal ores)resource use rich countries 16 times higher than poor countriesJanuary 8, 2010 8
  9. 9. SustainableDevelopmentEmissions andClimatehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Climate_Change_Attribution.pngJanuary 8, 2010 9
  10. 10. Sustainable DevelopmentSafe Drinking Water2/3 world population has no access to safe drinking waterhttp://www.theglobaleducationproject.org/earth/images/final-images/access-safe-water-map.gifJanuary 8, 2010 10
  11. 11. Sustainable DevelopmentSea Level Rise - 50 meters +50 meters +250 metersJanuary 8, 2010 11
  12. 12. Sustainable DevelopmentWater StressPressure on the quantity and quality of water resourcesresulting from competing and conflicting water uses Intense droughts, serious water shortages, large-scale flooding and ecosystem damages Social conflicts including warJanuary 8, 2010 12
  13. 13. Sustainable DevelopmentWater2.5% of the Earth’s water resources is freshwater; less than 1% canbe used for human useNo substitute available for waterAccess to water deteriorates because of excessive water use,pollution, population and economic growth: 600% increase over last100 yearsJanuary 8, 2010 13
  14. 14. January 8, 2010 Hydrological Cycle Sustainable Development http://www.euwfd.com/assets/images/auto gen/a_Image-050202.jpg14
  15. 15. Sustainable DevelopmentWater UseHouseholds 10%Industry 20% Hydropower and nuclear power 70% Industrial processes 30-40% Thermal generation 0.5-3%Agriculture 70% 120% increase over the next 20 yearsJanuary 8, 2010 15
  16. 16. Sustainable DevelopmentWater DistributionFirst World 500 litres per person / per dayThird World 60-150 litres ppd 400 children die daily from water-born deceases Sub-Saharan Africa 10-20 litres ppdWorld population growth of 50% over the next 40 years mostly in Third WorldJanuary 8, 2010 16
  17. 17. Sustainable DevelopmentWater ProblemsToo little or too muchManagement problemGlobal environmental degradation Nature cause adaptation Human induced sense of urgency to eliminate causesJanuary 8, 2010 17
  18. 18. Sustainable DevelopmentSustainability: 10 Key Notions1. Brundtland report2. North South (and East West) relations3. IPAT formula4. 3P’s people, planet, profit5. Sustainable entrepreneurship6. Systems thinking7. Limited resources and limited emissions8. Tools: EIA (MER), MET, LCA, LIDS-wheel, EF, WF, VWT9. The human factor: unintended use of technology, rebound effect, prisoners dilemma10. Transition managementJanuary 8, 2010 18
  19. 19. Sustainable DevelopmentBrundtland, Our Common Future 1987 (WCED)Sustainable development meets the needs of the present withoutcompromising the ability of future generations to meet their ownneedsPoint of departure, goal and assumption: socio-economicdevelopment, the rise of living standards, is necessary, should berealized and is possibleJanuary 8, 2010 19
  20. 20. Sustainable DevelopmentNorth-South, East-WestNeeds: overriding priority should be given to the world’s poorInequity is the largest environmental problem in the world; it is also a fundamental development problem‘Justice sustainability’: improving the living conditions of the poorSustainable solutions meet the demands of the poor or –at least – do not harm the interests of the poorEthics on a base level; e.g. forced migrations could be unsustainableJanuary 8, 2010 20
  21. 21. Sustainable DevelopmentBrundtlandSustainable development does not aim at reaching a fixed state of harmony; it is a continued process of change in which the exploitation of resources, the direction of investments, the orientation of technological development and institutional change are made consistent with future as well as present needsTechnology and organization could be ‘reverse salients’: state of technology and organization impose limits on the environment’s ability to meet present and future needs Technical and organizational innovationsJanuary 8, 2010 21
  22. 22. Sustainable DevelopmentI=PxAxT I=PxAxTI = total Impact of mankind on the environment (resource use + pollution)P = PopulationA = Affluence (quantity of products / services consumed per person; e.g. GNP per capita)T = Technology-efficiency /effectivity (environmental impact per unit of product / service; includes product re-use and organization of the production)Source: Mulder, K. Sustainable development for engineers: ahandbook and resource guide. Sheffield: Greenleaf, 2006January 8, 2010 22
  23. 23. Sustainable DevelopmentReducing the environmental impact by 50% in 2050I=PxAxTPopulation 1 1.5 - 2.5Affluence 1 4-8Environmental impact 1 0.5Consequently, technology efficiency should be 12 to 40 times higherN.B. Calculating with IPAT usually occurs with increases / decreases in percentagesJanuary 8, 2010 23
  24. 24. Sustainable DevelopmentEcological FootprintIndicates how much land and water area(in hectares) a population (or one person)requires to produce the resources it/heconsumes and to absorb its/his wastesunder the prevailing technologyIt is a specification of ‘IPAT-Impact’;fair share is 1.8 hectaresResource management tool:Global Ecological Footprint Calculator www.voetenbank.nl/home.htmJanuary 8, 2010 24
  25. 25. Sustainable DevelopmentWater FootprintTotal volume of water that is used to produce the goods and services consumed by the inhabitants of the nation (I in terms of water use)The water footprint in cubic meter per year per capita: China 700 Japan 1150 USA 2500 Fair share (1997) 1700January 8, 2010 25
  26. 26. Sustainable DevelopmentVirtual WaterVirtual water is the volume of water required to produce acommodity or service; 90 % of the total water use.To produce one kilogram of wheat we need about 1,000 litres ofwater, i.e. the virtual water of this kilogram of wheat is 1,000 litres.For meat, we need about five to twenty times more. The productionof one kilogram of beef requires 16 thousand litres of water.To produce one cup of coffee we need 140 litres of water.January 8, 2010 26
  27. 27. Sustainable DevelopmentDomestic water use?Use of domestic water sourcesvsuse of water outside the country bordersOnly about 7% of the Chinese water footprint falls outside China.Japan has about 65% of its total water footprint outside the bordersof the country.January 8, 2010 27
  28. 28. Sustainable DevelopmentHow to Improve the Technology of Water UseIncreasing availability: extra wells, more rainwater harvesting ormeasures that reduce evaporation losses.Increasing technical efficiency, e.g. improved farming or productionmethods.Increasing management efficiency: optimal organisation ofproduction (e.g. logistics) and ‘virtual water trade’.January 8, 2010 28
  29. 29. Sustainable DevelopmentUsing Virtual Water TradeEfficient trade can be driven by comparative advantage: it is moreefficient to produce goods that one can produce at lower cost andtrade it for goods that are more costly for oneself, but (apparently)less for the other party.For agriculture, in many countries the main contributor to its waterdemand, this could imply production for the market instead of forsubsistence.VWT is especially important for countries with scarce waterresources, like Middle East countriesSource: VIRTUAL WATER IN THE VOLTA BASIN: Socio-technical modelling for efficient water usein Burkina Faso / P. Blinde, D. Busser, M., Korenstra, C. Meijer, S. Schwab, W. Ravesteijn, M.Smoorenburg and T. Van der VoornJanuary 8, 2010 29
  30. 30. Sustainable DevelopmentLimited resources and limited emissions http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commonModern windmill in Sweden s/5/56/Windmill_02.JPGIn general: less technology andmore organization?January 8, 2010 30
  31. 31. Sustainable DevelopmentLarge Scale Interventions?Nagarjuna dam http://frostatmidnite.files.wordpress.com/200+ hydro-electric plant 7/08/300px-nagarjunasagardam.jpgIndiaJanuary 8, 2010 31
  32. 32. Sustainable Development3 P’sPeople, planet, profit (Shell) entrepreneurshipPeople, planet, prosperity societal managementPolluter pays principlePrevention pays principle4 P’s: + politics government steers or helps steeringJanuary 8, 2010 32
  33. 33. Sustainable DevelopmentThree Dimension ConceptRio Declaration1992www.unngocsd.orgJanuary 8, 2010 33
  34. 34. Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable EntrepreneurshipCreation of value in three fields: Profit, People andPlanet; thus contributing to long term social welfare(SER 2000) Corporate responsibility• Entrepreneurship is necessary to sustain a society• Sustainable enterpreneurship is a long term strategy• Identifying opportunities, assessing risks and taking the smartest actionJanuary 8, 2010 34
  35. 35. Sustainable DevelopmentWhole System DesignOptimizing not just parts, but entiresystemsDesigners and decision-makers too oftendefine problems narrowly, withoutidentifying their causes or connections. Thismerely shifts or multiplies problems. www.rmi.orgSystems thinking—the opposite of that des- (Rocky Mountains Institute)integrated approach—typically revealslasting, elegantly frugal solutions withmultiple benefits, which enable us totranscend ideological battles and unite allparties around shared goals.January 8, 2010 35
  36. 36. Sustainable DevelopmentSocio Technical SystemArtefacts/technical systems + actors + institutionsBoundary: systems contain everything which is being controlled by acentral actor (management) / specific technological (engineers’)regimeEnvironment: other systems, society (actors and institutions notdirectly involved), natural environmentE.g. river engineering systemJanuary 8, 2010 36
  37. 37. Sustainable DevelopmentEngineerial irrigation development in Indonesia Stage Actor/(s) Regime Mechanism 1832 Invention & Engineers, Irrigation for Introduction civil & exploitation servants -1885 Pioneering Engineers & Irrigation for Separate works: works, civil servants exploitation reverse salient research and welfare & preparation -1900 Growth Engineers Same Load factorJanuary 8, 2010 37
  38. 38. Sustainable DevelopmentEngineerial irrigation development in Indonesia -1920 Innovations Engineers, Irrigation for Momentum civil Welfare Large-scale servants & management: agriculturalists reverse salient -1940 Consolidation Same Irrigation for Load factor welfare Transfer EngineersJanuary 8, 2010 38
  39. 39. Sustainable DevelopmentLife Cycle AssessmentAssessment of theenvironmental impact of agiven product or serviceduring its lifespanJanuary 8, 2010 39
  40. 40. Sustainable DevelopmentLife Design StrategiesJanuary 8, 2010 40
  41. 41. Sustainable DevelopmentEnvironmental Impact AnalysisJanuary 8, 2010 41
  42. 42. Sustainable DevelopmentMaterials Energy and Toxicity Matrix Materials Energy Toxicity Production Plastics, metal Electricity, gas, Pollution from metals for wiring and fuel oil.... extraction and refining. element Pollution from oil extraction and from petrochemical plants. Pollution from energy sources. Use Water Electricity Pollution from power generation and distribution (SO2, NO2, CO2 etc...) Disposal Diesel (fuel for Possible pollution transport to tip) associated with landfills in generalJanuary 8, 2010 42
  43. 43. Sustainable DevelopmentUnintended Use of TechnologyE.g.• use of internet for a variety of purpose, including coordinating fights between soccer fans or protest campaigns• 9/11 (2001) use of civil airplanes for death and destruction• using irrigation canals for washingJanuary 8, 2010 43
  44. 44. Sustainable DevelopmentRebound EffectIncrease in consumption as a result of an increase in efficiency, e.g.• increase in distance driven resulting from improved fuel economy of cars• growth in garden lighting after introduction energy saving compact fluorescent lampJanuary 8, 2010 44
  45. 45. Sustainable DevelopmentPrisoners Dilemma Prisoner B Prisoner B Stays Silent Betrays Prisoner A Each serves six months Prisoner A serves ten Stays Silent years Prisoner B goes free Prisoner A Prisoner A goes free Each serves five years Betrays Prisoner B serves ten yearsJanuary 8, 2010 45
  46. 46. Sustainable DevelopmentTransition ManagementTransition to sustainable development is a complex process oftechnology development and societal change; new socio-technicalsystem, new technological regimeProcess is largely autonomous; a variety of actors has influence,including the governmentEvolutionary steering: adjusting processesCreating conditions under which societal innovation can take place,esp by the government influenced by ‘conscious actors’Source: Jan Rotmans / DriftJanuary 8, 2010 46
  47. 47. Group AssignmentMake a sustainability analysis of you problem andsolutions.Use (one of) the tools from this lecture.January 8, 2010 47
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