Technology Dynamics and TransitionManagement in China  Technology Dynamics: Concepts and Theories            Social       ...
Technology DynamicsItaipu Dam                                                    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Itaipu...
Technology DynamicsWhat is happening here?January 8, 2010           3
Technology DynamicsWhat is happening here?Does technology* development take place autonomously or is  technology shaped by...
Technology DynamicsVisionsTechnological determinism / Technology push:   Technology determines society   Technology is alw...
Technology DynamicsAutonomous Technology    Every new generation has some creative geniuses. They invent           some ne...
Technology DynamicsAutonomous TechnologyTechnology innovation is not accidental but depending on scientific       progress...
Technology DynamicsAutonomous TechnologyScientific knowledge accumulatesTechnology is applied scienceResources for technol...
Technology DynamicsTraditional Technology according to Ellul:Limited in its application (technologies were often based on ...
Technology DynamicsEllul characterizes modern technology by:Automatism, i.e. there is only one ‘best’ way to solve a probl...
Unabomber AttacksJanuary 8, 2010     11
Unabomber AttacksUnabomber ReasoningThe car increases our freedom by   increased freedom of movementBy having a car, we ca...
Technology Dynamics   The linear model of technology developmentDevelopment                                First          ...
Technology DynamicsSocial constructivismVarious social groups are involved with technologyEvery group has a specific view ...
Technology DynamicsSCOT-model: Social Construction of TechnologyArtifactRelevant social groupsInterpretative flexibilityIn...
Technology Dynamics         SCOT-model: Social Construction of Technology                 Social                 group    ...
Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the BicycleJanuary 8, 2010                       17
Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicycle                  Boneshaker          Macmillan’s                   ...
Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicycle1818DraisienneTwo-wheeledrider-propelledmachineJanuary 8, 2010      ...
Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicycle                       http://www.phys.uri.edu/~tony/bicycle/draisie...
Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicycle1861MichauxJanuary 8, 2010                       21
Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the BicycleJanuary 8, 2010                       22
Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicycle1874ArielJanuary 8, 2010                       23
Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicyclefrom 1879Safety bicycles1885 Rover Safety Bicycle http://www.phys.ur...
Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicycle1890sOrdinary    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/co    mmons/t...
Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the BicyclePenny farthing, up to 1.5 mLine of development guided by aspeed wish...
Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicycle                                                 http://en.wikipedia...
Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the BicycleJanuary 8, 2010                       28
Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the BicycleSolution!January 8, 2010                       29
Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicycle,SCOT-model: conceptsArtifact: bikeRelevant social groups: esp. spor...
Technology DynamicsTechnological frameMindset for design and the solution of problems; mechanical   engineering frameTechn...
Technology DynamicsTechnological regime: Moore’s law                                                http://www.seed.slb.co...
Technology DynamicsTechnological regimesRules for technological acting:       Design demands and design tools, educational...
Technology DynamicsPerspectives•    Actor perceptions, embedded in society and culture•    Engineers regimes, embedded in ...
Technology DynamicsRegimesSocial-political regimes, e.g. (neo-)colonial policy: exploitation    welfare   development coop...
Technology DynamicsSociotechnical systemsArtifact, e.g. sluiceComplex artifact, e.g. sluice complexTechnical system, e.g. ...
Technology DynamicsElectricity SystemUniversalsupply systemBerlin 1930January 8, 2010       37
Technology DynamicsSociotechnical SystemsA system is constituted of related parts or componentsThese components are connec...
Technology DynamicsSociotechnical System DevelopmentSystems undergo change and development in stages: invention,developmen...
Sociotechnical SystemsSystem Development and EntrepreneurshipJanuary 8, 2010                           40
Sociotechnical SystemsSystem Development MechanismsMomentum: mass, velocity, direction (capital, specific skills,instituti...
Sociotechnical SystemsReverse SalientA reverse salient is a part of the system that is falling behind in itsdevelopment. I...
Sociotechnical SystemsCritical ProblemReformulation of problem in do-able termsMore than one translationTranslation involv...
Sociotechnical SystemsExample of Reverse SalientEdison could only supply nearby down town areas with direct currentbecause...
Sociotechnical SystemsApplicationsOther infrasystems like:   Communication systems: post, telegraph, telephone, telex, fax...
Sociotechnical SystemsTechnology and SocietySociotechnical systems havedeveloped since the end of the 19thcenturyAccording...
Sociotechnical SystemsDutch water systemPolder based administration prevented the solution of problems withbig rivers in t...
Sociotechnical SystemsDutch water systemPolder based administration prevented the solution of problems withbig rivers in t...
Sociotechnical SystemsDutch water systemAdvanced system building through regime changeBig river problems constituted a rev...
Sociotechnical SystemsDutch water systemOpen-system building: Oosterscheldekering  Society adjusts    http://www.paulverma...
Sociotechnical SystemsControl DilemmaSystems theory: in the initial stages the social environment shapes   socio-technical...
Sociotechnical SystemsWater Management RegimesJanuary 8, 2010            52
Sociotechnical SystemsPush vs. Pull DebateTechnology push vs market pull / social needsSometimes technology develops more ...
Sociotechnical SystemsPush, Pull and Social ConstructionPush:   STE-complex   Military-industrial complex: defense, space ...
Sociotechnical SystemsCo-construction and co-evolution: actors, systems andregimesActors, engineers and social actors, dis...
Group assignmentInvestigate the background of China’s water problems:       What causes can be distinguished?       Which ...
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2 ocw technology_dynamics__concepts_and_theories

  1. 1. Technology Dynamics and TransitionManagement in China Technology Dynamics: Concepts and Theories Social group Solution Problem Social Solution group Problem SolutionSocialgroup Artefact Problem Problem Social Group Social group Solution Social Solution group Problem ProblemProf. Mi JianingSchool of Management, Harbin Institute of TechnologyDr Wim RavesteijnSection Technology Dynamics and Sustainable Development, faculty of Technology, Policyand Management, Delft University of TechnologyJanuary 8, 2010 1
  2. 2. Technology DynamicsItaipu Dam http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Itaipu2.JPGBackground: development; “Brazil energy superpower”Output: 93% Of the energy consumed by Paraguay and 20% of that consumed by Brazil (2005)Context: negotiations and agreements between Brazil, Paraguay and ArgentinaProblem: 2000-2001 Drought resulted in recurring blackouts and rationing of electricity usageSocial impact: approximately 10,000 families were dislodged from their plots. Some of these families eventually came to be members of one of Brazils largest social movements : the Landless Workers Movement.January 8, 2010 2
  3. 3. Technology DynamicsWhat is happening here?January 8, 2010 3
  4. 4. Technology DynamicsWhat is happening here?Does technology* development take place autonomously or is technology shaped by its social context?In other words: do engineers take the lead in technology development or do they have to do what society asks them to do? * Technology = product, man-made artifact or technical system, hardwareJanuary 8, 2010 4
  5. 5. Technology DynamicsVisionsTechnological determinism / Technology push: Technology determines society Technology is always a positive sum game Technology development is autonomous & linearSocial constructivism / society demands: Society and social groups determine technology; e.g. SCOT- modelCo-evolution of technology & society E.g. socio-technical systems theory (Hughes)January 8, 2010 5
  6. 6. Technology DynamicsAutonomous Technology Every new generation has some creative geniuses. They invent some new technologies (by there more than average intelligence or by pure coincidence). The act of invention is independent of society. Succesful inventions diffuse in society and, thereupon, transform society.January 8, 2010 6
  7. 7. Technology DynamicsAutonomous TechnologyTechnology innovation is not accidental but depending on scientific progress. As scientific progress is the result of its own dynamics, and independent of societal change, technological change is independent of society. (E.g. Dijksterhuis, 1950 and Koyre, 1943).January 8, 2010 7
  8. 8. Technology DynamicsAutonomous TechnologyScientific knowledge accumulatesTechnology is applied scienceResources for technological innovation are growing foreverTechnology is ever improvingTechnological autonomy → Technological determinismJacques Ellul: Traditional technology vs. modern technology (1960s)January 8, 2010 8
  9. 9. Technology DynamicsTraditional Technology according to Ellul:Limited in its application (technologies were often based on specific local resources and therefore hardly transferable);Dependent on limited resources and on ‘skill’ (skills like making and repairing tools, but also being able to judge weather conditions, or the tides);Local in its character, i.e., technological solutions for specific problems were embedded in local culture and traditions.January 8, 2010 9
  10. 10. Technology DynamicsEllul characterizes modern technology by:Automatism, i.e. there is only one ‘best’ way to solve a problem, and this technology seems to be compelling, everywhere on the planet;Self increase, i.e. a new technology reinforces the growth of other technologies: this leads to exponential growth;Indivisibility: the technological way of life must be accepted completely, including its good and bad sides;Cohesion, i.e. technologies that are used in various different areas have much in common;Universalism, i.e. technology is geographically as well as qualitatively omnipresent.January 8, 2010 10
  11. 11. Unabomber AttacksJanuary 8, 2010 11
  12. 12. Unabomber AttacksUnabomber ReasoningThe car increases our freedom by increased freedom of movementBy having a car, we can do our shopping in mallsSmall neighbourhood shops disappearWe therefore are forced to have a carSo a technology like the car limits our libertyImplications of this view for possibility to steer technology development?January 8, 2010 12
  13. 13. Technology Dynamics The linear model of technology developmentDevelopment First Development Broad of new Introduction of new product Diffusion EffectsFundamental in market or system in society knowledge niche January 8, 2010 13
  14. 14. Technology DynamicsSocial constructivismVarious social groups are involved with technologyEvery group has a specific view of a certain technologyExample: PC. • secretary: type writer • book keeper: administration tool • at home: communication toolTechnologies are shaped by demand / influence of relevant social groupsJanuary 8, 2010 14
  15. 15. Technology DynamicsSCOT-model: Social Construction of TechnologyArtifactRelevant social groupsInterpretative flexibilityInclusion of new groupsTechnological frameJanuary 8, 2010 15
  16. 16. Technology Dynamics SCOT-model: Social Construction of Technology Social group Solution Social group SolutionSocial Solutiongroup Artefact Problem Problem Social group Problem Social group Solution Problem Social Solution Group Problem Problem January 8, 2010 16
  17. 17. Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the BicycleJanuary 8, 2010 17
  18. 18. Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicycle Boneshaker Macmillan’s bicycle Guilmet’s bicycle Penny Farthing Xtraordinary Geared Facile Star Club Safety Lawson’s BicycletteJanuary 8, 2010 18
  19. 19. Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicycle1818DraisienneTwo-wheeledrider-propelledmachineJanuary 8, 2010 19
  20. 20. Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicycle http://www.phys.uri.edu/~tony/bicycle/draisien.gifJanuary 8, 2010 20
  21. 21. Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicycle1861MichauxJanuary 8, 2010 21
  22. 22. Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the BicycleJanuary 8, 2010 22
  23. 23. Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicycle1874ArielJanuary 8, 2010 23
  24. 24. Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicyclefrom 1879Safety bicycles1885 Rover Safety Bicycle http://www.phys.uri.edu/~tony/bicycle/rover.gifJanuary 8, 2010 24
  25. 25. Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicycle1890sOrdinary http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/co mmons/thumb/a/a7/Ordinary_bicycle01.jp g/180px-Ordinary_bicycle01.jpgJanuary 8, 2010 25
  26. 26. Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the BicyclePenny farthing, up to 1.5 mLine of development guided by aspeed wish sustained by young,sportive men for whom the dangerof falling was part of the fun1893 High wheeler http://www.bikes.msu.edu/history/web/hi- wheeler-1-P3019443.JPGJanuary 8, 2010 26
  27. 27. Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicycle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Bicycle.jpgSafety bikeReflectors for night ridingWomen, recreation cyclists, older peoplewere all interested in the developmentof a safe and comfortable bike (withbrakes, rear wheel drive, pneumatic tiresetc.)Ultimately, interpretative flexibilitydeclined: one (safety) bike, used by allactors, the old and the (included) newactorsJanuary 8, 2010 27
  28. 28. Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the BicycleJanuary 8, 2010 28
  29. 29. Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the BicycleSolution!January 8, 2010 29
  30. 30. Technology DynamicsExample: Development of the Bicycle,SCOT-model: conceptsArtifact: bikeRelevant social groups: esp. sportive, young menInclusion of new groups: e.g. women and old peopleInterpretative flexibility: speed vs safe transportationJanuary 8, 2010 30
  31. 31. Technology DynamicsTechnological frameMindset for design and the solution of problems; mechanical engineering frameTechnological regime: all rules steering engineering designJanuary 8, 2010 31
  32. 32. Technology DynamicsTechnological regime: Moore’s law http://www.seed.slb.com/en/scictr/watch/co mputer/images/moores_law.jpgEvery 18 months: twice as many IC’s on a chipJanuary 8, 2010 32
  33. 33. Technology DynamicsTechnological regimesRules for technological acting: Design demands and design tools, educational programme Beliefs and expectations, e.g. Moore’s Law Guiding principles, e.g. digital solutions are preferableJanuary 8, 2010 33
  34. 34. Technology DynamicsPerspectives• Actor perceptions, embedded in society and culture• Engineers regimes, embedded in technology, society and culture• Other regimes, e.g. political regimesJanuary 8, 2010 34
  35. 35. Technology DynamicsRegimesSocial-political regimes, e.g. (neo-)colonial policy: exploitation welfare development cooperationTechno-economic regimes, e.g. keytechnologies with regard to industrialrevolution (steam, electricity, ICT)January 8, 2010 35
  36. 36. Technology DynamicsSociotechnical systemsArtifact, e.g. sluiceComplex artifact, e.g. sluice complexTechnical system, e.g. irrigation system of canals and structuresSociotechnical system, e.g. system of irrigation and management ornetwork of such systemsJanuary 8, 2010 36
  37. 37. Technology DynamicsElectricity SystemUniversalsupply systemBerlin 1930January 8, 2010 37
  38. 38. Technology DynamicsSociotechnical SystemsA system is constituted of related parts or componentsThese components are connected: the state, or activity, of onecomponent influences the state, or activity, of other components inthe systemComponents are often centrally controlledLimits are established by the extent of this controlFocus is on optimizing the systems performance and on directingthe system toward the achievement of goalsSystems reflect and influence their context, but they also develop aninternal dynamic: system dynamics vs constructionJanuary 8, 2010 38
  39. 39. Technology DynamicsSociotechnical System DevelopmentSystems undergo change and development in stages: invention,development, innovation, growth, competition, consolidation andtransferSystem mechanisms drive system development: reverse salients,momentum, load factor, economic mix.System stages characterized by typical actors like Inventor-entrepreneurs, Financier-entrepreneurs and Manager-entrepreneurs/ or typical groups of actors / or specific technological regimesJanuary 8, 2010 39
  40. 40. Sociotechnical SystemsSystem Development and EntrepreneurshipJanuary 8, 2010 40
  41. 41. Sociotechnical SystemsSystem Development MechanismsMomentum: mass, velocity, direction (capital, specific skills,institutionalization, culture)Reverse salient critical problemsLoad factorEconomic mixJanuary 8, 2010 41
  42. 42. Sociotechnical SystemsReverse SalientA reverse salient is a part of the system that is falling behind in itsdevelopment. It is a nuisance for the system, and might beinterpreted differently by various actors., e.g. traffic congestionA reverse salient might be slumbering or criticalThe systems innovative capabilities are directed towards the reversesalientsTo attack them successfully, reverse salients have to bereformulated as ‘critical problems’January 8, 2010 42
  43. 43. Sociotechnical SystemsCritical ProblemReformulation of problem in do-able termsMore than one translationTranslation involves creativityA good translation greatly increases the likelihood of a solutionFailure to formulate critical problem might stimulate alternative systemsJanuary 8, 2010 43
  44. 44. Sociotechnical SystemsExample of Reverse SalientEdison could only supply nearby down town areas with direct currentbecause of high transmission lossesSeveral critical problems can be formulated, e.g. Reducing transmission losses Building cost efficient small scale power stationsResult: new system based on AC: WestinghouseJanuary 8, 2010 44
  45. 45. Sociotechnical SystemsApplicationsOther infrasystems like: Communication systems: post, telegraph, telephone, telex, fax, mobile telephone as well as papers, radio, television Energy systems: gas, oil, nuclear energy, coal, city heating (beside electricity) Transport systems: shipping, airliners, roads, railways Irrigation, drinking water, sewageTechnical systems like radar, space, systems for organ transplantation etc.Production and distribution systems, e.g. carsJanuary 8, 2010 45
  46. 46. Sociotechnical SystemsTechnology and SocietySociotechnical systems havedeveloped since the end of the 19thcenturyAccording to Thomas Hughes:Have superseded politics and theeconomy as the mainshaping factors of technologyand society. Image: amazon.co.ukJanuary 8, 2010 46
  47. 47. Sociotechnical SystemsDutch water systemPolder based administration prevented the solution of problems withbig rivers in the 19th CenturyJanuary 8, 2010 47
  48. 48. Sociotechnical SystemsDutch water systemPolder based administration prevented the solution of problems withbig rivers in the 19th Century:Draining millingReverse salient in water protection systemCritical problem: dykes, water division of water, canalization?Ultimate solution was canalization, enabled by another managementsystemJanuary 8, 2010 48
  49. 49. Sociotechnical SystemsDutch water systemAdvanced system building through regime changeBig river problems constituted a reverse salient in water protectionsystemPolder based administration prevented the solution of theseproblems in the 18th CChange in the political landscape brought the solution: Frenchoccupation led to national water agency and strategyCritical problem: dykes, water division of water, canalization?Ultimate solution was canalization, enabled by national managementsystemJanuary 8, 2010 49
  50. 50. Sociotechnical SystemsDutch water systemOpen-system building: Oosterscheldekering Society adjusts http://www.paulvermast.nl/wp/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/oosterscheldekering-met-storm.jpg http://static.flickr.com/29/39804088_aad4bad61b_o.jpgJanuary 8, 2010 50
  51. 51. Sociotechnical SystemsControl DilemmaSystems theory: in the initial stages the social environment shapes socio-technical system development, later the system shapes society; both in relative termsControl dilemma:….attempting to control a technology is difficult, and not rarely impossible, because during its early stages, when it can be controlled, not enough can be known about its harmful social consequences to warrant controlling its development; but by the time these consequences are apparent, control has become costly and slow.Collingridge (1980)January 8, 2010 51
  52. 52. Sociotechnical SystemsWater Management RegimesJanuary 8, 2010 52
  53. 53. Sociotechnical SystemsPush vs. Pull DebateTechnology push vs market pull / social needsSometimes technology develops more quickly than demand / society, sometimes less quicklySometimes technology adjusts itself to demand / society, sometimes society adjusts itself to new technologyNew technologies often used in another way than meant → change of technology through use / societyTechnology and society develop hand in handJanuary 8, 2010 53
  54. 54. Sociotechnical SystemsPush, Pull and Social ConstructionPush: STE-complex Military-industrial complex: defense, space travel and indutstry (Military = niche market) Social constructions (no laws of nature)Pull: Market demand Social problems like sustainability problems Also social constructions (perceptions of needs and problems)January 8, 2010 54
  55. 55. Sociotechnical SystemsCo-construction and co-evolution: actors, systems andregimesActors, engineers and social actors, display agency, determined and controlled by factors, esp.: Socio-technical systems, hard Ware, connecting nature and society Technological regimes, software, connecting culture and technology Value and philosophical systems, software, connecting actors, society and cultureJanuary 8, 2010 55
  56. 56. Group assignmentInvestigate the background of China’s water problems: What causes can be distinguished? Which historical solutions have been applied? Which processes of variation and selection could be distinguished?January 8, 2010 56
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