Senate GroupLong-term investing, Risk & Asset Allocation            Terence Craig - CIO               8 March 2012
Terence CraigChief Investment Officer  B Bus Sc (Hons), CA (SA), CFA  18 years’ industry experience  Allan Gray - Equity A...
Agenda Overview of Element Investment Managers Unit Trust Fund Overview Asset Allocation Process Economic and Market Revie...
Overview of Element Investment Managers  Independent investment manager established in 1998  Rebranded from Frater Asset M...
Unit Trust Fund Overview
Changing to ALSIElement‟s Unit Trust Fund Profile                                                 from 1 May 2012         ...
Element: Unit Trust Fund Profile                   2% - 4% long term                    out-performance                   ...
Asset Allocation Process
Decision making and meetings Quarterly Asset Allocation (QAA) meeting Weekly Investment Committee meeting Weekly Asset All...
Top-Down Research/Asset Allocation                                                               Via Investment committee:...
Top-Down Research/Asset Allocation Day 1 :                                            Analyst Responsible      Introductio...
Balanced Funds Investment Process                              Balanced Funds  AssetAllocation                     Equity ...
Investment Process                                Idea Generation                                • Quantitative Measures  ...
Detailed bottom-up in-house Research  Usually 7 reports prepared per company  Facilitates better discussion and risk analy...
Economic & Market Review
Secular Global Themes Deficits: budget/trade/savings/housing/taxes China: Hard/soft landing Oil price; Commodity prices US...
Factors affecting Portfolio Positioning  Global Macro:       Debt, more debt and downgrades– we expect more will follow   ...
“New normal” moves to Paranormal!New normal: Below average growth with high unemployment and the“heavy-hand of government”...
US Unemployment – stubbornly high
US Inflation – Alternate (Base of 1980)     Effect of changing inflation baskets over time
SA Inflation – Effect of CPI reweighting
Debt, more debt & downgrades  Downgrade of France results in a rating wedge  with Germany (“Core” becoming brittle)  Frenc...
PMIs indicate Eurozone recession in 2012           Contraction      Expansion
Eurozone sovereign debt is material                                                              3rd largest              ...
Euro debt refinancing in 2012
Higher taxes and lowerMacro themes playing out             benefits (austerity) do                                       n...
EU austerity will not help create jobs
Chinese property developers – possible warning?                                                     EverGrande up 17%,    ...
SA‟s infrastructure focus – déjà vuState of the Nation promises by President Zuma:2009:                                   ...
SA Inflation: Upside surprises likely                        Food                        Rand                        OilSo...
ALSI Index in Real Terms                                                  Alsi Price, Deflator: CPI                   Slop...
ALSI Earnings in Real Terms                                                Alsi Earnings, Deflator: CPI                   ...
ALSI PE: Trend and Trailing                                                       Alsi PE, Deflator: CPI    23            ...
Asset Allocation – Quant Models
Asset Allocation – Element Balanced Unit Trust                              Foreign Income, 4%                      Foreig...
Asset Allocation – Element Real Income                                 Foreign                              Income, 15%   ...
Conclusion on current portfolio positioning  Global and local equity markets do not look cheap      Propped up by low inte...
Element: Key Differentiators1.   Our size and our investable universe2.   Excellent long-term performance track record3.  ...
Size and Shrinking Portfolio Universe                                Maintain 3-5 x                               portfoli...
Element: Key Differentiators1.   Our size and our investable universe2.   Excellent long-term performance track record3.  ...
What period should investors focus on?                     100 000.000                                                    ...
What period should investors focus on?                            110%                                      Time and the p...
Element Equity: Performance & Risk                                   Element EarthAs at 31 December 2011                  ...
Element Flexible: Performance & RiskAs at 31 December 2011         Element Flexible Fund   CPI + 5%   RELATIVEAnnualised s...
Performance – Balanced Composite (Instit)                                                                  BalancedAs at 3...
Element Global Equity FundPerformance of Epoch Global Choice Fund31 December 2011                    Epoch Net Return     ...
Element: Key Differentiators1.   Our size and our investable universe2.   Excellent long-term performance track record3.  ...
Contrarian stock selection = Good blendElement Earth Equity              %                     Coronation Top 20 Fund    %...
Contrarian stock selection = Good blend Element Earth Equity             %                     Investec Equity       %OLD ...
Contrarian stock selection = Good blendElement Earth Equity              %                     Investec Value      %OLD MU...
Contrarian stock selection = Good blendElement Earth Equity             %                       Allan Gray Equity    %    ...
Contrarian stock selection = Good blend                                                             RE:CM Flexible Equity ...
Why use Element? Active Investment    Enhanced Long      process        Term performance  Contrarian view        Blend wel...
Thank YouAny questions?
Disclaimer Element Investment Managers claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). The fir...
CONTACT DETAILS:•   Natalie Smith    natalie@elementim.co.za   (083 306 6460)•   Ian Jones    ian@elementim.co.za       (0...
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Element

  1. 1. Senate GroupLong-term investing, Risk & Asset Allocation Terence Craig - CIO 8 March 2012
  2. 2. Terence CraigChief Investment Officer B Bus Sc (Hons), CA (SA), CFA 18 years’ industry experience Allan Gray - Equity Analyst and Portfolio Manager Taita, Private Equity Firm – Director Joined Element as Director & Chief Investment Officer in April 2001 Since April 2001 responsible for: Investment philosophy and process Portfolio management of all Element funds Investment team growth and development
  3. 3. Agenda Overview of Element Investment Managers Unit Trust Fund Overview Asset Allocation Process Economic and Market Review Key differentiators
  4. 4. Overview of Element Investment Managers Independent investment manager established in 1998 Rebranded from Frater Asset Management in 2009 >R20bn Assets Under Management Well diversified client base Long-term contrarian value investors Material focus on downside risk Leaders in Responsible Investment and ESG analysis Enhances our analysis of risk 36 staff: > 150 years‟ experience in Investment Team 9 CFAs (60% of Investment team), 6 CA (SA)s, 3 Actuaries
  5. 5. Unit Trust Fund Overview
  6. 6. Changing to ALSIElement‟s Unit Trust Fund Profile from 1 May 2012 Inception Fund Sector Benchmark Max equity DateElement Earth Domestic General Equity ALSI_D 100% Oct 2001EquityElement Flexible Domestic Asset CPI + 5% 100% Oct 2001Fund Allocation - Flexible Domestic AssetElement Real Allocation - Targeted CPI + 3% 40% Oct 2002Income Fund Absolute and Real Return Domestic Asset Average total return ofElement Balanced Allocation - Prudential the prudential variable 75% Nov 2009Fund Variable Equity equity categoryElement Global Foreign Equity MSCI World Index 100% Feb 2011Equity FundElement Islamic Domestic General Equity FTSE/JSE Shariah ALSI 100% Feb 2006Equity Fund Domestic Asset Average total return ofElement Islamic Allocation - Prudential the prudential variable 75% Apr 2010Balanced Fund Variable Equity equity category6 Moving to Prudential Low Changing to average of Equity category Islamic Equity funds (>1yr)
  7. 7. Element: Unit Trust Fund Profile 2% - 4% long term out-performance with lower than market risk Reduce risk with combination of asset classes Reg 28 Balanced Fund – expected position Real return with material reduction in Size of risk bubble = maximum drawdown Offer investors a choice along a risk/return frontier Inception to 31 December 2011
  8. 8. Asset Allocation Process
  9. 9. Decision making and meetings Quarterly Asset Allocation (QAA) meeting Weekly Investment Committee meeting Weekly Asset Allocation and Income meeting Weekly Portfolio Managers meeting Stock specific Investment Committee meetings
  10. 10. Top-Down Research/Asset Allocation Via Investment committee: SA Economy meets 2-4 times per year members present Global Quants Markets & Economies reviews macro variables timing issues potential themes asset allocation ESG Top Down View Commodities 2 full days ½ day follow up Portfolio Risk Currencies Detailed top-down research Inflation & Interest is a material differentiator Rates from competitors
  11. 11. Top-Down Research/Asset Allocation Day 1 : Analyst Responsible Introduction Matthew Kreeve Portfolio Risk: Performance and Attribution Glenda Speckmann Portfolio Risk: Risk and Liquidity Warrick Erlank ESG: Politics Danny Stimela Portfolio Risk: Implementation Log Altaaf Noormahomed Quants Rene Prinsloo Day 2: Commodities Andrew Bishop & Guy Antoine Currencies Steven Barber International Markets Johny Lambridis International Interest Rates and Inflation Jeleze Hattingh SA Economic Review Graeme Ronne SA Interest Rates and Inflation Jeleze Hattingh Day 3: SA Economic Review: GFCF Steven Barber ESG: Responsible Investment David Couldridge Property Report Jeleze Hattingh Income Review Rene Prinsloo SA Equity Timing & Element Positioning Terence Craig Day 4: Summary Matthew Kreeve
  12. 12. Balanced Funds Investment Process Balanced Funds AssetAllocation Equity Income Foreign Income ImplementationAllocation FRNs/ Cash Bonds ILBs Property PrefsSecuritySelection Duration Credit Curve Shape Liquidity
  13. 13. Investment Process Idea Generation • Quantitative Measures • Ranking tables • Macro factors • Industry factors • Professional judgment Maintenance Calendar 2011 Research • Voting at AGMs • Management • Industry Analysis • Group - 154 • Engagement • EIM only - 48 • Company Analysis • Company visits • Broker meetings - 875 • Financial Analysis • Result presentations - 209 • Updating models • Site visits - 25 • Management Meeting • Meet different management • Conferences - 39 • Valuation & Reports • Seminars - 26 Implementation • Investment Committee • Meets weekly • Portfolio Construction • Order Optimisation • Execution
  14. 14. Detailed bottom-up in-house Research Usually 7 reports prepared per company Facilitates better discussion and risk analysis Fundamental ESG & Research Quantitative Sustainability (Historical & (Long term) Future) Fundamental Long Term Sheets Corporate Report Value Rankings Governance Absolute valuation Timing Analysis Remuneration (e.g. DCF) Directors‟ Dealings BEE Relative valuation Shareholder Analysis Sustainability issues (e.g. TRR)
  15. 15. Economic & Market Review
  16. 16. Secular Global Themes Deficits: budget/trade/savings/housing/taxes China: Hard/soft landing Oil price; Commodity prices US Rates & Dollar as a global reserve US statistics – “lies, damned lies and…” Cheap liquidity now - expensive later Global Security From Crisis to … Crisis Govt/CB intervention is distortionary
  17. 17. Factors affecting Portfolio Positioning Global Macro: Debt, more debt and downgrades– we expect more will follow Inflation/deflation – fat tail outcomes BRICs unlikely to support global growth on their own SA Macro: Inflation: Upside risks in 2012 Consumer debt levels – still remain high SA Equity Valuation levels: Absolute and relative – we do not look cheap Foreign flows increase volatility Risk not being priced correctly so risks to the downside have increased
  18. 18. “New normal” moves to Paranormal!New normal: Below average growth with high unemployment and the“heavy-hand of government” evident in markets (PIMCO: May 2009)“…somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters; downsiderisks to the economic outlook have increased.” (Fed: 9 August 2011)“For 2012 investors must lower returnexpectations.The new normal is „Sub‟, „Ab‟, ‘Para’ andthen some.The financial markets and global economiesare at great risk.”(Bill Gross, PIMCO: Jan 2012)
  19. 19. US Unemployment – stubbornly high
  20. 20. US Inflation – Alternate (Base of 1980) Effect of changing inflation baskets over time
  21. 21. SA Inflation – Effect of CPI reweighting
  22. 22. Debt, more debt & downgrades Downgrade of France results in a rating wedge with Germany (“Core” becoming brittle) French elections in April 2012 – further risk Five AAA rated European countries outside EMU: Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Switz & UK The Economist, June 13th – 19th 2009 Only four within EMU: Germany, Finland, Luxembourg & Netherlands US Debt remains material long-term concern US elections – do we believe stats this year? Remedies: Defaults or currency deflation? Forbes Magazine, 8 February 2010
  23. 23. PMIs indicate Eurozone recession in 2012 Contraction Expansion
  24. 24. Eurozone sovereign debt is material 3rd largest economy in Eurozone; €1.9trn of debt Greece target For 2020! Data as at 31 December 2011 Reinhart & Rogoff
  25. 25. Euro debt refinancing in 2012
  26. 26. Higher taxes and lowerMacro themes playing out benefits (austerity) do not make for happy voters! All PIIGS had change of Government in 2011 7
  27. 27. EU austerity will not help create jobs
  28. 28. Chinese property developers – possible warning? EverGrande up 17%, other developers down 18%-41% since Jan 2011Source: Reuters, Element Investment Managers, 8 March 2012
  29. 29. SA‟s infrastructure focus – déjà vuState of the Nation promises by President Zuma:2009: Source: Times Live, 12 February 2012 “Massive” programme to build economic and social infrastructure Cost of telecoms to be reduced2010: Government to spend R846bn in next 3 years on public infrastructure Rail network - reliable, competitive and better integrated with ports2011: Year of job creation via economic transformation and inclusive growth Jobs fund of R9bn over 3 years to finance job creation2012: Five major infrastructure projects (Rail, Road, Port/Eskom charges) President to convene infrastructure summit to discuss planDelivery remains critical
  30. 30. SA Inflation: Upside surprises likely Food Rand OilSource:ThomsonReuters
  31. 31. ALSI Index in Real Terms Alsi Price, Deflator: CPI Slope: 3.2% 2nd highest deviation above the mean 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 Start of 2003 Bull market 3.5 R²: 75% 3.0 Jan-60 Jan-64 Jan-68 Jan-72 Jan-76 Jan-80 Jan-84 Jan-88 Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 Real Price Trend Price +2SD -2SDSource: Inet Bridge, 1960 to 29 February 2012
  32. 32. ALSI Earnings in Real Terms Alsi Earnings, Deflator: CPI Slope: 2.3% 2nd highest level of real earnings ever 2.9 2.4 1.9 Start of 2003 Bull market 1.4 Gold at $800/oz Gold Index 30% of ALSI R²: 67% 0.9 Jan-72 Jan-60 Jan-64 Jan-68 Jan-76 Jan-80 Jan-84 Jan-88 Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 Real Earnings Trend Earnings +2SD -2SDSource: Inet Bridge, 1960 to 29 February 2012
  33. 33. ALSI PE: Trend and Trailing Alsi PE, Deflator: CPI 23 Historical PE: 13.4 Price/Trend E: 19.1 18 13 8 3 Jan-60 Jan-64 Jan-68 Jan-72 Jan-76 Jan-80 Jan-84 Jan-88 Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 Price/ Trend Earnings PE Avg P/ Trend E Avg PESource: Inet Bridge, 1960 to 29 February 2012
  34. 34. Asset Allocation – Quant Models
  35. 35. Asset Allocation – Element Balanced Unit Trust Foreign Income, 4% Foreign Equity, 17% Net Equity, 39% Money Market incl. cash, 25% Inflation Linked Bonds, 5% Listed Property, 3% Nominal Bonds, 1% Hedged Equity, 6%At 31 January 2012
  36. 36. Asset Allocation – Element Real Income Foreign Income, 15% Net Equity, 20% Foreign Equity, 13% Listed Property, 4% Hedged Equity, 4% Nominal Bonds, 2% Inflation Linked Money Market incl. Bonds, 11% cash, 30%At 31 December 2011
  37. 37. Conclusion on current portfolio positioning Global and local equity markets do not look cheap Propped up by low interest rates, fiscal deficits and high asset prices – a combination unlikely to be sustainable SA Equities look expensive on a relative basis We remain cautiously positioned Both within asset allocation and within equities Historical underperformers are trading at levels from where they usually outperform materially Capital preservation and yield are likely to be key focus areas in markets over the medium term
  38. 38. Element: Key Differentiators1. Our size and our investable universe2. Excellent long-term performance track record3. Top long-term risk-adjusted statistics4. Contrarian style blends well with competitors
  39. 39. Size and Shrinking Portfolio Universe Maintain 3-5 x portfolio universe advantage Insufficient resources Increased portfolio risk Constraints: 1. 5% Equity positionSource: FTSE/JSE All Share 2. < 15% Free Float (167 companies as at 30 Nov 2011) 3. Trade 30% of market volume
  40. 40. Element: Key Differentiators1. Our size and our investable universe2. Excellent long-term performance track record3. Top long-term risk-adjusted statistics4. Contrarian style blends well with competitors
  41. 41. What period should investors focus on? 100 000.000 Aggregate return 10 000.000 Aggregate Return and Standard 1 000.000 100.000 Deviation (log) 10.000 Standard 1.000 Deviation 0.100 0.010 0.001 0.000 0.000 1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month 1 Year 10 Years 100 Years Time (log)Source: MJ Mauboussin (Chief Investment Strategist, Legg Mason)
  42. 42. What period should investors focus on? 110% Time and the probability of gain 100% 90% Probability 80% 70% 60% 50% 1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month 1 Year 10 Years 100 Years Years (log)Source: MJ Mauboussin (Chief Investment Strategist, Legg Mason)
  43. 43. Element Equity: Performance & Risk Element EarthAs at 31 December 2011 ALSI RELATIVE Equity FundAnnualised since Inception 19.1% 17.3% 1.8%Annualised 10 Year 18.8% 15.1% 3.7%Ranking over 10 years QuartilePerformance 7/32 1stSortino 2/32 1stSharpe 1/32* 1st * Joint 1stMaximum drawdown 2/32 1stBeta (min = 1) 2/32 1stInception (October 2001) to 31 December 2011Current Fund Size R 477 mBenchmark (To be) ALSI
  44. 44. Element Flexible: Performance & RiskAs at 31 December 2011 Element Flexible Fund CPI + 5% RELATIVEAnnualised since Inception 16.0% 11.3% 4.7%Annualised 10 Year 15.4% 11.3% 4.1%Ranking over 10 years QuartilePerformance 4/11 2ndSortino 2/11 1stSharpe 2/11 1stMaximum drawdown 1/11 1stInception (October 2001) to 31 December 2011Current Fund Size R 459 mFlexible Benchmark CPI + 5%
  45. 45. Performance – Balanced Composite (Instit) BalancedAs at 31 December 2011 Balanced Composite RELATIVE BenchmarkAnnualised since Inception 18.4% 15.9% 2.5%Annualised 7 Year 15.4% 14.1% 1.3%Inception (October 2003) to 31 December 2011Fund Size R856mBenchmark 60% FTSE/JSE All Share Index, 25% All Bond Index & 15% Short Term Fixed Interest Index
  46. 46. Element Global Equity FundPerformance of Epoch Global Choice Fund31 December 2011 Epoch Net Return MSCI World Relative1 Year -0.60% -5.50% 4.90%3 year (ann) 12.90% 11.10% 1.80%5 year (ann) 1.30% -2.40% 3.70%Since Inception (ann) 6.20% 1.50% 4.70%Inception (September 2005) to 31 December 2011Element Global Equity Fund Return (ASISA) Foreign EQ General Peer Group Rank (Annualized) Element Global Equity 10.23% 3/26 Source: Morningstar, 29 Feb 2012
  47. 47. Element: Key Differentiators1. Our size and our investable universe2. Excellent long-term performance track record3. Top long-term risk-adjusted statistics4. Contrarian style blends well with competitors
  48. 48. Contrarian stock selection = Good blendElement Earth Equity % Coronation Top 20 Fund %OLD MUTUAL 7.1% STANDARD BANK 9.9%MTN 6.8% MTN 9.9%ANGLOGOLD 6.4% SASOL 9.4%SASOL 5.8% versus the ANGLOS 8.9% GrowthTONGAAT 4.9% Funds BHP BILLITON 6.5%REINET 4.7% NASPERS 6.1%GOLD FIELDS 4.5% NEDBANK GROUP 5.3%ANGLOS 4.4% MONDI PLC 4.0% BRITISH AMERICANAMPAK 3.7% 4.0% TOBACCOBIDVEST 3.1% BIDVEST 3.8%TOTAL 51.4% TOTAL 67.8%Source: Coronation Fund Fact Sheet, 31 Dec 2011
  49. 49. Contrarian stock selection = Good blend Element Earth Equity % Investec Equity %OLD MUTUAL 7.1% SASOL -MTN 6.8% MTN - BRITISH AMERICANANGLOGOLD 6.4% - TOBACCOSASOL 5.8% versus the SABMILLER - GrowthTONGAAT 4.9% Funds ANGLOS -REINET 4.7% BHP BILLITON -GOLD FIELDS 4.5% VODACOM -ANGLOS 4.4% CF RICHEMONT -NAMPAK 3.7% FIRSTRAND -BIDVEST 3.1% TIGER BRANDS - notTOTAL 51.4% Total providedSource: Investec Equity Fund Fact Sheet, 31 Dec 2011
  50. 50. Contrarian stock selection = Good blendElement Earth Equity % Investec Value %OLD MUTUAL 7.1% GOLD FIELDS -MTN 6.8% SASOL -ANGLOGOLD 6.4% STEINHOFF -SASOL 5.8% ANGLOS - versus theTONGAAT 4.9% Value ANGLOPLAT - FundsREINET 4.7% ANGLOGOLDGOLD FIELDS 4.5% SAPPI -ANGLOS 4.4% JD GROUP -NAMPAK 3.7% MEDICLINIC -BIDVEST 3.1% MTN - notTOTAL 51.4% Total providedSource: Investec Value Fund Fact Sheet, 31 Dec 2011
  51. 51. Contrarian stock selection = Good blendElement Earth Equity % Allan Gray Equity % BRITISH AMERICANOLD MUTUAL 7.1% 11.4% TOBACCOMTN 6.8% SASOL 11.2%ANGLOGOLD 6.4% SABMILLER 9.4% versus theSASOL 5.8% REMGRO 7.1% ValueTONGAAT 4.9% Funds STANDARD BANK 4.7%REINET 4.7% SANLAM 4.4%GOLD FIELDS 4.5% ANGLOGOLD 4.3%ANGLOS 4.4% ANGLOS 3.8%NAMPAK 3.7% IMPALA PLATINUM 3.3%BIDVEST 3.1% MONDI 2.5%TOTAL 51.4% Total 62.1%Source: Allan Gray Equity Fund Fact Sheet, 31 Dec 2011
  52. 52. Contrarian stock selection = Good blend RE:CM Flexible Equity Element Earth Equity % % FundOLD MUTUAL 7.1% SUN INTERNATIONAL 7.6%MTN 6.8% DISCOVERY 5.6%ANGLOGOLD 6.4% OLD MUTUAL 4.9%SASOL 5.8% versus the AMPLATS 4.9% ValueTONGAAT 4.9% HARMONY 3.6% Funds HOSKENREINET 4.7% 3.2% CONSOLIDATEDGOLD FIELDS 4.5% METROPOLITAN 3.2%ANGLOS 4.4% OMNIA 3.1%NAMPAK 3.7% TELKOM 3.1%BIDVEST 3.1% LONMIN 2.9%TOTAL 51.4% Total 42.1%Source: RE:CM Flexible Equity Fund Fact Sheet, 31 Dec 2011
  53. 53. Why use Element? Active Investment Enhanced Long process Term performance Contrarian view Blend well Boutique size Broader universe Voting & Fiduciary Engagement responsibility ESG research Better risk analysis No performance Equitable fees treatment of clients
  54. 54. Thank YouAny questions?
  55. 55. Disclaimer Element Investment Managers claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). The firm includes all portfolios managed by Element Investment Managers. Element Investment Managers is an independent, owner- managed company. It provides discretionary investment management services to retail and institutional clients. Element Investment Managers has been verified for the period 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2009. Currently being verified to end December 2011. Copies of our verification reports are available on request. A complete list and description of our composites is available by contacting Ian Jones at +27 21 426 1313, or at ian@elementim.co.za
  56. 56. CONTACT DETAILS:• Natalie Smith natalie@elementim.co.za (083 306 6460)• Ian Jones ian@elementim.co.za (071 675 4282) Thank you www.elementim.co.za

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