2009 Korean Economic Forecast Final

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Consumer Trends and Response to the Economic Crisis

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2009 Korean Economic Forecast Final

  1. 1. the sixth sense of business TM Korean Economic Forecast 2009
  2. 2. Consumption follows Consumer Attitudes <ul><li>Consumer sentiment has been deflated by the economic developments worldwide and in Korea </li></ul>Attitude Index Consumption Expenditure Index 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 3/4 2/4 1/4 3/4 4/4 2/4 1/4 4/4 3/4 2/4 1/4 4/4 3/4 2/4 1/4 4/4 3/4 2/4 1/4 [Source: Samsung Economy Research Institute] 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 3/4 2/4 1/4 3/4 4/4 2/4 1/4 4/4 3/4 2/4 1/4 4/4 3/4 2/4 1/4 4/4 3/4 2/4 1/4 30 40 50 60 70 30 40 50 60 70
  3. 3. Consumption to Decline <ul><li>The real questions: </li></ul><ul><li>When will the consumer recover and </li></ul><ul><li>During the downturn which consumers will continue to buy what? </li></ul>[Source: Samsung Economy Research Institute] Future Consumption Expenditure Index: an index that represents consumer’s expected expenditure for a year by comparing from the current based year. It is preceded by 3~6 months to the actual expenditure. Future Consumption Expenditure Index 3/4 2/4 1/4 4/4 3/4 2/4 1/4 4/4 3/4 2/4 1/4 4/4 3/4 2/4 1/4 4/4 3/4 2/4 1/4 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 40 50 60
  4. 4. TNS – some facts the sixth sense of business TM The World's Largest Custom Market Research company Market Leader in Europe and Korea Global network of 15,000 full-time employees spanning 80 countries 8 Market Sectors with dedicated researchers We are - where you are. 300+ offices globally
  5. 5. the sixth sense of business TM we think differently
  6. 6. The Good News: Korean Consumers Quick to Recover “ Will living standards improve/stay the same/get worse within a year?” Source: TNS Fieldwork EU Economy Forecast 2007 Post Economic Crisis 2002 World Cup Fever
  7. 7. The Bad News: Everything Can be Cut Monthly Expenditure per Urban Household (Increase Rate) [Source: Korean National Statistics Office] (Base : 2005=100, Salary & wage earners' households) 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2001 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1st half of 2008 2007 Culture and recreation Fuel, light and water charges Meals outside Clothing and footwear 50 100 150 200 250 300 Fuel,light and water charges Education Medical care Meals outside Food and beverages Housing Culture and recreation Furniture and utensils Clothing and footwear Post Economic Crisis 2002 World Cup
  8. 8. Tips for the downturn
  9. 9. All in the Family Even in recessions, people will not skimp out on family-related things. Stimulate instinct Go for instinct rather than logic. All about comfort Stressed-out consumers are willing to indulge. Build the Brand! Focus on brand image and trust rather than specific product benefits. Youth Market!! The youth market isn’t sensitive to recessions ~ tips for the downturn [Source: Cheil Communications]
  10. 10. Optimize Every Opportunity Know your customer
  11. 11. Generally, their spending will decline
  12. 12. But he is still going to purchase the new fall & winter fashions
  13. 13. And she’s still going to get her nails done
  14. 14. This family will be moving to a new house
  15. 15. This couple is planning on going on a trip during the winter
  16. 16. He will be buying a new car in a few months.
  17. 17. This year, she’ll be entering pre-school and starting piano lessons
  18. 18. He’s getting a gym membership and new work-out clothes
  19. 19. She’s planning to get Lasik surgery and sign up for Japanese classes
  20. 20. 95%+ of consumption will remain sales you must capture
  21. 21. inside the mind…
  22. 22. the sixth sense of business TM

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