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www.design-environment.com
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Environmental Applications of
Modelling and Simulation in
Business and Government
Decision Making
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Modelling, Simulation,
and
Environmental Policy and
Governance
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance
Problem
Economic and social pressures on natural resources
globally
Climate change is a growing concern politically
Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and
adaptation to a changing climate are priority issues
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance
Why modelling and simulation?
Uncertainty in environmental response to climate change
and variability
Variations in resource use - timber, water, hydroelectric
power generation
Global climate models for possible realities in the future
Natural disasters and resource shortages
Educated decisions in relation to natural resources and
environmental processes
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance
The models
Process-based
GCMs (global climate / general circulation models)
- Used for supporting international agreements - Kyoto Protocol
- Equations resolved over a discrete framework (grid) from 1° to 5°
Regional Climate Models
- Focused on applications at the meso-scale and informing policies for
regions (provincial, state, nation)
- Focuses on understanding processes and events in regions (eg. Quebec
ice storm)
Ecological - Biogeochemical - Hydrological Models
- Used for understanding environmental processes such as ecological
function and impacts on society
- Useful in applications such as agriculture and water quality
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance
The models
Process-based
(IPCC, 2009)
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance
The models
Heuristic
A conceptualization of how natural and social systems work
C li m ate Chan g e
Large - s c a le
d i sturban c e
Road Bu il d i ng (S l o w var i ab l e)
Large - s c a le d i st u rbanc e
(Fast v a r i ab le )
Ppt / ET
A mazo n F orest
Ecos y stems
Large Sca le Pat t ern Large Sca le P r ocess
S m a ll Sca le Pattern S m a ll Sca le Process
(fra g m ente d fore s t) (f i re)
Rio Madeiras 7:10 AM July 8, 2006
Deforestat io n Burn i ng to c le ar l and Rio Madeiras 1:00 PM July 8, 2006
(Fast v a r i ab le ) (Fast v a r i ab le )
Rio Madeiras 6:00 PM July 8, 2006
(Oswald, 2008)
Systems Diagram - forces affecting Amazonian ecosystems, feedback mechanisms, and
cross-scale connections
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance
The models
Geospatial
Raster and Vector based Geographic Information
- Analyse land pattern
- Estimate social and environmental processes that
drive change
Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission
1. Terra 2. Aqua
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance
Policy Application - Nicaragua
Tropical Forests and Climate Change Adaptation - CIFOR (2008)
The Challenge:
Climate change risk and mitigation - adaptation strategies need to be
reported to UNFCCC
Geospatial and process-based models used to assess these risks
-geospatial calculation of land cover types
-projections of climate impacts with GCMs and regional models
Findings:
-Reduced precipitation and possibility of ecosystem state shift in
north east between 2050 and 2100 based on model output
-Total fixed carbon of 72 469 Gg from forests and pasture
restoration. Climate change and land cover change may impact this
store
-Risk to population of water and hydro-electric power scarcity due to
climate change
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance
Development - Democratic Republic of Congo
Biotechnology for Development in Africa - Carbon Strategy (2009)
(http://www.bdafoundation.org/)
The Challenge:
- Create enterprises in DRC that capitalize on natural resources
(medicinal plants and biomass) and enhance social and economic well-
being of communities
Relevance of simulation and modelling:
(BDA Foundation, 2009)
- Use geospatial, process, and heuristic models to determine the
amount of carbon sequestered and harvested from forests
- Forest carbon has a price, modelling helps to measure how much
value exists in the forests
(BDA Foundation, 2009)
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Modelling, Environment,
and
Business Decision Making
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Business
Problem
Energy industry is evolving rapidly in response to growing
demands, technological innovation, and new regulations
Regulatory frameworks and ‘green’ government programs are
evolving rapidly this year
Energy companies need to examine different scenarios related to
GHG emissions targets, compliance methods, and business goals
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Business
Why modelling and simulation?
Simulation can be one tool used to examine possible
scenarios that a company can follow
Modelling is one way of attaching metrics to abstract policy
and regulatory rhetoric
These scenarios can augment team-based decision making
and business strategy formulation
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Business
Energy Sector -
DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009)
The Challenge:
- Find most suitable way of preparing for upcoming GHG regulations considering
lack of clarity in regulations and evolving market conditions for various energy
sources
Relevance of simulation and modelling:
- Use systems analysis with expert knowledge of carbon markets, regulatory
processes and environmental technology
- Simple models used to facilitate multi-stake holder decision making
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Business
Energy Sector -
DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009)
Current Scenario:
- 20% reduction in GHG intensity emissions from 2006 levels by 2020
- Compliance options: (1) buy domestic offset credits
(2) buy international offset credits (10%)
(3) invest in environmental technology fund (Start with 70% for
compliance, reduce each year)
(4) adapt and reduce emissions
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Business
Energy Sector -
DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009)
Current Scenario:
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Business
Energy Sector -
DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009)
Potential Scenario:
- 20% (or greater) reduction in GHG emissions from 2006 levels by 2020 with
a ‘cap and trade’ system
- Radically evolved renewable energy sector augmented by 1 billion dollar
federal Clean Energy Fund
- Changes in regulations and market situation create a dynamic new decision
making context
M + S Strategy:
- Use dialogue as a key technique to determine what strategic priorities are and
constraints to action.
- From there, apply quantitative methods and tools as appropriate.
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Business
What’s Next?
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Business
What’s Next?
Wide Open Field? Kind of .... but there are clear areas of focus:
- better output from coupled process models
- integration of remote sensing with process models
- heuristic models that facilitate planning for sustainability in industry
Modelling and Simulation activities and technology can support all of
the above.
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment
Thank-you
Merci
For more Information: davido@design-environment.com
www.design-environment.com
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.