DE presentation to IISD on May 7, 2008. Title: Amazon Resilience and Business Evolution

DE Design and Environment Environmental Science Design ‣ Ecology ‣ Multimedia and Film ‣ Systems Analysis ‣ Expositions / Spatial ‣ Remote Sensing ‣ Systems and Processes www.design-environment.com Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald

DE Design and Environment 1. Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing II. Design, Environment and Business Evolution Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Environmental Science ‣ Ecology ‣ Systems Analysis ‣ Remote Sensing Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing CONTEXT Tropical rainforests in the Amazon affected by timber harvesting, pasture conversion, and ﬁre disturbance Need to assess spatial patterns and ecological processes in response to disturbances Large amount of data available from LBA (Large- Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Project in Amazonia) Synthesis, integration, and analysis of data is required Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing Time Magazine, Thursday March 27, 2008 Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing PROBLEM Can disturbances such as deforestation, ﬁre, and climate change in the Amazon basin be signiﬁcant enough to cause these ecosystems to reorganize into new functional forms? In the state of Mato Grosso, what is the resilience of rain forests to disturbances? Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing THE REGION Areal extent: 5.8 million km2 Rich in biodiversity Humid tropical rainforest that is closely coupled with the atmosphere Estimated that 50% of incoming precipitation is recycled Land-use change challenges Roberts et al, 2003 Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC FORCES Deforestation is a dominant force affecting ecosystems The “Arc of deforestation” in Mato Grosso has intense activity Model projection of up to 40% forest loss by 2050 due to current agricultural expansion Soares-Filho et al, 2006 Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing THEORETICAL CONCEPTS Ecological Resilience Atmosphere / Biosphere Coupling Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE Ability of these systems to absorb changes of state variables, driving variables, and parameters (Holling, 1973) Beisner et al, 2003 May be dictated by certain conditions (amount biomass, temperature, precipitation, nutrient availability) (Scheffer et al, 2001) Landscape pattern may be a representation of states in ecosystems (Van de Koppel and Rietkerk, 2004) Scheffer et al, 2001 Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing STATE MODEL Climate Climate Drying Drying HIG H LOW Ppt / ET Ppt / ET Rainforest Savanna h Fire Fire Land-use / Fueling of fire Land-use / Fueling of fire deforestation deforestation Systems Diagram - biosphere - atmosphere coupling and alternative stable states Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing SYSTEM MODEL Climate Change Large-scale disturbance Road Building (Slow variable) Large-scale disturbance (Fast variable) Ppt / ET Amazon Forest Ecosystems Large Scale Pattern Large Scale Process Small Scale Pattern Small Scale Process (fragmented forest) (fire) Deforestation Burning to clear land (Fast variable) (Fast variable) Systems Diagram - forces affecting Amazonian ecosystems, feedback mechanisms, and cross-scale connections Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing TIME SCALE - DISTURBANCES Pre-industrial era Large scale agricultural Small-scale disturbance Start of agricultural Production causing From sugar cane and Development from significant ecological Cacao plantations Southern Brazil fragmentation (shown by terra preta) 1491 1870 1950 Contact by Columbus Start of Rubber Boom Initiation of ‘militaristic’ Development policy Industrial and Modern Era Increased ecological Increased ecological Droughts in 1988/89 Impacts due to road Impacts due And 2005. Pressure formation expansion in crops On ecosystems from such as soy less plant available water 1967 1995 2000 Completion of Implementation of BR167 Policies to support Transamazonia ethanol and soy Period of study Highway production 2001-2006 Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing RESILIENCE VIEWS Resilience View Large-scale top-down Small-scale bottom-up Reinforcing Precipitation and Atmosphere-biosphere Population/Community integrity parameters coupling Climate change Deforestation Potential disturbance factors Large scale development planning Fire 1 000’s – 100 000’s km2 1 – 100 km2 Spatial Scale Decades Months to multiple years Temporal Scale Comparison of Resilience Views Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing ATMOSPHERE - BIOSPHERE COUPLING Evaporated water recycled in boundary layer and forms precipitation Pecipitation feeds back into rainforest Forms a negative feedback system In the Amazon, 50% of precipitation comes from recycled water (Salati and Vose, 1984) Rio Madeiras 7:10 AM July 8,2006 Rio Madeiras 1:00 PM July 8,2006 Rio Madeiras 6:00 PM July 8,2006 Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing METHODS - VEGETATION REMOTE SENSING MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index 1km Spatial resolution 16 and 30 day composites High spectral and temporal resolution Allows for analysis of seasonal variation in vegetation (spatial and temporal) Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing METHODS - VEGETATION REMOTE SENSING Transect analysis - N/S and E/W 100 km x 100 km samples (sites) General system characterization Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing METHODS - ECOSYSTEM CLASSIFICATION Average dry season values calculated from Frequency of EVI observations in the Dry Season - 2001 to 2006 2001 to 2006 (May to August each year) 400000 Frequency distribution of EVI values 350000 Number of Observations bimodal 300000 250000 Field studies show similar EVI values for 200000 savanna vs. rainforest (Ratana et al, 2003) 150000 Classiﬁcation values established based on 100000 these results 50000 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 EVI Value Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing METHODS - PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS Precipitation data used from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) 0.25 degree spatial resolution (~27.5 km) (Adler, 2005) Aggregated monthly from high frequency samples Spatially consistent TRMM works well for average rainfall periods (< 300 mm / month) (Aragao et al, 2005) Slightly overestimates rainfall in drought conditions (Aragao et al, 2005) Slightly underestimates rainfall in periods of high precipitation (Aragao et al, 2005) Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing METHODS - PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS Dry season pronounced in TRMM data Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing RESULTS - SYSTEM CHARACTERIZATION Site 1: EVI vs. PPT, Lat. Transect (2001 - 2006) 450 60 400 50 350 300 40 Latitudinal transect comparison PPT (mm) 250 PPT (mm) 30 EVI (0 - 100) 200 Average values per month calculated from 150 20 2001 to 2005 100 10 50 Site 5 (near highway) showed greater dry 0 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D Month season reduction in precipitation and EVI level Site 5: EVI vs. PPT, Lat. Transect (2001 - 2006) 450 60 400 50 350 300 40 PPT (mm) 250 PPT (mm) 30 EVI (0 - 100) 200 150 20 100 10 50 0 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D Month Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing RESULTS - SYSTEM CHARACTERIZATION Site 5: EVI vs. PPT, Lat. Transect (2001) 450 60 400 50 350 Latitudinal comparison of site 5 between years 300 40 PPT (mm) 250 PPT (mm) 30 EVI (0 - 100) 2001 compared to 2005 (year of strong drought) 200 150 20 100 Precipitation ﬂatlined in 2005 - almost no rain 50 10 0 0 EVI levels showed a longer and more pronounced Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01 Month reduction Site 5: EVI vs. PPT, Lat. Transect (2005) 450 60 400 50 350 300 40 PPT (mm) 250 PPT (mm) 30 EVI (0 - 100) 200 150 20 100 10 50 0 0 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01 Month Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing RESULTS - ECOSYSTEM CHANGE Three classes established: forest, transition, savanna (non forest) Spatial comparison between 2001 and 2006 Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing RESULTS - ECOSYSTEM CHANGE Ecosystem Change in Mato Gross from 2001 to 2006 State changes quantiﬁed 90000 80000 Forest to Savannah shift clearly dominate 70000 Observed Changes between 2001 to 2006 60000 50000 Validation in progress 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Savannah to Savannah to Forest to Forest to Forest Transition Transition Savannah Change Type Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing RESULTS - FIRE FREQUENCY MODIS Thermal anomaly data used to assess fire presence (aka hot pixels) Fire Activity - 2001 and 2005, Mato Grosso 50000 MOD14A2 8 day composites were 45000 aggregated over each year per pixel 40000 35000 1km spatial resolution Fire Frequency 30000 Fire Frequency - 2001 25000 Fire Frequency - 2005 Common annual pattern showing increased 20000 forest fires in the dry season 15000 10000 2005 showed a significantly greater amount 5000 of fires in part cause by the drought 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D Month Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing RESULTS - FIRE FREQUENCY Spatial pattern of fire presence examined Key question is to determine influence of human activities on fire presence Relationship between distance from highway and fire presence Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing RESULTS - FIRE FREQUENCY Fire Activity vs. Distance From Highway, Mato Grosso 0.80 Reverse pattern to what is generally 0.75 expected 0.70 Fire Frequency (Fire/km2) 0.65 Currently examining analytical method (buffer choice) 0.60 Fire Frequency 0.55 There may be the inﬂuence of smaller 0.50 road networks that have extended over 0.45 time 0.40 0-5km from road 5-25km from road 25-50km from road 50-75km from road More than 75km from road Distance from Highway (km) Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems Using Remote Sensing CONCLUSIONS Remote Sensing can be an effective tool for monitoring ecosystem resilience Different disturbances may have confounding effects that are difficult to de-couple There appears to be a reduction in the amount of rain forest from 2001 to 2006 Combined effects of pronounced droughts influenced by El Nino and Southern Atlantic Sea surface temperature anomaly with land use issues indicates these ecosystems are being weakened The possibility of wide-scale shift from rain forest to savanna must be further examined with field data, remote sensing, and process models Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Design ‣ Multimedia and Film ‣ Expositions / Spatial ‣ Systems and Processes Design, Environment and Business Evolution Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Design, Environment, and Business Evolution PORTFOLIO HIGHLIGHTS: EXPO 2000 - HUMANKIND, NATURE, TECHNOLOGY Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Design, Environment, and Business Evolution PORTFOLIO HIGHLIGHTS: SULTAN BIN ABDULAZIZ SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CENTER Total size: 300,000 square feet 43 computer interactive programs 42 videos 161 Physical Interactive exhibits 950 Graphic Panels Produced in Arabic and English Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

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DE Design and Environment Design, Environment, and Business Evolution PORTFOLIO HIGHLIGHTS: HR MACMILLAN SPACE CENTER - SCHEMATIC DESIGN Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Design, Environment, and Business Evolution BUSINESS EVOLUTION - ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT -Redesign of convention business practice -Emerging market of Environmental Management -Three-fold approach to EM (Energy, Materials, Environmental Health) -Small and medium sized enterprises want Green -This is a DESIGN problem Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment Support and Collaboration Dr. Garry Peterson Dr. Jonathan Seaquist Professor Mario Bunge Dr. Charles Lin Dr. Carlos Nobre LBA Research Community McGill School of Environment J.W. McConnell Fellowship for Environmental Research Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE Design and Environment POTENTIAL PROJECTS WITH IISD: 1. International Collaborative Study on Avoided Deforestation, Climate Change, and Indigenous Rights in Canada and Brazil - Prof. Gisele Ferreira Araujo (Professor of Law, University of Sao Paolo) - IISD - United Nations 2. Application of Remote Sensing to estimating ecosystem services and “ecosystem health” 3. Analysis of advanced multimedia communication tools for communication of Sustainable Development principles 4. Assessment of Environmental Management and the Medical Industry -DE -IISD -Selected Industrial Partner(s) -Other institutional partners 5. IISD as an institutional partner on MyEarthInteractive.com Presentation to Natural Resources Analysis Group - International Institute for Sustainable Development. Winnipeg, Manitoba. May 7, 2008 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2008 DE Design and Environment Inc.

DE presentation to IISD on May 7, 2008. Title: Amazon Resilience and Business Evolution

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