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Inventing the Future
Inventing the Future
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Inventing the Future

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[See a more recent version of this talk here: http://www.slideshare.net/DavidEvansUVa/invent-the-future-operating-systems-in-2029]

http://rust-class.org

How to make Predictions
You Will (but the company that brought it to you wasn't AT&T)
Why is Human Progress Increasing Exponentially
Neil deGrasse Tyson and Science's Endless Golden Age
Malthus
Malthus' Fallacy
What the Future Holds

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  • 1. Alan Kay’s Dynabook (1972)
  • 2. This Week in cs4414 Today: What will happen in the next 15 years Tomorrow (4:59pm Wednesday): team project submission due link, well-written description if you want to demo Thursday if you want extension to submit final project Thursday’s class: Project Demos Friday (11:49pm): Individual Submissions Due includes evaluation of your project teammates 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 1
  • 3. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Neils Bohr Det er svært at spå, især om fremtiden. Robert Storm Petersen 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 2
  • 4. It is difficult to predict, especially about the future 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 3
  • 5. Past and Future 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 4
  • 6. AT&T’s “You Will” (1993-4) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 5
  • 7. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 6
  • 8. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 7
  • 9. Prediction #1 Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft combined will contribute less valuable technological innovation to society in 19902030 than Bell Labs did in 1940-1980. transistor (1947) 3 December 2013 information theory, cryptography (1945) University of Virginia cs4414 cellular telephony (1947) 8
  • 10. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 9
  • 11. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Firstcarried your medical history in your wallet Release 2003 Agents conducted business in a language Created by Ahti Heinla , Priit Education you don’t understand rd learned special things from faraway places year had an assistant who lived in your Kasesalu, and Jaan Tallinn (3 had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer at University car with a television fixed your of Tartu in 1994) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 10
  • 12. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 11
  • 13. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 12
  • 14. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption Berners-Lee Sir Tim borrowed a book from thousands of First WWW Prototype at CERN 1990miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 13
  • 15. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet Marc Andreesen conducted business in a language Student at U. Illinois Education you don’t understand NCSA Mosaic released in 1993 learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer David Filo and Jerry Yang fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 Students at Stanford University of Virginia cs4414 Yahoo 1994 14
  • 16. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 15
  • 17. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 16
  • 18. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history inGPS (10 sats): used in 1990-1 Gulf War your wallet conducted First Garmin: $2500business in a language Education you don’t understand GPS (24 learned special things from faraway places sats) Operational 1995lived in your had an assistant who had a classmate who is thousands of1996: Dual-Use Directive miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 17
  • 19. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 18
  • 20. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 19
  • 21. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television amazon.com opens: July 1995 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 20
  • 22. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 21
  • 23. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 22
  • 24. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 23
  • 25. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 24
  • 26. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 25
  • 27. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach August 2011 Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 26
  • 28. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach August 2011 Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 27
  • 29. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 28
  • 30. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 29
  • 31. $100,000,000 Cost to sequence human genome Moore’s Law prediction (halve every 18 months) $10,000,000 Predicting steady technology improvement is easy! $1,000,000 $100,000 $10,000 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 30 Feb 2013 Aug 2012 Feb 2012 Aug 2011 Feb 2011 Aug 2010 Feb 2010 Aug 2009 Feb 2009 Aug 2008 Feb 2008 Aug 2007 Feb 2007 Aug 2006 Feb 2006 Aug 2005 Feb 2005 Aug 2004 Feb 2004 Aug 2003 Feb 2003 Aug 2002 Feb 2002 Aug 2001 $1,000
  • 32. $100,000,000 Cost to sequence human genome Moore’s Law prediction (halve every 18 months) $10,000,000 $1,000,000 $100,000 $10,000 University of Virginia cs4414 31 Feb 2013 Aug 2012 Feb 2012 Aug 2011 Feb 2011 Aug 2010 Feb 2010 Aug 2009 Feb 2009 Aug 2008 Feb 2008 Aug 2007 Feb 2007 Aug 2006 Feb 2006 Aug 2005 Feb 2005 Aug 2004 Feb 2004 Aug 2003 Feb 2003 Aug 2002 Aug 2001 3 December 2013 Feb 2002 Ion torrent Personal Genome Machine $1,000
  • 33. Human Genome Sequencing Using Unchained Base Reads on Self-Assembling DNA Nanoarrays. Radoje Drmanac, Andrew B. Sparks, Matthew J. Callow, Aaron L. Halpern, Norman L. Burns, Bahram G. Kermani, Paolo Carnevali, Igor Nazarenko, Geoffrey B. Nilsen, George Yeung, Fredrik Dahl, Andres Fernandez, Bryan Staker, Krishna P. Pant, Jonathan Baccash, Adam P. Borcherding, Anushka Brownley, Ryan Cedeno, Linsu Chen, Dan Chernikoff, Alex Cheung, Razvan Chirita, Benjamin Curson, Jessica C. Ebert, Coleen R. Hacker, Robert Hartlage, Brian Hauser, Steve Huang, Yuan Jiang, Vitali Karpinchyk, Mark Koenig, Calvin Kong, Tom Landers, Catherine Le, Jia Liu, Celeste E. McBride, Matt Morenzoni, Robert E. Morey, Karl Mutch, Helena Perazich, Kimberly Perry, Brock A. Peters, Joe Peterson, Charit L. Pethiyagoda, Kaliprasad Pothuraju, Claudia Richter, Abraham M. Rosenbaum, Shaunak Roy, Jay Shafto, Uladzislau Sharanhovich, Karen W. Shannon, Conrad G. Sheppy, Michel Sun, Joseph V. Thakuria, Anne Tran, Dylan Vu, Alexander Wait Zaranek, Xiaodi Wu, Snezana Drmanac, Arnold R. Oliphant, William C. Banyai, Bruce Martin, Dennis G. Ballinger, George M. Church, Clifford A. Reid. Science, January 2010. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 32
  • 34. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 33
  • 35. Commerce renewed your driver’s license at a cash machine bought concert tickets from a cash machine checked out of a supermarket a whole cart at a time sent someone a fax from the beach Travel crossed the country without asking for directions paid a toll without slowing down Media Consumption borrowed a book from thousands of miles away watched the movie you wanted to the minute you wanted to Video Chat tucked your baby in from a phone booth put your heads together when you’re not together attended a meeting in your bare feet Security opened doors with the sound of your voice kept an eye on your home when you’re not at home Agents carried your medical history in your wallet conducted business in a language Education you don’t understand learned special things from faraway places had an assistant who lived in your had a classmate who is thousands of miles away computer fixed your car with a television 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 34
  • 36. Prediction #2 Within 15 years, at least 95% of the world’s adult population will have done everything on the “You Will” list (or something comparable but much better). Note: this implies end to world poverty! 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 35
  • 37. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 36
  • 38. 1948 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 37
  • 39. 1994 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 38
  • 40. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 39
  • 41. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 40
  • 42. “Today, of Americans officially designated as ‘poor’, 99 percent have electricity, running water, flush toilets, and a refrigerator; 95 percent have a television, 88 percent a telephone, 71 percent a car and 70 percent air conditioning. Cornelius Vanderbilt had none of these.” Matt Ridley 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 41
  • 43. Pace of Progress 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 42
  • 44. Year of Invention -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 0 Rank on List 10 20 30 40 50 S ::= NP V NP ::= N and NP Cooking (-400 000) Language (-300 000) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 Wheel (~4000 BC) 43
  • 45. Last Millennium 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 44
  • 46. Last Millennium 1000 1100 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3 December 2013 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 #1: Printing Press University of Virginia cs4414 45
  • 47. Last Millennium 1000 1100 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3 December 2013 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 #1: Printing Press 1700 1800 1900 #2: Electricity Nikola Tesla University of Virginia cs4414 46
  • 48. Last Millennium 1000 1100 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3 December 2013 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 #2: Electricity #1: Printing Press #4: Semiconductor #9: Internet #16: Personal Computer University of Virginia cs4414 47
  • 49. Prediction #3 Over the next 15 years, there will be inventions that change the world at least as much as the semiconductor, personal computer, and Internet did over the last 30. Drone delivery? 3D fabrication? Printing food? 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 AI? 48
  • 50. Science’s Endless Golden Age Neil deGrasse Tyson
  • 51. “If you’re going to use your computer to simulate some phenomenon in the universe, then it only becomes interesting if you change the scale of that phenomenon by at least a factor of 10. … For a 3D simulation, an increase by a factor of 10 in each of the three dimensions increases your volume by a factor of 1000.” What is the asymptotic running time for simulating the universe? 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 50
  • 52. Astrophysics and Moore’s Law 3) (n • Simulating universe is • Moore’s “law”: computing power doubles every 18 months • Dr. Tyson: to understand something new about the universe, need to scale by 10x How long does it take to know twice as much about the universe? 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 51
  • 53. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 52
  • 54. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 53
  • 55. 15 years 1000x computing power  double understanding re’s an ritten rule in ophysics: your puter lation must before you Neil deGrasse Tyson Will there be any mystery left in the Universe when you die? 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 54
  • 56. Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former. Albert Einstein 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 55
  • 57. The Endless Golden Age • Golden Age – period in which knowledge/quality of something improves exponentially • At any point in history, half of what is known about astrophysics was discovered in the previous 15 years! – Moore’s law today, but other advances previously (and tomorrow): telescopes, photocopiers, clocks, agriculture, drone Accumulating 4% per year => doubling every 15 years! delivery, personal assistant, etc. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 56
  • 58. Log scale: straight line = exponential curve! 3 December 2013 “Any physical quantity that’s growing exponentially predicts a disaster, you simply can’t go beyond certain major limits.” Gordon Moore (2007) Koomey’s Law:Assessing Trends in the Electrical Efficiency of Computation Over Time University of Virginia cs4414 57
  • 59. An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century-it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate)... Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to the Singularity — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and non-biological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of2013 3 December light. University of Virginia cs4414 Ray Kurzweil 58
  • 60. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 59
  • 61. Sustainability is a very depressing goal for a scientist/engineer – we should be striving for progress! 1. share what we have with the rest of the world (by lowering costs) 2. invent new things that improve the quality, interconnectedness, and length of human life 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 60
  • 62. Golden Ages or Golden Catastrophes? 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 61
  • 63. Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus, Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 62
  • 64. The great and unlooked for discoveries that have taken place of late years in natural philosophy, the increasing diffusion of general knowledge from the extension of the art of printing, the ardent and unshackled spirit of inquiry that prevails throughout the lettered and even unlettered world, … have all concurred to lead many able men into the opinion that we were touching on a period big with the most important changes, changes that would in some measure be decisive of the future fate of mankind.” 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 63
  • 65. I think I may fairly make two postulata. –First, that food is necessary to the existence of man. –Secondly, that the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain…. Assuming then my postulata, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio. Food per person = (n) / (kn) approaches 0 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 64
  • 66. Malthus’ Fallacy? 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 65
  • 67. Malthus’ Fallacy He forgot how he started: The great and unlooked for discoveries that have taken place of late years in natural philosophy, the increasing diffusion of general knowledge from the extension of the art of printing, the ardent and unshackled spirit of inquiry that prevails throughout the lettered and even unlettered world… 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 66
  • 68. Golden Age of Food Production Agriculture is an “endless golden age” field: production from the same land increases as ~ (1.02n) Increasing knowledge of farming, weather forecasting, plant domestication, genetic engineering, pest repellants, distribution channels, preservatives, etc. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 67
  • 69. Growing Corn 1906: < 1,000 pounds per acre 2006: 10,000 pounds per acre Michael Pollan’s The Omnivore’s Dilemma 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 68
  • 70. Note: Log axis! Corn Yield http://www.agbioforum.org/v2n1/v2n1a10-ruttan.htm 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 69
  • 71. https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=corn+yield+china+vs.+us 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 70
  • 72. Green Revolution Norman Borlaug (1914-2009) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 71
  • 73. “At a time when doom-sayers were hopping around saying everyone was going to starve, Norman was working. He moved to Mexico and lived among the people there until he figured out how to improve the output of the farmers. So that saved a million lives. Then he packed up his family and moved to India, where in spite of a war with Pakistan, he managed to introduce new wheat strains that quadrupled their food output. So that saved another million. You get it? But he wasn't done. He did the same thing with a new rice in China. He's doing the same thing in Africa -- as much of Africa as he's allowed to visit. When he won the Nobel Prize in 1970, they said he had saved a billion people. That's BILLION! BUH! That's Carl Sagan BILLION with a "B"! And most of them were a different race from him. Norman is the greatest human being, and you probably never heard of him.” Penn Jillette (Penn & Teller) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 72
  • 74. Malthus was wrong about #2 Also Advances in science (birth control), medicine (higher life expectancy), education, and societal and political changes (e.g., regulation in China) have reduced k (it is < 1 in many countries now!) 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 73
  • 75. Upcoming Malthusian Catastrophes? http://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/03/12/world-energy-consumption-since-1820-in-charts/ 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 74
  • 76. 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 75
  • 77. “Cornucopian View” Few resources are really finite All scientific things have endless golden ages Knowledge accumulates Knowledge makes it easier to acquire more (We hope) Human ingenuity and economics and politics will continue solve problems before they become catastrophes No one will sell the last gallon of gas for $3 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 76
  • 78. Prediction #4 The vast majority of jobs people have today will be automated, and the fraction of the world’s population who can produce something of economic value (i.e., that cannot be done better and cheaper by machines) will plummet. Automated Mall Cop 3 December 2013 Automated Warehouse University of Virginia cs4414 77
  • 79. Will the elimination of tedious human work cause mass riots or mass rejoicing? Luddites, 1812 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 78
  • 80. Charles Vest’s slide idea! America will always do the right thing but only after exhausting all other options. Winston Churchill 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 79
  • 81. Charge The best way to predict the future is to invent it. — Alan Kay Project submissions by 4:59pm tomorrow! 3 December 2013 University of Virginia cs4414 80

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