Datamonitor's top five green business predictions for 2011
Datamonitor's top five green business predictions for 2011 Following three turbulent growth years for the global cleantech industry, concern is now setting in across some of the more mature cleantech markets. Against an uncertain and shifting backdrop, Datamonitor makes its top five predictions for global green business in 2011 and beyond.
1. Low-carbon power generation will grow at a tremendous pace The global power industry is in the early stages of a massive transformation program led by China, the US, and Europe that will see it shift direction and expand radically over the coming decades. Long-term prospects continue to improve for both nuclear and renewable energy sources, supported by government incentives and higher fossil fuel prices. From 2007 to 2035, the share of world electricity generation from renewable sources will grow from 18% to 23%, with hydropower and wind expected to be the largest contributors to the increase in renewable power output. Of the 4,500TWh of new renewable generation capacity, 2,400TWh (54%) will be hydropower and 1,200TWh (26%) will come from wind. The International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook 2010 confirms that while forms of renewable power generation other than hydroelectricity and wind remain a small part of the total, biomass, waste, and tidal/wave/oceanic energy output levels are expected to increase from roughly 235TWh to 870TWh (a compound annual growth rate of nearly 4.8%) over the projected period. In 2011, there will be more strong growth in low-carbon energy generation as the investment market is progressively opened up to institutional investors. 2035 = 23% World electricity generation from renewable sources 2007 = 18%
2. China will solidify its role as the world's green superpower China is now the world's largest consumer of energy, ahead of the US, which it also surpassed as the world's greatest emitter of greenhouse gases. Energy is a major strategic issue for China's national security, economic development, and social stability. As standards of living improve, so will the country's green energy ambitions. China's massive renewable energy program aims to generate 15% of power needs from renewable energy sources by 2020. To meet this target, more than $1tn of investment will be made. Of the various forms of renewable power generation, the outlook for wind power in China is the strongest globally. China is also expected to make an increasingly large contribution to the global solar energy market, albeit from a modest base, while deploying record levels of hydropower capacity in ways and locations that Western governments no longer attempt. China has also revealed plans to build 10 nuclear reactors at a cost of $121.5bn, in addition to 25 already under construction, in an attempt to generate 5% of its power from nuclear by 2020. These reactors will be some of the world's most technologically advanced (e.g. Westinghouse's AP1000 and China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corporation's CPR-1000, as well as other high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and fast reactors) and will deliver an eightfold increase in nuclear capacity from 10.8GW currently to 86GW by 2020. This will make China the world's second largest source of nuclear power generation after the US. China's $736bn plan to develop nuclear, wind, solar, and biomass power generation will have enormous implications along the low-carbon energy value chain. China to invest in renewable 10 nuclear reactors at a cost of $121.5bn + 25 already under construction $1tn
3. President Obama's environmental agenda will stall In 2011, the Obama administration will forge ahead with plans to curb US carbon dioxide emissions and reduce its reliance on energy imports. However, the president's plans to deliver legislation to Congress in installments will be met by fierce opposition from Republicans. Democrats and environmental groups should brace themselves for congressional investigations into the science behind climate change, the Obama administration's handling of the BP oil spill, and the legality of current and proposed environmental legislation. Coupled with the administration's failure to make progress on market mechanisms such as carbon cap-and-trade (mandated in the Copenhagen Accord), it is clear that the US's climate change policies and its international credibility are in poor shape. There is little consolation for President Obama from a Supreme Court ruling allowing the Environmental Protection Agency to regulate greenhouse gas emissions and a tax bill compromise allowing an extension of grants and tax breaks for green projects. The COP17 climate change conference in Durban will feel the full force of the new Republican power bloc, which will challenge any global deal as well as the Obama administration's wider green agenda. The COP17 climate change conference in Durban will feel the full force of the new Republican power bloc ” “
4. Demand-side management and "smart" networks will remain big business Technologies that deliver ambitious reductions in industrial and commercial energy demand at minimal cost will prevail, as will those that boost decentralized and sustainable power generation and infrastructure capacity. Indeed, global investment in small-scale, distributed generation projects surged by 91% last year to approximately E60bn (according to Bloomberg). This was mainly for rooftop and other small-scale solar projects, mostly in Germany but also in the US, Czech Republic, and Italy. The creation of innovative policies in the UK such as the Green Deal (the government's proposal to enable private companies to make energy efficiency measures at no upfront cost) and the Green Investment Bank (which creates opportunities for stakeholders to engage with and stimulate the green economy) show the way forward for other countries. 91% global increase of small scale distribute generation
5. Electric car sales will grow The hybrid/electric car market is the subject of increasing interest from stakeholders ranging from governments, through vehicle and component manufacturers, to the investment community and end-users. The adoption of hybrid/electric cars across the top five European automotive markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) has been slow in terms of actual vehicles sold, across all five markets. Hybrid/electric cars represented less than 1% of total new car sales and made up less than 0.5% of the total car parc in 2009. Datamonitor predicts that the hybrid/electric car market will witness strong growth over the coming four years (France, 23%; Germany, 22%; Italy, 19%; Spain, 20%; the UK, 29%) which will increase slightly during the run-up to 2020. The COP17 climate change conference in Durban will feel the full force of the new Republican power bloc ” Hybrid/electric car registrations in the top five markets (2010f–14f)
Lear more… Here’s a selection of our analysis on renewable energy, sustainable technology investments, and consumer attitudes The COP17 climate change conference in Durban will feel the full force of the new Republican power bloc ” “ Renewable Energy in Europe: Investment Opportunities in Growth Markets Find out more in Research Store | Access on the Knowledge Center Renewable Energy in India Find out more in Research Store | Access on the Knowledge Center Renewable Energy in Australia Find out more in Research Store | Access on the Knowledge Center Renewable Energy in China Find out more in Research Store | Access on the Knowledge Center Renewable Energy in the US: Policy, Investment, Capacity, Growth and Outlook Find out more in Research Store | Access on the Knowledge Center 2011: Sustainability Trends to Watch Find out more in Research Store | Access on the Knowledge Center Hybrid and Electric Car Market in the Biggest European Automotive Markets - Trends, Consumer Insights, and Future Outlook Find out more in Research Store | Access on the Knowledge Center Sustainable Technology Investment Market Update – Energy Generation Find out more in Research Store | Access on the Knowledge Center Green Consumer Attitudes – Utilities Find out more in Research Store | Access on the Knowledge Center
Datamonitor Energy & Sustainability The COP17 climate change conference in Durban will feel the full force of the new Republican power bloc ” “ Datamonitor’s Energy & Sustainability team has established an unrivalled reputation in tracking and analyzing energy market dynamics and their impact on the oil and gas, and utilities sectors. With its diverse range of backgrounds in the energy, utilities and regulatory sectors, our team of professional analysts helps our clients to respond to and take advantage of changes in their business and regulatory environments. Through the use of extensive proprietary data, Datamonitor provides cutting edge, independent analysis of business drivers across a range of issues from the upstream oil and gas markets through to the retail parts of the energy value chain. If you wish to access a wide range of Energy and Sustainability research, analysis and insights or you would like to receive more information about our services, please contact us at: [email_address] | www.datamonitor.com +44 207 551 9437
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