CS-IT.ppt - Vision And Security Technology Laboratory ...


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  • CS-IT.ppt - Vision And Security Technology Laboratory ...

    1. 1. http://www.greatachievements.org/
    2. 2. CS and IT Terrance E. Boult El Pomar Professor of Innovation and Security Department of Computer Science University of Colorado at Colorado Springs Parts of this talk graciously provided by Prof. Ed Lazowska
    3. 3. Outline <ul><li>Why Study CS </li></ul><ul><li>CS Overview </li></ul><ul><li>Some of the Great Ideas of CS </li></ul><ul><li>CS/IT and the myth of offshoring </li></ul>
    4. 4. Computer Scientist Sub-specialties <ul><li>Computer Engineer (Firmware Engineer) </li></ul><ul><li>Computer System Analyst </li></ul><ul><li>Software Engineer </li></ul><ul><li>Network Engineer </li></ul><ul><li>Database Administrator </li></ul><ul><li>System Administrator </li></ul><ul><li>Software Developer/Programmer </li></ul><ul><li>Application Programmer/Developer </li></ul><ul><li>Game Developer </li></ul><ul><li>Web programmer </li></ul>
    5. 5. Why Study Computer Science? <ul><li>Variety of job titles </li></ul><ul><li>■ Software Engineer (Applications or System), System </li></ul><ul><li>Programmer, System Engineer, System Analyst/Programmer, </li></ul><ul><li>Database Administrator, Network Systems and Data </li></ul><ul><li>Communication Analyst, Network Programmer/Administrator, </li></ul><ul><li>Web Developer/Administrator, Computer Scientist, and </li></ul><ul><li>Information Technology Specialist. </li></ul><ul><li>A Bachelor's degree in computing is required for high-pay IT positions. </li></ul><ul><li>■ According to U.S Department of Labor Statistics and Predication, very good opportunities are expected for college graduates with at least a bachelor’s degree in computer science and with practical work experience. </li></ul>
    6. 6. Why Study Computer Science? <ul><li>Fast–growing IT jobs </li></ul><ul><li>■ According to the U.S Government Labor Department job statistics and predications, the professional IT workforce is projected to add over a million new jobs between 2004 and 2014, an increase of about 30 percent. </li></ul><ul><li>■ According to the U.S Government Labor Department job statistics and predications, software engineers are projected to be one of the fastest growing occupations over the period 2004-2014. </li></ul><ul><li>■ Money Magazine May 2006 : Software Engineer is the #1 best job and the forecasted 10-year job growth is 46.07%. </li></ul><ul><li>■ CNNMoney.COM quotes an ACM study as saying that “Despite all the publicity in the United States about jobs being lost to India and China, the size of the IT employment market in the United States today is higher than it was at the height of the dotcom boom.” </li></ul>
    7. 7. Why Study Computer Science? <ul><li>■ A CNN article ranks the 10 top-paying jobs (excluding medical doctors). 5 of which were jobs for which a computer science degree would be a great preparation. The average salary is between $61,250–$81,140 as follows: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Computer System Software Engineer - $81,140 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Biomedical Engineer - $70,520 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Physician Assistant - $69,250 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Computer Applications Software Engineer- $76,310 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Environmental Engineer - $67,620 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Computer System Analysis - $67,520 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Database Administrator - $61,950 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Physical Therapist - $61,560 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Network Systems and Data Communication Analyst - $61,250 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Hydrologist - $60,880 </li></ul></ul></ul>
    8. 8. 81%
    9. 9. Why Study Computer Science? <ul><li>Creativity </li></ul><ul><li>Intellectual Challenge </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Programming is extremely challenging </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CS applied to other fields is a different intellectual challenge. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Helping Others </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Produce artifacts which make people’s lives easier </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Flexibility </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Telecommuting, working at home, … </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Lifelong Learning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Computer scientists must master a moving target. </li></ul></ul>
    10. 10. <ul><li>Impact </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Advances in computing drive advances in all other fields </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Advances in computing power the economy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Not just through the growth of the computing industry – through Multi Factor Productivity Growth throughout the economy </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Advances in computing change the way we live, the way we work, the way we learn, the way we communicate </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Unbelievably cool intellectual opportunities </li></ul>Why computer science & engineering?
    11. 11. Exponential progress
    12. 12. Exponential Growth
    13. 13. Exponential progress
    14. 14. Exponential progress
    15. 15. Exponential progress
    16. 16. <ul><li>“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers” -- Thomas J. Watson, founder and Chairman of IBM, 1943 </li></ul>Exponential Growth makes many predictions look foolish
    17. 17. <ul><li>“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons” -- Popular Science , 1949 </li></ul>Makes many predictions look foolish
    18. 18. <ul><li>“ There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home” -- Ken Olsen, founder and President of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977 </li></ul>Makes many predictions look foolish
    19. 19. <ul><li>“640K ought to be enough for anybody” -- Bill Gates, founder, Chairman, and CEO of Microsoft, 1981 [disclaimed] </li></ul>Makes many predictions look foolish
    20. 20. <ul><li>“… the software industry is going to make more breakthroughs in these next 10 years than it's made in the last 30 … software is really going to transform not just what we think about as the computer industry, but the way that everything is done …” W. Gates CEO Microsoft </li></ul>CS and Intellectual opportunity
    21. 21. Intellectual opportunity Computer-enhanced driving Re-architecting the Internet Harnessing parallelism Transforming other fields of science and engineering A teacher for every learner Flattening the world Transforming Entertainment and art
    22. 22. Intellectual opportunity Transforming the nation’s defense Security/Biometrics Sensor Networks Medical Imaging Personalized Health care
    23. 23. Who are Computer Scientist? <ul><li>They are you and me… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Successful business owners </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Politician </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Home makers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Academicians </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>World-Class Athletes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Poets/Artist/Musicians </li></ul></ul>
    24. 24. Computer Science: What can I do with this major? <ul><li>Arts </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Film reproduction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Animation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Computer Enhanced Graphics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Art-based Games </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Business </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Model Forecasting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Process Improvements </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Information Technology (IT) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Business Infrastructure (Network/Communications) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Help Desk/Application Support </li></ul></ul>
    25. 25. Computer Science: What can I do with this major? <ul><li>Entrepreneurial </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Custom PC Engineer (gaming/media station/graphics workstations) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Equity Speculation (stock trader) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SOHO IT (small office/home office) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Software Developer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Web Developer </li></ul></ul>
    26. 26. Computer Science: What can I do with this major? <ul><li>Health Research </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Improved web-based support for trauma recovery </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Software for assessing and coping with Mental Impairment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Clinically relevant Compression for Improved teleradiology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Vascular Modeling for blood flow </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4D Heart modeling with SPAMM-MRI </li></ul></ul>
    27. 27. Computer Science: What can I do with this major? <ul><li>Security </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Network Intrusion/Denial of Service/Malacious Attacks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Biometrics (face recognition/iris scans/fingerprint) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Forensics (identification/cause of death/age-progression) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Telecommunications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Call Center </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mobile Devices/Instant Messaging </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>VoIP (Voice Over IP) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>File sharing (Lime Wire/Napster…) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>POD Casting/Video Streaming </li></ul></ul>
    28. 28. Outline <ul><li>Why Study CS </li></ul><ul><li>CS Overview </li></ul><ul><li>Some of the Great Ideas of CS </li></ul><ul><li>CS/IT and the myth of offshoring </li></ul>
    29. 29. Computing Systems <ul><li>Computer: A machine that is designed to perform operations that are specified with a set of instructions called a program. </li></ul><ul><li>Hardware: the computer equipment, such as the keyboard, the mouse, the terminal, the hard disk, and the printer. </li></ul><ul><li>Software: the programs that describe the steps that we want the program to perform. </li></ul>
    30. 30. Computer Hardware <ul><li>CPU </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Central Processing Unit </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Processor + ALU(Arithmetic logic unit) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Internal Memory </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Read-only Memory(ROM) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Random-access Memory(RAM) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>External Memory </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hard-disk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Removable Media (Floppy/DVD/Flash Stick) </li></ul></ul>
    31. 31. Internal organization of a computer
    32. 32. Types of computer <ul><li>Personal Computer(PCs) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>small inexpensive computers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>commonly used in offices, homes, and laboratories </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>microcomputer </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Workstation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>minicomputer or mainframe computer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>small enough to fit on a desktop </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Super computer </li></ul><ul><ul><li>the fastest computer </li></ul></ul>
    34. 34. <ul><li>Operating System </li></ul><ul><ul><li>provides an interface between the user and the hardware </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>in which the user can select and execute the application software </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Contains drivers/interface for devices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>contains many utilities to perform functions such as printing files, copying files and listing files. </li></ul></ul>
    35. 35. Software tools <ul><li>word processor (Microsoft word, 한글 ) </li></ul><ul><li>spread sheet (Lotus 1-2-3, Excel…) </li></ul><ul><li>database management system (MySQL, Oracle, dBase IV, Paradox,…) </li></ul><ul><li>CAD package (AutoCAD, AutoSketch, CADKEY,…) </li></ul><ul><li>mathematical computation tools and graphic tools (MATLAB, Mathmatica, MATHCAD, Maple) </li></ul><ul><li>Graphics/Image Tools (Paint, Photoshop, Gimp) </li></ul>
    36. 36. Executing a Computer Program <ul><li>Compiling </li></ul><ul><ul><li>source program </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>object program </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Linking and Loading </li></ul><ul><li>Executing </li></ul><ul><li>Debugging </li></ul>
    37. 37. <ul><li>Compiling: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Translate high-level language into machine language </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>source program : the original program written by high-level language such as C++ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>object program: the machine language version of source program </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Linking and loading </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Linking: link the other necessary machine language statements to the object program </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Loading: load the program into memory </li></ul></ul>
    38. 38. <ul><li>Debugging </li></ul><ul><ul><li>a process to correct errors(often called bugs ) in a program </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>compile-time error: syntactic errors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>run-time error: logic errors </li></ul></ul>
    39. 39. Software Life-Cycle Phases (assuming problem is already identified) <ul><li>Life Cycle Percent of Effort </li></ul><ul><li>Definition 3 </li></ul><ul><li>Specification 15 </li></ul><ul><li>Coding and modular testing 14 </li></ul><ul><li>Integration and testing 8 </li></ul><ul><li>Maintenance 60 </li></ul>
    40. 40. Outline <ul><li>Why Study CS </li></ul><ul><li>CS Overview </li></ul><ul><li>Some of the Great Ideas of CS </li></ul><ul><li>CS/IT and the myth of offshoring </li></ul>
    41. 41. Basic “CS” building Blocks <ul><li>Computer Organization and the Binary Numbers </li></ul><ul><li>Stored/structured Programs </li></ul><ul><li>Symbolic Algorithm Design, e.g. text programming </li></ul><ul><li>Numeric Algorithm Design, E.g. Floating Point </li></ul><ul><li>Algorithm Complexity (running time) </li></ul><ul><li>Computability and Non-computability </li></ul><ul><li>Software Engineering: Large Scale programming </li></ul><ul><li>Computational Modeling of complex phenomenon </li></ul>
    42. 42. Important “CS” Paradigms <ul><ul><li>Simulation (and gaming) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Machine Translation (compilers/interpreters) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Virtual Environments for Computing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Computer Communications </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Object-Oriented </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Relation Databases </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Services Oriented Computing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Parallel Computation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Artificial Intelligence </li></ul></ul>
    43. 43. Great Ideas of CS and IT <ul><li>Required reading from </li></ul><ul><li>http://www. cs . gmu . edu / cne / itcore / </li></ul><ul><li>For those seeking more depth check out Great Ideas in Computer Science: A Gentle Introduction. 2nd Edition by Alan W. Biermann </li></ul>
    44. 44. The Internet <ul><li>Key Questions: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How to send a message to someone? How to send a book or document? How to find the address of a person or object? How to guarantee delivery when network connections are unreliable? How to deliver mail or objects to addresses over unpredictable routes? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Key CS Ideas: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Survivable networks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>IP Networks: TCP/IP and UDP/IP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Distributed Naming and Domain Name Schema </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hyperlinks and the Web </li></ul></ul>
    45. 45. Interfaces <ul><li>Questions: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How do I tell the computer what to do? How does the computer translate my command into action? How does the computer let me manipulate facsimiles of objects? How do we show/manipulate 3D objects in the computer? How do we make it so different programs can reuse the same software? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Key Ideas: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Command sets and shells </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Windows, icons, menus, mouse, pointers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3D “rendering pipelines”, shaders </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Application Programmer Interfaces(API) and software Libraries </li></ul></ul>
    46. 46. Information Security <ul><li>Questions: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How to prevent unwanted people from accessing my files? How to prevent sensitive information from flowing out of my system? How to prevent someone from sabotaging my system? My information? How to converse in secret? How to sign an electronic document? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Key Ideas: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Access control </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Flow control </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>User authentication </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Signed and secret communication </li></ul></ul>
    47. 47. Virtual/Abstract Machines <ul><li>Questions: How does the computer set a command program into execution? How can a computer be divided into smaller identical computers (orcopies of the original computer)? How can programs like Java applets be universally portable? </li></ul><ul><li>Key Ideas: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>IBM VM model </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Java VM model </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Unix VM model </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Layers model </li></ul></ul>
    48. 48. Virtual Memories <ul><li>Questions: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How does the computer incorporate many storage media into a single memory system? How to organize memory so that I don't have to reprogram anything if I add or remove storage devices? How to keep track of objects so they can be addressed at high speed regardless of location? How to speed up a computation when memory is too small to hold everything? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Key Ideas: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Two-level (Multi-level) address mappings </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The cache principle </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Name spaces for just-in-time sharing </li></ul></ul>
    49. 49. Concurrent Processes <ul><li>Questions: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How to prevent two processes from entering a race that makes their combined result unpredictable? How to decide reliably which of two events has occurred first when only one event can be processed at a time? How to ensure that sharable memory objects are used by just one process at a time? How to prevent a group of processes from being halted by a deadlock? How to simulate many processes with a computer having only one computing engine? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Key Ideas: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Arbiters, Critical sections, Deadlock detectors, Semaphores </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Time sharing </li></ul></ul>
    50. 50. <ul><li>online communities </li></ul><ul><li>media-centric </li></ul><ul><li>web-based interaction </li></ul><ul><li>small cognitive overhead </li></ul><ul><li>collaborative tagging, folksonomies </li></ul><ul><li>online collaborative gaming </li></ul><ul><li>collaborative filtering </li></ul><ul><li>recommendation/trust networks </li></ul>Social Computing
    51. 51. CS/IT reshapes business Bridging human and computational processes Human activities (agreed norms) Business processes (organisations, markets, services, products) Computational processes Value Creation Humanities Social sciences Economics Computer science Complex Systems view Research focus IT drives a novel set of transformations: What consequences for society and business?
    52. 52. Towards “Service Science” Humanities Social sciences Economics Computer science Data + Models -> Science of Services? Agent-based/ behavioural economics AI Interfaces Formal models Services Services in the large: How to manage millions of online services?
    53. 53. Outline <ul><li>Why Study CS </li></ul><ul><li>Some of the Great Ideas of CS </li></ul><ul><li>CS/IT and the myth of offshoring </li></ul>
    54. 54. IT is Evolved from a Support Tool into a Source of Competitive Advantage... Source of differentiation and advantage Support core business processes Support back office Copyright © The Boston Consulting Group 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's Airlines Retailing Automotive Health Care Financial Services 2010's IT evolution over time IT role IT needs to be linked with business strategy to generate value for the business Copyright © The Boston Consulting Group Development Exhausted Or New Future Push To Be Expected? (1)
    55. 55. Outsourcing in Retrospect <ul><li>Outsourcing IT has been used by organizations for a long time </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ADP (1949) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CSC (1959) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>EDS (1963) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Drivers – Cost effectiveness, Avoid buying expensive machines, Avoidance of building in-house IT Skills, Access to special skills and functional capabilities </li></ul>
    56. 56. <ul><li>Outsourcing generally has two key objectives for an organization: </li></ul><ul><li>Cost Savings – these are achieved either through lower labor costs within the outsourced organization; </li></ul><ul><li>Quality/Efficiency Gains – by outsourcing to a company which specializes in a particular function, there will be process improvements and a greater level of quality and service by using a specialized workforce when compared to in-house resources. </li></ul><ul><li>There are currently three main recognized models of outsourcing; </li></ul><ul><li>Onshore – the outsourcer will be located in the same country as the client and may deploy some resources onsite at the client; </li></ul><ul><li>Offshore – uses an offshore based provider (e.g. India, Sri Lanka, Mexico, South Africa, etc.) to take full advantage of reduced labor costs and large pools of skilled resources. Management and IP can be tricky. </li></ul><ul><li>Nearshore – similar to offshoring but utilizes organization s closer to home e.g. Eastern Europe for UK firms, Canada/Mexico for US. The proximity of the outsourced organization balances the fact this is likely to cost more than offshoring; </li></ul>Methods of Outsourcing Outsourcing traditionally involves the transfer of non-core competencies to an organization which specialises in the provision of that service.
    57. 57. <ul><li>Key Advantages: </li></ul><ul><li>Expert Services – companies are able to outsource some of their non-core competencies to an organization who specialises in the provision of those services. This therefore ensures the right level of skilled resources to carry out the processing; </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on Core Competencies – the client is free to focus on their key business areas that affect their bottom line without having to be concerned about the non-core competencies; </li></ul><ul><li>Business Environment – working within a business environment and support function that everyone is comfortable with. </li></ul>Onshore Outsourcing Onshore Outsourcing does not tend to generate large reductions in labour costs and so the key driver tends to be to benefit from the expertise of the third party provider.
    58. 58. <ul><li>Key Disadvantages; </li></ul><ul><li>Reliance on Supplier – in order to realize any of the benefits of this type of arrangement the supplier must be a proven expert in the field and have expert resources to support the client. Due to the lower cost savings the client will be looking for large scale process/quality improvements; </li></ul><ul><li>IT Requirements – to leverage the benefits it is likely to be necessary for the client to have a common IT infrastructure across all operations, which may require some large scale IT investment as part of the initiative; </li></ul><ul><li>Minimized Cost Savings - the cost savings of this type of model are likely to be minimal. </li></ul>Onshore Outsourcing
    59. 59. <ul><li>Key Advantages: </li></ul><ul><li>Cost Savings – due to lower wage costs and the economic structure of many offshore locations, organization s tend to be able to make much greater cost savings by outsourcing processes to an offshore location; </li></ul><ul><li>Time Zone Benefits – the different time zones allow companies who have outsourced offshore to potentially benefit from a 24-7 operation and to have offshore processing done outside of the client’s standard hours; </li></ul><ul><li>Availability of Skilled Resources – offshore countries tend to have large scale skilled resource pools making it simple for clients to scale up their operations. </li></ul>Offshore Outsourcing The Offshore model offers the greatest benefits to clients in terms of cost savings, availability of skilled resources and time zone advantages
    60. 60. <ul><li>Key Disadvantages; </li></ul><ul><li>Data and IT Security – clients have to be aware of potential risks with client data and confidentiality and this will often drive the set up of the IT infrastructure and may restrict some processes from migrating offshore; </li></ul><ul><li>Geopolitical Risks – companies need to assess the stability of the Country when considering an offshoring initiative as this could impact their agreements with suppliers; </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of Control – some companies perceive a lack of control from having their outsourced operations so far away. </li></ul><ul><li>Time-zone management issues: difficulty managing and keeping in sync shared information/resources across non-overlapping “shifts” </li></ul>Offshore Outsourcing The Offshore model offers the greatest risks to clients in terms of IP, Security, lack of control and management effort needed .
    61. 61. International Outsourcing: An Emotional Debate &quot;What's going on with this offshoring of American jobs to India and China is nothing but terrorism – economic terrorism.“ Frank LaGrotta , Pennsylvania House of Representatives, March 2004 “ The savings produced through worldwide sourcing are invested in new products and services, in new market expansion, and, most importantly, in creating new jobs and increasing real wages for American workers.” Harris N. Miller, President, ITAA, March 2004
    62. 62. US Real GDP per Worker Grew 254%: More Goods & Services or Less Employment? Major concern by early 1960s that “automated factories” would create vast production worker unemployment. From Dwight Jaffee’s talk at Understanding Global Outsourcing , Conf. 2004
    63. 63. Last 55 Years: Stable Unemployment Rate and Rising Labor Force Participation Displaced workers have left no trace in terms of a rising unemployment rate or a falling labor participation rate. From Dwight Jaffee’s talk at Understanding Global Outsourcing , Conf. 2004
    64. 64. The Observational Equivalence of Technological Change and Offshoring <ul><li>Although the US experience of last 55 years is dominated by technological change, not offshoring, they are observationally equivalent. </li></ul><ul><li>Ingram/Krugman parable tells of US entrepreneur creating consumer goods from wheat and lumber. Moral: same result with technology or offshoring. </li></ul><ul><li>Robert Feenstra demonstrates that technological change and imported intermediate imports have identical effects in raising labor productivity. </li></ul>From Dwight Jaffee’s talk at Understanding Global Outsourcing , Conf. 2004
    65. 65. Service Sector Jobs Lost to Offshoring <ul><li>Bardhan, Jaffee, & Kroll [2003] demonstrate that 6 service jobs were created for every production job lost in US computer manufacturing. But are we now losing these service jobs? </li></ul><ul><li>Service offshoring uses occupations , not industries . Ex: call center operators, software developers, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Core features of jobs “at risk” to offshoring: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Face to face contact not required. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Communication based on telephone or broadband. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scripted or semi-automated data related services. </li></ul></ul>From Dwight Jaffee’s talk at Understanding Global Outsourcing , Conf. 2004
    66. 66. No Empirical Effects (yet) on Wages in “At-Risk” Occupations There is no sign (yet) that offshoring is creating falling wages (either absolute or relative) in “at-risk” occupations From Dwight Jaffee’s talk at Understanding Global Outsourcing , Conf. 2004
    67. 67. 81%
    68. 68. Outsourcing can provide fair globalization between countries Source : IMF Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook 2004. Imports and Exports of Computer and Information Services and Other Business Services, 1986-2003 (in billion current US$)
    69. 69. Jobs Lost to Technological Change or Offshoring: Conclusions <ul><li>Job losses are essential response to technological change (Schumpeter’s “creative destruction”) and to offshoring (Rodrik’s “no pain, no gain”). </li></ul><ul><li>US labor markets reveal remarkable flexibility in creating new jobs in response to jobs lost to the forces of technological change and offshoring. </li></ul>From Dwight Jaffee’s talk at Understanding Global Outsourcing , Conf. 2004
    70. 70. Outsourcing & national policy responses <ul><li>Skill-bias makes transition of workers from one job to another difficult. </li></ul><ul><li>Consequences of outsourcing similar to those of technical change. </li></ul><ul><li>No easy solution available, but a number of tools: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Skills upgrading crucial as a long-term strategy; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>role for active labour market policies, with their limitations (Auer et al. 2004); </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>social protection may be necessary to make outsourcing politically viable. </li></ul></ul>Cushion the labour market effects and re-employ workers who lost their jobs: From “International Outsourcing: Trends and Policy Issues” Malte Lübker Policy Integration Department, ILO, 2005
    71. 71. Off shoring and IT’s future <ul><li>Off shoring has benefits for receiving countries, but can also bring value gains to sending countries. </li></ul><ul><li>We should not call for an end of outsourcing, try to stop, nor endorse protectionism. </li></ul><ul><li>We should concentrate on making outsourcing compatible with goals of fair globalization, decent work and improving value for everyone. </li></ul><ul><li>We need to educate people to survive the transitions. Learn to adapt or be obsolete. </li></ul><ul><li>We should fight only by adding more value, in other ways, than the labor savings generates. </li></ul>
    72. 72. Innovation as the value driver <ul><li>&quot;Innovation generates the productivity that economists estimate has accounted for half of U.S. GDP growth over the past 50 years. ... </li></ul><ul><li>It’s not only about offering new products and services, but also improving them and making them more affordable.&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>From Innovate America </li></ul>
    73. 73. Education needs for 2020 <ul><li>The National Academy of Engineering (NAE) report Educating the Engineer of 2020 concludes: </li></ul><ul><li>“ If the United States is to maintain its economic leadership and be able to sustain its share of high technology jobs, it must prepare for this wave of change. While there is no consensus at this stage, it is agreed that innovation is the key and engineering is essential to this task; but engineering will only contribute to success if it is able to continue to adapt to new trends and provide education to the next generation of students so as to arm them with the tools needed for the world as it will be, not as it is today.” </li></ul>
    74. 74. Innovation importance growing <ul><li>A 2006 survey by the Business Roundtable found: </li></ul><ul><li>       33% of opinion leaders and 18% of voters said improving U.S. science and technology capabilities to increase U.S. innovation and competitiveness is our country’s single most important objective ; </li></ul><ul><li>       62% of both groups said that addressing this problem is equally important to other challenges such as national security, transportation, health care, energy and the legal system; </li></ul><ul><li>        76% of opinion leaders and 51% of American voters rank a focus on education as the most important way to solve the problem; </li></ul>
    75. 75. But there is a problem <ul><li>Only 5% of the survey parents said they would try to persuade their child toward careers in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics), while 65% said they would allow the child to pursue whatever career path he/she prefers and 27% said they would encourage the child to pursue a STEM career but balance it with the child’s preference. </li></ul><ul><li>In a 2003 national survey commissioned by GE, only 9% of college students polled indicated that they felt the United States is doing enough to foster innovation among young people . </li></ul>
    76. 76. Production of Engineers (1999) - National Science Foundation 14.85% 82,409 Russia 19.43% 103,440 Japan 15.44% 145,000 India 22.09% 45,145 South Korea 5.08% 60,914 US 44.30% 195,354 China Percent of Grads - Eng. BS Engineers + CS Country
    77. 77. Five years later . . . . <ul><li>China graduated 650,000 engineers in 2005. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2,000 considered to be “world-class” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The half considered equivalent to average US graduates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Half are engineers in “name” (e.g. auto mechanical engineer) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Prediction – Asia will have 90% of all practicing engineers by 2010. </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>- Asia Section, The Economist , 2004, p. 35 </li></ul></ul></ul>
    78. 78. Opposite Trend Occurring in US <ul><li>2004 Reports by ASEE and NAE concluded that: </li></ul><ul><li>“ US engineers lead the world in innovation. This great national resource is at serious risk because America has an engineering deficit .” </li></ul><ul><li>While U.S. college graduation rates increased by 26% from 1985 to 2000, graduation rates for engineers decreased by 23 percent during the same period.  </li></ul><ul><li>88% of K-12 teachers believe that engineering is important for understanding the world around us while only 30% of teachers feel that their students could succeed as engineers. </li></ul>Reference: &quot;Engineering in the K-12 Classroom: An Analysis of Current Practices and Guidelines for the Future&quot; (http://www.engineeringk12.org)
    79. 79. U.S. Engineering Enrollment by Level and by Year Source: Science & Engineering Indicators – 2002 Graduate Downward Trend Since 1993 Downward Trend Since 1983 Undergraduate Graduate
    80. 80. Source: Science & Engineering Indicators – 2002 Bachelor Degrees Earned in S&E Fields
    81. 81. U.S. University Trends in Defense-Related S&E Graduate Student Enrollment (1994-2001) Science Disciplines Aliens with Temporary Visas U.S. Citizens + Permanent Resident Aliens U.S. Citizen + Perm 8 Yr. Delta -27.2% -9.9% -25.3% +14.1% Physics Chemistry Math/Applied Computer Sci. Physics Chemistry Math/Applied Computer Sciences 1994 / 2001 Physics Chemistry Math/Applied Computer Sci. Table I-2 *Source: National Science Foundation – Graduate Students and Post Doctorates in Science and Engineering: Fall 2001
    82. 82. U.S. University Trends in Defense-Related S&E Graduate Student Enrollment (1994-2001) Engineering Disciplines U.S. Citizens + Perm. Resident Aliens U.S. Citizen + Perm 8 Yr. Delta Aliens with Temporary Visas -26.2% -18.9% -21.7% -33.0% -32.1% -29.7% -24.7% -49.1% Aerospace Chemical Electrical Engineering Sciences Industrial/ Mfg. Mechanical Metallurgy/ Materials Nuclear Aerospace Chemical Electrical Engineering Sciences Industrial/ Mfg. Mechanical Metallurgy/ Materials Nuclear Table III *Source: National Science Foundation – Graduate Students and Post Doctorates in Science and Engineering: Fall 2001 Aerospace Chemical Electrical Engineering Science Industrial/Manufacturing Mechanical Metallurgical/Materials Nuclear 1994 / 2001
    83. 83. Access, VPN and RATS <ul><li>Ecollege http://uccsonline.net </li></ul><ul><li>The user ID is. your UCCS student number and the default password is UCCS </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.uccs.edu/~helpdesk </li></ul><ul><li>http://it.eas.uccs.edu/helpsheets.htm </li></ul>