Sa Major Projects Conference Final
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  • 1. Sustainability and its Effects on the Future of Major Projects South Australian Major Projects Conference 09 Darren Bilsborough, Director of Sustainability, PB-AP Adjunct Professor of Sustainability, Curtin University
  • 2. Sustainable Infrastructure Why? What’s the Problem Climate Change Resource Depletion (including Water) Health and Well Being (future liabilities) New ways Needed – A Change in Direction Sustainable Energy Sustainable Buildings Sustainable Transport
  • 3. Sustainable Infrastructure Why? What’s the Problem Climate Change Resource Depletion (including Water) Health and Well Being (future liabilities) New ways Needed – A Change in Direction Sustainable Energy Sustainable Buildings Sustainable Transport
  • 4. 7 Major Themes of Infrastructure Australia 1 A national broadband network:: developing a more extensive, globally competitive broadband system; 2. Creation of a true national energy market: more extensive national energy grids to enable greater exibility and competition in the nation’s electricity and gas systems, whilst creating opportunities for the development of renewable energy sources; 3. Competitive international gateways: developing more effective ports and associated land transport systems to more efficiently cope with imports and exports; 4. A national rail freight network: development of our rail networks so that more freight can be moved by rail; 5. Adaptable and secure water supplies: more adaptable and resilient water systems to cope with climate change; 6. Transforming our cities: increasing public transport capacity in our cities and making better use of existing transport infrastructure; and 7. Providing essential indigenous services: improved services for Indigenous communities.
  • 5. PB Challenges for Sustainable Infrastructure 1. The redesign of (existing or renewal of) infrastructure in light of global climate change – specifically looking at how we design future infrastructure to be either “carbon neutral” or with a significantly reduced carbon footprint, and how should our infrastructure be designed to take into account future climatic predictions?
  • 6. Mitigation Strategies - Mainly Energy Nuclear Fission CO2 Capture and Storage Energy Efficiency and 14 BtC/y Conservation Stabilization Fuel Switching Forests & Soils Triangle 7 BtC/y 2005 2055 Renewable Electricity and Fuels
  • 7. Climate Change and the Energy Sector
  • 8. A Possible Future Scenario – The Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change
  • 9. More Renewables? Infrastructure Australia
  • 10. The Elephant in the Room
  • 11. Climate Change Adaptation Adaptation Strategies in response to Changing Climatic and Environmental Conditions a) Risk minimisation which takes into account impacts associated with rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, rising sea levels and changing storm frequency, type and intensity. b) Response to changes in land use/value and planning. c) Prepare communities to adapt to climate change including: impacts of population increases (or changes) to transportation infrastructure such needs bushfire intensity and frequency
  • 12. PB Challenges for Sustainable Infrastructure 1. The redesign of (existing or renewal of) infrastructure in light of global climate change – specifically looking at how we design future infrastructure to be either “carbon neutral” or with a significantly reduced carbon footprint, and how should our infrastructure be designed to take into account future climatic predictions? 2. Economic, social and environmental modelling of land use and transportation – the modelling could be used for assessment of policies on emissions, energy use and infrastructure costs. For example life-cycle analysis, ecological footprinting, benefit-cost analysis.
  • 13. Peak Oil
  • 14. Oil Production World Summary • Energy Watch Group forecasts oil production will fall 50% by 2030, to be only 1/3rd of world demand Source: Energywatch (2007)
  • 15. How Much Time Have We Got? • Some future scenarios have petrol prices at up to $8/litre in Australia. Even modest scenarios foresee $2 a litre within a few years • Surveys by Budget Direct suggest 30% of motorists in Australian cities will stop using their car to commute if petrol reaches $1.75 a litre • Watch the arctic this September – the canary in the mine. We may only be three-four years from an ice free arctic in summer
  • 16. Destiny of all life lies within technology
  • 17. Degree of Sprawl 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 Houston Atlanta Dallas-Fort Worth Miami Detroit Minneapolis-St. Paul Phoenix Philadelphia Kansas City Tampa St. Louis Cleveland Pittsburgh Los Angeles Denver Seattle Degree of Sprawl Portland Cincinnati Milwaukee San Diego Washington, DC Boston San Francisco Chicago Baltimore Transportation as Percent of Expenditures New York Honolulu 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Transportation as Percent of Expenditures Sprawling Places Are More Expensive
  • 18. PB-CUSP Alliance Research Costs to government $86 million (or approximately $80,000 per block) – or the cost to provide power, water, sewerage, schools, hospitals and local government services for fringe developments. Road infrastructure is the most significant cost. Cost to people $250 million in transport costs over 50 years – people in fringe developments drive more frequently and own more cars $ 4.23 million in health costs – people in fringe developments have higher risk of obesity related to lower levels of physical activity for people. Cost to the planet 4,400 tons of greenhouse gas is saved for 1,000 urban dwellings, which is roughly equal to the amount emitted from 200 homes – an estimated dollar value of approximately $19.32 million.
  • 19. What is Sustainable Transport? • Rail and Public Transport • Bicycling etc • Green cars • Infrastructure Priorities and Configurations to Support the Various Modal Options
  • 20. Public transport Trend back to public transport in US PT growing faster in the US than car traffic since 1995 Light rail up 10%, heavy rail up 5% in year to March. Car use down 4% Big shifts to PT in Australia Patronage on Melbourne Trains up 23% in last 3 years Buses in Brisbane up 30% in last few years Trains in Perth up 40% in last year Light Rail in Adelaide up 30% in last year
  • 21. Vehicle Options – Green Cars/Bikes low fuel consumption electric cars electric-assist bike electric motor-scooter electric gopher
  • 22. The Humble Bicycle
  • 23. Providing Specific Space for Cyclists is Catching On..
  • 24. The Road of the Future? What will it look like? How will its construction be different to account for climate change? i.e., more prolonged higher temperatures and extreme weather events What type of supporting infrastructure will be required? i.e., electricity?
  • 25. The Road of the Future? What will it look like? How will its construction be different to account for climate change? i.e., more prolonged higher temperatures and extreme weather events What type of supporting infrastructure will be required? i.e., electricity? How many different modes of transportation should it accommodate and safely? i.e., rail or light rail, physical barriers for pedestrians or cyclists
  • 26. PB Challenges for Sustainable Infrastructure 1. The redesign of (existing or renewal of) infrastructure in light of global climate change – specifically looking at how we design future infrastructure to be either “carbon neutral” or with a significantly reduced carbon footprint, and how should our infrastructure be designed to take into account future climatic predictions? 2. Economic, social and environmental modelling of land use and transportation – the modelling could be used for assessment of policies on emissions, energy use and infrastructure costs. For example life-cycle analysis, ecological footprinting, benefit-cost analysis. 3. Sustainable materials selection – looking at the quality, durability, resource efficiency and energy conservation (both embedded and operational) of project materials.
  • 27. Rating Tools
  • 28. PB Challenges for Sustainable Infrastructure 4. The protection of existing infrastructure from environmental degradation - for example the preservation, renewal, and longevity extension of materials and the relevance and applicability of systems. 5. Moving to Zero Waste environments – for example looking at cradle to cradle design solutions, recycling and reuse. 6. The proper economic evaluation of social infrastructure elements in society – including environmental, and physical and mental health benefits.
  • 29. Future Health Liability
  • 30. PB Challenges for Sustainable Infrastructure 4. The protection of existing infrastructure from environmental degradation - for example the preservation, renewal, and longevity extension of materials and the relevance and applicability of systems. 5. Moving to Zero Waste environments – for example looking at cradle to cradle design solutions, recycling and reuse. 6. The proper economic evaluation of social infrastructure elements in society – including environmental, and physical and mental health benefits. 7. The remediation of damaged environments – specifically focusing on damaged soils and water supplies, and the restitution of food production and capacity. 8. Revitalisation and restitution of ecology – the revitalisation of our ecological systems, and the restitution of ecological biodiversity.
  • 31. Biodiverse Cities
  • 32. Edible Cities Mole Hill Vancouver
  • 33. If your looking for a big opportunity look for a big problem”ANON
  • 34. Where do Australian emissions come from? Gases escaping 3% Garbage tips (during mining, from pipes) 6% 2% Industrial processes Transport 14% 17% Agriculture (vehicles) (mostly ex-animals) 10% Land use change and 48% forestry (clearing, etc) Stationary energy (power plants, etc) AGO, figures for 1999
  • 35. Where do Australian emissions come from? 62% of all emissions Transport from Transport and (vehicles) Energy Stationary energy (power plants, etc) AGO, figures for 1999
  • 36. EVs and Smart Grids Courtesy of EPRI
  • 37. EV’s and The Grid Enabling Renewables Grid mix without EVs Grid mix with EVs Short & Denholm (2006) “A Preliminary Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Doubling of installed wind capacity. Vehicles on Wind Energy Markets”
  • 38. EVs and Smart Grids • Enormous demand for smart-grid technologies to support EV networks and other distributed energy technologies • $11B in Obama stimulus package for smart grids, $100M in 2009 Australian Federal Budget • Emerging business opportunities for EV “aggregators” Project Better Place Coulomb Technologies
  • 39. EVs and Renewable Communities EVs in Toyota’s Dream House, Japan MASDAR City, United Arab Emirates
  • 40. Conclusions • Climate Change and Peak Oil have arrived • We have to make major adaptations over the next 10-20 years • We need to start immediately • Failure to act risks economic and social turmoil • The solutions are not rocket science but they do need leadership and bipartisan support
  • 41. Sustainability and its Effects on the Future of Major Projects Discussion Q&A