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Planned protests in Pakistan likely to be violent despite government attempts to break coalition

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  • 1. Planned protests in Pakistan likely to be violent despite government attempts to break up opposition coalition By Omar Hamid, Head of Asia Analysis, IHS Country Risk 14 August 2014 Key Points:  Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on 12 August made a television address in which he offered conciliatory measures to opposition groups that are calling for his resignation.  Specifically, Sharif announced the formation of a judicial commission that will look into allegations of fraud in the 2013 election. Until now, this has been the main reason for protest calls by opposition leader Imran Khan.  Sharif also said that the government had no issue with peaceful protests, but would not allow violent elements to hold the country hostage.  Sharif was alluding to the supporters of religious leader Tahir-ul-Qadri, who has announced his backing for Khan's "million-man march" to Islamabad today (14 August), and who had, according to local media sources, told his supporters to attack police officers if they attempted to stop them from progressing to Islamabad.  Qadri's supporters have been fighting with police in Lahore over the past several days. Risk Implications: Khan's refusal of Sharif's offer will raise risks of civil unrest in Islamabad and other districts of the Punjab province during the next five days. The government is attempting to divide the opposition, taking a softer approach in dealing with Khan, whom they consider to be a genuine political force (Khan's Tehrik-e-Insaf party has the third-highest number of seats in parliament and polled the second-largest number of votes in the 2013 election). At the same time, the government is taking a harder line with Qadri, who is perceived as having no genuine political support. IHS sources and media outlets in Pakistan have alleged that Qadri's call for the overthrow of the current system is being covertly encouraged by the army to exert pressure on Sharif. In order to prevent the march, the government has deployed large numbers of police and blocked entry and exit points to Islamabad and other districts en route to the capital, such as Chakwal, Gujranwala, Gujrat, and Jhelum. However, it is likely that Qadri's supporters, who tend to be more militant than Khan's, will try to cause blockades and trigger fighting with the police. Disruptions to traffic and all cargo will be severe on the M1 motorway and the Grand Trunk Road, the principal routes to Islamabad, while opposition activists who when they reach the capital will attempt to besiege government buildings, such as parliament, the Prime Minister's House, and the Federal Secretariat.
  • 2. If you prefer not to receive email messages from IHS, please email Danny.Cheung@ihs.com. To read our privacy policy, click here. Danny Cheung Asia Pacific Director Corporate Communications 8 Marina View #12-01 | Asia Square Tower 1 | Singapore Phone: +65 6439 6192 | Mobile: +65 9171 3200 Danny.Cheung@ihs.com This email message is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and may contain confidential and privileged information. Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure or distribution is prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by reply e-mail and destroy all copies of the original message. Thank you.  Please consider the environment before printing this e-mail.