Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS, issues his research note on the
economic impact of the conflict in Zamboa...
protracted period, or if the conflict widens, this could also seriously
undermine Mindanao’s efforts to attract new invest...
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Economic impact of conflict in Zamboanga City, Philippines

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Transcript of "Economic impact of conflict in Zamboanga City, Philippines"

  1. 1. Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS, issues his research note on the economic impact of the conflict in Zamboanga city in the Philippines. Rajiv may be reached on email at Rajiv.Biswas@ihs.com for additional comment or if you have questions. -0- IHS Economic Analysis: Economic Impact of Conflict in Zamboanga City in the Philippines “The continuing fighting in Zamboanga City between government forces and rebels from the Moro National Liberation Front has resulted in the shutdown of commercial activity in Zamboanga City with large numbers of refugees fleeing from the city. The Philippines Port Authority has been forced to suspend operations at Zamboanga City Baseport, which is the key port for passenger and cargo traffic into the region. The port handles around 2.4 million passengers and 1.7 million tons of cargo each year. The city is the main centre for the Philippines sardine industry accounting for 85% of national sardine production, and six canneries have been forced to shut operations due to the ongoing violence.” “The Zamboanga peninsula accounts for 2.1% of the Philippines GDP, so the overall impact of the violence on the national GDP growth rate will be relatively small. However the escalation in violence could be very damaging to the overall business and investment climate of the Mindanao regional economy, which accounted for 15% of Philippines GDP in 2012. If the violence in Zamboanga peninsula continues for a
  2. 2. protracted period, or if the conflict widens, this could also seriously undermine Mindanao’s efforts to attract new investment into tourism, mining and agriculture.” “Since 2000, a significant proportion of the population of Mindanao have suffered periods of displacement due to the impact of the insurgency, which has resulted in a heavy economic toll on the population of the region as well as damaging its economic development potential. With global investor interest in the Philippines having increased significantly in the last two years due to improving macroeconomic fundamentals, rapid economic growth and the Philippines’ newly gained investment grade credit rating from ratings agencies, the impact of the conflict in Zamboanga City is likely to result investors switching their investment plans away from Mindanao towards other economic regions of the Philippines with a more stable political climate.” Rajiv Biswas Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS

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