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140408 ihs analysis of social media converstations in indonesia elections, v f

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  • 1. News Release News Media Contact: Danny Cheung IHS Press Desk +65 9171 3200 +65 6439 6192 danny.cheung@ihs.com press@ihs.com IHS Sentiment Analysis of Social Media Conversations in February and March 2014 Indicate Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo as the Clear Front- Runner for Indonesia’s July Presidential Elections Online popularity of Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo has given the PDI-P a considerable boost to the 9 April legislative vote with the PDI-P now the clear favourite to win the legislative polls. SINGAPORE, Asia Pacific (09 April 2014) – Governor of Jakarta Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo is by far the most popular online candidate, securing an 87% online share of the vote, with the leader of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Partai Gerakan Indonesia Raya: Gerindra), Prabowo Subianto, a distant second, according to the latest IHS (NYSE: IHS) analysis on social media content in Indonesia’s parliamentary and presidential elections. IHS analysis of social media conversations also indicate that corruption is likely to be the most important issue in the coming elections, where a large majority of online users want to see a president who is "transparent, clean, and honest". Jokowi’s 87% online share of voice outstrips all other competitors, with Prabowo Subianto from the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Partai Gerakan Indonesia Raya: Gerindra) holding a distant second place at 6% (see Table 1 below). A breakdown of online influencers by medium indicates that Jokowi currently dominates the key online platforms in the country. To further understand Jokowi's popularity, IHS has analyzed the breakdown of the influence on their share of voice by sources (see Table 2 below). “Jokowi's social media influence and presence has been bolstered by the fact that he has been getting a large amount of attention from local news outlets and social media users as a result of his popularity as the governor of Jakarta,” says Romen Bose, Head of Social Media & Intelligence for IHS Economics.
  • 2. “Given that Jakarta is the most wired city in the country, social media users in the capital continually refer to Jokowi in their posts, with the vast majority of these conversations being positive.” Table 1: Jokowi’s share of voice outstrips all other competitors Table 2: Breakdown of online influencers by medium Social media conversations have described Widodo in a very positive light mostly for his hands- on leadership approach, and many consider him as a symbol of new hope for the people. On Twitter, his supporters' aggressive campaigning using the theme "JKW4P" led to nearly 1.8 million mentions compared with other potential candidates who are not as social media-savvy and have a very low level of influence on the microblogging site as a result. Organic Shares IHS analysis of Jokowi’s social media influence is a result of him picking up bona fide organic shares rather than having thousands of paid cyber troopers, and indicates that his 'every-man'
  • 3. approach has meant that his supporters are campaigning for him because they want to, rather than being paid to do so. Similarly noted when he was Major of Solo (2005-2012), Jokowi's leadership in Jakarta has been characterised by a grassroots approach to fixing problems that blight the lives of ordinary people: healthcare, education, floods, traffic, and poor housing. His frequent unannounced visits to poor neighbourhoods and government offices have made for a refreshing change compared with the perceived bureaucracy and unresponsiveness of other political leaders – all contributing to the organic growth of online followers. In contrast, Prabowo is another candidate whose campaign has made a lot of use of social media, especially Twitter. IHS analysis shows he engages almost daily with his 657,000 followers, setting out his policies, replying to their questions, and updating them on his media appearances. As a former special forces general, Prabowo presents himself as a tough and decisive leader in contrast with current president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono whose detractors see him as a weak and hesitant leader. Prabowo, who was once married to the daughter of late president Haji Muhammad Suharto, also chairs the Indonesian Farmers' Association (Himpunan Kerukunan Tani Indonesia: HKTI) and frequently campaigns on the need for Indonesia to be self-sufficient in food production. Key Electorate Issues IHS analysis of social media conversations indicate that corruption is likely to be the most important issue raised in the coming elections, where a large majority of online users want to see a president who is "transparent, clean, and honest". “Given Jokowi's anti-graft and clean image, he is likely to benefit greatly from this anti-corruption factor that ranks so highly,” says Bose. “Online users have voiced issues such as bribes as having become systemic, with the current ruling PDI-P coalition facing numerous scandals over the past few years. The economy ranks second-highest on the list of issues affecting the electorate, with the majority of conversations being on price increases, especially when the reduction in government subsidies caused a fuel price hike, and inflation spiraled to 8.4% at the end of 2013 – almost doubling the 4.3% rate recorded at the end of 2012. “As costs of living rise, there are many conversations on the need for greater economic development and job creation to ensure a better standard of living,” says Anton Alifandi, IHS Principal Analyst and co-author of the report.
  • 4. “Jokowi has also fared well on this count, with big businesses and investors being optimistic about his performance in improving Jakarta's economy. As such, the Jakarta Composite Index rose 3.2% following news that Jokowi would be his party's candidate for the presidential election. Rarely has the mere announcement of a candidacy been met with such investor relief.” In addition, issues of national identity are still important to a large majority of Indonesians, with many concerned about the country's global competitiveness, given the perception that the current government is keen to sell away Indonesia's rights to its natural resources, and therefore ensuring that such revenue remains in foreign hands. “This streak of resource nationalism shows no sign of abating, and most politicians are likely to continue encouraging such nationalism in order to keep voter support,” says Alifandi. “Prabowo has been playing this card very strongly, according to online conversations, urging voters not to elect a candidate that will be a 'puppet president' and who will hand Indonesian resources to 'outsiders'.” Chart 1: Breakdown of key electorate issues in Indonesia Personality matters IHS analysis also revealed that it is unlikely that party ideology and platforms will determine who voters support as the majority of Indonesians cast ballots based on the popularity of the party's likely presidential candidate. Most social media conversations in Indonesia appear to show little concern for politics or ideology, with the main preoccupation being their own welfare and that of their family but this follows way behind that of personality of political leaders and candidates. Party ideology and policies do not appear to be on the radar of a vast majority of online users.
  • 5. IHS analysis further indicated that voters no longer felt a sense of political belonging, because they feel that they have little power in influencing government policy. As such, they are likely to follow the popular personality and vote for such individuals. “The likeability of the presidential candidate – known as 'capres' in Indonesian – will probably remain the main factor in determining the number of seats a party will win in the legislative election,” notes Bose. “Voters will base their legislative vote on who the potential capres is, and what he wants to do, rather than on the regional legislative candidate they are electing.” The IHS analysis concludes that although the audience numbers are not as great as those of the country's dominant television broadcasters, increasing internet penetration will probably change this scenario in the 5–10-year outlook. Internet penetration has reached nearly 30% in the country, with approximately 70 million of the country's 250 million people going online regularly. ### About IHS (www.ihs.com) IHS (NYSE: IHS) is the leading source of information, insight and analytics in critical areas that shape today’s business landscape. Businesses and governments in more than 165 countries around the globe rely on the comprehensive content, expert independent analysis and flexible delivery methods of IHS to make high-impact decisions and develop strategies with speed and confidence. IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in 2005. Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS is committed to sustainable, profitable growth and employs approximately 8,000 people in 31 countries around the world. IHS is a registered trademark of IHS Inc. All other company and product names may be trademarks of their respective owners. Copyright © 2014 IHS Inc. All rights reserved.

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