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131011 ihs top 10 business risks in asia pacific
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131011 ihs top 10 business risks in asia pacific


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  • 1. INVITE: IHS Webinar Series: Top 10 Business Risks for Asia Pacific  Webinar (1) (Oct 18, 2.00pm Singapore Time): Political, Regulatory and Economic Risk  Webinar (2) (Nov 15, 2.00pm Singapore Time): Risk Management ___________________________________________________________________ Titled “IHS’s Top 10 Business Risks in Asia Pacific”, our APAC team of IHS Economics & Country Risk experts will share their insights and analysis of the biggest risks facing Asia’s business decision-makers and risk practitioners, including regulatory, economic and political aspects. IHS’s Top 10 Risk follows: 1. Extreme Currency Volatility As monetary settings out of the US become less accommodative, IHS is seeing a cyclical shift out of emerging markets. This shift has implications for business planning in Asia due to rising import costs, inflation, payment delays and potential import restrictions and capital controls. 2. Import Restrictions and Capital Controls Asian countries running substantial current account surpluses in the past have seen positions erode at a rapid clip. An outright balance of payments crisis is unlikely in most cases; however, import restrictions and capital controls are likely to be used to rebalance trade. IHS identifies countries with the highest risk.
  • 2. 3. Corporate Debt Restructuring and Defaults IHS views corporate debt as becoming much more vulnerable to default than sovereign debt as profitability comes under pressure. This is a significant issue in China, where the corporate debt level has reached 127% of GDP and is driving increased non-performing loans. 4. Consumer Spending Slowdown As Asian consumers have become more leveraged, an increase in global interest rates or tightening policies by central banks has the potential to noticeably slow consumer spending. 5. Property Market Correction High property prices in many Asian countries could see a correction either via policy measures, capital outflows or natural adjustment to higher interest rates. IHS weighs impacts on markets such as Malaysia. 6. China’s Reform Disappointment? New structural reforms are expected to be announced in November. If not, IHS sees Chinese growth slowing from an average 7.7% to 6.5% in the next 5 years. Regulatory tightening means foreign firms will continue to be squeezed out of the Chinese market in favor of domestic firms. 7. Reform Paralysis India’s government is in a weak position, unable to pass reforms favoring FDI before upcoming elections. In Indonesia, nationalist policies that started to emerge in 2010 are undermining FDI, a process furthered by recent currency issues. In both cases, there is little political room to modify FDI-related policies before elections, and the ability to do so after elections is dependent on election outcomes. 8. Political Unrest With several countries heading into election cycles – including Bangladesh, India and Indonesia – and emerging markets facing greater investor scrutiny, the economic impact of political unrest before elections could be amplified. 9. Fuel Subsidy Reductions Fuel subsidy reductions are likely to be play a key role in defining economic growth and consumer spending trends in countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam in the coming years. IHS looks ahead at the implications for overall inflation, nominal wage growth and consumer spending. 10.The Rise of Protectionism in Frontier Markets?
  • 3. Myanmar’s government wants to prevent key business sectors, such as financial services, from becoming dominated by foreign firms. This may well mean less opportunity for foreign players than expected as government policies become more protectionist over time. Varying levels of technocratic expertise will drive different regulatory risk outlooks in Myanmar and Mongolia. Date/Time  Webinar (I) (Oct 18, 2.00pm Singapore Time): Political, Regulatory and Economic Risk  Webinar (II) (Nov 15, 2.00pm Singapore Time): Risk Management Our IHS speakers will include:  Tony Nash, Vice President, APAC, IHS Economics & Country Risk  Dr. Nina Laven, Director, APAC, IHS Economics & Country Risk  Rachel Calvert, Senior Consultant, APAC, IHS Economics & Country Risk More information and speaker bios for the IHS webinar series can be found: To register your interest to attend, please follow this link where you will be presented with a calendar of IHS Webinars: ___________________________________________________________________ About IHS ( IHS (NYSE: IHS) is the leading source of information, insight and analytics in critical areas that shape today's business landscape. Businesses and governments in more than 165 countries around the globe rely on the comprehensive content, expert independent analysis and flexible delivery methods of IHS to make high- impact decisions and develop strategies with speed and confidence. IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in 2005. Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS is
  • 4. committed to sustainable, profitable growth and employs approximately 8,000 people in 31 countries around the world. IHS is a registered trademark of IHS Inc. All other company and product names may be trademarks of their respective owners. Copyright © 2013 IHS Inc. All rights reserved.