IHS Webinar Series:
Top 10 Business Risks for Asia Pacific
Webinar (1) (Oct 18, 2.00pm Singapore Time): Political, Regulatory and Economic Risk
Webinar (2) (Nov 15, 2.00pm Singapore Time): Risk Management
Titled “IHS’s Top 10 Business Risks in Asia Pacific”, our APAC team of IHS
Economics & Country Risk experts will share their insights and analysis of the
biggest risks facing Asia’s business decision-makers and risk practitioners,
including regulatory, economic and political aspects.
IHS’s Top 10 Risk follows:
1. Extreme Currency Volatility
As monetary settings out of the US become less accommodative, IHS is seeing
a cyclical shift out of emerging markets. This shift has implications for business
planning in Asia due to rising import costs, inflation, payment delays and
potential import restrictions and capital controls.
2. Import Restrictions and Capital Controls
Asian countries running substantial current account surpluses in the past have
seen positions erode at a rapid clip. An outright balance of payments crisis is
unlikely in most cases; however, import restrictions and capital controls are
likely to be used to rebalance trade. IHS identifies countries with the highest
3. Corporate Debt Restructuring and Defaults
IHS views corporate debt as becoming much more vulnerable to default than
sovereign debt as profitability comes under pressure. This is a significant issue
in China, where the corporate debt level has reached 127% of GDP and is
driving increased non-performing loans.
4. Consumer Spending Slowdown
As Asian consumers have become more leveraged, an increase in global
interest rates or tightening policies by central banks has the potential to
noticeably slow consumer spending.
5. Property Market Correction
High property prices in many Asian countries could see a correction either via
policy measures, capital outflows or natural adjustment to higher interest
rates. IHS weighs impacts on markets such as Malaysia.
6. China’s Reform Disappointment?
New structural reforms are expected to be announced in November. If not, IHS
sees Chinese growth slowing from an average 7.7% to 6.5% in the next 5 years.
Regulatory tightening means foreign firms will continue to be squeezed out of
the Chinese market in favor of domestic firms.
7. Reform Paralysis
India’s government is in a weak position, unable to pass reforms favoring FDI
before upcoming elections. In Indonesia, nationalist policies that started to
emerge in 2010 are undermining FDI, a process furthered by recent currency
issues. In both cases, there is little political room to modify FDI-related policies
before elections, and the ability to do so after elections is dependent on
8. Political Unrest
With several countries heading into election cycles – including Bangladesh,
India and Indonesia – and emerging markets facing greater investor scrutiny,
the economic impact of political unrest before elections could be amplified.
9. Fuel Subsidy Reductions
Fuel subsidy reductions are likely to be play a key role in defining economic
growth and consumer spending trends in countries like Indonesia, Malaysia
and Vietnam in the coming years. IHS looks ahead at the implications for
overall inflation, nominal wage growth and consumer spending.
10.The Rise of Protectionism in Frontier Markets?
Myanmar’s government wants to prevent key business sectors, such as
financial services, from becoming dominated by foreign firms. This may well
mean less opportunity for foreign players than expected as government
policies become more protectionist over time. Varying levels of technocratic
expertise will drive different regulatory risk outlooks in Myanmar and
Webinar (I) (Oct 18, 2.00pm Singapore Time): Political, Regulatory and
Webinar (II) (Nov 15, 2.00pm Singapore Time): Risk Management
Our IHS speakers will include:
Tony Nash, Vice President, APAC, IHS Economics & Country Risk
Dr. Nina Laven, Director, APAC, IHS Economics & Country Risk
Rachel Calvert, Senior Consultant, APAC, IHS Economics & Country Risk
More information and speaker bios for the IHS webinar series can be found:
To register your interest to attend, please follow this link where you will be
presented with a calendar of IHS Webinars:
About IHS (www.ihs.com)
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