Bett PiP


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Presentation given at BETT09 on DCSF stand under the Policy in Practice theme

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  • Talking about BCH long term education futures programme, funded by DCSF’s Technology Futures Unit and led by Futurelab. This session fits under the headings ‘ensuring the capacity and capability of providers’ and ‘ensuring effective system leadership’. So very briefly, I’ll explain why thinking about long term possible and probable futures can help just that.
  • Bett PiP

    1. 1. Dan Sutch [email_address]
    2. 2. Common concerns about a lack of preparation for ‘the future’ in education <ul><li>In the end I like what we did, but I wouldn’t call it schools for the future. I’d call it schools for the very near future . So what was missing from my point of view was having some real ‘blue skies’ thinking and then reining it back into something that you could deliver in the next say, five or ten years. (Alsop Architects, talking about BSF exemplars) </li></ul><ul><li>We’re always just fire-fighting and thinking about next week – we need something to help us raise our sights to the longer term question of ‘what is this all for ’ (England, Children’s Services Director) </li></ul><ul><li>I have to plan, I have to make serious and long term decisions that will affect education in my local authority for the next 20 – 50 years – but I haven’t got any tools to help me think that far ahead, I have no idea what the possibilities might be (Local Authority Education Advisor) </li></ul><ul><li>What I’m worried about is that we are just taking for granted what ‘the future will be’, we’re not actually asking whether that is likely to happen or not , or what other things might happen, and if we’re not doing that, god knows if we’re actually preparing children in the right way (award-winning Head teacher, England) </li></ul>
    3. 3. <ul><ul><li>Resist the temptation of ‘predictions’ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Challenge taken-for-granted assumptions about ‘the future’ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Explore and understand a very wide range of future possibilities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Understand which factors might cause these potential futures to come to pass </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Develop plans and strategies that are sustainable in multiple potential futures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consider the potential implications of actions now on possible futures </li></ul></ul>BCH Programme – building the capacity of UK educators to … to systematically investigating futures
    4. 4. <ul><li>Educational goals </li></ul><ul><li>Educational ‘personnel’ </li></ul><ul><li>Educational institutions </li></ul><ul><li>Educational methods </li></ul><ul><li>Educational tools </li></ul><ul><li>Educational outcomes </li></ul><ul><li>Beliefs about education </li></ul>To inform and question...
    5. 5. <ul><li>The BCH programme is aiming to build a challenging and long term vision for education in the context of socio-technological change 2025 and beyond </li></ul><ul><li>Long term futures programme intended to </li></ul><ul><li>Enhance the ‘futures thinking’ capacity of the UK education system </li></ul><ul><li>Inform current strategy, decision making and planning </li></ul><ul><li>Futurelab running the programme in partnership with DCSF </li></ul>
    6. 6. The 5 Challenges <ul><li>Generations and Life-course </li></ul><ul><li>Identities, Citizenship, Communities </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge, Creativity and Communication </li></ul><ul><li>Working and Employment </li></ul><ul><li>State/Market/Third Sector </li></ul><ul><li>Cross-challenge activities </li></ul><ul><li>Science and Technology Subgroup (review & cross-challenge involvement) </li></ul><ul><li>Demographics (Review) </li></ul><ul><li>Popular images of educational ‘futures’ – and how to challenge these (event) </li></ul><ul><li>Dealing with uncertainty and risk (review and event) </li></ul>
    7. 7. <ul><li>Socio–technological trends and future possibilities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Generations and life-course </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Knowledge, creativity and communication </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identities, communities and citizenship </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Working and Employment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>State/Market/Third Sector </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Programme of public and stakeholder engagement </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Industry, policy makers, R&D </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Citizens council, citizens panel, online consultations, interviews </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Broadly: Possible/ Probable/ Preferable Futures </li></ul>Programme 2007-2009
    8. 8. Challenges: Generations and Life-course: ... By 2030 half the population will be over 50, one quarter over 65 ...ageing societies require the transfer of educational resources between young and old ... The role of “qualifications” will need to be re-examined ... “radical longevity” as family’s ‘active health’ State, Market, Third Sector : ... Education is likely to be pluralistically funded by individuals, communities, employers, governments and private enterprise ... Pressure groups as the new ‘opposition’ ... Role of industry members as ‘teachers’ ... Links between young people learning and workforce development Knowledge, Creativity and Communication: ... Provigil and ‘cosmetic neurology’ ... Performance through smart drugs may require a trade off with creativity and originality ... New forms of sharing and communicating ... A change in what is perceived as important, new and necessary knowledge ... New ways of organising and representing knowledge Identities, Citizenship and Communities: Fertility rate that is below the replacement level and high levels of inward migration lead to a lower proportion of younger people and a more ethnically diverse ageing population ... Relationships between geographic, language-based, religious and virtual communities ... Online identities, avatars, virtual presence Working and Employment: ... Changing working hours and locations, and the implications for how schooling is organised ... Changing organisation of schooling, and the implications for working hours and locations ... Retirement based upon medical records not age ... Multi-generational workforces
    9. 9. Emerging social trends <ul><li>Aging population (healthy or unhealthy?) </li></ul><ul><li>Continued importance of childhood education for future success </li></ul><ul><li>Rise of parental purchasing power and informal learning economy </li></ul><ul><li>Increased rapid migration across all socio-economic groups </li></ul><ul><li>Development of reconstituted and complex family structures </li></ul><ul><li>Intensification of work across all areas of life </li></ul><ul><li>Increasingly complex IT systems outstrip human capacity to manage and predict outcomes </li></ul><ul><li>Blurring of the lines between public and private sector provision </li></ul>
    10. 10. Emerging technological trends <ul><li>Continuation of Moore’s Law </li></ul><ul><li>Once per decade disruptions </li></ul><ul><li>Computing as bio-science </li></ul><ul><li>Cosmetic psycho-pharmacology </li></ul><ul><li>Invasive & non-invasive brain/machine interfaces </li></ul><ul><li>3D printing and printable electronics </li></ul><ul><li>Artificial Intelligence remains hard </li></ul><ul><li>Large scale systems of systems </li></ul>
    11. 11. <ul><li>Educational goals </li></ul><ul><li>Educational ‘personnel’ </li></ul><ul><li>Educational institutions </li></ul><ul><li>Educational methods </li></ul><ul><li>Educational tools </li></ul><ul><li>Educational outcomes </li></ul><ul><li>Beliefs about education </li></ul>Thinking about...
    12. 12. <ul><li>What if... Visioning tools </li></ul><ul><li>Write your school vision </li></ul><ul><li>Test your plans/strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Workshop activities </li></ul><ul><li>6 possible futures </li></ul><ul><li>Challenging trends </li></ul><ul><li>Image ideas gallery </li></ul><ul><li>PowerPoint of inspiration </li></ul><ul><li>From vision to plan </li></ul><ul><li>Prioritise now </li></ul><ul><li>Case studies </li></ul><ul><li>BSF </li></ul> Free toolkit to support long-term planning in education
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    14. 14.
    15. 15. Thank you, and invitation: Dan Sutch [email_address] What would you ask of the ‘Oracle at Delphi’?