Bett PiP

Dan Sutch [email_address]

Common concerns about a lack of preparation for ‘the future’ in education
In the end I like what we did, but I wouldn’t call it schools for the future. I’d call it schools for the very near future . So what was missing from my point of view was having some real ‘blue skies’ thinking and then reining it back into something that you could deliver in the next say, five or ten years. (Alsop Architects, talking about BSF exemplars)
We’re always just fire-fighting and thinking about next week – we need something to help us raise our sights to the longer term question of ‘what is this all for ’ (England, Children’s Services Director)
I have to plan, I have to make serious and long term decisions that will affect education in my local authority for the next 20 – 50 years – but I haven’t got any tools to help me think that far ahead, I have no idea what the possibilities might be (Local Authority Education Advisor)
What I’m worried about is that we are just taking for granted what ‘the future will be’, we’re not actually asking whether that is likely to happen or not , or what other things might happen, and if we’re not doing that, god knows if we’re actually preparing children in the right way (award-winning Head teacher, England)

Resist the temptation of ‘predictions’
Challenge taken-for-granted assumptions about ‘the future’
Explore and understand a very wide range of future possibilities
Understand which factors might cause these potential futures to come to pass
Develop plans and strategies that are sustainable in multiple potential futures
Consider the potential implications of actions now on possible futures
BCH Programme – building the capacity of UK educators to … to systematically investigating futures

Educational goals
Educational ‘personnel’
Educational institutions
Educational methods
Educational tools
Educational outcomes
Beliefs about education
To inform and question...

The BCH programme is aiming to build a challenging and long term vision for education in the context of socio-technological change 2025 and beyond
Long term futures programme intended to
Enhance the ‘futures thinking’ capacity of the UK education system
Inform current strategy, decision making and planning
Futurelab running the programme in partnership with DCSF

The 5 Challenges
Generations and Life-course
Identities, Citizenship, Communities
Knowledge, Creativity and Communication
Working and Employment
State/Market/Third Sector
Cross-challenge activities
Science and Technology Subgroup (review & cross-challenge involvement)
Demographics (Review)
Popular images of educational ‘futures’ – and how to challenge these (event)
Dealing with uncertainty and risk (review and event)

Socio–technological trends and future possibilities
Generations and life-course
Knowledge, creativity and communication
Identities, communities and citizenship
Working and Employment
State/Market/Third Sector
Programme of public and stakeholder engagement
Industry, policy makers, R&D
Citizens council, citizens panel, online consultations, interviews
Broadly: Possible/ Probable/ Preferable Futures
Programme 2007-2009

Challenges: Generations and Life-course: ... By 2030 half the population will be over 50, one quarter over 65 ...ageing societies require the transfer of educational resources between young and old ... The role of “qualifications” will need to be re-examined ... “radical longevity” ...education as family’s ‘active health’ State, Market, Third Sector : ... Education is likely to be pluralistically funded by individuals, communities, employers, governments and private enterprise ... Pressure groups as the new ‘opposition’ ... Role of industry members as ‘teachers’ ... Links between young people learning and workforce development Knowledge, Creativity and Communication: ... Provigil and ‘cosmetic neurology’ ... Performance through smart drugs may require a trade off with creativity and originality ... New forms of sharing and communicating ... A change in what is perceived as important, new and necessary knowledge ... New ways of organising and representing knowledge Identities, Citizenship and Communities: Fertility rate that is below the replacement level and high levels of inward migration lead to a lower proportion of younger people and a more ethnically diverse ageing population ... Relationships between geographic, language-based, religious and virtual communities ... Online identities, avatars, virtual presence Working and Employment: ... Changing working hours and locations, and the implications for how schooling is organised ... Changing organisation of schooling, and the implications for working hours and locations ... Retirement based upon medical records not age ... Multi-generational workforces

Emerging social trends
Aging population (healthy or unhealthy?)
Continued importance of childhood education for future success
Rise of parental purchasing power and informal learning economy
Increased rapid migration across all socio-economic groups
Development of reconstituted and complex family structures
Intensification of work across all areas of life
Increasingly complex IT systems outstrip human capacity to manage and predict outcomes
Blurring of the lines between public and private sector provision

Emerging technological trends
Continuation of Moore’s Law
Once per decade disruptions
Computing as bio-science
Cosmetic psycho-pharmacology
Invasive & non-invasive brain/machine interfaces
3D printing and printable electronics
Artificial Intelligence remains hard
Large scale systems of systems
www.beyondcurrenthorizons.org.uk/findings/research-challenges/cross-challenge-papers/ http://tinyurl.com/SciTech

Educational goals
Educational ‘personnel’
Educational institutions
Educational methods
Educational tools
Educational outcomes
Beliefs about education
Thinking about...

What if... Visioning tools
Write your school vision
Test your plans/strategy
Workshop activities
6 possible futures
Challenging trends
Image ideas gallery
PowerPoint of inspiration
From vision to plan
Prioritise now
Case studies
BSF
www.beyondcurrenthorizons.org.uk Free toolkit to support long-term planning in education

www.beyondcurrenthorizons.org.uk

blog.beyondcurrenthorizons.org.uk

Thank you, and invitation: Dan Sutch [email_address] What would you ask of the ‘Oracle at Delphi’?

Bett PiP

by Dannno on Jan 20, 2009

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Bett PiP — Presentation Transcript