Quantitative Legal Prediction - Presentation at LawTechCamp - UToronto Law - June 2011

Quantitative Legal Prediction ( Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Embrace Disruptive Technology) Daniel Martin Katz Michigan State University - College of Law

(1) Big Data and Moore’s Law

(1) Big Data and Moore’s Law(2) The ‘Soft’ AI Revolution

(1) Big Data and Moore’s Law(2) The ‘Soft’ AI Revolution(3) Prediction

(1) Big Data and Moore’s Law(2) The ‘Soft’ AI Revolution(3) Prediction(4) Mental Models v. Aggregation

(1) Big Data and Moore’s Law(2) The ‘Soft’ AI Revolution(3) Prediction(4) Mental Models v. Aggregation(5) Quantitative Legal Prediction

This is the Era of “Big Data”

This is the Era of “Big Data”Increasing Computing Power

This is the Era of “Big Data”Increasing Computing PowerDecreasing Data Storage Costs

This is the Era of “Big Data”Increasing Computing PowerDecreasing Data Storage CostsFundamentally Altering the Scope of Scientific Inquiry

Highlighting the Data Deluge

Highlighting the Data Deluge 2008

Highlighting the Data Deluge 2008 2009

Highlighting the Data Deluge 2008 2009 2010

Highlighting the Data Deluge 2011

Highlighting the Data Deluge 2011 2011

Okay But ...

Data is only half the story

Computation andArtificial Intelligence

The Artificial Intelligence Revolution is On

An Meaningful‘Soft’ AI Example

E-Discovery

Some Applicable Terms

Natural Language Processing

Natural Language ProcessingKnowledge Representation

Natural Language ProcessingKnowledge Representation Feature Extraction

Natural Language ProcessingKnowledge Representation Feature Extraction Feature Selection

Natural Language ProcessingKnowledge Representation Feature Extraction Feature Selection Machine Learning

Natural Language ProcessingKnowledge Representation Feature Extraction Feature Selection Machine Learning Classification

Natural Language ProcessingKnowledge Representation Feature Extraction Feature Selection Machine Learning Classification Clustering

Prediction

A Few WordsAbout Prediction

Imagine Two Different Complex Systems

Weather

vs.Easy/ Predictable Difficult / Chaotic

The Caliber of Prediction is

A Function ofVarious Factors

Including ...

Underlying SystemVariability

Quality of Inputs

Formal Treatment of the question of prediction inalternative Domains

Quantitative Legal Prediction

It Already Exists ...

This is aGreat Example

But What Does the Market Really Care About?

Disputes v. Decisions

Disputes, Filings, etc.

Bargaining in theShadow of the Law

What is the Client’s First Question?

do i have a case?

how is that assessment generated?

Mental Models vsAggregated Data

lots of factors matter

Time Scales Matter

inherent systemvariability matters

‘complexity’ matters

Some Potential Inputs

what is the relevantinformation contained therein?

text, citations, votes, etc.

other metadata

what form might the outputs take?

standard client memo +statistical portrait of10,000 ‘similar’ cases

How do we assess similarity?

Analogical Reasoning and the Science of Similarity

similarity measures =~distance measures

developing thesedistance functions

is an important part of my research

just one example ...

Six Degrees of Marbury v. Madison A Sink Based Visualization

Some Additional Thoughts

Study of Law CanBe a Scientific Exercise

The Practice of Law Can be Closer to Engineering

The Market forLegal Services

The Market forLegal Education

Have a Date With Destiny

Some Reading ForYour Consideration

@computational

AdditionalMaterialsAvailable Online!

Quantitative Legal Prediction - Presentation at LawTechCamp - UToronto Law - June 2011

by Daniel Katz on Jun 20, 2011

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