Quantitative Legal Prediction - Midwest Law and Economics Conference 2011

Quantitative Legal Prediction ( Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Embrace Disruptive Technology) Daniel Martin Katz Michigan State University - College of Law

(1) Big Data and Moore’s Law

(1) Big Data and Moore’s Law(2) The ‘Soft’ AI Revolution

(1) Big Data and Moore’s Law(2) The ‘Soft’ AI Revolution(3) Prediction

(1) Big Data and Moore’s Law(2) The ‘Soft’ AI Revolution(3) Prediction(4) Mental Models v. Aggregation

(1) Big Data and Moore’s Law(2) The ‘Soft’ AI Revolution(3) Prediction(4) Mental Models v. Aggregation(5) Quantitative Legal Prediction

Goals for PaperHighlight the New Age ofQuantitative Legal PredictionDescribe the Implications forthe Market for Legal ServicesDescribe the Implications forthe Market for Legal Education

This is the Era of “Big Data”

This is the Era of “Big Data”Increasing Computing Power

This is the Era of “Big Data”Increasing Computing PowerDecreasing Data Storage Costs

This is the Era of “Big Data”Increasing Computing PowerDecreasing Data Storage CostsFundamentally Altering the Scope of Scientific Inquiry

Highlighting the Data Deluge

Highlighting the Data Deluge 2008

Highlighting the Data Deluge 2008 2009

Highlighting the Data Deluge 2008 2009 2010

Highlighting the Data Deluge 2011

Highlighting the Data Deluge 2011 2011

Okay But ...

Data is only half the story

Computation andArtificial Intelligence

The Artificial Intelligence Revolution is On

An Meaningful‘Soft’ AI Example

E-Discovery

Some Applicable Terms

Natural Language Processing

Natural Language ProcessingKnowledge Representation

Natural Language ProcessingKnowledge Representation Feature Extraction

Natural Language ProcessingKnowledge Representation Feature Extraction Feature Selection

Natural Language ProcessingKnowledge Representation Feature Extraction Feature Selection Machine Learning

Natural Language ProcessingKnowledge Representation Feature Extraction Feature Selection Machine Learning Classification

Natural Language ProcessingKnowledge Representation Feature Extraction Feature Selection Machine Learning Classification Clustering

Prediction

A Few WordsAbout Prediction

Imagine Two Different Complex Systems

Weather

vs.Easy/ Predictable Difficult / Chaotic

The Caliber of Prediction is

A Function ofVarious Factors

Including ...

Underlying SystemVariability

Quality of Inputs

Formal Treatment of the question of prediction inalternative Domains

Quantitative Legal Prediction

It Already Exists ...

Legal Procurement (High End of Market)General Counsels asLegal ProcurementSpecialistsTyMetrix - Using$4billion in LegalSpend Data to HelpGC’s Look for ArbitrageOpportunities

Legal Procurement (High End of Market)Driving Downyour Legal BillsYeah there is anApp for That City Firm Size Partner Calculate Experience

Likely to Be Much More ...

Data Driven Legal Supply Chain Mgmt.Different Form of PredictionHow Does a CompanyStaff for Peak Load?What sort of InternalPolicies are Efficient?

Legal Supply Chain Mgmt. (Low End of Market)Data and Logistics =Legal Service DeliveryModel that is actuallyaffordableModel Will BeDeveloped in UK

Legal Supply Chain Mgmt. (High End of Market)Data and Logistics =General Counsels asMaestrosLaw Firms Point of SaleProviders

This is ~10 Years Ago ...

Quantitative Legal Prediction Version 2.0

A Large Future Law Market

Disputes v. Decisions

Disputes, Filings, etc.

Bargaining in theShadow of the Law

What is the Client’s First Question?

do i have a case?

how is that assessment generated?

Mental Models vsAggregated Data

lots of factors matter

Time Scales Matter

inherent systemvariability matters

‘complexity’ matters

Some Potential Inputs

what is the relevantinformation contained therein?

text, citations, votes, etc.

other metadata

what form might the outputs take?

standard client memo +statistical portrait of10,000 ‘similar’ cases

How do we assess similarity?

Analogical Reasoning and the Science of Similarity

Science of Similarity is the Next Frontier inQuantitative Legal Prediction

A Brief Word About Data Driven Theory Building &The Science of Similarity

The Science of SimilarityWhat Makes a Set of High DimensionalObjects ‘Similar”?Movies People Words Music BooksCrowd Sourced Human Reasoning is HelpingDevelop a ‘New’ Science of Similarity

A Brief Word About Data Driven Theory BuildingThe Hypothesis Testing Frame isnot the only way to do ScienceOne Billion Clicks Can Be theBasis for a Theory Generation

A Brief Word About Data Driven Theory BuildingValidation Can Be AchievedThrough Either: (1) Out of Sample Testing (2) Forward PredictionExample: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netflix_Prize http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2009/09/ how-the-netflix-prize-was-won/

Additional Examples This is the Age of Aspirational Spelling (Spelling is 1.0 Thinking)

Additional Examples Collaborative FilteringPeople Who Bought XAlso Bought Y

similarity measures =~distance measures

developing thesedistance functions

is an important part of my research

just one example ...

A Few Words About... Legal Servicesand Legal Education

The Market forLegal Services

Law’s Information RevolutionLaw’s Information Revolution andLegal Information Engineering

The Market forLegal Education

Skills Mismatch?

The MIT School of Law

>>> Print “Welcome to Computational Legal Studies”Welcome to Computational Legal Studies

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Quantitative Legal Prediction - Midwest Law and Economics Conference 2011

by Daniel Martin Katz on Sep 17, 2011

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