Andrew Brearly Sedona New Year letter

New Year’s Indicators.Back in the early 1980’s, when I first got into Sedona real estate, a local broker/developer toldme that the Sedona real estate market lags Phoenix by about six months .So, I was cheered toread some end of year statistics from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS)which serves Phoenix and the surrounding cities. Here is the number that really caught my eye:total residential sales in 2011 exceeded 100,000 ,which is only a few thousand less than the 2005record of 104,000,and is a 10,000 unit / 10% increase over 2010.This has not yet happened in Sedona, where 2011 unit sales dropped 5% over 2010,but we areseeing stronger buyer traffic in terms of open escrows, which will translate into more closed unitswithin 30 to 60 days. However,at the national level the National Association Of Realtors reportsthat December sales increased 5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.6 million, the thirdstraight monthly increase.It has been about 5 years since agents have been able to report such robust, good news and themore you look for it,the more encouraging signs you come across. In fact, isn’t there an indexthat tracks the number of negative real estate comments versus the positive ones? Right now, mygut feel is that we have turned the corner and can start to sleep more deeply!Some of those positive comments about housing would have to include a mention of delinquentloans and the “shadow inventory”,those delinquencies that will show up on the market at a laterdate as a lender-owned property or REO.Standard and Poor reported in late November last yearthat Arizona and California were two of the states with the least amount of shadow inventoryand the worst states were on the East Coast, with New York having a particularly acute problemin this respect. Considering that Arizona, California, Nevada and Florida were among the firststates to be hit hard by the bursting bubble ,it is no real surprise that we are leading the way outof this mess .One final comment on something that a local mortgage broker, Linda Rogers, sent me. Shares inHome Depot are breaking out to a 10 year high after bottoming out in early 2009,right after thedemise of Lehman Bros. It seems that people must be finally putting money into their homesinstead of sitting on the fence in apprehension – now that is true consumer confidence in thehousing market, voting with their hard-earned income.Andrew Brearley

Andrew Brearly Sedona New Year letter

by Damian Bruno on Feb 07, 2012

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Andrew Brearly Sedona New Year letter — Document Transcript