Taking the Measure of the Doing Business Indicators An Independent Evaluation 采取营商指标的措施：一项独立评估 Shanghai International Program for Development Evaluation Training Asia-Pacific Finance and Development Center 200 Panlong Road-Shanghai, October 12, 2008 Cheryl Gray

Dadang Solihin Indonesia Delegation Shanghai International Program for Development Evaluation Training Cheryl W. Gray Director Inde pend ent Evaluation Group 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 [email_address] nk. org; www.worldban k.or g/ieg

Dadang Solihin

Indonesia Delegation

Shanghai International Program for Development Evaluation Training

Background 背景 “ Doing Business” (DB) among most well-known products of World Bank Group since early 2000s 自本世纪初开始，《全球营商环境报告》（ DB ）成为世界银行集团最知名的产品之一 Purports to rank countries on ease of doing business 目的是评估各国的营商环境，并给它们排名 In 2007 World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors asked IEG to undertake evaluation of DB 2007 年，世行执董会要求 IEG 对 DB 进行评价 Evaluation finalized and discussed at Board Spring 2008 评价最终确定并在 2008 年春季董事会上进行了讨论

“ Doing Business” (DB) among most well-known products of World Bank Group since early 2000s

自本世纪初开始，《全球营商环境报告》（ DB ）成为世界银行集团最知名的产品之一

Purports to rank countries on ease of doing business

目的是评估各国的营商环境，并给它们排名

In 2007 World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors asked IEG to undertake evaluation of DB

2007 年，世行执董会要求 IEG 对 DB 进行评价

Evaluation finalized and discussed at Board Spring 2008

评价最终确定并在 2008 年春季董事会上进行了讨论

‘ Ease of Doing Business’ averages rankings on 10 indicators 根据对 10 个指标的均衡考察给“营商环境”排名 Starting and closing a business 开办企业 Enforcing contracts 合同履约 Trading across borders 跨境贸易 Closing a business 企业破产 Registering property 财产登记 Protecting investors 投资者保护 Dealing with construction permits 申请施工许可 Paying taxes 缴纳税款 Employing workers 聘用工人 Getting credit 获取信贷

Starting and closing a business 开办企业

Enforcing contracts 合同履约

Trading across borders 跨境贸易

Closing a business 企业破产

Registering property 财产登记

Protecting investors 投资者保护

Dealing with construction permits 申请施工许可

Paying taxes 缴纳税款

Employing workers 聘用工人

Getting credit 获取信贷

Issue 1: 问题 1 ： What does Doing Business measure? 《全球营商环境报告》考察什么呢？

What does Doing Business measure?

《全球营商环境报告》考察什么呢？

DB covers less than half of businesses’ top constraints DB 仅涵盖了不到一半的营商主要限制条件 1. Access and/or cost of financing 融资渠道和 / 或融资成本 7. Anticompetitive or informal practices 反竞争做法或非正式做法 2. Corruption 腐败 8. Restrictive labor regulations 限制性的劳动法规 3. Inefficient government bureaucracy 低效的政府官僚作风 9. Political instability 政局不稳定 4. Infrastructure (e.g. electricity, transportation) 基础设施（如电，交通等） 10. Macroeconomic instability 宏观经济不稳定 5. Tax rates 税率 11. Skills and education of workers 工人的技能和所受教育 6. Tax administration 税务管理 12. Economic and regulatory policy uncertainty 经济和监管政策的不确定性 Shaded items are covered by DB 加底纹的项是 DB 涵盖的内容

RECOMMENDATION: Be clearer about what DB does and does not measure 建议：要更加清楚 DB 衡量哪些内容和不衡量哪些内容 Since DBI measures…. 由于 DBI…… Only a few of the constraints on business 仅衡量营商限制条件中的少数几个 Written rules, not actual practice 衡量的是书面规则，而不是实际做法 Regulations’ burdens, not benefits 衡量法规的负担，而不是益处 … .it should avoid overstating the indicators’ scope and explanatory power …… 所以它应避免夸大指标的范围和解释力

Since DBI measures….

由于 DBI……

Only a few of the constraints on business

仅衡量营商限制条件中的少数几个

Written rules, not actual practice

衡量的是书面规则，而不是实际做法

Regulations’ burdens, not benefits

衡量法规的负担，而不是益处

… .it should avoid overstating the indicators’ scope and explanatory power

…… 所以它应避免夸大指标的范围和解释力

Issue 2 ： 问题 2 ： Who provides data for Doing Business? 谁来为《全球营商环境报告》提供数据？

Who provides data for Doing Business?

谁来为《全球营商环境报告》提供数据？

DB informants are mostly lawyers DB 知情人士大多是律师 私营部门的律师（ 70% ） 其他（ 4% ） 普华永道事务所 的会计师（ 7% ） 非普华永道事务所 的会计师（ 1% ） 政府官员（ 18% ）

Few informants per indicator 每个指标的知情人士过少 Employing Workers 雇用工人 Enforcing Contracts 执行合同 Getting Credit 获取信贷 Paying Taxes 缴税 Starting a Business 开办企业 Legal Rights 法定权利 Public/ Private Credit Bureau 公私信贷局 Average number of informants per country 每个国家的知情人士的平均数量 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.0 3.5

RECOMMENDATION: Get more informants 建议：获得更多知情人士 Disclose how many informants per indicator per country 批露每个国家每个指标有多少知情人士 Establish selection criteria 设定遴选标准 Recruit more informants… especially for indicators with fewest informants and the countries with least reliable information 招募更多的知情人士……尤其是对知情人士过少的指标和信息太不可靠的国家而言

Disclose how many informants per indicator per country

批露每个国家每个指标有多少知情人士

Establish selection criteria

设定遴选标准

Recruit more informants… especially for indicators with fewest informants and the countries with least reliable information

招募更多的知情人士……尤其是对知情人士过少的指标和信息太不可靠的国家而言

Issue 3 问题 3 How robust are the data and the rankings? 数据和排名的可靠程度如何？

How robust are the data and the rankings?

数据和排名的可靠程度如何？

DB changes its published data… DB 对它已出版的数据进行变更… In 2007, DB changed 40% of the numbers after the rankings were published. 2007 年，在排名公开发表后， DB 对 40% 的数据作了变更。 The changes would have made 48 countries go up or down by at least 10 ranks 这些变更至少会让 48 个国家的排名上调或下移 10 个名次。 Basis for corrections is not explained 未对数据调整的依据作任何说明。

In 2007, DB changed 40% of the numbers after the rankings were published.

2007 年，在排名公开发表后， DB 对 40% 的数据作了变更。

The changes would have made 48 countries go up or down by at least 10 ranks

这些变更至少会让 48 个国家的排名上调或下移 10 个名次。

Basis for corrections is not explained

未对数据调整的依据作任何说明。

RECOMMENDATION: Disclose data changes 建议：对数据变更进行披露 disclose data changes as they are made 数据如有变更时，及时进行披露。 explain their effect on the rankings 解释这些变更对排名的影响。 make available the removed data for research 使删掉的数据能用于研究

disclose data changes as they are made

数据如有变更时，及时进行披露。

explain their effect on the rankings

解释这些变更对排名的影响。

make available the removed data for research

使删掉的数据能用于研究

Issue 4 问题 4 How sound is the “paying taxes” indicator? “ 缴纳税款”这一指标有多健全？

How sound is the “paying taxes” indicator?

“ 缴纳税款”这一指标有多健全？

Anomalies in Paying Taxes “ 纳税”中的异常 One firm provides data on 142 countries 某公司提供了 142 个国家的纳税数据 “ Total tax rate” reflects fiscal policy -- not ‘red tape’ “ 总税率”反映了财政政策——非“繁文缛节”。 Top-rated countries on tax rate include tax havens and oil states 税率最高的国家包括避税国和石油国。

One firm provides data on 142 countries

某公司提供了 142 个国家的纳税数据

“ Total tax rate” reflects fiscal policy -- not ‘red tape’

“ 总税率”反映了财政政策——非“繁文缛节”。

Top-rated countries on tax rate include tax havens and oil states

税率最高的国家包括避税国和石油国。

RECOMMENDATION: Simplify Paying Taxes 建议：对“纳税”进行简化 Collect information on tax rates but exclude it from the rankings 收集有关税率方面的信息，但不包括在排名内 Simplify the calculations and get more informants to reduce dependency on PwC 简化计算过程，获取更多的知情人士，减少对普华永道的依赖

Collect information on tax rates but exclude it from the rankings

收集有关税率方面的信息，但不包括在排名内

Simplify the calculations and get more informants to reduce dependency on PwC

简化计算过程，获取更多的知情人士，减少对普华永道的依赖

Issue 5 问题 5 How useful is Doing Business? 《全球营商环境报告》的实用性有多大？

How useful is Doing Business?

《全球营商环境报告》的实用性有多大？

Usefulness of the DB Indicators DB 指标的实用性 High 高 sparking dialogue on regulatory issues 引发对监管问题的讨论 Low 低 designing and sequencing reform programs 对改革计划进行设计和排序

High 高

sparking dialogue on regulatory issues

引发对监管问题的讨论

Low 低

designing and sequencing reform programs

对改革计划进行设计和排序

Other Considerations for the World Bank Group 世行集团须考虑的其它问题 Is the World Bank Group inadvertently signaling that reducing regulation is its most important development goal? 世行集团是否在暗自说明“减少监管”为其最重要的发展目标？ How can it celebrate other development achievements ? 它如何 来 庆祝其它发展成就？ Can the DB approach be applied to other development issues? DB 方法能否应用于其它发展问题？ Only where actionable indicators can proxy the target outcomes and where the direction of improvement is uniform for all countries. 仅在可操作的指标能代表目标结果及改进方向对所有国家都一致的情况下

Is the World Bank Group inadvertently signaling that reducing regulation is its most important development goal?

世行集团是否在暗自说明“减少监管”为其最重要的发展目标？

How can it celebrate other development achievements ?

它如何 来 庆祝其它发展成就？

Can the DB approach be applied to other development issues?

DB 方法能否应用于其它发展问题？

Only where actionable indicators can proxy the target outcomes and where the direction of improvement is uniform for all countries.

仅在可操作的指标能代表目标结果及改进方向对所有国家都一致的情况下

Thank you 谢谢 www.worldbank.org/ieg/doing business

www.worldbank.org/ieg/doing business

Where do civil law countries do poorly? 大陆法系国家哪些地方做得不好？ Civil law countries score significantly lower than common law countries on 12 subindicators 在 12 个子指标上，大陆法系国家比普通法系国家的得分要低得多 DBI Subindicator 子指标 Employing Workers 雇员工人 Difficulty of Hiring index, Difficulty of Firing index, Rigidity of Hours index 雇佣难度指数、解聘难度指数、工作时间严格执行指数 Getting Credit 获取信贷 Legal Rights index 法定权利指数 Protecting Investors 保护投资者 Extent of director liability index, Ease of shareholder suits index 董事责任程度指数、股东诉讼难易程度指数 Starting a Business 开办企业 Procedures, Cost, Minimum Capital Requirement, Time* 流程、成本、最低资本金要求 Paying Taxes 缴税 Time, Payments* 时间、税款 Dealing with Licenses 申请经营许可 Time* 时间 * All differences are significant at the 99% level unless noted with an asterisk (*) indicating significance level at 95%

Civil law countries score significantly lower than common law countries on 12 subindicators

在 12 个子指标上，大陆法系国家比普通法系国家的得分要低得多

Not all reforms are rewarded equally 不是所有改革都得到了同等回报 Countries at the more dispersed sections of the distribution must work harder to change their overall rankings 下面分布图中处于分散部位的国家须更加努力来提高整体排名 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Total Tax Rate as a Share of Profits 总税率占利润的百分比 Number of Countries 国家数量 Latvia 拉脱维亚 Belarus 白俄罗斯 拉脱维亚 税率降低 10% 提升 17 个名次 白俄罗斯 税率降低 42% 名次不变 no change in rank reduced tax rate 42% Belarus up 17 ranks reduced tax rate 10% Latvia

Countries at the more dispersed sections of the distribution must work harder to change their overall rankings 下面分布图中处于分散部位的国家须更加努力来提高整体排名

Beside working as Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, he also active as Associate Professor at University of Darma Persada, Jakarta, Indonesia. He got various training around the globe, included Shanghai International Program for Development Evaluation Training (2008) , Public Officials Capacity Building Training Program for Government Innovation, Seoul –Korea (2007), Advanced International Training Programme of Information Technology Management, at Karlstad City, Sweden (2005); the Training Seminar on Land Use and Management, Taiwan (2004); Developing Multimedia Applications for Managers, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (2003); Applied Policy Development Training, Vancouver, Canada (2002); Local Government Administration Training Course, Hiroshima, Japan (2001); and Regional Development and Planning Training Course, Sapporo, Japan (1999). He published more than five books regarding local autonomous. You can reach Dadang Solihin by email at dadangsol@yahoo.com or by his mobile at +62812 932 2202 Dadang Solihin currently is Director for Regional D evelopment Performance Evaluation at Indonesian National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas). He holds MA degree in Economics from University of Colorado, USA. His previous post is Director for System and Reporting of Development Performance Evaluation at Bappenas. Dadang Solihin’s Profile

Beside working as Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, he also active as Associate Professor at University of Darma Persada, Jakarta, Indonesia.

He got various training around the globe, included Shanghai International Program for Development Evaluation Training (2008) , Public Officials Capacity Building Training Program for Government Innovation, Seoul –Korea (2007), Advanced International Training Programme of Information Technology Management, at Karlstad City, Sweden (2005); the Training Seminar on Land Use and Management, Taiwan (2004); Developing Multimedia Applications for Managers, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (2003); Applied Policy Development Training, Vancouver, Canada (2002); Local Government Administration Training Course, Hiroshima, Japan (2001); and Regional Development and Planning Training Course, Sapporo, Japan (1999). He published more than five books regarding local autonomous.

You can reach Dadang Solihin by email at dadangsol@yahoo.com or by his mobile at +62812 932 2202