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Impact Evaluation: HOW and WHEN RURAL ROADS Benefit the Poor 乡村公路如何以及何时造福穷人:来自亚行案例研究的经验
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Impact Evaluation: HOW and WHEN RURAL ROADS Benefit the Poor 乡村公路如何以及何时造福穷人:来自亚行案例研究的经验

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Shanghai International Program for Development Evaluation Training Asia-Pacific Finance and Development Center; 200 Panlong Road-Shanghai, October 13, 2008

Shanghai International Program for Development Evaluation Training Asia-Pacific Finance and Development Center; 200 Panlong Road-Shanghai, October 13, 2008

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Impact Evaluation: HOW and WHEN RURAL ROADS Benefit the Poor 乡村公路如何以及何时造福穷人:来自亚行案例研究的经验 Impact Evaluation: HOW and WHEN RURAL ROADS Benefit the Poor 乡村公路如何以及何时造福穷人:来自亚行案例研究的经验 Presentation Transcript

  • Impact Evaluation: HOW and WHEN RURAL ROADS Benefit the Poor 乡村公路如何 以及 何时 造福穷人 :来自亚行案例研究的经验 Shanghai International Program for Development Evaluation Training Asia-Pacific Finance and Development Center 200 Panlong Road-Shanghai, October 13, 2008 Mala Hettige
    • Mala Hettige
    • Director Evaluation Division 2
    • Asian Development Bank
    • 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City
    • 1550 Metro Manila, Philipines
    • hhettige@adb.org; www.adb.org /evaluation
  • Study Objectives and Focus 研究的目的和重点
    • Objective was to learn how to better design future rural road components to achieve inclusive access. 目的是学习如何更好地设计未来的农村公路,以打破封闭状态
      • Is there an impact on the poor? 对穷人是否有影响?
      • When does it work? 什么时候起作用?
      • How does it work? 怎么起作用?
      • Deep and narrow case study approach to capture the process
      • 深入细致的案例研究方法,以掌握这个过程
    www.dadangsolihin.com
  • Methodological issues 方法论问题
    • No baseline information makes comparison of before and after impacts difficult 没有基线信息,因而难以对比前后的影响
    • Used household surveys and recall techniques 使用家庭调查和回忆法
    • No control sites established to compare with and without project 没有建立控制点进行有无项目的对比
    • Matching control sites found with difficulty 很困难地找到对应的控制点
    www.dadangsolihin.com
  • Study Direction 研究方向
    • Focus on transport projects and integrated rural development projects 集中于交通项目和综合农村发展项目
    • Case study approach to understand the process of generating increased benefits 用案例研究的方法了解增加收益的过程
    • Direct and indirect impacts with key impact indicators. 关键影响指标的直接和间接影响
    • Maximize learning impact rather than measuring the impact 将学习影响最大化,而不是将测量影响最大化
    • Focus on poor areas to capture the benefits to the poor 关注穷困地区,了解带给穷人的益处
    • Variety of information tools used sequentially to trainagulate and validate the information 相继用各种信息工具来解释和验证信息
    www.dadangsolihin.com
  • Definitions 定义
    • Poverty is a multi-dimensional concept……..a deprivation of (5) assets and entitlements essential to life, and a susceptibility to periodic physical and economic shocks and seasonal crises.
    • 贫穷是个 多维 概念……是对生命必不可少的( 5 种)资产和权利的剥夺,是对周期性的身体疾病和经济冲击以及季节危机的无法抵御。
    CAPITAL ASSETS 资产 Strategies 省级策略 Livelihood www.dadangsolihin.com STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS 结构条件 INSTITUTIONS 机构 PROCESSES 过程 PROCESSES 过程 Physical 身体的 Financial 金钱的 Human 人的 Natural 自然的 Social 社会的 Livelihood Outcomes 生计状况
  • Rural Roads…… 农村公路 ……
    • Integrated Rural Development Projects 农村综合发展项目
        • Low traffic volumes 低交通量
        • Gravel roads 砂石路
      • Transport Sector Projects 交通项目
        • Higher volumes of through traffic 高 交通联运量
        • Paved roads in rural areas 农村铺设的公路
    www.dadangsolihin.com
  • Tools Used 使用的工具 No baseline data. Used secondary data and recall techniques 没有基线数据。使用二手数据和回忆法 PRA Tools to capture different groups 用于了解不同群体的概率风险评估工具 Key informant interviews 关键人物访谈 Household Surveys 家庭调查 Participant observations 参与者观察 Traffic Analysis 交通分析 Country workshops to validate preliminary findings 验证初步成果的农村培训班 Reporting Framework to traingulate information 用于阐释信息的报告框架 2 week stay in Project & Control Sites 在项目和控制点驻扎两周 Participatory poverty classification 参与式贫困分级 www.dadangsolihin.com
  • External Conditions affecting the ability to graduate from poverty 外部条件影响着摆脱贫穷的能力
    • Climate and natural resources are key factors in agricultural production………(land fertility, severe drought) 气候和 自然资源 是农业生产的关键因素……(土地肥沃,干旱)
    • Macroeconomic Context and Terms of Trade .. (rubber prices) 宏观经济和 贸易状况 (橡胶价格)
    • Access to road networks and market centers (remote areas) 进入公路 网络 和市场中心的条件(偏远地区)
    • Social structure and concentration of assets (60% of households own less than 1 ha. 78% are agriculture workers) 社会节后和资产集中度( 60% 的家庭拥有不到 1.5% 的资产。 78% 的人是农业工人)
    When ? ……..(External and Structural Conditions are right) 何时? ……(外部和结构条件合适) www.dadangsolihin.com
    • Indebtedness………. 负债
    • Many poor farmers and laborers were heavily reliant on credit extended by traders. 很多贫穷的农民和劳动者严重依赖交易商给的贷款
    • Borrow money against next crop or providing future labor during peak times. 借钱支撑到下一个农收,或者在高峰期提供未来的劳动力
    • No access to formal credit sources or requirements are too onerous. 没有正常的信贷来源,或者信贷条件太繁琐。
    When ? 何时? www.dadangsolihin.com
  • Family size and Social Networks……. 家庭大小和社会网络
    • High correlation between household size and poverty 家庭大小和贫困有很大的关联
    • Social networks and length of residence important as a safety net or to to build assets to move out of poverty 社会网络和居住时间是累积资产摆脱贫困的重要安全网
    www.dadangsolihin.com
  • But many of the very poor still live in a “walking world” 很多非常贫困的人仍然生活在“步行的世界” Poor walk often and use transport only occasionally 穷人常常步行,而且 只是偶尔 乘坐交通工具 How ? 如何进行? 使用交通服务的频率(项目案例 ) 偶尔使用 经常使用 从来不用 比邻居好 比邻据差 差不多 对生活质量的认识 反馈百分比 百分比 比邻据差 比邻居好 差不多 外出购买物品时所用的交通工具(穷人) 其他 公交车 小巴士 卡车 小汽车 三轮 摩托车 自行车 其他 动物拉的车 步行 www.dadangsolihin.com
  • Who benefits more? 谁更受益?
    • Vehicle operators are the primary beneficiaries (higher incomes, lower costs); 车辆运营人 是首要的受益人(收入更高,成本更低) ;
    • Traders and agricultural middlemen benefit from both bad and good roads ( less competition to more volume); 交易商 和 农业中间商 能从好路和坏路中都获益(运量大且竞争少)
    • Shifting patterns of transport services may be affect some poor transport providers beneficially or adversely. 改变交通服务模式对某些 贫穷的运输供应商 可能产生有益影响,也可能产生不利影响。
    How ? 如何进行? www.dadangsolihin.com
  • Item 各项设施 Project Site 项目地点 Control Site 控制地点 Share of Households (%) 家庭数量 How ? 如何进行? Project sites have better access to facilities as they are available in village with roads . ……and average time for access services is lower 项目地点可以更容易地获得一些设施,因为村庄中有公路可通。……而且获取这些服务的时间更短 到医疗所的平均时间(往返路程) 外出办理证件的平均时间(往返路程) 出差或外出上班的平均时间(往返路程) 化费的时间:分钟 化费的时间:分钟 化费的时间:分钟 www.dadangsolihin.com   Drinking Water 饮用水     Protected Well or Tap 保护的水井或自来水 37 35 Private Well or Tap 自家水井或自来水 28 14 Piped to House 抽水到家 16 0 Unprotected Well 未受保护水井 11 24 Private Rainwater Tank 自家雨水收集罐 4 17 Other 其他 4 10 Sanitation 卫生状况     Private Flush 自家冲洗 5 7 Private Latrine 自家厕所 53 31 Public Latrine 公共厕所 4 1 Open Pit 露天厕所 20 22 Field 农田 15 29 Other 其他 3 10 Electricity 电     Yes 是 28 11 No 否 72 89
  • To improve inclusiveness…need.. more than a rural road 要改善农村的封闭… … 需要的… …不仅仅是一条乡村公路 How ? 如何进行?
    • Dependable transport services 可靠的交通服务
    • Reduction in cost of travel 减少交通成本
    • Regular road maintenance. 定期公路养护
    • Access to information 获取信息
    • Seed capital to start a business 提供做生意的创业资金
    www.dadangsolihin.com
  • Some poor have graduated with commercialization… 有些穷人已经通过经商摆脱了贫困……
    • Using….. 通过使用
    • Skills 技术
    • Seed capital 创业资金
    • Information 信息
    How ? 如何进行? www.dadangsolihin.com
  • Study Conclusions 研究结论
    • Basic access is a high priority for poor especially for health 对穷人,尤其是他们的健康来说,基本的通达条件是首要的
    • => reduces vulnerably of poor and non poor 增强穷人和非穷人的抗害能力
    • All weather access, variety of transport services 全天候可通达的公路,各种交通服务
    • => important for livelihood development in project sites for those with assets 对于那些有资产的人来说,这对项目地的生活条件的改善非常重要。
    • Poor inhibit a walking world…no opportunities to use roads 穷人生活在步行的世界……没有机会使用公路
    • => need a net work of tracks paths, culverts important for essentials 需要道路和排水道网络
    • Improved opportunities for agricultural labor 农业劳动力获得了更多的机遇
    • only if conditions are right
    • 只要条件合适
    www.dadangsolihin.com
  • Considerations for Implementation of Road Projects 对实施公路项目的几点考虑
    • Labor based techniques used on roads suitable for low traffic volumes can provide short-term injections of cash 在适宜低交通流量的公路上使用的 劳动技术 可以带来短期的 现金流入
    • Neglect of routine maintenance due to political reasons –road quality cycles discourage very poor using road for livelihood 由于政治原因而忽略日常养护,糟糕的公路质量使得依靠公路谋生的 穷人感到无奈
    • Institutional responsibility for roads unclear in integrated projects 在 综合 项目中,机构对公路承担的责任并不明确
    • Community participation as a key for long-term sustainability 社区参与是可以长久 持续下去 的关键
    • Analyze how other factors for inclusiveness are likely to follow the implementation of a road project. 分析其它 涵盖 因素 会如何跟上公路项目的实施。
    www.dadangsolihin.com
  • Thank you! 谢谢! www.adb.org/Evaluation
  • www.dadangsolihin.com
    • Beside working as Assistant Professor at Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, he also active as Associate Professor at University of Darma Persada, Jakarta, Indonesia.
    • He got various training around the globe, included Shanghai International Program for Development Evaluation Training (2008) , Public Officials Capacity Building Training Program for Government Innovation, Seoul –Korea (2007), Advanced International Training Programme of Information Technology Management, at Karlstad City, Sweden (2005); the Training Seminar on Land Use and Management, Taiwan (2004); Developing Multimedia Applications for Managers, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (2003); Applied Policy Development Training, Vancouver, Canada (2002); Local Government Administration Training Course, Hiroshima, Japan (2001); and Regional Development and Planning Training Course, Sapporo, Japan (1999). He published more than five books regarding local autonomous.
    • You can reach Dadang Solihin by email at [email_address] or by his mobile at +62812 932 2202
    Dadang Solihin currently is Director for Regional D evelopment Performance Evaluation at Indonesian National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas). He holds MA degree in Economics from University of Colorado, USA. His previous post is Director for System and Reporting of Development Performance Evaluation at Bappenas. Dadang Solihin’s Profile