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2015 CIO Outlook Presentation

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  • Hi Dave, thanks for posting this here - its fascinating to look at this with the benefit of hindsight (and somewhat better foresight, since we're much closer to 2015!) and see how prescient this study was! Kudos on a great analysis.

    Kapil.
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  • 1. 2015 CIO Outlook September, 2008 Dave Newbold
  • 2. 2015 CIO Outlook 2015 Outlook Business/usage trends Technology projections Opportunities for innovators “The 2015 CIO Outlook An employee scenario is a point of view on the future and a roadmap for IBM’s CIO organization” 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation 2
  • 3. Thinking about 2015 •  We are hardwired for everything new •  To paraphrase science fiction author William Gibson: “2015 is here already, it’s just unevenly distributed” The Net 100 billion PC chips on the Internet 2 million emails per second 1 million IM messages per second 8 terabytes per second traffic Your brain 255 exabytes magnetic storage 100 billion clicks per day 1 million voice queries per hour 55 trillion links/synapses 2 billion location nodes activated 1 quintillion transistor/neurons 20 petahertz synapse firings 255 exabytes memory Source: Kevin Kelly, EG Conference, December 4, 2007 (http://www.the-eg.com) 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation 3
  • 4. Business/usage trends with 2015 impact •  Post-Globalization environment •  Environment and Energy Alignment with regional market and time zones Smaller, energy efficient supply chains Emergent cell phone economies in growth countries Consistency of processes, but local variance Need to grow appropriate skills for dynamic business challenges Computing takes ~5% of global electrical demand (servers and clients) 76% data center growth ‘05 to ’10 (IDC) Second Life Avatars, when active consume 71% of per user average electricity consumption 4 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation
  • 5. Business/usage trends with 2015 impact •  Post-Globalization environment Information doubling every three years •  Environment and Energy •  Conquering information Text tools are poised to triumph •  Transparent digital economy Location based business models enabled •  Mobility Enterprises will leverage their scale Commerce will be fully digital Everything will be exposed by customers Authenticity and values will prevail Employees increasingly mobile Transparency will be a business model design Mobile devices start replacing laptops Expect full capability and integration Application design is task specific Smart phone is recorder/sensor 5 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation
  • 6. Business/usage trends with 2015 impact Gen X and Millennials (“Gen Y”) share radically different •  Post-Globalization environment work styles; open collaboration, casual management, integrated social tools and high IT literacy; must •  Environment and Energy accommodate this to gain benefit •  Conquering information Boomers want more flexible transitions to retirement as •  Transparent digital economy well; e.g., project work that maximizes their value •  Mobility •  Generational accommodation •  The nature of work Work and life integrated (vs. balanced) •  Consumer driven IT Many more devices in environment to provide awareness and flexibility when desired; e.g. conference video from home office to car to cell Interruption will be contextual and managed Consumer IT market is innovative and competitive Enterprises experimenting with employee choice of devices Client virtualization provides secure, personalized desktop downloadable to most devices IT device burden shifted to employees 6 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation
  • 7. Technology shifts for 2015 •  Pragmatic, Social Web •  Insights from exabytes •  Interface Innovations •  Cloud computing •  Green IT and ET •  Application assembly •  Visual Business Processes •  Smart Planet 7 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation
  • 8. Shift 2015: Pragmatic, Social Web Web Oriented Architecture (WOA) Web is the dominant application platform; runs everywhere Desktop OS becomes a commodity Enterprises will utilize virtual client OS VMs for secure, personal work spaces—downloaded onto any device Software as a Service (SaaS) Typical delivery model; applications and data are integrated in the cloud Information is commoditized; metadata and contextual insight are personal Security and robustness are assumed Social computing Fluid, portable and very well defended—across many sites and/or borders Reputations acquire legal status as property Significant resources are deployed to protect identity and reputation Privacy and opacity engines, like today’s physical exclusivity, will be highly refined Many speculate we will become nomadic again 8 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation
  • 9. Shift 2015: Insights from Exabytes Intelligent information infrastructure Enough data and compute resources to make data reveal itself with scalable tools (FastBit, MapReduce, Hadoop, etc.) for correlation and indexing Data will self-assemble organically for presentation to you Structured data will be a niche necessity for legacy systems, as unstructured systems will overwhelm and “close enough” will suffice Everyone will be an “info-vore” and very capable of sophisticated visual analysis of data sets (Humans still superlative at pattern recognition) Data clouds will utilize low cost commodity disk drives in redundant, distributed arrays with location fetch logic (.01 of today’s GSA cost); data management will be eliminated Value is in the filter, human and machine generated Right insight in the right place at the right time (consider location based marketing) 9 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation
  • 10. Shift 2015: Interface Innovations Mobile devices replace laptops Ambient telepresence will surround us VHD displays everywhere: walls, surfaces, cars, appliances Synthesized environments common for remote collaboration Real world augmentation Sensors accumulate and network around and on us Personal Area Networks and distributed mobile devices (clothes, watch, phone, contacts, glasses, jewelry, implants) Speech, gesture and air typing (via PAN) input Retinal projection and brain wave cursors used widely ‘Holo-selves’ on horizon in 2015 Full symmetric immersion of sensing/being in virtual space – partial enablement available before 2015 (gloves and clothing provide movement, temperature, pressure, etc.) and the advent of neural interfaces 10 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation
  • 11. 2015 CIO Outlook opportunities Transparent external collaboration Insight for our real world Expose business processes Embrace Clouds and consumer IT Leveraging social energy Generational inversion 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation 11
  • 12. Where we are today •  Simplifying and integrating our enterprise IT application portfolio •  Driving global process integration •  Implemented “Enterprise 2.0” and driving it deliberately outside •  Information as a service •  Social networking, tag, filtering, rating everywhere •  Social data visualization and analysis services •  Active global innovation facility (TAP) •  Many mobile solutions in place •  Piloting web desktops (SaaS) •  Tackling very large data sets with internal and external integration 12 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation
  • 13. Transparent external collaboration Our capabilities exposed externally to fully engage the market (2010) Most work becomes project-oriented; ‘employment’ compact is fluid and evolving Easily exchange trusted identity and social network information with partners (2012) Co-creation becomes a way of just working with others; pooled IP can be easily managed and negotiated on the fly Enterprise fades as a central physical entity for employees? Business Value Deepens our client insight and promotes closer collaboration on new opportunities. External social tools enable the Global Citizen; an employee prepared to succeed in a dynamic global marketplace where change is the norm. Transparency allows clients to understand depth of our capabilities and build trust rapidly. 13 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation
  • 14. Insight for our real world Leverage Hadoop pilots and expand to include the full array of collaboration and business process data Close the infrastructure management loop Autonomics and analytics and visualization (drive system & network management costs down) Make enterprise data self cleansing and accessible More experimentation with contextual delivery Focus on filters Low operational cost to user; adaptively social Business Value Puts key corporate data in the right place at the right time and supporting deeper insight into business functions. Make use of the ubiquitous sensors in the environment to provide new services and higher returns. Provides a mechanism to leverage the collective insights of your entire organization 14 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation
  • 15. Visualize business processes Expose business process flow, attributes and semantics to users Let them tag elements for reference or annotation Automate their traversal, if desired Collate into an accurate process map and apply basic analytics Visualize it for process owners and users Provide visual reassembly tools to modify as needed Find common components (by comparing processes) Ensure users can participate and refine data Keep processes dynamic and appropriate to business needs Business Value Improves the efficiency and value of all business processes by exposing the best methods and revealing the inefficiencies. Provides process owners with direct data to improve business outcomes and the supporting data; saves time, improves morale. 15 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation
  • 16. Embrace clouds and consumer IT Leverage IBM’s Cloud Data Centers Understand transition barriers (workloads, application redesign, etc.) Develop financial models for adoption Expand SaaS web pilots Deepen offerings for mobile and cell-bound workers Test client virtualization solutions as downloadable working environment Study and understand task-specific needs of mobile employees for simplified design Model finances of employee choice Users select and manage their own equipment (that meet security standards) Develop more pro-active compliance probes; use analytics to monitor data, not employees Pilot model then deploy when security concerns met Business Value These new delivery methods promise to reduce the cost and increase the flexibility of IT services. Cloud computing and data storage offer new possibilities for integration and security of data. Employee choice give mobile employees the IT options to select the standard devices most suitable to their work style. 16 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation
  • 17. Social energy Ask IBM employees to innovate on energy technology via social networks Channel employee’s ‘need to achieve’ to find innovative solutions Work in the open - build out our external ecosystem network Innovation focus: Global carbon lifecycle monitoring of material supply chains Implementing smart transportation systems Rethinking IBM facilities (location, need, etc.) Global development models in a constrained world Visualizing daily footprint vs. norms Understanding global perspectives Business Value Inspires employees to work a large global issue together over a significant period; provides a focus to social computing and the promise of a more integrated and trusting global community. An excellent source for new business opportunities inside and outside our enterprise. 17 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation
  • 18. Generational hacking Globalization ‘skunk works on team dynamics Allow early tenure IBM teams to select their own IT tools and work styles Instrument and study Development ‘Top-coder’-like spin-offs Services skunk works with visible process and very leveraged compensation Compare, market and study Integrate Social Networking with alumni Keep the conversation open and active Provide visibility into project work that would be compelling Business Value An opportunity to experiment with the work styles of the future and learn the best combination of management and open software platforms that will enable the best in our younger employees. A great opportunity to innovate for IBM and our clients. 18 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation
  • 19. Scenario 19 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation
  • 20. Thank you dnewbold@us.ibm.com 20 2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation 20