The Impact of PEAK OIL on you Bob Raynolds 18 March 2009

Gautier, Oil, Water, and Climate, 2008 Fig 6.1

M King Hubbert In 1956, he predicted the peak year of US oil production to be in 1970

In 1956, he predicted the peak year of US oil production to be in 1970

Hubbert was right Gautier, 2008 Oil, Water and Climate

US Energy Information Administration

Geologists study the Earth

The Goal - ‘Black Gold’ Light Texas Crude Palo Pinto Field North Texas Heavy Texas Crude Humble Oil Field Southwest Texas Petroleum Supplies our Energy Needs Armentrout, AAPG

What is Petroleum? Petroleum: a natural flammable liquid hydrocarbon found beneath the earth’s surface Hydrocarbon: an organic compound made of carbon and hydrogen

Petroleum: a natural flammable liquid hydrocarbon found beneath the earth’s surface

Hydrocarbon: an organic compound made of carbon and hydrogen

Oil Fuels 95% of land, sea, air transport Fuels food production, processing, delivery Provides 40% of our commercial energy Is feedstock for myriad of products

Oil Demand is rising (or was til 2008) Many oil fields are depleting Rate of replacement is diminishing IS A FINITE RESOURCE

Petroleum Products Gasoline - 19.5 gallons A Barrel of Crude Oil Provides: Fuel Oil - 9.2 gallons Jet Fuel - 4.1 gallons Asphalt - 2.3 gallons Kerosene - 0.2 gallons Lubricants - 0.5 gallons Petrochemicals, other products - 6.2 gallons One Barrel = 42 gallons American Petroleum Institute, 1999

Hydrocarbon Trap Types American Petroleum Institute, 1986 Salt Dome Fault Unconformity Pinchout Anticline

Seismic Imaging of Anticline Vibrator Truck (Energy Source) Recording Truck Geophone (Receivers) American Petroleum Institute, 1986 Returning Sound Waves

Seismic Image of Anticline 1000 2000 3000 Milliseconds 1 km Armentrout, AAPG

Regional Geology: Geographic Opportunity Paleogeography Petroleum Systems Exploration Plays Armentrout, AAPG

Directional Drilling Avoids Surface Hazards Gas Oil Water American Petroleum Institute, 1986

after World Book Encyclopedia JMA Armentrout, AAPG

after World Book Encyclopedia Armentrout, AAPG

Global Oil and Gas Fields Gas Oil Oil Armentrout, AAPG

Gautier, Oil, Water, and Climate, 2008 Fig 5.2

Back to the US…

US Energy Information Administration

. . . . . We import 66% of our oil, over half from 5 countries

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. . . . . NIGERIA We import 66% of our oil, over half from 5 countries

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. NIGERIA

. . . . VENEZUELA . NIGERIA We import 66% of our oil, over half from 5 countries

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. VENEZUELA

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. . . MEXICO . VENEZUELA . NIGERIA We import 66% of our oil, over half from 5 countries

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. MEXICO

. VENEZUELA

. NIGERIA

. . Saudi ArabiaA . MEXICO . VENEZUELA . NIGERIA We import 66% of our oil, over half from 5 countries

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. Saudi ArabiaA

. MEXICO

. VENEZUELA

. NIGERIA

. CANADA . Saudi Arabia . MEXICO . VENEZUELA . NIGERIA We import 66% of our oil, over half from 5 countries

. CANADA

. Saudi Arabia

. MEXICO

. VENEZUELA

. NIGERIA

National Research Council, America’s Energy Future, 2008

Gautier, Oil, Water, and Climate, 2008

Railroad Shipping Pattern for US Coal Glenn Harrison, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Glenn Harrison, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Van Vuuren and Riahi, 2008

Hubbert’s Peak BBLS = barrels CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION = past production ULTIMATE = total production, cumulative plus future Hubbert sketched production as bell-shaped curves Hubbert’s ultimate “ Optimistic” ultimate 1970

BBLS = barrels

CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION = past production

ULTIMATE = total production, cumulative plus future

Hubbert sketched production as bell-shaped curves

024839-2 Projected W orld Energy Supplies Projected W orld Energy Supplies 1900 1900 1920 1920 1940 1940 1960 1960 1980 1980 2000 2000 2020 2020 2040 2040 2060 2060 2080 2080 3000 3000 20 20 40 40 60 60 80 80 100 100 100 BILLION BARRELS Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent per Y ear (GBOE) Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent per Y ear (GBOE) Natural Gas Natural Gas Hydroelectric Hydroelectric Crude Oil Crude Oil Solar , W ind Geothermal Nuclear Electric 1993 Coal Coal 24929 Decreasing Fossil Fuels New Technologies World Energy Demand after Edwards, AAPG 8/97 Careers in Oil & Gas Remain Important

US Crude-Oil Production Production is a bell-shaped curve, as Hubbert predicted Dave Rutledge, data from EIA

Production is a bell-shaped curve, as Hubbert predicted

Dave Rutledge, data from EIA

East Texas Oil Field (1930) • Largest “lower-48” field • More than 5 billion barrels recoverable • Largest “lower-48” field • More than 5 billion barrels recoverable Sea Level Sea Level 1,000 1,000 2,000 2,000 3,000 3,000 120°F Seal Reservoir Reservoir Kitchen Kitchen Unconformity T rap Unconformity T rap unconformity unconformity W est W est East East Seal American Association of Petroleum Geologists, 1990

Prudhoe Bay Oil Field (1968) American Association of Petroleum Geologists, 1990 Anticlinal/Unconformity Combination Trap

Petroleum System Processes Accumulation Source Rock

Petrochemical Products Detergents - Cosmetics Fertilizers - Weed Killers Antiseptics - Anesthetics Plastics - Synthetic Fibers Synthetic Rubber Rust Preventatives GASOLINE American Petroleum Institute, 1999 More Than 3,000 Products

Detergents - Cosmetics

Fertilizers - Weed Killers

Antiseptics - Anesthetics

Plastics - Synthetic Fibers

Synthetic Rubber

Rust Preventatives

GASOLINE