Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. DI Annual Conference 15 May 2013 1Dr. Kathrin GoldammerInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. (IASS)The German Energiewende15 May, 2013 for the DI Annual Conference
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. DI Annual Conference 15 May 2013 2Transdisciplinary Panel on Energy Change (TPEC)The “Plattform Energiewende”, TPEC in short, was launched in March 2012 bythe Institute of Advanced Sustainability Studies in Potsdam, Germany, takingon the suggestions of the Ethics Commission for a safe energy supply.www.plattform-energiewende.org
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. DI Annual Conference 15 May 2013 3The German Energy Transition in a NutshellA long history … The concept and the term “Energiewende” was first coined already in 1980(Öko-Institut) Two main elements: exit from nuclear power, entry into renewable energies A feed-in tariff system for renewables first introduced in 1991 Government decisions in 2000-2002: nuclear phase-out extending into the2020s and introduction of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) New energy concept under the current government in September 2010:extension of nuclear operating times combined with ambitious goals foremission reduction, share of renewables and energy efficiency
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. DI Annual Conference 15 May 2013 4The German Energy Transition in a Nutshell… and the Fukushima shock in March 2011: Immediate shutdown of the oldest nuclear power plants and appointmentof an Ethics Commission for a safe energy supply; final report“Deutschlands Energiewende – Ein Gemeinschaftswerk für die Zukunft” inMay, government decision in June 2011: nuclear exit by 2022The Energiewende is more than just a nuclear exit: a completetransformation of the energy system with an extensive legislative packageand ambitious targets for the coming decades: Greenhouse gas emissions: 2020 -40%, 2050 -80% (reference year 1990) Renewables 2050: 60% of energy consumed, 80% of electricity produced Consumption 2050: primary energy -50%, electricity -25 % (ref. 2008)All three corners of the energy triangle need to be taken into account:security of supply, competitiveness and environmental sustainability
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. DI Annual Conference 15 May 2013 5German Energy System Facts, Part I: 600 TWh ProductionSource: Arbeitsgemeinschaft EnergiebilanzenAnnual gross electricity production, including electricity exports, shows regulationchanges, the course of the economy, the weather – and the Energiewende.Renewables Mineral Oil Hard Coal Lignite Gas Nuclear Others
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. DI Annual Conference 15 May 2013 6German Energy System Facts, Part II: Already 20+% RESRenewable energy production has increased steadily and accounts for 22%-share of electricity consumption in 2012; the goal for 2020 being at least 35%.The Federal Ministry of the Economy names the investment sum in renewablesas 23 billion Euros in 2011 (“Monitoringbericht Energie der Zukunft 2012”).Source: Federal Ministry of the Environment BMU2020 target is 35%
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. DI Annual Conference 15 May 2013 7German Energy System Facts, Part III: Technology FavesNatural GasHard CoalNuclearLigniteOthers Solar PVHydroBiomassWind, mainlyonshoreRenewableEnergies in Total
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. DI Annual Conference 15 May 2013 8German Energy System Facts, Part IV: OvercapacityWhen it comes to security of supply, Germany is traditionally well equipped andhighly stable; the installed capacity – especially from conventional powergeneration - is still massive. The policy question here is: what are theirincentives to stay connected to the grid and ready to produce?Renewables All fossils incl. large hydro NuclearSource: BNetzA
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. DI Annual Conference 15 May 2013 9German Energy System Facts, Part V: Price EffectsGerman wholesale electricity market prices are are steadily decreasing due to lowcarbon prices, decreasing global coal prices and greater renewable shares withzero marginal costs.Base calender year 2014, below, now trades at the historically low prices of38 EUR/MWh. How will that refinance investments in new and flexible generation?Source: EEX.de
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. DI Annual Conference 15 May 2013 10German Energy System Facts, Part VI: Regional DifferencesNuclearFossilsRenewablesSource: BNetzAThe installed capacity in GW differsgreatly among the German states;renewables differ in technology.The renewables energies surcharge“EEG-Umlage” is a nationwideaddition to the energy bill for everyelectricity consumer withexemptions for parts of theindustry.Grid charges differ regionally.Accordingly, net benefits and costsare not equally allocated; aninequality debate is thriving.
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. DI Annual Conference 15 May 2013 11Policy issues discussed alongside the EnergiewendeNumerous policy and regulation issues are discussed in Germany right now, themost prominent being: Production incentives and market design: Renewables at zero marginalcosts and a cost-based merit-order market. How do they go together? Security of supply incentives and capacity markets: Conventional powerplant run-times decrease. How do they stay connected? Participation and social equity issues: What’s the Energiewende balance?How can green-green conflicts (e.g. grid extension due to renewableinstallation) and collective efforts be harmonized? This also goes for energyefficiency incentives: not only a burden but great economic potential. EU conflicts: Is Germany offering illegal subsidies for renewables and theindustry? New policy designs need to align with EU regulation.
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. DI Annual Conference 15 May 2013 12The Energiewende Potential – Nationally and Globally Sustainability and climateprotection with reduceddependancy on energy imports Decoupling of emissions andgrowth – if one of the leadingeconomies in the worldsucceeds in this, others aremore likely to follow A leading role in the growingglobal market of energy andenvironmental technologies Job creation at home andmassive business opportunitiesfor the industry… and after all, the transformation to the most advanced energy infrastructurein the world. The Future made in Germany?
Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. DI Annual Conference 15 May 2013 13Many thanks for your attention!www.iass-potsdam.deDr. Kathrin Goldammer, head of „Plattform Energiewende“ at the IASSkathrin.email@example.com