Professor Kevin Anderson - Climate Change: Going Beyond Dangerous

Kevin Anderson Tyndall Centre University of Manchester July 2011 Climate Change: going beyond dangerous … brutal numbers & tenuous hope or cognitive dissonance?

… explore the void between rhetoric and reality on climate change mitigation

Before thinking of responses to climate change what ’s the question?

INTERNATIONAL ‘ To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius , and take action to meet this objective consistent with science and on the basis of equity’ Copenhagen Accord (2009)

‘… must ensure global average temperature increases do not exceed preindustrial levels by more than 2°C ’ EU

UK “ average global temperatures must rise no more than 2°C ” Low Carbon Transition Plan (2009)

So the question is clear: how do we ensure a good chance of staying below 2 °C?

… but why 2 °C ?

2001 2°C ‘Guardrail ’ Dangerous Acceptable

2001 2009

Is 2°C – dangerous or extremely dangerous? Is 1°C the new 2°C?

… what mitigation is necessary to stay at or below 2 °C … how do we split the global carbon budget between Annex 1 (OECD) & non-Annex 1 (non-OECD)? … sticking with 2 ° C

Emission-reduction targets
UK, EU & Global - long term reduction targets
UK ’s 80% reduction in CO 2 e by 2050
EU 60%-80% “ 2050
Bali 50% “ 2050
CO 2 stays in atmosphere for 100+ years,

2050 reduction unrelated to avoiding dangerous climate change (2° C)
cumulative emissions that matter (i.e. carbon budget)
this fundamentally rewrites the chronology of climate change
- from long term gradual reductions
- to urgent & radical reductions
… so

How does this scientifically-credible approach change the challenge we face?

the latest emissions data factor in… what is the scale of the global ‘problem’ we now face?

~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs ~ 3.5% p.a. 2000-2007 ~ 5.6% p.a. 2009-2010 Things are getting worse! Global CO 2 emission trends?

What does:
this failure to reduce emissions
&
the latest science on cumulative emissions
Say about a 2 °C emissions reduction pathway?

early emissions peak = lower emissions reduction/year

2015 peak 2020 peak 2025 peak (Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical Transactions A of the Royal Society. 366. pp.3863-3882) Total greenhouse gas emission pathways

50:50 chance of Dangerous Climate Change (Global) Unprecedented reductions (~ 10% pa from 2020) (Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical Transactions A of the Royal Society. 366. pp.3863-3882)

Even then total decarbonisation by ~2035-45 necessary … and for energy emissions? (with 2020 peak) 13 of 18 scenarios ‘ impossible’ 10-20% annual reductions – even for a high probability of exceeding 2°C

Annual reductions of greater than 1% p.a. have only
“ been associated with economic recession or upheaval”
Stern 2006
UK gas & French 40x nuclear ~1% p.a. reductions
(ex. aviation & shipping)
Collapse Soviet Union economy ~5% p.a. reductions
What are the precedents for such reductions?

Growth rate to peak emissions (1-2% CCC etc, real 3, 4% or higher)
Peak year assumptions (2010-2016; Stern 2015, CCC 2016)
(China & India peak ~2017)
Rate of emission reduction order of magnitude more challenging
Technology (esp. supply) very limited to deliver in time for Annex 1
Socolow ’s Wedges are wrong way round (need early action)
‘ Net ’ Costs meaningless (non-marginal mitigation & adaptation)
Why does this differ from ‘standard’ analyses?

If this all looks too difficult … what about a 4°C future?

For 4 °C & emissions peaking by 2020 a ~ 3.5% p.a. reduction in CO 2 from energy is necessary ... & such a reduction rate is achievable so is aiming for 4°C more realistic?

For 4 °C global mean surface temperature 5 °C - 6°C global land mean … & increase °C on the hottest days of: 6 °C - 8°C in China 8 °C - 10°C in Central Europe 10 °C -12°C in New York In low latitudes 4 °C gives up to 40% reduction in maize & rice as population heads towards 9 billion by 2050

There is a widespread view that a 4 °C future is incompatible with an organised global community, is likely to be beyond ‘ adaptation ’ , is devastating to the majority of eco-systems & has a high probability of not being stable (i.e. 4 ° C would be an interim temperature on the way to a much higher equilibrium level). Consequently … 4°C should be avoided at ‘ all ’ costs

A fair deal for non-OECD (non-Annex 1) … what ’s left for us (OECD/Annex 1) ?

Anderson-Bows: (CO 2 only) (Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011 ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)

Growth 3.5% p.a Peak 2025 Reduction 7% p.a. (2x Stern!) Anderson-Bows: (CO 2 only) (Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011 ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)

Anderson-Bows: (CO 2 only) (Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011 ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)

Peak ~2010 Reduction ∞ % p.a. Anderson-Bows: (CO 2 only) (Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011 ~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)

But even this non-Annex 1 pathway is too optimistic? … focus on China (& India)

China emissions (CO2 only 2010) 7.5GtCO2 (25% global) GDP growth p.a. (ten year trend) 10.5% p.a. India emissions (CO2 only 2010) 1.65GtCO2 (6% global) GDP growth p.a. (ten year trend) 7.4% p.a. China & India emissions & growth

Can this continue…
Shanghai & Beijing GDP/capita ~As OECD
~200M Chinese <$1.25/day
~350M Chinese $10-20/day
China GDP/capita (MER) ~5% OECD
India GDP/capita (MER) ~2% OECD
India GDP/capita is ⅓ that of China GDP/capita (PPP)
… so lots of scope for growth in mean income
& low wage industrialisation

Absolute emissions
If China meets 12 th Five Year Plan trends & promises, then:
2020 emissions 2 x 2010 ~15GtCO2 (i.e. 50% world 2010 figure)
2030 4 x 2010 ~30GtCO2 (i.e. same as world in 2010)

Are these numbers reasonable?
– polled views of Chinese Energy & Climate Change expert community
Emissions expected to peak 2030 (then plateau?)
Minimum growth to peak ~7% (outlier -5% p.a.)
Maximum reduction post peak 3.5% – 5% p.a.
So are these absolute numbers reasonable?
… the ‘Chinese’ think so
… most ‘western’ modelers & scenario builders ‘imply’ not

… add in India

India in 2020 & 2030? Maria Sharmina 13 Sept 2010, Manchester Supervisors: Alice Bows Kevin Anderson Scientific advisor: Carly Mclachlan
Assume India:
~ matches China’s Carbon Intensity of GDP by 2020 (currently 34% lower)
Its GDP trend continues
India 2020 emissions ~3.4GtCO2
(2030 ~6.8 GtCO2 )
Are these numbers reasonable
… the ‘Indian’s’ think so (peak estimate – post 2030)
… most ‘western’ modelers & scenario builders ‘imply’ not

Σ China & India … Maria Sharmina 13 Sept 2010, Manchester Supervisors: Alice Bows Kevin Anderson Scientific advisor: Carly Mclachlan
Emission in 2020 18-19GtCO2 (~⅔ global 2010)
Peak ~2030
Population ~40% of global figure
GDP/capita < 5% OECD in 2010
GDP growth ~9% p.a.

Does all this matter? Currently no (?) global modeling & scenarios take serious note of China & India (ccc analysis & UK budgets premised on China & India peak ~2017) (~all low-carbon IAMs scenarios have 2005 –2016 peaks, & growth 1-2% p.a.) … first impressions are that the numbers outlined here, or anything approaching them, have fundamental implications for mitigation/adaptation analysis & policy, globally and for all nations

2°C … a political & scientific creed ?

“ It is possible to restrict warming to 2°C or less ..with at least a 50% probability .” AVOID (2009) For ~2°C it is necessary “ … the UK cut emissions by at least 80% ... by 2050 . The good news is that reductions of that size are possible without sacrificing the benefits of economic growth and rising prosperity . ” CCC p.xiii & 7 (2009) “… a low stabilisation target of 400ppm CO2e can be achieved at moderate cost … with … a high likelihood of achieving this goal.” ADAM p.19 (2009) Orthodox view

“ … it is difficult to envisage anything other than a planned economic recession being compatible with stabilisation at or below 650ppmv CO 2 e.” Anderson & Bows 2008 “ … the 2015-16 global peaking date (CCC, Stern & ADAM) implies … a period of prolonged austerity for Annex 1 nations and a rapid transition away from existing development patterns within non-Annex 1 nations. ” Anderson & Bows 2011 An Alternative take from the same science

How do two such fundamentally different interpretations of the challenge arise from the same science?

EU In summary
Recent historical emissions sometimes ‘mistaken’ or ‘massaged’
Short-term emission growth seriously down played
Peak year choice ‘Machiavellian’ & dangerously misleading
Reduction rate universally dictated by economists
Emissions floors poorly accounted for or understood
Geoengineering widespread in low carbon scenarios
Annex 1/non-Annex 1 emissions split neglected or hidden
Assumptions about ‘Big’ technology naively optimistic
We have a magician’s view of time & a linear view of problems ??

Have we got the agency to achieve the unprecedented reductions rates linked to an outside chance of 2 ° C ? Before despairing …

10% reduction in emissions year on year
40% reduction by 2015
70% 2020
90+% 2030
To put some numbers on this non-marginal challenge for energy Impossible ? … is living with a 4 ° C global temperature rise by 2050-70 less impossible?

AGENCY
Equity – a message of hope – perhaps?
Technology – how far, how fast & how soon?

Little chance of changing polices aimed at 6.85 billion … but how many people need to make the necessary changes?

Pareto ’ s 80:20 rule 80% of something relates to … 20% of those involved ~50% of emissions from ~1% of population run this 3 times ~80% of emissions from ~20% of population

- who ’ s in the 1%?
Climate scientists
Climate journalists & pontificators
OECD (& other) academics
Anyone who gets on a plane
For the UK anyone earning over £30k

Are we (principally Annex 1 ) sufficiently concerned to … make or have enforced substantial personal sacrifices/changes to our lifestyles NOW ?

Technical AGENCY – another message of hope

Fuel Production, Extraction &Transport Powerstation Transmission Electricity Consumption Light 10 50 54 120 133 The Electricity system Demand opportunities dwarf those from supply in short-term

Car efficiency (without rebound)
UK mean car emissions ~175g/km (new ~150g/km)
EU 2015 plan 130g/km (fleet mean with buy out)
2010 BMW 3 series 160BHP diesel 109g/km
2010 VW, SKODA etc 85-99g/km
1998 Audi A2 3-litre ~ 75g/km
~8 year penetration of new cars … ~90% of vehicle-km
~50% CO 2 reduction by 2020 with no new technology
Reverse recent trends in occupancy ~70% by 2020

To conclude …

Link between cumulative emissions & temp ’ is broadly correct
Non-Annex 1 nations peak emissions by 2025/30
There are rapid reductions in deforestation emissions
Food emissions halve from today ’s values by 2050
No ‘discontinuities’ (tipping points) occur
& Stern/CCC/IEA ’s “feasible” reductions of 3-4% p.a. is achieved
Uncomfortable implications of conservative assumptions
2 °C stabilisation is virtually impossible
4°C by 2050-2070 looks ‘ likely ’ (could be earlier & on the way to 6°C+)
If …

EU So where does this leave us? Manchester Mandate mitigate for 2 °C, plan for 4°C mitigate for 4 °C, plan for 2°C Bows’ reflection … we’re heading for the worst of all worlds

But “… this is not a message of futility, but a wake-up call of where our rose-tinted spectacles have brought us. Real hope, if it is to arise at all, will do so from a bare assessment of the scale of the challenge we now face.” Anderson & Bows. Beyond ‘dangerous climate change Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Jan 2011

… a final message of hope .. “ at every level the greatest obstacle to transforming the world is that we lack the clarity and imagination to conceive that it could be different.” Roberto Unger

1-person living in 3 bedroom houses patio heaters 10 halogen bulbs lighting the kitchen 2 tonne 4WD car to transport 70kg flesh 3miles driving children to school business tycoons with private jets

academics flying to climate change conferences musicians flying to climate change concerts celebrating the excesses of celebrities ‘ right’ to fly & drive when & to wherever we want year-round strawberries hen parties in Prague & birthdays in Barcelona double door refrigerators & home cinema second homes, 2 cars & 3 TVs

& all with up to 9 billion people living on our planet!

Kevin Anderson Tyndall Centre University of Manchester July 2011 Climate Change: going beyond dangerous … brutal numbers & tenuous hope or cognitive dissonance?

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Professor Kevin Anderson - Climate Change: Going Beyond Dangerous

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