A Balanced Approach for LLOs using Group Dynamics for COIN Efficacy © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved Colleen L. Phillips, Ph.D. – ASI, Inc. Norman D. Geddes, Ph.D. – ASI, Inc. Sergey Kanareykin – Center for Advanced Defense Studies

Presentation Agenda Introduction Sociocultural Awareness Six Significant Socicultural Factors Social Structure and Group Life Cycle Implications of the Sociocultural Factors for a COIN Campaign Group Dynamics Computational Cognitive Model Campaign Goals and LLOs to meet Objectives Example of Two Different Campaign Designs Conclusions © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved AEI 2008 Las Vegas, NV July 17, 2008

Introduction

Sociocultural Awareness

Six Significant Socicultural Factors

Social Structure and Group Life Cycle

Implications of the Sociocultural Factors for a COIN Campaign

Group Dynamics Computational Cognitive Model

Campaign Goals and LLOs to meet Objectives

Example of Two Different Campaign Designs

Conclusions

Introduction Military Campaign Plan 5 Logical Lines of Operation (LLOs) Balanced vs. Unbalanced Approach to ordering LLOs © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved Five LLOs of National Power

Military Campaign Plan

5 Logical Lines of Operation (LLOs)

Balanced vs. Unbalanced Approach to ordering LLOs

Hypothesis: If sociocultural factors are embedded into an intelligent system with a group dynamics computational cognitive model that addresses the order of campaign operations, then the campaign objective of regional stability can be met. Assumption: The balanced approach is better than a lop-sided approach in attaining stability. Sociocultural Awareness © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved

Hypothesis:

If sociocultural factors are embedded into an intelligent system with a group dynamics computational cognitive model that addresses the order of campaign operations, then the campaign objective of regional stability can be met.

Assumption:

The balanced approach is better than a lop-sided approach in attaining stability.

Society under same political authority with a common culture, region, and sense of identity Social Structure Arrangement and rearrangement of groups within the operational environment Culture Set of shared ideas, norms, rituals, or codes of behavior Language Set of symbols that people use to communicate Power and Authority Defined by the role that each individual plays within a group and their ability to carry out one’s own will when up against resistance Interests Core beliefs and values that motivate the individual’s or group’s behavior Six Significant Sociocultural Factors © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved

Society

under same political authority with a common culture, region, and sense of identity

Social Structure

Arrangement and rearrangement of groups within the operational environment

Culture

Set of shared ideas, norms, rituals, or codes of behavior

Language

Set of symbols that people use to communicate

Power and Authority

Defined by the role that each individual plays within a group and their ability to carry out one’s own will when up against resistance

Interests

Core beliefs and values that motivate the individual’s or group’s behavior

Arrangement and rearrangement of groups within the operational environment Roles and relationships Group Life Cycle (Tuckman, 1965) Influence groups at the appropriate times Hard problem: finding transition thresholds Social Structure © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved

Arrangement and rearrangement of groups within the operational environment

Roles and relationships

Group Life Cycle (Tuckman, 1965)

Influence groups at the appropriate times

Hard problem: finding transition thresholds

Implications of the Sociocultural Factors for a COIN Campaign Use social dynamics of the group to time the appropriate campaign action Culture and Language will affect the populace opinion of operational effects Assist model with intent interpretation Power and Interest determine whether goals are adopted or rebuffed © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved

Use social dynamics of the group to time the appropriate campaign action

Culture and Language will affect the populace opinion of operational effects

Assist model with intent interpretation

Power and Interest determine whether goals are adopted or rebuffed

Integration of people, intentions, and resources Unified to perform a goal (or a sub-goal) Dominated by local dynamics Coordination of members Establish clear boundaries and roles Exchange of personal or role information These type of activities signal actions to be taken Disband groups: insurgents against the campaign Empower groups: pro-military and for the campaign Increase membership: fence-sitters Implications of Forming © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved

Integration of people, intentions, and resources

Unified to perform a goal (or a sub-goal)

Dominated by local dynamics

Coordination of members

Establish clear boundaries and roles

Exchange of personal or role information

These type of activities signal actions to be taken

Disband groups: insurgents against the campaign

Empower groups: pro-military and for the campaign

Increase membership: fence-sitters

Strong pressure to conform Confrontation of personal biases Peripheral processing of information Escalation of aggression Groups are most vulnerable to fray Recruited for other efforts Nonconformity leads to gaps in operations where insurgents can fill with chaos Disagreements within disenfranchised populace groups may be as strong as hostility towards external military force Implications of Storming © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved

Strong pressure to conform

Confrontation of personal biases

Peripheral processing of information

Escalation of aggression

Groups are most vulnerable to fray

Recruited for other efforts

Nonconformity leads to gaps in operations where insurgents can fill with chaos

Disagreements within disenfranchised populace groups may be as strong as hostility towards external military force

Results in groupthink Perceived equality among members Stated goals are formed Plans to achieve goals are created Feeling of “Mutual Engagement” Group cohesion Ripe for recruiting new members Group is susceptible to new ideas and goals Implications of Norming © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved

Results in groupthink

Perceived equality among members

Stated goals are formed

Plans to achieve goals are created

Feeling of “Mutual Engagement”

Group cohesion

Ripe for recruiting new members

Group is susceptible to new ideas and goals

Operational stage Group pursues project’s and member’s needs Allocation of group’s resources amongst members Members attempt to exert influence on one another Peruse opportunities to join other groups Leadership becomes highly decentralized Can lead to group decay – members defect from the group Rebuilding forces group back to the forming stage Implications of Performing © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved

Operational stage

Group pursues project’s and member’s needs

Allocation of group’s resources amongst members

Members attempt to exert influence on one another

Peruse opportunities to join other groups

Leadership becomes highly decentralized

Can lead to group decay – members defect from the group

Rebuilding forces group back to the forming stage

Group tasks end Group transforms into a different system Group dynamics are affected by contextual dynamics Interactions between the group and its tactical, embedded contexts Successfully embedded contexts result in group learning and adaptation Members pick up knowledge about what worked to get their goals accomplished (and what didn’t) Reflected within a collective knowledge product acquired and shared throughout the group Implications of Adjourning © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved

Group tasks end

Group transforms into a different system

Group dynamics are affected by contextual dynamics

Interactions between the group and its tactical, embedded contexts

Successfully embedded contexts result in group learning and adaptation

Members pick up knowledge about what worked to get their goals accomplished (and what didn’t)

Reflected within a collective knowledge product acquired and shared throughout the group

Group Dynamics Computational Cognitive Model © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved Cultural Beliefs, Desires, and intentions for all Groups in the OA Brigade COA Configurations Reducing 2nd Order Effects DIMEFIL Effects Simulation by PreAct® Holistic Projections Of the Perceived State Of the PMESII and The group’s life cycle Blue Analyst Team Disparate Sources of Knowledge Continuously updated

A Typical PreAct Solution Associate System – An Artificial Intelligence Application Based on ASI’s PreAct ® Cognitive Engine Domain-specific Knowledge Base PreAct ® Situational Data Display Commands Notifications System Actions Proposals User Actions Shared Knowledge

Display Commands

Notifications

System Actions

Proposals

PreAct Libraries Copyright © 2003, nc. © 2008, Confidential and Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved

Capabilities Summary The Commander’s Associate is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved PreAct ® PreAct ® intelligent systems competencies used by the Commander’s Associate: Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor Error Manager Information Manager (Core Libraries)

Capabilities Summary The Commander’s Associate is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Error Manager Information Manager (Core Libraries) Based on input received from various, disparate sources, the Commander’s Associate will use PreAct’s ® Situation Assessor to monitor the operational environment and the sociocultural context

Capabilities Summary The Commander’s Associate is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved (Core Libraries) PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor Error Manager Information Manager Based on group actions received from the Presentation Manager, the Commander’s Associate will use PreAct’s ® Intent Interpreter to interpret the group’s intent without requiring the group to explicitly interact with the Commander’s Associate

Capabilities Summary The Commander’s Associate is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved (Core Libraries) PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor Error Manager Information Manager Based on its sociocultural assessment and its interpretation of the group’s intent, the Commander’s Associate can utilize PreAct’s ® Planner to propose or activate campaign plans based on its knowledge of the group’s life cycle stage

Capabilities Summary The Commander’s Associate is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved (Core Libraries) PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor Error Manager Information Manager As planning progresses, the Commander’s Associate can perform activities on behalf of the commander (reordering LLOs) by utilizing PreAct’s ® Activity Performer

Capabilities Summary The Commander’s Associate is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved (Core Libraries) PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor Error Manager Information Manager The Commander’s Associate will utilize PreAct’s ® Error Manager to prevent or inform the commander from performing procedural errors

Capabilities Summary The Commander’s Associate is an Excellent Use of PreAct ® © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved Information Manager (Core Libraries) PreAct ® Situated Script Library Plan Goal Graph Library Concept Graph Library Activity Performer Intent Interpreter Planner Situation Assessor Error Manager The Commander’s Associate will facilitate the commander’s sociocultural assessment by utilizing PreAct’s ® Information Manager to manage the commander’s display based on the commander’s current intent and sociocultural context

Continuous monitoring of all goals, group intentions, and stages of group development Data collected from and about the operational environment Group structures Cultural aspects Languages with interpretations Human terrain data (ethnographic data) Sensors and satellites Web blogs Group Dynamics Computational Cognitive Model © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved

Continuous monitoring of all goals, group intentions, and stages of group development

Data collected from and about the operational environment

Group structures

Cultural aspects

Languages with interpretations

Human terrain data (ethnographic data)

Sensors and satellites

Web blogs

Campaign goals will be dissected into their respective LLOs Inference engine will justify what actions to take and how to modify the LLOs Snapshot of aggregate reaction from the populace toward military actions Group Dynamics Computational Cognitive Model © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved

Campaign goals will be dissected into their respective LLOs

Inference engine will justify what actions to take and how to modify the LLOs

Snapshot of aggregate reaction from the populace toward military actions

1 st Marine Division Tasked to secure the region and stabilize the violence in OIF II Using campaign design from the 20 th century The lopsided approach Focus was on the first two LLOs Time to direct the advancement of the remaining three LLOs Insurgents had time to put holes in the first two LLOs Example of Two Different Campaign Designs © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved

1 st Marine Division

Tasked to secure the region and stabilize the violence in OIF II

Using campaign design from the 20 th century

The lopsided approach

Focus was on the first two LLOs

Time to direct the advancement of the remaining three LLOs

Insurgents had time to put holes in the first two LLOs

Commander decided to be successful, he had two goals Diminish support for the insurgency Securing the local region just so that the indigenous populace could pursue their interests (economic, cultural, social, and political well-being) Neutralize the insurgents through offensive combat operations Both goals pursued at same time encompassing a theme of information and US intentions Used to sway the populace’s opinion favorably Balanced approach sued to blend two goals to meet local challenges. Example of Two Different Campaign Designs © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved

Commander decided to be successful, he had two goals

Diminish support for the insurgency

Securing the local region just so that the indigenous populace could pursue their interests (economic, cultural, social, and political well-being)

Neutralize the insurgents through offensive combat operations

Both goals pursued at same time encompassing a theme of information and US intentions

Used to sway the populace’s opinion favorably

Balanced approach sued to blend two goals to meet local challenges.

Considerations of the underlying, sociocultural mechanisms can assist in fulfilling the military objective of stability Populace opinion can be shifted by the net effect of multiple, coordinated micro-decisions Evoking all 5 interconnected LLOs within a robust information operations effort The collection of these decisions along all lines of operations support each other in a balance of perception and purpose resulting in Shifting populace toward stability Reducing the insurgent recruiting and disruptive capabilities Resulting in a thriving, resilient, stable community Conclusions © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved

Considerations of the underlying, sociocultural mechanisms can assist in fulfilling the military objective of stability

Populace opinion can be shifted by the net effect of multiple, coordinated micro-decisions

Evoking all 5 interconnected LLOs within a robust information operations effort

The collection of these decisions along all lines of operations support each other in a balance of perception and purpose resulting in

Shifting populace toward stability

Reducing the insurgent recruiting and disruptive capabilities

Resulting in a thriving, resilient, stable community

Please contact me for more information: Colleen L. Phillips, Ph.D. www.asinc.com 770-518-4228 x 216 3650 Brookside Parkway Alpharetta, GA 30022 Questions??? © 2008, Proprietary Information of http://www.asinc.com Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc., All Rights Reserved Thank You!

Please contact me for more information:

Colleen L. Phillips, Ph.D.

www.asinc.com

770-518-4228 x 216

3650 Brookside Parkway

Alpharetta, GA 30022